Any interest in Hawpe?

[jjgman21]

 

It was directed at you because you said Hawpe has put up a 122 OPS+ once in his career...well hell, hes only played one full season, how many good OPS+ ML seasons do you want him to have?!?!?!? And you accuse me of using misleading facts. Pot, meet kettle. If you are going to compare a guy whos been in the league for 6 full years with a guy whos had a cup of coffee, 3/4 of a year, and a full year, you need to look at previous numbers as well. Hawpe produced at nearly every level he has played at. So to say hes put up 122 OPS+ only once is just plain ignorant, as in, you are ignoring his minor league numbers. If you want to compare on an age/level basis, then fine, I'll do that. NOTE: From first year American professional year using stats from level which had majority of ABs.

 

Age:Level:OPS

 

Soriano

23:AA:864

24:AAA:791

25:ML:736

26:ML:879

27:ML:863

28:ML:808

29:ML:821

30:ML:911

 

Hawpe

21:A-:900

22:A:869

23:A+:1034

24:AA:841

25:AAA:1036

26:ML:753

27:ML:898

 

So, if your point is to show that Hawpe's 900 OPS in 2006 is supported much better by his previous body of work (3 previous years of 900 or > OPS) than Soriano's 900 OPS in 2006 (ZERO previous years of 900 or > OPS, then cograts. Sori obviously has the advantage in ML experience, but the name of the game is projecting into the future, and theres nothing in their careers that shows Soriano is going to be soooo much better than Hawpe.

 

strawman alert.

 

my only point in bringing up Hawpe's OPS+ was to counter the other posters statement that Soriano has only equalled Hawpe's number once. I think my initial post expressly stated that I was not taking sides in the debate.

 

why are you using OPS anyway? isn't OPS+ a much fairer basis of comparison considering Hawpes' past three years were spent in Colorado Springs and Denver? could it be because using a stat that equalizes the stats doesn't fit your argument very well?

 

if your point is to project into the future, fine. nice analysis. interesting that Soriano out produced Hawpe in straight OPS on several levels and at a younger age, but whatever. that's not what the 'name of the game' is here. it is about who is the better ballplayer right now. for your answer to that question, see wilk's post.

[Rob]

I do think it is really possible that Hawpe is going to bloom into an All-Star player, but you have to look at important statistics like runs scored, RBI, SB, and HR. Hawpe is going to have to really step it up to get on those elite levels that Soriano eclipses on a yearly basis.

 

Those statistics aren't very important at all, especially RBI and R which are almost completely worthless. SB has some value, but Soriano gets himself out on the bases so much that he doesn't exactly provide a ton of value with his baserunning.

 

How the hell are RBI and R almost completely worthless?

 

Is VORP, Isod, Ipod, Ihop, PMS better ways to judge a player? :lol:

 

RBI and R aren't completely worthless. They're great ways to look at team production. They aren't very good when trying to isolate individual performances, though.

 

Think about it. If Carlos Lee were the #8 hitter for the Marlins, he probably wouldn't have had 100 RBI. DLee lost the MVP in 2005 because of RBIs... Corey Patterson and Neifi Perez weren't on base to be knocked in very often, so DLee just couldn't hit them in. That doesn't mean he had any less amazing of a season, though.

 

I will grant you, RBI and R can tell you something about a player. Mostly, they just tell you where in the order he batted, but sometimes they can do a bit more. It's readily apparent that Sammy Sosa had a hell of a season when he knocked in 160 guys. But was it better than Hal Trotsky in 1936 when he knocked in 162? Was it better than Ted Williams in 1949 when he knocked in 159?

 

RBI just doesn't do a very good job of isolating the individual from the team, and subsequently can only inform us of very broad things... 100 RBI usually means middle of the order. 100 R usually means the top. Obviously, it tells us something about the health of the player involved. And unusually large or small numbers can tell us it was a very good or very bad season... but not any more.

 

Team dependant stats, such as R and RBI are only telling at the margins... and that is simply not worth much when trying to evaluate a player.

[nilodnayr]

 

strawman alert.

 

my only point in bringing up Hawpe's OPS+ was to counter the other posters statement that Soriano has only equalled Hawpe's number once. I think my initial post expressly stated that I was not taking sides in the debate.

 

why are you using OPS anyway? isn't OPS+ a much fairer basis of comparison considering Hawpes' past three years were spent in Colorado Springs and Denver? could it be because using a stat that equalizes the stats doesn't fit your argument very well?

 

if your point is to project into the future, fine. nice analysis. interesting that Soriano out produced Hawpe in straight OPS on several levels and at a younger age, but whatever. that's not what the 'name of the game' is here. it is about who is the better ballplayer right now. for your answer to that question, see wilk's post.

