Super Bowl XLI: Bears vs. Colts, Sun 2/4, 5:30 pm CT

[Soul]

I don't understand why you even care if they are respected. If the Bears win the Super Bowl who cares what the "experts" think? At least they get a chance to prove it on the field unlike college football.

 

We have two weeks to discuss this game. Some media articles and who they choose and what they think is going to be prime discussion. It's less a matter of caring what they think, than an observation of a trend in reporting.

 

Well it seems to help the Bears as they seem to like this "I have a chip on my shoulder" thing.

 

I'm concerned that the Bears will have no chance whatsoever if people start picking them. They play much better when disrespected. It's completely clear they listen to the media reports, and Lovie has admitted to using it as material to fire up the troops.

 

I'm praying for widespread disrespect.

[Banedon]

All I have to say about this game is....run, run, run, play action. And then run some more.

 

Also be careful blitzing Manning too much...he can make you pay.

The Bears are not a blitzing team. They haven't been all year. They get the majority of the pressure from their front four, while Briggs, Urlacher, and Hillenmeyer drop back into their coverages. Occasionally you'll see Briggs or Urlacher come on a blitz, but it's pretty rare. They do show blitz quite often and back off into coverage though.

 

And yes, the problem with blitzing the Colts is, if you don't get to Manning, he will make you pay because there is now an open spot somewhere on the field.

 

That's just not true recently. Since Tommie went down, the Bears have struggled getting pressure with the front four, and have had to use different blitz packages. That's part of the reason they struggled defensively down the stretch. They had much more success putting pressure on this past week, but to say they don't blitz much, especially now, just isn't true.

[CubColtPacer]

All I have to say about this game is....run, run, run, play action. And then run some more.

 

Also be careful blitzing Manning too much...he can make you pay.

The Bears are not a blitzing team. They haven't been all year. They get the majority of the pressure from their front four, while Briggs, Urlacher, and Hillenmeyer drop back into their coverages. Occasionally you'll see Briggs or Urlacher come on a blitz, but it's pretty rare. They do show blitz quite often and back off into coverage though.

 

And yes, the problem with blitzing the Colts is, if you don't get to Manning, he will make you pay because there is now an open spot somewhere on the field.

 

How much has Lovie Smith changed his defense from Dungy's defense? Aren't they still basically the same, just the Bears have much better athletes and execution (except for the Colts playoffs :D ). I've heard all this, and this sounds exactly like the Colts. So-which QB gets the advantage by having two weeks to prepare for a defense that their head coach knows very, very well?

[TruffleShuffle]

The problem is, most non-Bears fans buy into the same media garbage and don't recognize the crap they're being spoon-fed. They've seen one or two national games and have made their conclusions about the Bears already.

 

I don't think that's true at all, especially on this board, where fans tend to be more informed than the average fan. From what I've seen, the Bears have the best defense in the league, but a below-average quarterback and an offensive line that isn't always good enough to keep pressure off him - which is when he really struggles.

 

I think the Colts will win because I think they're a bad matchup for the Bears - they're the best passing team in the league, and that's where the Bears can be beat.

 

I hope for the Bears' sake that they don't buy into the "let's just run the ball all game like Jacksonville did" bull. This isn't 1994-95 Nebraska versus Baylor, these are two really good NFL teams playing in the Super Bowl. I'd like for the Super Bowl to be competitive, especially since I won't be able to watch until the second half.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

That's just not true recently. Since Tommie went down, the Bears have struggled getting pressure with the front four, and have had to use different blitz packages. That's part of the reason they struggled defensively down the stretch. They had much more success putting pressure on this past week, but to say they don't blitz much, especially now, just isn't true.

 

Yes, they blitz more now than when they had Harris, but if you watch, you'll see that they still don't blitz nearly as much as other teams. And if the front four is actually getting pressure, they abandon the blitz almost entirely because it's unnecessary. And many times, when they do blitz, it's actually in running situations. The loss of Harris really does throw a wrench into that defense though.

[David]

Just to throw it in, since it was brought up in discussing last week's game too, here are the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings for both teams.

