Its Scary Quiet

[Tracer Bullet]

Boys, as much as i hate to admit it, i think we are done- Hearing Hendry talk about Pie's defense in CF i think he is just going to stand pat with our lineup as is-let me just say yuck- other than a Cliff floyd signing to take at bats away from Murton, i just dont think Hendry is planning on anything else- you guys get the same feeling?

 

Who knows, maybe the silence is Hendry putting together a blockbuster for Tejada :D , but i doubt it-

 

Dave van Dyck is speculating it's done. And all the talk of Pie (by writers, Lou and others) makes me think they really want Felix to win the CF spot this year.

 

I don't see them signing Floyd and keeping Jones, so, it's probably one or the other.

 

What if they just keep everything intact from here. That would make LF a platoon of Murton and Jones, which would be really productive. And CF would be a mix of Pie, Jones, Pagan and maybe Theriot, which could end up anywhere from terrible to fantastic. And if Soriano needs a day off here and there, Jones plays there.

 

I just don't like the idea of Jones still being on the team next year. He isn't likely to repeat his numbers, so I'd prefer to deal him now. I also don't like the idea of a platoon w/ Murton since there are more RHP in the world than LHP. Murton has enough experience that we should run him out there every day. If he struggles mightily for 3 months, maybe he's not meant to be an every day player. But if he rarely faces RHP, we're not going to know that.

 

The days of Jones, Pie, Izturis, Blanco, P in the 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 spots are going to be really tough. Especially b/c that lineup also features DeRosa in the 2-hole most likely. Yikes.

 

Jones put up an .833 OPS in 2006. If he put up those numbers as a CF, he would have ranked 8th in the majors among regular centerfielders, behind Mike Cameron and ahead of Torii Hunter. His three year avg. OPS is .777, which would have ranked him 11th in the majors among centerfielders in 2006, behind Eric Byrnes and ahead of Curtis Granderson. His contract isn't that bad considering the market. If the Cubs can get good talent in return for him, they should make a deal. But having Jones in CF in 2007 doesn't necessarily handicap this team offensively.

 

I not saying Jacques killed us last year, I'm saying I don't think he'll repeat those numbers. I'd rather trade high now than see him repeat his '04/'05 numbers next year. And he wasn't really lights out defensively in right, so I'd prefer he not patrol CF next year.

[TheDude]

At the moment, they are not considering such an arrangement. They see Theriot as their fifth infielder and someone who can play the outfield every now and then.

 

There are going to be a LOT of question marks with this team if this is really what they plan to open the season with.

 

What team out there doesn't have question marks?

[cheapseats]

Bruce, help me out please. It wasn't long ago that everyone (including most posters) thought that Ronny Cedeno was the next greatest thing. What happened to him offensivly and did the Cubs give up on him? I can understand the rookie mental mistakes causing some errors but somebody who hits about .370 at AAA couldn't of forgot how to swing a bat that quick. Please shed some light and I thankyou in advance.

 

I'm not Bruce, and I can't tell you whether the Cubs gave up on him, but Cedeno's track record in the minors never indicated he'd be a good hitter. His OPS was below .600 in 2002 and 2003, for example.

 

His one good year in the minors consisted of only 245 at-bats. His BABIP in AAA was .393, a number almost impossible to sustain.

 

His OBP has always been driven by his batting average. At one point last year, he was seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance than any other qualified batter in MLB.

 

I can't really comment on the likelihood of his defense improving, but it's doubtful that he'll ever become even an adequate hitter in MLB.

[Amazing_Grace]

I agree with the OP.

 

Omniscient Peruvian?

Ominous parable?

Overweight priest?

Obnoxious pric...............?

 

Oops. Original Poster. Sorry :P

[BigbadB]

This is a good post. To be fair, I got a lot of e-mails after the December 2002 trade of Hundley to the Dodgers for Grudz and Karros. Most people said Grudz sucked, he was past his peak performance and it was downhill from there. Well, ol' Grudz has done pretty well for hisself. He's not a great player, but he proved a lot of his detractors wrong. Izturis is their guy. We'll see what he can do healthy.

