Cubs Sign Marquis to 3/21

[Guest]

It's funny that I don't see anyone else lamenting Hendry's attempt to go from worst to first all in one offseason, and in a hideously unfavorable market. I really would have thought there would be some support for a retooling year.

I think it was quite possible to go from worst to first. But in my mind we just didn't go about spending a fortune correctly. In fact, the four exact moves I called for in Sept were Soriano (for 2B), Drew, Daisuke and Schmidt. Admittedly, I don't know if was ever possible for us to get Schmidt, but we could have done the other three plus Lilly and not spent a whole lot more money (assuming you account for the posting fee in a different budget, that is).

 

I think that would have put us pretty comfortably #1 in the division and serious WS contenders.

 

Soriano

Drew

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Murton

Barrett

Izzy

 

 

Z

Daisuke

Lilly

Hill

Prior/Miller/et al.

 

51 million just to negotiate with Matsuzaka and five guaranteed years for Drew are as ridiculous as anything I have seen this offseason.

Speculation is that Nippon Ham will refund some of that fee to pay for the contract. And while most revenues are shared, I've heard that there are creative ways for Boston to get additional revenue out of Japan without going through the general revenue sharing pool.

 

Five guaranteed years is tough, but that OBP and power from a lefty stick would look awfully good replacing Derosa in our lineup for this season.

[Soriano12]

Rotoworld has this to say:

 

Jason Marquis-S-Cardinals Dec. 9 - 10:43 pm et

 

 

Jason Marquis three-year deal with the Cubs will be worth $21 million, according to the Chicago Tribune.

 

It's a big commitment to someone who might not be any better than Wade Miller, Angel Guzman or Sean Marshall. If Mark Prior is healthy come spring training, none of those guys will have any chance of winning a rotation spot. Neal Cotts is also likely bullpen bound, which could mean that Will Ohman will be traded.

Source: Chicago Tribune

 

If 3/21 can be confirmed as the actual deal #'s , I'll stop bitching.

[Guest]

I think it was quite possible to go from worst to first. But in my mind we just didn't go about spending a fortune correctly. In fact, the four exact moves I called for in Sept were Soriano (for 2B), Drew, Daisuke and Schmidt. Admittedly, I don't know if was ever possible for us to get Schmidt, but we could have done the other three plus Lilly and not spent a whole lot more money (assuming you account for the posting fee in a different budget, that is).

 

I would be a happy camper if that would have happened. Real happy.

 

The only thing I might quibble about is that I don't think the Cubs had the finacial wearwithall to pay the ridicilous posting fee for Daisuke.

I didn't say it would be cheap. :D

[XZero771679666304]

It's funny that I don't see anyone else lamenting Hendry's attempt to go from worst to first all in one offseason, and in a hideously unfavorable market. I really would have thought there would be some support for a retooling year.

I think it was quite possible to go from worst to first. But in my mind we just didn't go about spending a fortune correctly. In fact, the four exact moves I called for in Sept were Soriano (for 2B), Drew, Daisuke and Schmidt. Admittedly, I don't know if was ever possible for us to get Schmidt, but we could have done the other three plus Lilly and not spent a whole lot more money (assuming you account for the posting fee in a different budget, that is).

 

I think that would have put us pretty comfortably #1 in the division and serious WS contenders.

 

Soriano

Drew

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Murton

Barrett

Izzy

 

 

Z

Daisuke

Lilly

Hill

Prior/Miller/et al.

 

51 million just to negotiate with Matsuzaka and five guaranteed years for Drew are as ridiculous as anything I have seen this offseason.

Speculation is that Nippon Ham will refund some of that fee to pay for the contract. And while most revenues are shared, I've heard that there are creative ways for Boston to get additional revenue out of Japan without going through the general revenue sharing pool.

 

Five guaranteed years is tough, but that OBP and power from a lefty stick would look awfully good replacing Derosa in our lineup for this season.

 

The numbers would, but the fact remains the man has never had consecutive seasons of 140 GP in his career. You could count out his broken hand season, but for a guy with such an illustrious history of being fragile, you just can't. It's not like Derrek Lee who had 6 consecutive seasons of 155+ games played. 140 games is pushing it for a full time player as it is. Boston will rue the day they gave J.D. that contract.

