Is There Such A Thing As "Just A Bad Year"?

[CubsWin]

In the latest Cubs mailbag on Cubs.com, Carrie Muskat reports that the Cubs "expect" Ryan Dempster to bounce back from his terrible year in '06.

 

I know, statistically speaking, there are anomalous seasons all the time. Some good, some bad. The good ones we look at as "career years" that are unlikely to be repeated. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Soriano is coming off of one of those type seasons. But that's another thread. Is there any reason outside of assuming that his poor performance was an anomaly, to expect that Dempster will pitch like he did in '04? Its tough to say if '04 was the exception or the rule for Dempster because it was his first full year as a closer, but judging by his previous performances as a starter, it would appear that '04 was the anomalous "career year" and '05 was closer to the norm.

 

Is there such a thing as a bad "career year" that a player can be expected to bounce back from even without making any noticeable adjustments?

 

Also, what do people expect from Dempster this season and why? Thanks.

[Soriano12]

you lost me at Carrie Muskat.

[Garwilly]

you lost me at Carrie Muskat.

 

Does anybody else think it is about time to lay off Muskat?

[Butterscup1679666578]

I expect and hope that Dempster isn't even on this team come April. Cotts, Wood, Howry, Eyre, Wuertz, and Ohman is a great pen IMO.

[Balsa]

I think Dempster will be traded before the season starts.

 

If he's on the team, he'll probably be given the closer role at the beginning, before he blows a couple leads and Kerry Wood steps in.

[Abe Frohman]

I clearly remember Dempster showing up to Spring Training in pretty bad shape last year. Perhaps the contract took away his hunger, no pun intended.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'd rather see Eyre traded over Dempster, quite honestly.

 

We have plenty of lefty arms in the bullpen and Eyre, quite frankly, isn't as good as some of stats make him out be last year. I think you could net a lote more spinning him right than Dempster...trading Dempster would probably save you money but not get you as much in return. Eyre gone will save you money (maybe more) and likely get you a better return talent-wise and the Cubs can pretty easily replace him.

 

I do see some stock in the vague "bad year" for Dempster. A lot of us here commented on how erratic his usage was under Dusty in 2006 and how he did look a lot better the rare times he was used on something resembling a consistent schedule. I have a hunch there were times he was throwing hurt, too. Just a guess on my part, since his pitch selection seem to alter or be more limited than usual at times. Throw in his wife having a baby and the team just stinking as bad as it did and, to me, it doesn't seem like too much of a stretch to say the guy had a bad year.

 

Yeah, I know that's a lot of intangibles I just rattled off, but that's how I see it. Dempster had a lot of success in 2005, for much of the season. I'm not much into the idea of a "career year" for guys and then they just completely fall off unless they were "juicing" or have some kind of serious injury. I don't think he's one of the mythical "elite closers," but I think he's a lot better than what we saw in 2006. In the end, if he gets traded, I'm not going to lose much sleep over it. If he stays, I think there's a damn good chance he can improve enough to be traded later for a better return. Like I said, I'd much rather see Eyre spun off right now. A lot of teams need relief help right now, and a guy like Eyre packaged right could probably move the right deals moreso than Dempster at this point.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

you lost me at Carrie Muskat.

 

Does anybody else think it is about time to lay off Muskat?

 

I think it's time to stop tossing an r into her name, but her awfulness bears repeating so her columns aren't taken seriously.

[Drew Doughty]

There is some reason to hope Dempster will rebound. His LOB% was at an unusually low mark of 63.3% That's well below average and it's a significant drop from his previous two seasons. It's an 8% drop from his career mark. An improvement there could be expected. His BABIP was also unusually high despite a drop in line drive percentage.

 

So his season could have been a statistical anomaly. I think he should be low on the depth chart though. Wood, Eyre, Howry, and Wuertz should all be ahead of him as closer/setup guys.

[CuseCubFan69]

I think Dempster will be traded before the season starts.

 

If he's on the team, he'll probably be given the closer role at the beginning, before he blows a couple leads and Kerry Wood steps in.

 

I want him to be dominate and then the Cubs trade him and Wood comes in and is even more dominate!