 

 

DVOA Total Efficiency

 

Chicago - #4 (24%)

Indianapolis - #7 (19.4%)

 

DVOA Offense

 

Chicago - #18 (-3.9%)

Indianapolis - #1 (33.8%)

 

DVOA Defense

 

Chicago - #2 (-20.3%)

Indianapolis - #27 (11.3%)

 

DVOA Special Teams

 

Chicago - #1 (7.6%)

Indianapolis - #26 (-3.1%)

 

 

Note - Just to clarify, positive percentages are good on offense and special teams, bad on defense.

 

 

Bears look like a far more balanced team to me.

 

I'm not positive that the Bears will win this game, but I think it's ridiculous for them to be big underdogs. The +220 moneyline on them is looking awfully inviting. I may have to place a wager if it keeps getting higher as people lay money on the Colts. Not that you guys care about my gambling habits. :lol:

[Banedon]

The problem is, most non-Bears fans buy into the same media garbage and don't recognize the crap they're being spoon-fed. They've seen one or two national games and have made their conclusions about the Bears already.

 

I don't think that's true at all, especially on this board, where fans tend to be more informed than the average fan. From what I've seen, the Bears have the best defense in the league, but a below-average quarterback and an offensive line that isn't always good enough to keep pressure off him - which is when he really struggles.

 

I think the Colts will win because I think they're a bad matchup for the Bears - they're the best passing team in the league, and that's where the Bears can be beat.

 

I hope for the Bears' sake that they don't buy into the "let's just run the ball all game like Jacksonville did" bull. This isn't 1994-95 Nebraska versus Baylor, these are two really good NFL teams playing in the Super Bowl. I'd like for the Super Bowl to be competitive, especially since I won't be able to watch until the second half.

 

Actually, New Orleans was the best passing team in the league, and it didn't help them much.

[CuseCubFan69]

The problem is, most non-Bears fans buy into the same media garbage and don't recognize the crap they're being spoon-fed. They've seen one or two national games and have made their conclusions about the Bears already.

 

I don't think that's true at all, especially on this board, where fans tend to be more informed than the average fan. From what I've seen, the Bears have the best defense in the league, but a below-average quarterback and an offensive line that isn't always good enough to keep pressure off him - which is when he really struggles.

 

I think the Colts will win because I think they're a bad matchup for the Bears - they're the best passing team in the league, and that's where the Bears can be beat.

 

I hope for the Bears' sake that they don't buy into the "let's just run the ball all game like Jacksonville did" bull. This isn't 1994-95 Nebraska versus Baylor, these are two really good NFL teams playing in the Super Bowl. I'd like for the Super Bowl to be competitive, especially since I won't be able to watch until the second half.

 

Actually, New Orleans was the best passing team in the league, and it didn't help them much.

 

I think the weather will be a little different in Florida then it was in Chicago though.

Edited January 23, 2007 by CuseCubFan69

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Apart from the stupidity of everyone at ESPN picking the Saints to win last week, I just haven't seen this flat-out disrespecting.

 

18 out of 21 national media analysts predicted the Saints would win. It wasn't just ESPN.

 

Everyone keep doubting, keep doubting...

[BigbadB]

Apart from the stupidity of everyone at ESPN picking the Saints to win last week, I just haven't seen this flat-out disrespecting.

 

It's definitely been going on all year, but personally I really don't care what people say. I actually like it that way.

 

The Bears will just need to remember on Super Bowl Sunday that no lead is safe when Peyton Manning is lining up behind center. Stick with what got us there and DO NOT TURN THE BALL OVER!

[goonys evil twin]

It's unprecedented as far as NFL talk goes? What about the Patriots first Super Bowl (first thing I thought of)? I thought that the Patriots in 2001 were disrespected a lot more than the Bears are right now. Nobody even gave them a chance to be close in that game, while I've heard praise for the Bears (even from the people who are not picking them to win) from at least a couple national outlets just yesterday. Even if you think the Bears disrespect measures up to that Patriots disrespect, this sort of talk is certainly not "unprecedented as far as NFL talk is concerned".

 

For that game, you are probably right, but I was talking about the entire postseason (and really ever since the Vikings game). I admittedly don't recall heavy dissing on the Patriots in the AFC playoffs, I would doubt it reached the level that has been apparant with the Bears. They did play earlier in the season and STL won, plus STL won the SB a couple years before, so there was good reason people expected STL to win.