 

I seem to recall a lot of people being happy with this deal. Getting anything for Hundley was a thing of beauty.

[Bruce Miles]

This is a good post. To be fair, I got a lot of e-mails after the December 2002 trade of Hundley to the Dodgers for Grudz and Karros. Most people said Grudz sucked, he was past his peak performance and it was downhill from there. Well, ol' Grudz has done pretty well for hisself. He's not a great player, but he proved a lot of his detractors wrong. Izturis is their guy. We'll see what he can do healthy.

 

I seem to recall a lot of people being happy with this deal. Getting anything for Hundley was a thing of beauty.

 

Oh yeah, a lot of people were happy. It was a great deal. The point I was making is that, nevertheless, I got a lot of e-mails saying Grudz would be no good.

[BigbadB]

At the moment, they are not considering such an arrangement. They see Theriot as their fifth infielder and someone who can play the outfield every now and then.

 

There are going to be a LOT of question marks with this team if this is really what they plan to open the season with.

 

What team out there doesn't have question marks?

 

Of course all teams have question marks. I emphasized A LOT because I think the Cubs will have more than their fair share of them.

[Soul]

Boys, as much as i hate to admit it, i think we are done- Hearing Hendry talk about Pie's defense in CF i think he is just going to stand pat with our lineup as is-let me just say yuck- other than a Cliff floyd signing to take at bats away from Murton, i just dont think Hendry is planning on anything else- you guys get the same feeling?

 

Who knows, maybe the silence is Hendry putting together a blockbuster for Tejada :D , but i doubt it-

 

Dave van Dyck is speculating it's done. And all the talk of Pie (by writers, Lou and others) makes me think they really want Felix to win the CF spot this year.

 

I don't see them signing Floyd and keeping Jones, so, it's probably one or the other.

 

What if they just keep everything intact from here. That would make LF a platoon of Murton and Jones, which would be really productive. And CF would be a mix of Pie, Jones, Pagan and maybe Theriot, which could end up anywhere from terrible to fantastic. And if Soriano needs a day off here and there, Jones plays there.

 

I just don't like the idea of Jones still being on the team next year. He isn't likely to repeat his numbers, so I'd prefer to deal him now. I also don't like the idea of a platoon w/ Murton since there are more RHP in the world than LHP. Murton has enough experience that we should run him out there every day. If he struggles mightily for 3 months, maybe he's not meant to be an every day player. But if he rarely faces RHP, we're not going to know that.

 

The days of Jones, Pie, Izturis, Blanco, P in the 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 spots are going to be really tough. Especially b/c that lineup also features DeRosa in the 2-hole most likely. Yikes.

 

Jones put up an .833 OPS in 2006. If he put up those numbers as a CF, he would have ranked 8th in the majors among regular centerfielders, behind Mike Cameron and ahead of Torii Hunter. His three year avg. OPS is .777, which would have ranked him 11th in the majors among centerfielders in 2006, behind Eric Byrnes and ahead of Curtis Granderson. His contract isn't that bad considering the market. If the Cubs can get good talent in return for him, they should make a deal. But having Jones in CF in 2007 doesn't necessarily handicap this team offensively.

 

I not saying Jacques killed us last year, I'm saying I don't think he'll repeat those numbers. I'd rather trade high now than see him repeat his '04/'05 numbers next year. And he wasn't really lights out defensively in right, so I'd prefer he not patrol CF next year.

 

He really didn't finish all that much higher than his career numbers:

 

2006:

 

.285/.334/.499

 

Career:

 

.280/.328/.461

 

A move from the stronger AL to a weaker NL could certainly be argued to account for that. I don't see why you are so convinced his numbers are going to drop. 30 is the new 20, you know :wink:

[BigbadB]

Oh yeah, a lot of people were happy. It was a great deal. The point I was making is that, nevertheless, I got a lot of e-mails saying Grudz would be no good.

