Lindy's 07 Predictions

[JWCUB]

NL Central

 

1. Cubs

2. Cards

3. Astros

4. Brewers

5. Reds

6. Pirates

 

 

They have Big Z winning the Cy Young :D

 

They also have the Yankees beating the Dodgers in the WS.

[BigbadB]

Link?

 

I don't see the Brewers finishing behind the Astros.

[JWCUB]

Link?

 

I don't see the Brewers finishing behind the Astros.

 

Sorry, I don't have a link. Just bought the magazine this morning.

 

I agree, I wouldn't be suprised to see the Brewers finish ahead of both the Cards and Astros.

[daske17]

I also bought Lindy's (Smith and Street wasn't out yet). I didn't much care for their analysis of teams.

 

Sporting News has the Cubs finishing 3rd behind the Cardinals and Astros.

 

Regardless, the next time these sort of publications are right will be the first time these publications are right. They're nice for some analysis of players, but their predictions are usually off-base.

[JWCUB]

I also bought Lindy's (Smith and Street wasn't out yet). I didn't much care for their analysis of teams.

 

Sporting News has the Cubs finishing 3rd behind the Cardinals and Astros.

 

Regardless, the next time these sort of publications are right will be the first time these publications are right. They're nice for some analysis of players, but their predictions are usually off-base.

 

Smith and Street was out this morning, however I didn't buy it because they had the Cubs 4th. :roll: I refused to give them my money. :lol:

I mean come on, I my be a bit of a homer, but 4th? Thats just insane.

[JWCUB]

Also some interesting projections

 

Big Z 18-9 3.16

Lilly 10-10 4.33

Prior 12-8 3.52

Hill 12-9 3.94

 

 

D Lee .303 33 98

DeRosa .283 11 83

ARam .290 40 116

Izzy .267 3 34

Murton .289 17 69

Soriano .286 41 102

Jones .273 23 76

Barrett .274 14 67

[Magnetic Curses]

Also some interesting projections

 

Big Z 18-9 3.16

Lilly 10-10 4.33

Prior 12-8 3.52

Hill 12-9 3.94

 

 

D Lee .303 33 98

DeRosa .283 11 83

ARam .290 40 116

Izzy .267 3 34

Murton .289 17 69

Soriano .286 41 102

Jones .273 23 76

Barrett .274 14 67

 

wow, those are some fairly optimistic numbers. i wish they'd predict OBP/SLG/OPS, it would make their system a little more realistic, as the stats they give aren't very useful in prognosticating--unless they've predicted numbers like they've predicted for the cubs, in which case we'll score a ton of runs.

[daske17]

Also some interesting projections

 

Big Z 18-9 3.16

Lilly 10-10 4.33

Prior 12-8 3.52

Hill 12-9 3.94

 

 

D Lee .303 33 98

DeRosa .283 11 83

ARam .290 40 116

Izzy .267 3 34

Murton .289 17 69

Soriano .286 41 102

Jones .273 23 76

Barrett .274 14 67

 

102 RBI for Soriano in the leadoff spot? with Izturis in the 8-hole? I don't know, that's crazy talk if I ever heard it.

[CuseCubFan69]

Also some interesting projections

 

Big Z 18-9 3.16

Lilly 10-10 4.33

Prior 12-8 3.52

Hill 12-9 3.94

 

 

D Lee .303 33 98

DeRosa .283 11 83

ARam .290 40 116

Izzy .267 3 34

Murton .289 17 69

Soriano .286 41 102

Jones .273 23 76

Barrett .274 14 67

 

102 RBI for Soriano in the leadoff spot? with Izturis in the 8-hole? I don't know, that's crazy talk if I ever heard it.

 

The pitchers disagree and say don't forget about us! :D

[CubColtPacer]

Also some interesting projections

 

Big Z 18-9 3.16

Lilly 10-10 4.33

Prior 12-8 3.52

Hill 12-9 3.94

 

 

D Lee .303 33 98

DeRosa .283 11 83

ARam .290 40 116

Izzy .267 3 34

Murton .289 17 69

Soriano .286 41 102

Jones .273 23 76

Barrett .274 14 67

 

102 RBI for Soriano in the leadoff spot? with Izturis in the 8-hole? I don't know, that's crazy talk if I ever heard it.

 

Not really-Soriano had 95 RBI's last year getting a .244/.318/.326 out of the 8 spot, and a .183/.243/.269 out of the 9 spot. That should be able to be at least duplicated by Cub hitters, and quite possibly exceeded-also considering the Cubs will likely score more runs than the Nationals did, so Soriano will get more AB's and more RBI chances-I don't see how 102 is crazy at all if he hits 40 HR again.

[Magnetic Curses]

Also some interesting projections

 

Big Z 18-9 3.16

Lilly 10-10 4.33

Prior 12-8 3.52

Hill 12-9 3.94

 

 

D Lee .303 33 98

DeRosa .283 11 83

ARam .290 40 116

Izzy .267 3 34

Murton .289 17 69

Soriano .286 41 102

Jones .273 23 76

Barrett .274 14 67

 

102 RBI for Soriano in the leadoff spot? with Izturis in the 8-hole? I don't know, that's crazy talk if I ever heard it.

 

Not really-Soriano had 95 RBI's last year getting a .244/.318/.326 out of the 8 spot, and a .183/.243/.269 out of the 9 spot. That should be able to be at least duplicated by Cub hitters, and quite possibly exceeded-also considering the Cubs will likely score more runs than the Nationals did, so Soriano will get more AB's and more RBI chances-I don't see how 102 is crazy at all if he hits 40 HR again.