 

But, I also think it's quite different to be heavy underdogs and to be hated on by the media. The Patriots were receiving some weird post-9/11 "patriotic" good feelings, and the sports media temporarily laid off the highly cynical "oh my god he sucks" type stuff you hear about Grossman today.

[Soul]

The problem is, most non-Bears fans buy into the same media garbage and don't recognize the crap they're being spoon-fed. They've seen one or two national games and have made their conclusions about the Bears already.

 

I don't think that's true at all, especially on this board, where fans tend to be more informed than the average fan. From what I've seen, the Bears have the best defense in the league, but a below-average quarterback and an offensive line that isn't always good enough to keep pressure off him - which is when he really struggles.

 

I think the Colts will win because I think they're a bad matchup for the Bears - they're the best passing team in the league, and that's where the Bears can be beat.

 

I hope for the Bears' sake that they don't buy into the "let's just run the ball all game like Jacksonville did" bull. This isn't 1994-95 Nebraska versus Baylor, these are two really good NFL teams playing in the Super Bowl. I'd like for the Super Bowl to be competitive, especially since I won't be able to watch until the second half.

 

Actually, New Orleans was the best passing team in the league, and it didn't help them much.

 

I think the weather will be a little different in Florida than in Chicago though.

 

Won't be turf though.

[CuseCubFan69]

Apart from the stupidity of everyone at ESPN picking the Saints to win last week, I just haven't seen this flat-out disrespecting.

 

It's definitely been going on all year, but personally I really don't care what people say. I actually like it that way.

 

The Bears will just need to remember on Super Bowl Sunday that no lead is safe when Peyton Manning is lining up behind center. Stick with what got us there and DO NOT TURN THE BALL OVER!

 

I don't think that's true. I think once Grossman started to struggle is when the critics started to come out.

[CubColtPacer]

Just to throw it in, since it was brought up in discussing last week's game too, here are the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings for both teams.

 

 

DVOA Total Efficiency

 

Chicago - #4 (24%)

Indianapolis - #7 (19.4%)

 

DVOA Offense

 

Chicago - #18 (-3.9%)

Indianapolis - #1 (33.8%)

 

DVOA Defense

 

Chicago - #2 (-20.3%)

Indianapolis - #27 (11.3%)

 

DVOA Special Teams

 

Chicago - #1 (7.6%)

Indianapolis - #26 (-3.1%)

 

 

Note - Just to clarify, positive percentages are good on offense and special teams, bad on defense.

 

 

Bears look like a far more balanced team to me.

 

I'm not positive that the Bears will win this game, but I think it's ridiculous for them to be big underdogs. The +220 moneyline on them is looking awfully inviting. I may have to place a wager if it keeps getting higher as people lay money on the Colts. Not that you guys care about my gambling habits. :lol:

 

The huge key in the game is which Colts defense shows up. That one from the regular season, or the one from the playoffs? The Colts are about as balanced as the Bears. The Bears are a below average to average offense with a great defense, and the Colts are a great offense with a below average to average defense. Both special teams do what their teams need them to (the Bears, with their poorer offense need more special teams plays out of their returners, while the Colts need primarily a great kicker and punter, which they have). The key question then becomes which maligned unit shows up more. Does the Colts defense remain as they have been, or does the Bears offense have a big day? Whichever unit wins that battle should probably win the game.

[TruffleShuffle]

The problem is, most non-Bears fans buy into the same media garbage and don't recognize the crap they're being spoon-fed. They've seen one or two national games and have made their conclusions about the Bears already.

 

I don't think that's true at all, especially on this board, where fans tend to be more informed than the average fan. From what I've seen, the Bears have the best defense in the league, but a below-average quarterback and an offensive line that isn't always good enough to keep pressure off him - which is when he really struggles.

 

I think the Colts will win because I think they're a bad matchup for the Bears - they're the best passing team in the league, and that's where the Bears can be beat.

 

I hope for the Bears' sake that they don't buy into the "let's just run the ball all game like Jacksonville did" bull. This isn't 1994-95 Nebraska versus Baylor, these are two really good NFL teams playing in the Super Bowl. I'd like for the Super Bowl to be competitive, especially since I won't be able to watch until the second half.