[jjgman21]

Speculation is that Nippon Ham will refund some of that fee to pay for the contract. And while most revenues are shared, I've heard that there are creative ways for Boston to get additional revenue out of Japan without going through the general revenue sharing pool.

 

 

I heard some about this too, but also heard that the RedSox got busted for it and MLB was none too pleased. there's also been reports of tampering with JD Drew during the season last year, which is also a no-no; and if true, perhaps an insite into whether there was ever really a chance to sign him.

[Guest]

Speculation is that Nippon Ham will refund some of that fee to pay for the contract. And while most revenues are shared, I've heard that there are creative ways for Boston to get additional revenue out of Japan without going through the general revenue sharing pool.

 

 

I heard some about this too, but also heard that the RedSox got busted for it and MLB was none too pleased. there's also been reports of tampering with JD Drew during the season last year, which is also a no-no; and if true, perhaps an insite into whether there was ever really a chance to sign him.

I doubt MLB does anything about it, though. Reports are that Ichiro's team did the same thing, so the precedent is there that they did nothing at that time.

 

The tampering thing smacks of sour grapes from Coletti to me.

[jjgman21]

 

The numbers would, but the fact remains the man has never had consecutive seasons of 140 GP in his career. You could count out his broken hand season, but for a guy with such an illustrious history of being fragile, you just can't. It's not like Derrek Lee who had 6 consecutive seasons of 155+ games played. 140 games is pushing it for a full time player as it is. Boston will rue the day they gave J.D. that contract.

 

I was a big defender of Drew and his injuries his first trip through FA, and even a little bit this offseason, but didn't the guy miss big chunks of two different seasons due to beanballs, and another due to a crash into a fence or something like that? maybe there is something to an acutal "brittleness" argument. the things that cause him extensive injury doesn't seem all that out of the ordinary with the game of baseball, but they hurt Drew.

[cbbryan]

Speculation is that Nippon Ham will refund some of that fee to pay for the contract. And while most revenues are shared, I've heard that there are creative ways for Boston to get additional revenue out of Japan without going through the general revenue sharing pool.

 

 

I heard some about this too, but also heard that the RedSox got busted for it and MLB was none too pleased. there's also been reports of tampering with JD Drew during the season last year, which is also a no-no; and if true, perhaps an insite into whether there was ever really a chance to sign him.

 

I think MLB has been very clear on the posting process and has repeatedly said that the posting money can not be reduced or given back to the MLB team. It can also not be a parting gift, or bonus to the player.

[frostwyrm]

It's funny that I don't see anyone else lamenting Hendry's attempt to go from worst to first all in one offseason, and in a hideously unfavorable market. I really would have thought there would be some support for a retooling year.

I think it was quite possible to go from worst to first. But in my mind we just didn't go about spending a fortune correctly. In fact, the four exact moves I called for in Sept were Soriano (for 2B), Drew, Daisuke and Schmidt. Admittedly, I don't know if was ever possible for us to get Schmidt, but we could have done the other three plus Lilly and not spent a whole lot more money (assuming you account for the posting fee in a different budget, that is).

 

I think that would have put us pretty comfortably #1 in the division and serious WS contenders.

 

Soriano

Drew

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Murton

Barrett

Izzy

 

 

Z

Daisuke

Lilly

Hill

Prior/Miller/et al.

I still would have gone the retooling route. I initially supported signing Soriano, but that was when I thought he'd get a Furcal type deal to play 2B or CF and bat 2nd or 5th. Giving him $136M to play a corner OF spot and bat leadoff is crazy.

[cbbryan]

Speculation is that Nippon Ham will refund some of that fee to pay for the contract. And while most revenues are shared, I've heard that there are creative ways for Boston to get additional revenue out of Japan without going through the general revenue sharing pool.

 

 

I heard some about this too, but also heard that the RedSox got busted for it and MLB was none too pleased. there's also been reports of tampering with JD Drew during the season last year, which is also a no-no; and if true, perhaps an insite into whether there was ever really a chance to sign him.

I doubt MLB does anything about it, though. Reports are that Ichiro's team did the same thing, so the precedent is there that they did nothing at that time.

 

The tampering thing smacks of sour grapes from Coletti to me.

 

I believe Tampa Bay had a problem w/ Lugo as well. Not sure of the details though.

