Will Carroll chat

[David]

If Prior returns to 2004-2005 form, we have an excellent shot at the division.

 

 

If Prior doesn't throw a single pitch, we have an excellent shot at the division.

 

I'd say we have an okay shot at the division if Prior doesn't throw a single pitch. Definitely not excellent, by any means.

 

If Prior pitches like 2003 or even 2004-5, we're probably a lock to win it.

[nilodnayr]

If Prior returns to 2004-2005 form, we have an excellent shot at the division.

 

 

If Prior doesn't throw a single pitch, we have an excellent shot at the division.

 

Unfortunately thats moreso by default than an assembly of a great team.

[Guest]

okay, making the huge assumption that everyone is healthy and able to pitch well, just what in the fark do you do with all these starters? 8 man rotation!

 

Assuming everyone is healthy?

 

Z, Prior, Hill, Lilly, Gooz

 

I like.

 

They aren't going to pay Marquis $7million to not be in the rotation. Like it or not, it's just reality

 

I'm not so sure about that. I believe when Lou says that he's going to have the top 5 guys in the rotation.

 

Nah, Derwood is right. Marquis is going to have to impressively crap the bed for a good amount of time for him to get knocked out of the rotation.

 

I don't think so. Lou doesn't mess around.

[nilodnayr]

okay, making the huge assumption that everyone is healthy and able to pitch well, just what in the fark do you do with all these starters? 8 man rotation!

 

Assuming everyone is healthy?

 

Z, Prior, Hill, Lilly, Gooz

 

I like.

 

They aren't going to pay Marquis $7million to not be in the rotation. Like it or not, it's just reality

 

I'm not so sure about that. I believe when Lou says that he's going to have the top 5 guys in the rotation.

 

Nah, Derwood is right. Marquis is going to have to impressively crap the bed for a good amount of time for him to get knocked out of the rotation.

 

I don't think so. Lou doesn't mess around.

 

If hes moderately average (as in NOT like last year) it doesnt matter if Guz is tearing up AAA. NO manager would replace him.

[Amazing_Grace]

okay, making the huge assumption that everyone is healthy and able to pitch well, just what in the fark do you do with all these starters? 8 man rotation!

 

Assuming everyone is healthy?

 

Z, Prior, Hill, Lilly, Gooz

 

I like.

 

They aren't going to pay Marquis $7million to not be in the rotation. Like it or not, it's just reality

 

I'm not so sure about that. I believe when Lou says that he's going to have the top 5 guys in the rotation.

 

I don't. For the Cubs to bench a guy making that much money would be absolutely unprecedented. Let's remember this is a team that wouldn't bench Alex Gonzalez, Todd Hundley, Shawn Estes, Eric Karros, Mark Grudzielanek. Some of those turned out OK, but for every single one, we had a better option in ST that wasn't given a full time slot. A Cubs team owned by the Tribune will not bench/cut a player making 5M+ and eat his contract voluntarily, not ever, period. There is zero chance of Jason not being in the starting rotation to start the year.

 

However, there's a chance, slim though it be, that Marquis would accept a long relief role gracefully and become one of the highest paid relievers in baseball. There's also a chance that if he stinks bad enough the first half, the Cubs management will be forced to deal him by fan and media pressure a la Todd Hundley. It's also possible that if the team is struggling, Lou will get tired of it and start benching people that aren't performing. Still, I think Marquis is going to have to have an ERA above 5.00 for either of the above to happen. On the other hand, if Marquis's ERA is in the range of 4.50-5.00, I think he becomes someone who's tradeable, if the Cubs are willing to pick up 2-3M of his deal per year.

 

Either way, I think the Cubs will have a chance to correct their mistake. If Marquis performs reasonably well, say a 4.60 ERA, the Cubs have a chance to use that to make a wise trade and improve the team down the stretch or get a prospect for the future. If Marquis performs badly, the Cubs still have a chance to prove that they really meant it last offseason when they said they were committed to winning.

 

Either way, I can't crucify them for trying to get some value out of a 21M investment, no matter how misguided that investment was. I'll give them a half season of leeway. After July, if Marquis is in the rotation and Rich Hill isn't, he needs to go.

 

As for Guzman, I don't know that he's even a factor. If he does well at Iowa, he might be worth more as a trading chip than as a starter this season.

[MPrior]

As for Guzman, I don't know that he's even a factor. If he does well at Iowa, he might be worth more as a trading chip than as a starter this season.

 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 

Guzman seems like, for the first time in a few years, he's ready to pitch, and I really think he could have a major resurgence. I know others on this board think so as well. I want him in Cubs rotation at some point this season, unless he's really stinking things up.

[CubinNY]

As bad as it sounds, and it is very bad (to me anyway), I believe that the Cubs would trade Hill or Guzman before they will trade Marquis.

 

If Marquis really stinks it up I think they would relsease him. But if he pitches @ 5 ERA they will keep him.

[Danny82]

There's absolutely no reason to think that the Cubs would trade Hill.

[soccer10k]

There's absolutely no reason to think that the Cubs would trade Hill.

 

I agree. Guzman I could see, but not with Hill pitching as well as he did last year at the ML level. I just don't see Hendry parting with Hill. Well, barring a blockbuster trade that nets the team a star a la ARod. But I don't see Hendry going out and actively shopping Hill.

[NCCubFan]

They aren't going to pay Marquis $7million to not be in the rotation. Like it or not, it's just reality

They are if he isn't one of the five best. With the pressure on Hendry to win this year to save his job, he simply can't afford to have a nonperforming pitcher in the rotation solely because of salary.

[Soul]

Meh. That's one of those ESPN, "pay us to ignore your non-Yankees/BoSox baseball club," articles.

[Jazz]

More and More, its looking like we could have to more arms in the rotation that spots, which is good since injuries have killed us in the past. Ranking the starters I have:

 

1. Zambrano (no question)

2. Prior (if he plays as well as people have been saying, look out

3. Hill (might be an if, but I'm confident he'll post his late 06 numbers)

4. Lilly (you pay him 11M a year, he better produce at least as good as a #4)

5. Miller (also has been said to be healthy, and has been above average to great in the past. Should be a solid contributor)

6. Guzman (a big if, but his potential and what people have been saying about him excites me. If he's as good as we know he can be, thats maybe another #3 type, maybe even #2)

7. Marquis (I'm not even sure he deserves to be this high, what with the ERA last year, but hey, you pay him handsomely, and he has putout a decent ERA in the past, and coaches like what they see, he might be a darkhorse)

8. Marshall (AAA at the moment, probably a great bargaining chip, he might produce during ST and get on the ML roster though, but probably unlikely)

9. Wood (I know he's supposed to be our ace in the hole reliever, but I still think that it would be a waste of his talent to not try him at starter a few times this year)

10. Marmol (probably going to be designated for the pen as middle relief)