 

Actually, New Orleans was the best passing team in the league, and it didn't help them much.

 

In passing yards, yes, but Indy is certainly the more efficient passing team. The game was played in weather not conducive to throwing the ball a lot, and the Saints were missing Joe Horn, who's either their best or second-best receiving threat. The Colts have all their receivers healthy and unless there's a front near south Florida, the weather shouldn't slow down the Colts' passing attack.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

The problem is, most non-Bears fans buy into the same media garbage and don't recognize the crap they're being spoon-fed. They've seen one or two national games and have made their conclusions about the Bears already.

 

I don't think that's true at all, especially on this board, where fans tend to be more informed than the average fan. From what I've seen, the Bears have the best defense in the league, but a below-average quarterback and an offensive line that isn't always good enough to keep pressure off him - which is when he really struggles.

 

I think the Colts will win because I think they're a bad matchup for the Bears - they're the best passing team in the league, and that's where the Bears can be beat.

 

I hope for the Bears' sake that they don't buy into the "let's just run the ball all game like Jacksonville did" bull. This isn't 1994-95 Nebraska versus Baylor, these are two really good NFL teams playing in the Super Bowl. I'd like for the Super Bowl to be competitive, especially since I won't be able to watch until the second half.

 

Actually, New Orleans was the best passing team in the league, and it didn't help them much.

 

In passing yards, yes, but Indy is certainly the more efficient passing team. The game was played in weather not conducive to throwing the ball a lot, and the Saints were missing Joe Horn, who's either their best or second-best receiving threat. The Colts have all their receivers healthy and unless there's a front near south Florida, the weather shouldn't slow down the Colts' passing attack.

 

I thought Stokely was out for the year.

[YearofDaCubs]

The problem is, most non-Bears fans buy into the same media garbage and don't recognize the crap they're being spoon-fed. They've seen one or two national games and have made their conclusions about the Bears already.

 

I don't think that's true at all, especially on this board, where fans tend to be more informed than the average fan. From what I've seen, the Bears have the best defense in the league, but a below-average quarterback and an offensive line that isn't always good enough to keep pressure off him - which is when he really struggles.

 

I think the Colts will win because I think they're a bad matchup for the Bears - they're the best passing team in the league, and that's where the Bears can be beat.

 

I hope for the Bears' sake that they don't buy into the "let's just run the ball all game like Jacksonville did" bull. This isn't 1994-95 Nebraska versus Baylor, these are two really good NFL teams playing in the Super Bowl. I'd like for the Super Bowl to be competitive, especially since I won't be able to watch until the second half.

 

Actually, New Orleans was the best passing team in the league, and it didn't help them much.

 

In passing yards, yes, but Indy is certainly the more efficient passing team. The game was played in weather not conducive to throwing the ball a lot, and the Saints were missing Joe Horn, who's either their best or second-best receiving threat. The Colts have all their receivers healthy and unless there's a front near south Florida, the weather shouldn't slow down the Colts' passing attack.

I know that Joe Horn has been hurt a lot this season. Colston was their best threat then came Bush. Horn hasn't been the same since last year when he got injured. Their other receivers picked up the slack nicely.

[CubColtPacer]

The problem is, most non-Bears fans buy into the same media garbage and don't recognize the crap they're being spoon-fed. They've seen one or two national games and have made their conclusions about the Bears already.

 

I don't think that's true at all, especially on this board, where fans tend to be more informed than the average fan. From what I've seen, the Bears have the best defense in the league, but a below-average quarterback and an offensive line that isn't always good enough to keep pressure off him - which is when he really struggles.

 

I think the Colts will win because I think they're a bad matchup for the Bears - they're the best passing team in the league, and that's where the Bears can be beat.

 

I hope for the Bears' sake that they don't buy into the "let's just run the ball all game like Jacksonville did" bull. This isn't 1994-95 Nebraska versus Baylor, these are two really good NFL teams playing in the Super Bowl. I'd like for the Super Bowl to be competitive, especially since I won't be able to watch until the second half.