 

I almost always give some benefit to a hitter who plays half their games in an extreme pitcher's park. I haven't done it for Izturis, which probably isn't fair. But, I don't think I'm being completely unfair, because he has missed a significant amount of time over the last 2 years, and that time could definitely hurt his chances of matching what he did in 2004, which is almost a mirror image of Juan Pierre's 2006 season and not very good offensive output for someone earning a major league paycheck.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Boys, as much as i hate to admit it, i think we are done- Hearing Hendry talk about Pie's defense in CF i think he is just going to stand pat with our lineup as is-let me just say yuck- other than a Cliff floyd signing to take at bats away from Murton, i just dont think Hendry is planning on anything else- you guys get the same feeling?

 

Who knows, maybe the silence is Hendry putting together a blockbuster for Tejada :D , but i doubt it-

 

Dave van Dyck is speculating it's done. And all the talk of Pie (by writers, Lou and others) makes me think they really want Felix to win the CF spot this year.

 

I don't see them signing Floyd and keeping Jones, so, it's probably one or the other.

 

What if they just keep everything intact from here. That would make LF a platoon of Murton and Jones, which would be really productive. And CF would be a mix of Pie, Jones, Pagan and maybe Theriot, which could end up anywhere from terrible to fantastic. And if Soriano needs a day off here and there, Jones plays there.

 

I just don't like the idea of Jones still being on the team next year. He isn't likely to repeat his numbers, so I'd prefer to deal him now. I also don't like the idea of a platoon w/ Murton since there are more RHP in the world than LHP. Murton has enough experience that we should run him out there every day. If he struggles mightily for 3 months, maybe he's not meant to be an every day player. But if he rarely faces RHP, we're not going to know that.

 

The days of Jones, Pie, Izturis, Blanco, P in the 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 spots are going to be really tough. Especially b/c that lineup also features DeRosa in the 2-hole most likely. Yikes.

 

Jones put up an .833 OPS in 2006. If he put up those numbers as a CF, he would have ranked 8th in the majors among regular centerfielders, behind Mike Cameron and ahead of Torii Hunter. His three year avg. OPS is .777, which would have ranked him 11th in the majors among centerfielders in 2006, behind Eric Byrnes and ahead of Curtis Granderson. His contract isn't that bad considering the market. If the Cubs can get good talent in return for him, they should make a deal. But having Jones in CF in 2007 doesn't necessarily handicap this team offensively.

 

I not saying Jacques killed us last year, I'm saying I don't think he'll repeat those numbers. I'd rather trade high now than see him repeat his '04/'05 numbers next year. And he wasn't really lights out defensively in right, so I'd prefer he not patrol CF next year.

 

He really didn't finish all that much higher than his career numbers:

 

2006:

 

.285/.334/.499

 

Career:

 

.280/.328/.461

 

A move from the stronger AL to a weaker NL could certainly be argued to account for that. I don't see why you are so convinced his numbers are going to drop. 30 is the new 20, you know :wink:

 

Jacque needs to be in CF if the team stays the way it is now.

[BigbadB]

Jacque needs to be in CF if the team stays the way it is now.

 

Absolutely. It would be absolutely silly to platoon Jones and Murton and have Pagan patrolling CF.

[rawaction]

I don't know why people think Jacque won't repeat. Wrigley is a great place for LH hitters. He may not repeat his career power numbers, but he was a very patient hitter his last year in Minnesota. If he can get some of that back with a new hitting coach that stresses that type of thing, I'm sure he can put up similar numbers.

[Danny82]

Oh yeah, a lot of people were happy. It was a great deal. The point I was making is that, nevertheless, I got a lot of e-mails saying Grudz would be no good.

 

I almost always give some benefit to a hitter who plays half their games in an extreme pitcher's park. I haven't done it for Izturis, which probably isn't fair. But, I don't think I'm being completely unfair, because he has missed a significant amount of time over the last 2 years, and that time could definitely hurt his chances of matching what he did in 2004, which is almost a mirror image of Juan Pierre's 2006 season and not very good offensive output for someone earning a major league paycheck.

 

But more tolerable than Pierre's production because he won't be doing it from the lead off spot and actually gives the team plus defense at his position (which Pierre couldn't do).