[CubsWin]

Rotoworld has this to say:

 

Jason Marquis-S-Cardinals Dec. 9 - 10:43 pm et

 

 

Jason Marquis three-year deal with the Cubs will be worth $21 million, according to the Chicago Tribune.

 

It's a big commitment to someone who might not be any better than Wade Miller, Angel Guzman or Sean Marshall. If Mark Prior is healthy come spring training, none of those guys will have any chance of winning a rotation spot. Neal Cotts is also likely bullpen bound, which could mean that Will Ohman will be traded.

Source: Chicago Tribune

 

If 3/21 can be confirmed as the actual deal #'s , I'll stop bitching.

You can stop your bitching.

 

ChicagoSports.com[/url]"]The Cubs filled out their rotation when they came to terms with free agent Jason Marquis on a three-year, $21 million deal

ESPN.com[/url]"]The Chicago Cubs aren't done spending money just yet. Free-agent pitcher Jason Marquis has agreed to a three-year contract with the team, according to multiple reports. A source told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that the deal is for $21 million.

FoxSports.com[/url]"]Marquis and the Cubs are negotiating a three-year contract, a person with knowledge of the talks said Saturday, speaking on condition of anonymity because no announcement had yet been made. Terms have not yet been agreed to - the deal is likely to be in the $20 million range.

There are other reports out there. This is just a sampling I choose because they seem to be coming from their own independent sources.

[Laura]

The tampering thing smacks of sour grapes from Coletti to me.

 

Except it's the second recent example of whispers about Boston tampering (Lugo being the other). (beaten by cbbryan!)

 

From a business standpoint, why not tamper? When's the last time a tampering complaint was filed, much less investigated? I think all MLB does -- if they even undergo an investigation and find cause to act -- is impose a token fine. Big whoop, with a top payroll, it's just part of the price of doing business and you still have your players.

[jjgman21]

The tampering thing smacks of sour grapes from Coletti to me.

 

Except it's the second recent example of whispers about Boston tampering (Lugo being the other). (beaten by cbbryan!)

 

From a business standpoint, why not tamper? When's the last time a tampering complaint was filed, much less investigated? I think all MLB does -- if they even undergo an investigation and find cause to act -- is impose a token fine. Big whoop, with a top payroll, it's just part of the price of doing business and you still have your players.

 

one reason is there are only 29 other people that you transact business with, and I imagine there are cliques within that group. you don't want to drive down the talent pool from which you can draw.

[Mephistopheles]

 

Anyways, I hate the signing.

 

Glad to have you on board. Whether I agree or disagree with your argument you always have an encyclopedia of stats to back it.

 

Now give me the juicy numbers on why Marquis sucks, so I can use that in addtition to my "melodramatic posts"

 

8-)

 

I'll just quote mitchell lichtman at btf. he works for the cardinals (at least i think he still does)

 

Mitchell Lichtman[/url]"]Yes, between the Cards defense and offense (pumping up his win totals), this is the classic case of a horrible pitcher looking mediocre to a really stupid team. Marquis is a replacement level pitcher who has somehow managed to get lots of ML innings, similar to Estes and a few others in recent years. Don't let even his ERA+ in 04 and 05 fool you as that is heavily influenced by defense which is not accounted for of course in the ERA+ formula, not to mention the difference between FIP or DIPS ERA and regular ERA (which can be heavily influenced by luck - BABIP). Here are Marquis' NERC for the last 5 years. NERC is a component ERA adjusted for park, opponent, and defense, and then normalized to 4.00 (for that league only). It does not do a DIPS (BABIP) adjustment. The average starter has an NERC of around 4.20 (reliever around 3.90).

 

2002 5.29

2003 4.11

2004 4.80

2005 4.80

2006 5.07

 

He is he quintessential definition of a replacement pitcher. In fact, I use around 4.80 as replacement level as the true talent of the worst starters in baseball is around that (.6 runs per 9 innings worse than an average starter). His monetary value is next to nothing and I don't mean that figuratively or hyperbolicly.

 

So far and off the top of my head, this, Meche, and Carlos Lee are the worst signings of the off-season. This is the worst, by far, of the three. What makes Marquis such a bad pitcher, and which is unlikely to change (true-talent-wise of course), is that his HR rate is terrible, his walk rate is not even average, and his K rate is terrible as well. You can't get any worse than that and still have a job in the major leagues.