 

Actually, New Orleans was the best passing team in the league, and it didn't help them much.

 

In passing yards, yes, but Indy is certainly the more efficient passing team. The game was played in weather not conducive to throwing the ball a lot, and the Saints were missing Joe Horn, who's either their best or second-best receiving threat. The Colts have all their receivers healthy and unless there's a front near south Florida, the weather shouldn't slow down the Colts' passing attack.

 

Well, I wouldn't say all our recievers healthy (Stokely is out for the year, and Proehl hasn't played in weeks), but I get your point that the main threats for the Colts are still there. Harrison, Wayne, Clark, and Addai, with Moorehead, Utecht, and Fletcher thrown in. The Colts were definitely the more efficient passing team all year, while the Saints were unbelievable on the big plays. Unfortunately, big plays cannot develop if the QB doesn't get time, and Chicago did a very good job of forcing the ball out of the hand of Brees before he was ready. The Colts are much more of an intermediate passing team than a deep passing team though, and are more prepared for pressure.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

I think special teams are going to play a bigger role in this game than people think. If the Bears can get good field position from their special teams on a consistent basis, it's going to take a lot of pressure off of that offense because Rex will only have to gain a small amount of yardage to get into Gould's range. The Colts are vulnerable on kick returns (from what I've seen, especially last game. I may have just witnessed a bad game though). And if our kick returners can exploit that, I like the Bears odds of putting up a good amount of points.

[CubColtPacer]

The problem is, most non-Bears fans buy into the same media garbage and don't recognize the crap they're being spoon-fed. They've seen one or two national games and have made their conclusions about the Bears already.

 

I don't think that's true at all, especially on this board, where fans tend to be more informed than the average fan. From what I've seen, the Bears have the best defense in the league, but a below-average quarterback and an offensive line that isn't always good enough to keep pressure off him - which is when he really struggles.

 

I think the Colts will win because I think they're a bad matchup for the Bears - they're the best passing team in the league, and that's where the Bears can be beat.

 

I hope for the Bears' sake that they don't buy into the "let's just run the ball all game like Jacksonville did" bull. This isn't 1994-95 Nebraska versus Baylor, these are two really good NFL teams playing in the Super Bowl. I'd like for the Super Bowl to be competitive, especially since I won't be able to watch until the second half.

 

Actually, New Orleans was the best passing team in the league, and it didn't help them much.

 

In passing yards, yes, but Indy is certainly the more efficient passing team. The game was played in weather not conducive to throwing the ball a lot, and the Saints were missing Joe Horn, who's either their best or second-best receiving threat. The Colts have all their receivers healthy and unless there's a front near south Florida, the weather shouldn't slow down the Colts' passing attack.

 

I thought Stokely was out for the year.

 

He is, but he only played in 4 games all year, and in 3 of those he got hurt in the middle of it, so the Colts haven't even ever really tried to run their offense with him this year.

[TruffleShuffle]

yeah plus stokely is a scrub, they replaced him with another generic 3rd WR

[CubColtPacer]

I think special teams are going to play a bigger role in this game than people think. If the Bears can get good field position from their special teams on a consistent basis, it's going to take a lot of pressure off of that offense because Rex will only have to gain a small amount of yardage to get into Gould's range. The Colts are vulnerable on kick returns (from what I've seen, especially last game. I may have just witnessed a bad game though). And if our kick returners can exploit that, I like the Bears odds of putting up a good amount of points.

 

It's both. It was an exceptionally bad game for the kick coverage, but it still is not good on a consistent basis. I'd expect the Bears to get one past the 50, and most of their returns will go to between the 30-40. That will certainly help the Bears if the Colts players cannot return to how they were handling kickoffs in both the Chiefs and Ravens games.

[David]

The problem is, most non-Bears fans buy into the same media garbage and don't recognize the crap they're being spoon-fed. They've seen one or two national games and have made their conclusions about the Bears already.

 

I don't think that's true at all, especially on this board, where fans tend to be more informed than the average fan. From what I've seen, the Bears have the best defense in the league, but a below-average quarterback and an offensive line that isn't always good enough to keep pressure off him - which is when he really struggles.

 

I think the Colts will win because I think they're a bad matchup for the Bears - they're the best passing team in the league, and that's where the Bears can be beat.