[don_kessinger_was_good]

The Cubs, whether you like it or not, are happy with Izturis

 

Oh, we don't like it. You can rest assured on that.

 

Why exactly is Hendry so enamored with him? That's what I don't understand.

 

Izturis is just another in a long line of slick fielding/no hit SS's who come and go in this league, and are soon forgotten.

 

I wasn't fond of his offensive output pre-injury. He's 2 years removed from that offensive output and may never match it again.

 

The Cubs apparently feel they'll get enough offensive production from Soriano, Lee, Barrett, Ramirez and others that whatever Izturis gives them will be fine as long as he continues to play defense as he has in the past.

 

This makes me so frustrated because if Hendry would use some ingenuity, there are significant bats out there that could be attained in trade. He has a lot of trading chips that some teams would value highly--young pitchers and a couple of available and interesting young position players (Moore, Patterson). And he has the $$ to help teams looking to clear payroll.

 

Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones, Miguel Tejada, Pat Burrell (if he waives his NTC) and Vernon Wells are the impact bats potentially available in trade. Each of those teams, with the exception of Toronto, needs pitching.

 

On the next level of production down, there's Ryan Church, Wily Mo Pena, Coco Crisp, Aaron Rowand, and Tampa's gazillion OF-ers. Each of those teams is looking for pitching help too.

 

Myself, if Hendry doesn't want to go too far, I would like to at least acquire Church and use him in a CF platoon with Felix. That would take some of the pressure off Felix to perform, would improve the bench, and would not be expensive in terms of players. Sign Floyd if you must for the bench and to take some ABs from Murton (bad idea), spin Jones somewhere for peanuts, and give RF to Soriano. Done.

 

My bold move would be the Church deal, skip Floyd, spin Jones, and send Matt Murton, Sean Marshall and Will Ohman to the Reds for Dunn, but that's just me, I'm permalocked on the Dunn bandwagon.

[cubbyvirus00]

great post ^^^^

[KingCubsFan]

The Cubs, whether you like it or not, are happy with Izturis

 

Oh, we don't like it. You can rest assured on that.

 

Why exactly is Hendry so enamored with him? That's what I don't understand.

 

Izturis is just another in a long line of slick fielding/no hit SS's who come and go in this league, and are soon forgotten.

 

I wasn't fond of his offensive output pre-injury. He's 2 years removed from that offensive output and may never match it again.

 

The Cubs apparently feel they'll get enough offensive production from Soriano, Lee, Barrett, Ramirez and others that whatever Izturis gives them will be fine as long as he continues to play defense as he has in the past.

 

This makes me so frustrated because if Hendry would use some ingenuity, there are significant bats out there that could be attained in trade. He has a lot of trading chips that some teams would value highly--young pitchers and a couple of available and interesting young position players (Moore, Patterson). And he has the $$ to help teams looking to clear payroll.

 

Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones, Miguel Tejada, Pat Burrell (if he waives his NTC) and Vernon Wells are the impact bats potentially available in trade. Each of those teams, with the exception of Toronto, needs pitching.

 

On the next level of production down, there's Ryan Church, Wily Mo Pena, Coco Crisp, Aaron Rowand, and Tampa's gazillion OF-ers. Each of those teams is looking for pitching help too.

 

Myself, if Hendry doesn't want to go too far, I would like to at least acquire Church and use him in a CF platoon with Felix. That would take some of the pressure off Felix to perform, would improve the bench, and would not be expensive in terms of players. Sign Floyd if you must for the bench and to take some ABs from Murton (bad idea), spin Jones somewhere for peanuts, and give RF to Soriano. Done.

 

My bold move would be the Church deal, skip Floyd, spin Jones, and send Matt Murton, Sean Marshall and Will Ohman to the Reds for Dunn, but that's just me, I'm permalocked on the Dunn bandwagon.

Can we trade Moore and Patterson to the Devil Rays for Kazmir while we're at it?

The problem is that our minor league system just isn't very good right now, and we really don't have the prospects to trade for these players. If Jones or Wells were being shopped (which they're not), I guarantee their teams could get more than pitchers like Marshall or Marmol. Felix Pie isn't even among the 10 CF prospects on some lists, and he's our #1 prospect. Give Wilken a few years, and he'll fix what Stocksill broke.