 

plate appearances, plate appearances.

[CubColtPacer]

Also some interesting projections

 

Big Z 18-9 3.16

Lilly 10-10 4.33

Prior 12-8 3.52

Hill 12-9 3.94

 

 

D Lee .303 33 98

DeRosa .283 11 83

ARam .290 40 116

Izzy .267 3 34

Murton .289 17 69

Soriano .286 41 102

Jones .273 23 76

Barrett .274 14 67

 

102 RBI for Soriano in the leadoff spot? with Izturis in the 8-hole? I don't know, that's crazy talk if I ever heard it.

 

Not really-Soriano had 95 RBI's last year getting a .244/.318/.326 out of the 8 spot, and a .183/.243/.269 out of the 9 spot. That should be able to be at least duplicated by Cub hitters, and quite possibly exceeded-also considering the Cubs will likely score more runs than the Nationals did, so Soriano will get more AB's and more RBI chances-I don't see how 102 is crazy at all if he hits 40 HR again.

 

plate appearances, plate appearances.

 

He'll get more of both :D

[BigbadB]

I'm willing to make a bet with just about anybody that Lee will finish with more RBI than Soriano.

[BigbadB]

Not really-Soriano had 95 RBI's last year getting a .244/.318/.326 out of the 8 spot, and a .183/.243/.269 out of the 9 spot. That should be able to be at least duplicated by Cub hitters, and quite possibly exceeded-also considering the Cubs will likely score more runs than the Nationals did, so Soriano will get more AB's and more RBI chances-I don't see how 102 is crazy at all if he hits 40 HR again.

 

If you take away the 46 HR's that Soriano hit last year, which is basically him driving himself in, he had 49 RBI, which is more in line with how many Pierre drives in annually.

 

Luckily, we don't have to take away the 46 HR's that Soriano hit last year, so the production out of the lead off spot is a welcomed addition to this roster.

[Bull]

I'm willing to make a bet with just about anybody that Lee will finish with more RBI than Soriano.

 

Agreed. Many of the predictions out there don't seem to realize DLee was hurt last year.

[goonys evil twin]

I'm willing to make a bet with just about anybody that Lee will finish with more RBI than Soriano.

 

Agreed. Many of the predictions out there don't seem to realize DLee was hurt last year.

 

Or they do realize he was hurt and don't think he'll return to his 2005 form.

 

Lee has passed the 100 RBI mark once in his life, 2005. The reasons are varied. He's often hit 6th, he's had some OBP issues in front of him. But hitting 6th gave him opportunities for RBI, given the quality OBP in front of him. Lee should have better OBP from the 1 and 2 slot this year than he got in 2005. But Soriano's OBP will be affected by HR, which take away RBI opportunity from Lee. And the Cubs 2 hole is far from secured. You've got a pretty wide range of potential OBP from the 2 hole, including Izturis who will probably suck, DeRosa who may or may not be decent, and Murton, who should be pretty good.

 

And with a .300/30 prediction for Lee, you're looking at a guy who will be somewhere between 2005 Lee and all previous Lees. Not to mention, a guy who could miss some time.

 

On the surface I'd expect Lee to surpass Soriano in RBI and be well over 100. But when you look at it a bit, it's not shocking for him to be predicted under that mark.

[JWCUB]

Some more interesting projections

 

 

Astros

 

 

Oswalt 17-9 2.78

Jennings 14-12 4.25

Williams 9-10 4.33

 

 

 

Berkman .309 42 133

Lee .290 39 121

Ensberg .257 26 75

Biggio .252 18 59

 

 

Cards

 

Carpenter 20-9 2.72

Wainwright 13-9 3.95

Looper 11-8 4.45

Wells 6-7 5.02

Reyes 10-9 4.62

 

 

Pujols .342 52 144

Rolen .306 25 91

Edmonds .265 24 82

Duncan .270 19 50

[BigbadB]

There is generally going to a pretty significant difference in the amount of at bats a player who it's 3rd will have than a guy who hits 6th, which affects RBI production.

 

For example, last year the Cubs had 744 PA in the lead off spot, 698 in the 3rd spot and 659 in the 6th spot.

 

In other words, Lee could have easily crossed the 100 RBI plateau if he was hitting higher in the line up with the Marlins in 2003. He also would have done it with the Cubs in 2004 if he hit higher in the order. In 2005, he had the crappiest bunch of hitters hitting in front of him that he possibly could have. He should have had over 130 RBI that year, not 107.

 

A healthy Lee all year will cross 100 RBI easily in 2007.

[goonys evil twin]

A healthy Lee all year will cross 100 RBI easily in 2007.

 

That might be the key though. It's not outlandish to assume he will not play 160 healthy games this year. Coming off a serious wrist injury, Lee could suffer productivity wise due to both his rate stats, and the number of PA.

 

FYI, Lee had 691 PA in 2005, but he had 688 in 2004 and 2002, so his spot in the order isn't going to make up that much of a difference.

[fromthestretch]

Some more interesting projections

 

Cards

 

Carpenter 20-9 2.72

Wainwright 13-9 3.95

Looper 11-8 4.45

Wells 6-7 5.02

Reyes 10-9 4.62

 

 

I honestly think they're being kind on the Wainwright and Looper projections. I really don't see Looper having much success at all as a starter. There really wasn't anything impressive about Wainwright as a starter in the minors in 2004 and 2005. Maybe he'll transition back to that role smoothly after having success as a reliever, but I just don't see him posting an ERA below the 4.2 range.

 

However, I do think Wells (if healthy) and Reyes will be better than those projections.