[Laura]

one reason is there are only 29 other people that you transact business with, and I imagine there are cliques within that group. you don't want to drive down the talent pool from which you can draw.

 

Then I suppose it's all just one big coincidence.

[jjgman21]

one reason is there are only 29 other people that you transact business with, and I imagine there are cliques within that group. you don't want to drive down the talent pool from which you can draw.

 

Then I suppose it's all just one big coincidence.

 

 

whaaa? I was giving a reason why GMs wouldn't tamper. I'm the one that brought up the tampering issue in the first place.

[Laura]

one reason is there are only 29 other people that you transact business with, and I imagine there are cliques within that group. you don't want to drive down the talent pool from which you can draw.

 

Then I suppose it's all just one big coincidence.

 

 

whaaa? I was giving a reason why GMs wouldn't tamper. I'm the one that brought up the tampering issue in the first place.

 

And I was responding that it must be a big coincidence, and one that will likely never be investigated beyond rumorville because the same cliques that would discourage tampering would also discourage investigation of suspected tampering.

[brinoch]

Well. This is quite possibly the worst signing imaginable. At least since Estes.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Well. This is quite possibly the worst signing imaginable. At least since Estes.

 

Agreed, whether it's 3/21 or 3/28.

[Andy]

Well. This is quite possibly the worst signing imaginable. At least since Estes.

 

Agreed, whether it's 3/21 or 3/28.

Psh, screw this pessimism, I'm going to Cubs.com for a month to talk about our World Series-winning team in 2007.

 

:D

[Guest]

Well. This is quite possibly the worst signing imaginable. At least since Estes.

 

Agreed, whether it's 3/21 or 3/28.

Psh, screw this pessimism, I'm going to Cubs.com for a month to talk about our World Series-winning team in 2007.

 

:D

enough, there's a thread for that already.

[ltb]

Well. This is quite possibly the worst signing imaginable. At least since Estes.

 

yeah, i've read through a lot of this thread, and this sums up my thoughts very well.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Well, the Cardinals didn't offer Marquis arbitration so they won't get a supplemental pick for him. If the Cubs signed Suppan, they'd have had to give up their third round pick and the Cardinals would have gotten a supplemental pick.

 

Yay?

[CubinNY]

 

Anyways, I hate the signing.

 

Glad to have you on board. Whether I agree or disagree with your argument you always have an encyclopedia of stats to back it.

 

Now give me the juicy numbers on why Marquis sucks, so I can use that in addtition to my "melodramatic posts"

 

8-)

 

I'll just quote mitchell lichtman at btf. he works for the cardinals (at least i think he still does)

 

Mitchell Lichtman[/url]"]Yes, between the Cards defense and offense (pumping up his win totals), this is the classic case of a horrible pitcher looking mediocre to a really stupid team. Marquis is a replacement level pitcher who has somehow managed to get lots of ML innings, similar to Estes and a few others in recent years. Don't let even his ERA+ in 04 and 05 fool you as that is heavily influenced by defense which is not accounted for of course in the ERA+ formula, not to mention the difference between FIP or DIPS ERA and regular ERA (which can be heavily influenced by luck - BABIP). Here are Marquis' NERC for the last 5 years. NERC is a component ERA adjusted for park, opponent, and defense, and then normalized to 4.00 (for that league only). It does not do a DIPS (BABIP) adjustment. The average starter has an NERC of around 4.20 (reliever around 3.90).

 

2002 5.29

2003 4.11

2004 4.80

2005 4.80

2006 5.07

 

He is he quintessential definition of a replacement pitcher. In fact, I use around 4.80 as replacement level as the true talent of the worst starters in baseball is around that (.6 runs per 9 innings worse than an average starter). His monetary value is next to nothing and I don't mean that figuratively or hyperbolicly.

 

So far and off the top of my head, this, Meche, and Carlos Lee are the worst signings of the off-season. This is the worst, by far, of the three. What makes Marquis such a bad pitcher, and which is unlikely to change (true-talent-wise of course), is that his HR rate is terrible, his walk rate is not even average, and his K rate is terrible as well. You can't get any worse than that and still have a job in the major leagues.

 

yukie, yukie, poo-poo.

[Sammy Sofa]

Sweet merciful crap, that's just...just...just...

 

...

 

I don't have the words. They've basically replaced Rusch with a slightly less awful, more expensive version of himself.