 

No, actually I think OPS+ is a much better way to guage comparison, I just don't know of a website other than the minor league splits from the brewcrew guy that shows minor league OPS+, and I think he only started doing it in 05 or 06. Major league OPS+ for both have already been stated. If there is a website for minor league OPS+, I would love to know. I do know Col. Springs inflates power a ton, so you are right his 652 slg needs to be adjusted big time. I don't know about their other parks, but he never dipped below 500 OPS in any of his other seasons. And we all know that this last year, Denver hasn't been the hitters heaven it used to be.

 

Where did Soriano out produce Hawpe in straight OPS on several levels at a younger age? Soriano was a year younger at all ages...in AA, he outproduced Hawpe by 23 points. In AAA, Hawpe outproduced him by 245 points (col springs). Rookie year, Hawpe outporduced him by 17 points. Soph year, Hawpe outproduced him by 19 points. Where are you getting your numbers from?!?!?!?

[XZero771679666304]

I do think it is really possible that Hawpe is going to bloom into an All-Star player, but you have to look at important statistics like runs scored, RBI, SB, and HR. Hawpe is going to have to really step it up to get on those elite levels that Soriano eclipses on a yearly basis.

 

Those statistics aren't very important at all, especially RBI and R which are almost completely worthless. SB has some value, but Soriano gets himself out on the bases so much that he doesn't exactly provide a ton of value with his baserunning.

 

How the hell are RBI and R almost completely worthless?

 

Is VORP, Isod, Ipod, Ihop, PMS better ways to judge a player? :lol:

 

RBI and runs are team dependent stats. A player depends mostly on his teammates to drive him in for runs, and to get on base in front of him for RBI. They are two stats that the individual player has the least direct control of, unless they hit 100+ homers every year.

 

Think about Derrek Lee in 2005. Nearly 100 XBH, a batting title, and only 107 RBI? The team around him wasn't very good.

 

You should judge a player by the things he has control of: AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS. I am not a huge sabremetric guy, and some stats being thrown around these days are ridiculously circuitous in their calculation, but things like RC and VORP do tell more about a player than RBI and R.

 

Like pitchers, where stats like Wins are totally overrated. All a pitcher can do is go out and hold the other team down as best he can, and its up to his offense to win the game. Just ask Roger Clemens.

 

Many of the old standard stats like R, RBI, Wins, Losses, etc. are next to useless for objectively evaluating individual performance.

[David]

I do think it is really possible that Hawpe is going to bloom into an All-Star player, but you have to look at important statistics like runs scored, RBI, SB, and HR. Hawpe is going to have to really step it up to get on those elite levels that Soriano eclipses on a yearly basis.

 

Those statistics aren't very important at all, especially RBI and R which are almost completely worthless. SB has some value, but Soriano gets himself out on the bases so much that he doesn't exactly provide a ton of value with his baserunning.

 

How the hell are RBI and R almost completely worthless?

 

Is VORP, Isod, Ipod, Ihop, PMS better ways to judge a player? :lol:

 

Does this remind anyone else of that guy, CubsLoseAgain, who was mocking the use of modern stats, particularly VORP?

 

Something about "vorping around..."

[Kingmanarama]

No, actually I think OPS+ is a much better way to guage comparison...

 

Soriano outproduced Hawpe in OPS+ in their age 25, 26, and 27 MLB seasons:

 

Hawpe 2004, age 25 - 72 OPS+, 118 plate appearances,

Hawpe 2005, age 26 - 88 OPS+, 351 PA

Hawpe 2006, age 27 - 122 OPS+, 575 PA

 

Soriano 2001, age 25 - 92 OPS+, 614 PA

Soriano 2002, age 26 - 131 OPS+, 741 PA

Soriano 2003, age 27 - 128 OPS+, 734 PA

 

Also, Soriano outperformed Hawpe in OPS+ during each of the past three years:

 

Soriano 2004, age 28 - 98 OPS+, 658 PA

Soriano 2005, age 29 - 110 OPS+, 682 PA

Soriano 2006, age 30 - 132 OPS+, 728 PA

 

Hawpe sat against LHPs last season, too, which helped his OPS more than a little. He has a severe RHP/LHP split. I don't think it's necessary to look at minor league numbers to settle the debate. I'm not thrilled with A) Soriano's contract, B) the possibility of Soriano playing center field, or C) the fact that he's going to lead-off. But there's no doubt in my mind that he's a significantly more productive hitter than Brad Hawpe.

[nilodnayr]

No, actually I think OPS+ is a much better way to guage comparison...