Edited December 14, 2006 by KingCubsFan

[CubinNY]

The Cubs, whether you like it or not, are happy with Izturis

 

Why exactly is Hendry so enamored with him? That's what I don't understand.

 

Izturis is just another in a long line of slick fielding/no hit SS's who come and go in this league, and are soon forgotten.

 

Hendry likes him because he likes that long line of slick field SS. He has acquired about 30% of those that have been in baseball at one point or another during his regime.

 

His love for Izturis is because of his defensive reputation and the fact that he doesn't strike out. Hendry values the ability to make outs when putting the ball in play. Over 162 games, Izturis will probably strike out less than 75 times. That's not Juan Pierre, or even Ichiro, but it's low. It's lower than guys like Royce Clayton.

 

Hendry is also the type of guy that will judge a player on what he has done at his peak, and just assume that's what he'll do as a Cub. And at his peak Izturis hit a lot of singles and had an acceptable average.

 

Izturis is only 26 years old. Is it really that bad to assume he can reach prior peaks, and possibly surpass them?

 

(note: asking this question doesn't make me an Izturis lover or Hendry defender...in fact you could simply replace Izturis with any other 26 year old hitter and apply the same question)

 

This is a good post. To be fair, I got a lot of e-mails after the December 2002 trade of Hundley to the Dodgers for Grudz and Karros. Most people said Grudz sucked, he was past his peak performance and it was downhill from there. Well, ol' Grudz has done pretty well for hisself. He's not a great player, but he proved a lot of his detractors wrong. Izturis is their guy. We'll see what he can do healthy.

 

No disrespect to Bruce, But Grudz worst season in the majors is pretty damn close to Izturis' best. Izturis has had 5 full seasons in the majors and only managed to a respectable OBP once (.330). He's a black hole in the line up.

 

IMO, Hendry subscribeds to outdated theories born in the dead ball era of the 1970s and 80s. The chief of which is that the SS is there only for his defense.

 

It stinks, but I knew when Hendry traded Maddux for him he'd be the Cubs guy for the forseable future.

Edited December 14, 2006 by CubinNY

[fromthestretch]

I don't know why people think Jacque won't repeat. Wrigley is a great place for LH hitters. He may not repeat his career power numbers, but he was a very patient hitter his last year in Minnesota. If he can get some of that back with a new hitting coach that stresses that type of thing, I'm sure he can put up similar numbers.

 

Even if he reverts back to his three-year average, he's still going to be far from the bottom when it comes to centerfielders. If you stick him in CF and he proves he can handle it adequately, it might even increase his trade value.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Church doesn't really have a platoon split, but both him and Pie are LH so I don't think a platoon is very feasible.

 

Maybe this is the year Izturis's BABIP numbers aren't crazy unlucky, like in '04 when he actually put up some non-humiliating production.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

My bold move would be the Church deal, skip Floyd, spin Jones, and send Matt Murton, Sean Marshall and Will Ohman to the Reds for Dunn, but that's just me, I'm permalocked on the Dunn bandwagon.

Can we trade Moore and Patterson to the Devil Rays for Kazmir while we're at it?

The problem is that our minor league system just isn't very good right now, and we really don't have the prospects to trade for these players. If Jones or Wells were being shopped (which they're not), I guarantee their teams could get more than pitchers like Marshall or Marmol. Felix Pie isn't even among the 10 CF prospects on some lists, and he's our #1 prospect. Give Wilken a few years, and he'll fix what Stocksill broke.

 

If you're claiming Murton, Marshall and Ohman would not be fair value for Dunn given his question marks, I would beg to differ. A lot of people like Marshall's upside, he's shown in brief stretches he can be a successful ML pitcher. Ohman is a quality LH relief specialist, every team needs one as do the Reds, while we happen to have three (if you include Rapada). And we all know what folks think of Murton.

[KingCubsFan]

My bold move would be the Church deal, skip Floyd, spin Jones, and send Matt Murton, Sean Marshall and Will Ohman to the Reds for Dunn, but that's just me, I'm permalocked on the Dunn bandwagon.