 

I hope for the Bears' sake that they don't buy into the "let's just run the ball all game like Jacksonville did" bull. This isn't 1994-95 Nebraska versus Baylor, these are two really good NFL teams playing in the Super Bowl. I'd like for the Super Bowl to be competitive, especially since I won't be able to watch until the second half.

 

I'm not saying that this is the case with you or any of the non-Bears fans on this board, but just with NFL fans in general.

 

The point being missed with the below-average QB generalization is that it's nowhere near the same as your typical below-average QB. Grossman has a pretty good chance to have a great, superstar-level QB game on any given Sunday. It's just that his bad games are so bad that his overall numbers look very pedestrian. That has to be taken into account. It's not like you have Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer (or Kyle Orton) out there. It's a totally different story.

 

Game managers don't have the types of games he has had fairly often. The well-documented problem is consistency. Yet, the media and a good deal of fans continue to want to portray him as a "manage the game and don't lose it for us" quarterback. The Bears, aside from a couple of games (namely the Jets and Saints games) haven't taken this approach with him at all.

 

As for the comment about the Bears being more susceptible to the pass than the run, I can't agree with that at all. The Bears have been at their best stopping the pass. Their fast, smallish defense is more vulnerable (if they're at all vulnerable) to big running backs. Despite giving up a bunch of yards, they get turnovers and force QBs into mistakes with pressure and a ballhawking secondary and linebacking corps (admittedly, they struggled with this for a few weeks recently), and they just held what many considered to be the top offense in the league this year to two TDs.

 

Just for kicks...

 

DVOA

 

Bears against the pass - #2 (-24.5%)

Bears against the run - #5 (-14.7%)

[CubColtPacer]

yeah plus stokely is a scrub, they replaced him with another generic 3rd WR

 

The guy did put up the greatest 3rd receiver season in the history of the NFL and is considered the fastest receiver on the team-I don't know if I'd go that far to call him a scrub. He is a loss though that the Colts have been prepared for, and it just means that the Colts go 2 tight ends more often then usual, and put Wayne in the slot a little more than usual.

 

The Colts will run just a few different formations. If Moorehead is in the game, he will line up on the outside and Wayne in the slot. Sometimes they line up Clark in the slot and Wayne on the outside, and other times they will just have the traditional 2 tight end look. Only on short yardage situations will you see the Colts really ever go to a fullback, and that of course is now Klecko.

[goonys evil twin]

Apart from the stupidity of everyone at ESPN picking the Saints to win last week, I just haven't seen this flat-out disrespecting.

 

It's definitely been going on all year, but personally I really don't care what people say. I actually like it that way.

 

The Bears will just need to remember on Super Bowl Sunday that no lead is safe when Peyton Manning is lining up behind center. Stick with what got us there and DO NOT TURN THE BALL OVER!

 

I don't think that's true. I think once Grossman started to struggle is when the critics started to come out.

 

It started after AZ, although there were seeds earlier (the weak schedule argument). But it really peaked after the Vikings game. The two NY games and the NE loss more or less cancelled things out as far as the media was concerned. But once Rex had a bad game against Minnesota, the national media pounced. People ignored Rex's really good games and decided that his bad games were the norm, and the best we could hope for was a Rex that didn't make too many mistakes (as opposed to the possibility that he could actually go something like 20/30 for 250 yards and 3 TDs 0 INTs).

 

A lot of Bears fans fell for this same storyline. For some reason, Grossman's ceiling lowered dramatically. Grossman isn't your typical "average" QB, who has a lot of average games. He's highly inconsistent (which obviously isn't good), but capable of greatness that most average QB's have no chance of achieving. But since his really high QB rating games and his really bad QB rating games averaged out to a relatively low rating, people label him as something he clearly is not.

 

But anyway, after Grossman crapped the bed against the Vikes, the tide really turned heavily. Prior to that game, lots of people rated the Bears in the top 3 in the league, after that game, they were regularly relegated to worse than whatever hot flavor of the week NFC team got top billing. By season's end, the #1 team in the NFC was rated behind at least 2 (Philly/NO) other teams in their league, and many people rated them behind Dallas.