 

I know many have mentioned this but I think it was the lack of consistant work for Dempster that was his downfall. Is he a great closer or has the potential to be one, I don't think so. But, I think he could be a good to very good one. If he can keep his WHIP down by improving his ball/strike ratio I think he'll be just fine.

[BigbadB]

I'm a little more comfortable than others with Dempster going into 2007. Looking at his game log, his usage patterns were really out there. It's also pretty obvious that when he issues walks, the end result is not good.

 

A closer is going to be more consistent with regular work. The Cubs of 2006 gave him sporadic work consistently.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm a little more comfortable than others with Dempster going into 2007. Looking at his game log, his usage patterns were really out there. It's also pretty obvious that when he issues walks, the end result is not good.

 

A closer is going to be more consistent with regular work. The Cubs of 2006 gave him sporadic work consistently.

 

Agreed.

 

I like the idea of given him most, if not all, of the closing spots early on, getting him on a semi-regular schedule and hopefully seeing his performances improve, making him a valuable trading chip down the line. There's no need to rush Wood into the closer's role right away.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I'd like to trade all three of Dempster, Jones and Izturis because each is a mediocre player, and each is a waste of money. $14MM combined for those three. Dempster is replaceable by any of several of our current relievers, Izturis can be replaced by Theriot, and Jones can be replaced with Soriano in RF and TBD guy in CF via trade.

 

Andruw Jones makes what, $12MM in 2007? I'm just sayin'....

[Sammy Sofa]

I'd like to trade all three of Dempster, Jones and Izturis because each is a mediocre player, and each is a waste of money. $14MM combined for those three. Dempster is replaceable by any of several of our current relievers, Izturis can be replaced by Theriot, and Jones can be replaced with Soriano in RF and TBD guy in CF via trade.

 

Andruw Jones makes what, $12MM in 2007? I'm just sayin'....

 

Jones may not set the world on fire, but right now his production is a steal of a bargain on this market. Until the Cubs have a replacement lined up that can almost certainly at least match Jones' production the team would be worse off trading him just to trade him. Dempster's value is also lower than it could be, so moving him now really won't net much in return and I wouldnt be surprised if the Cubs still had to pay some of his salary to get a team to bite. Use him reguarly and let him hopefully increase his value. Like you said, we've got plenty of arms in the pen to slide in if he's in trouble. I'd still much rather trade Eyre at this point...he's really nowhere near as good as some people seem to think he is here and he costs a lot, just like Dempster. Unlike Dempster, however, he didn't have any of the very obvious meltdowns and could still be shipped off for some decent return (like packaged with Jones and others for a good OFer). He can be just as easily replaced in the bullpen as Dempster and ultimately doesn't add too terribly much with the other lefties we have lurking around on the team and in the farm system.

[CuseCubFan69]

I'd like to trade all three of Dempster, Jones and Izturis because each is a mediocre player, and each is a waste of money. $14MM combined for those three. Dempster is replaceable by any of several of our current relievers, Izturis can be replaced by Theriot, and Jones can be replaced with Soriano in RF and TBD guy in CF via trade.

 

Andruw Jones makes what, $12MM in 2007? I'm just sayin'....

 

If those 3 could bring in a major impact SS or OF I'd be thrilled.

[goonys evil twin]

I would say there is such a thing as a bad year that guys can bounce back from. I wouldn't expect a 40 year old to bounce back from a down year, but it happens all the time. Whether it's related to an injury, moving teams, or something else, pretty good players can have down seasons. Generally, I don't think you're really good guys will ever have truly bad seasons, but in the case of somebody like Dempster, who has been wildly inconsistent over the course of his career (even his walk rates have varied, from as low as below 4 to as high as above 6 per 9 innings. I think Dempster could have a decent year next season, or he could be bad. It's tough to say for certain. That's part of the trouble with relievers, and why it's risky to sign them longterm.

[CuseCubFan69]

Bert Saberhagan was an interesting case of this to me. He would look great one year and the next year be below average.

[goonys evil twin]

Bert Saberhagan was an interesting case of this to me. He would look great one year and the next year be below average.

 

That's pitching. So few guys are good year-in and year-out.

 

Saberhagen had 4 of 5 years over 200 IP before age 26, then never did it again. He had a few effective years after that, but in somewhat shortened seasons.

[CuseCubFan69]

Bert Saberhagan was an interesting case of this to me. He would look great one year and the next year be below average.