 

Soriano outproduced Hawpe in OPS+ in their age 25, 26, and 27 MLB seasons:

 

Hawpe 2004, age 25 - 72 OPS+, 118 plate appearances,

Hawpe 2005, age 26 - 88 OPS+, 351 PA

Hawpe 2006, age 27 - 122 OPS+, 575 PA

 

Soriano 2001, age 25 - 92 OPS+, 614 PA

Soriano 2002, age 26 - 131 OPS+, 741 PA

Soriano 2003, age 27 - 128 OPS+, 734 PA

 

Also, Soriano outperformed Hawpe in OPS+ during each of the past three years:

 

Soriano 2004, age 28 - 98 OPS+, 658 PA

Soriano 2005, age 29 - 110 OPS+, 682 PA

Soriano 2006, age 30 - 132 OPS+, 728 PA

 

Hawpe sat against LHPs last season, too, which helped his OPS more than a little. He has a severe RHP/LHP split. I don't think it's necessary to look at minor league numbers to settle the debate. I'm not thrilled with A) Soriano's contract, B) the possibility of Soriano playing center field, or C) the fact that he's going to lead-off. But there's no doubt in my mind that he's a significantly more productive hitter than Brad Hawpe.

 

IMO instead of comparing Hawpe and Soriano on an age basis, because Soriano was a year ahead of Hawpe's track, compare then on level basis. So, by that, you can compare Sorianos first full year in the majors he put up 92 OPS+ vs Hawpe's first nearly full year in the majors where he put up 88 OPS+. In their second year Soriano put up 131 vs Hawpe's 122. So, OPS+ shows Soriano is only slightly better than Hawpe.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Denver Post is reporting that Hawpe is off the market.

 

Link.

 

Rockies right fielder Brad Hawpe isn't going anywhere and the starting rotation could return intact as well. After receiving inquiries from the Cardinals, Phillies and Pirates, the Rockies assured Hawpe's agent Tuesday that they have no plans to trade the 27-year-old slugger.

 

[Productive Outs]

I do think it is really possible that Hawpe is going to bloom into an All-Star player, but you have to look at important statistics like runs scored, RBI, SB, and HR. Hawpe is going to have to really step it up to get on those elite levels that Soriano eclipses on a yearly basis.

 

Those statistics aren't very important at all, especially RBI and R which are almost completely worthless. SB has some value, but Soriano gets himself out on the bases so much that he doesn't exactly provide a ton of value with his baserunning.

 

How the hell are RBI and R almost completely worthless?

 

Is VORP, Isod, Ipod, Ihop, PMS better ways to judge a player? :lol:

 

you really need a subscription to BP.

[TruffleShuffle]

They're talking about trading Hawpe? I'd be all over that, but we already paid an exorbitant amount of money for Soriano to play worse than Hawpe.

 

You think Hawpe's a better player than Soriano?

 

Yes.

 

Wow, I mean Hawpe is a very nice player but I personally dont think he is on Soriano's level. I think it is quite obvious that you dont really like the signing of Soriano, but dont let that cloud your judgment. If you are going the route of production vs. price, then I can see your point, otherwise I would have to disagree. But I would love to hear why you came to that conclusion.

Hawpe in 2006: .293/.383/.515/.898

Soriano in 2006: .277/.351/.560/.911

 

Soriano has only put up Hawpe's OPS once in his career. And Hawpe is 3.5 years younger with just two full major league seasons under his belt.

 

Soriano offers much more on the basepaths and, if put at 2B or CF, offers more bat relative to others at his position. Just sayin'.

[BigbadB]

Aren't the Pirates set in the corner outfield spots with X Nady and Jason Bay?

[TruffleShuffle]

Aren't the Pirates set in the corner outfield spots with X Nady and Jason Bay?

 

I think Nady has played some first base, and Bay can play CF if need be - albeit not that well.

[BigbadB]

Aren't the Pirates set in the corner outfield spots with X Nady and Jason Bay?

 

I think Nady has played some first base, and Bay can play CF if need be - albeit not that well.

 

Nady's been all over the place. I believe he was drafted as a 3b. The Padres attempted to convert him to a 2b when Burroughs was at 3b. Nady has played some 1b and lots of outfield since.

[TruffleShuffle]

Aren't the Pirates set in the corner outfield spots with X Nady and Jason Bay?

 

I think Nady has played some first base, and Bay can play CF if need be - albeit not that well.

 

Nady's been all over the place. I believe he was drafted as a 3b. The Padres attempted to convert him to a 2b when Burroughs was at 3b. Nady has played some 1b and lots of outfield since.

 

True. I guess I'd have to assume that one of those guys would be put at 1B, especially since the Pirates don't have a 1B worth a crap on their roster or in the minors right now. Bay probably would be the best guy to keep in the OF - he's a good fielder in left.