Can we trade Moore and Patterson to the Devil Rays for Kazmir while we're at it?

The problem is that our minor league system just isn't very good right now, and we really don't have the prospects to trade for these players. If Jones or Wells were being shopped (which they're not), I guarantee their teams could get more than pitchers like Marshall or Marmol. Felix Pie isn't even among the 10 CF prospects on some lists, and he's our #1 prospect. Give Wilken a few years, and he'll fix what Stocksill broke.

 

 

If you're claiming Murton, Marshall and Ohman would not be fair value for Dunn given his question marks, I would beg to differ. A lot of people like Marshall's upside, he's shown in brief stretches he can be a successful ML pitcher. Ohman is a quality LH relief specialist, every team needs one as do the Reds, while we happen to have three (if you include Rapada). And we all know what folks think of Murton.

I missed Murton. That is more reasonable

[SAMMYWHO]

Bruce, help me out please. It wasn't long ago that everyone (including most posters) thought that Ronny Cedeno was the next greatest thing. What happened to him offensivly and did the Cubs give up on him? I can understand the rookie mental mistakes causing some errors but somebody who hits about .370 at AAA couldn't of forgot how to swing a bat that quick. Please shed some light and I thankyou in advance.

 

I'm not Bruce, and I can't tell you whether the Cubs gave up on him, but Cedeno's track record in the minors never indicated he'd be a good hitter. His OPS was below .600 in 2002 and 2003, for example.

 

His one good year in the minors consisted of only 245 at-bats. His BABIP in AAA was .393, a number almost impossible to sustain.

 

His OBP has always been driven by his batting average. At one point last year, he was seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance than any other qualified batter in MLB.

 

I can't really comment on the likelihood of his defense improving, but it's doubtful that he'll ever become even an adequate hitter in MLB.

 

I'm not sure I'm ready to give up on him yet. I think if he can play third he wouldn't be a bad option for the bench. I'm just not ready to trade him for a bag of balls. I realize he was lost at the plate most of last year but his "career year" was back and forth from AAA to the majors and he showed alot of promise. I realize he didn't have the patience we all would like to see but that was under different management.

I'm hoping Hendry can now see that we need to improve the OBP as a team and I think hiring Oakland's old hitting coach will definately be an improvement. Alot of players including Barrett, Jones, Ramirez and Cedeno should see improvements in their patience with the philosophy of looking for their pitch.

The OBP problem can't get any worse can it? I'm hoping that alone with what Bruce said will help Cedeno get back to his call up year.

[cheapseats]

 

I'm not sure I'm ready to give up on him yet. I think if he can play third he wouldn't be a bad option for the bench. I'm just not ready to trade him for a bag of balls. I realize he was lost at the plate most of last year but his "career year" was back and forth from AAA to the majors and he showed alot of promise. I realize he didn't have the patience we all would like to see but that was under different management.

I'm hoping Hendry can now see that we need to improve the OBP as a team and I think hiring Oakland's old hitting coach will definately be an improvement. Alot of players including Barrett, Jones, Ramirez and Cedeno should see improvements in their patience with the philosophy of looking for their pitch.

The OBP problem can't get any worse can it? I'm hoping that alone with what Bruce said will help Cedeno get back to his call up year.

 

I really don't know what I'd do with him if I were GM.

 

I would have traded him while he was busy putting up numbers in AAA that (I think) he can't reproduce, but since that's no longer an option, I don't know how to best use him.

 

If the Cubs are serious about improving OBP, it needs to start at the lowest level of the minors. Oakland does a good job of teaching plate discipline throughout their system.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't remember many people who thought Cedeno was ever the next great thing.

[XZero771679666304]

I don't remember many people who thought Cedeno was ever the next great thing.

 

IIRC, aside from one great year, he has been pretty mediocre. I have always been pretty skeptical of him, but thought he was a better option than Perez. As it turns out that wasn't even entirely accurate.

 

I wouldn't bat an eyelash if the Cubs got rid of him.