 

That's pitching. So few guys are good year-in and year-out.

 

Saberhagen had 4 of 5 years over 200 IP before age 26, then never did it again. He had a few effective years after that, but in somewhat shortened seasons.

 

True pitching can be more inconsistant, especially because of usage.

[BigbadB]

I'd like to trade all three of Dempster, Jones and Izturis because each is a mediocre player, and each is a waste of money. $14MM combined for those three. Dempster is replaceable by any of several of our current relievers, Izturis can be replaced by Theriot, and Jones can be replaced with Soriano in RF and TBD guy in CF via trade.

 

Andruw Jones makes what, $12MM in 2007? I'm just sayin'....

 

If I was Atlanta and I had the choice of Andruw Jones for 12m and Jacque Jones, Ryan Dempster and Cesar Izturis for 14m, I think I'd pick Andruw Jones every time.

[UK1679666180]

In the latest Cubs mailbag on Cubs.com, Carrie Muskat reports that the Cubs "expect" Ryan Dempster to bounce back from his terrible year in '06.

 

I know, statistically speaking, there are anomalous seasons all the time. Some good, some bad. The good ones we look at as "career years" that are unlikely to be repeated. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Soriano is coming off of one of those type seasons. But that's another thread. Is there any reason outside of assuming that his poor performance was an anomaly, to expect that Dempster will pitch like he did in '04? Its tough to say if '04 was the exception or the rule for Dempster because it was his first full year as a closer, but judging by his previous performances as a starter, it would appear that '04 was the anomalous "career year" and '05 was closer to the norm.

 

Is there such a thing as a bad "career year" that a player can be expected to bounce back from even without making any noticeable adjustments?

 

Also, what do people expect from Dempster this season and why? Thanks.

 

'04 was his rehab year, '05 was his strong year...

 

Hard to say with Dempster, spent most of his time as an inconsistent starter with great stuff and disappointing results (one good year ERA in the 3.6s I believe).

 

So far out of the pen, you have one good year and one bad one.

 

You're going to see a different Dempster more times than not out there, his career has been like this as a starter and as a reliever.

[RammyFanny]

you lost me at Carrie Muskat.

 

Saw that coming from a mile away...

 

 

Yet I still :lol: 'd.

[cheapseats]

 

You're going to see a different Dempster more times than not out there, his career has been like this as a starter and as a reliever.

 

Looking only at his 2005 and 2006 seasons as a reliever, it certainly seems like we saw two different Dempsters. If you look at his peripherals and batted ball data, though, while he was a little better in 2005, he wasn't that much better than he was in 2006. Verdict: same pitcher, very different results.

[UK1679666180]

 

You're going to see a different Dempster more times than not out there, his career has been like this as a starter and as a reliever.

 

Looking only at his 2005 and 2006 seasons as a reliever, it certainly seems like we saw two different Dempsters. If you look at his peripherals and batted ball data, though, while he was a little better in 2005, he wasn't that much better than he was in 2006. Verdict: same pitcher, very different results.

 

Dempster in '05 was a much better reliever than starter. He had a handful of starts, then switched to the pen and was much better from there on out.

[cheapseats]

 

You're going to see a different Dempster more times than not out there, his career has been like this as a starter and as a reliever.

 

Looking only at his 2005 and 2006 seasons as a reliever, it certainly seems like we saw two different Dempsters. If you look at his peripherals and batted ball data, though, while he was a little better in 2005, he wasn't that much better than he was in 2006. Verdict: same pitcher, very different results.

 

Dempster in '05 was a much better reliever than starter. He had a handful of starts, then switched to the pen and was much better from there on out.

 

Good point, UK. I haven't separated his relief stats from his stats as a starter. I shouldn't have forgotten about Dempster's period as a starter in 2005.

 

I was in the 7th row behind home plate at Wrigley on April 27, 2005 for what must have been one of his last starts. He had control problems early and the Reds jumped out to a big lead.

 

Derrek Lee hit two homers, IIRC, and the Cubs tied the game. Corey Patterson then hit a walk off homerun, my best memory of Corey as a Cub.

 

And then I went to the United Center and watched the Bulls beat the Wizards in a playoff game.

 

What a great day. :)