Is Hendry Really This Stupid?

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Serena made a post that just may needs it's own thread. It revealed alot of what is Hendry is thinking, and why I think that this orginization needs a new GM.

 

The Cubs (Jim Hendry) still see the offensive problem as having to do with a failure to hit in the clutch / hit with RISP / as a straight hitting problem vs an on-base problem.

 

Someone linked to a Dan Fox chat at Baseball Prospectus the other day. He received a lot of Soriano questions and, while answering a question about the Cubs' philosophy on free agents, he referred to a joint Baseball Digest / Bleed Cubbie Blue Blog interview with Jim Hendry this past August. Fox then wrote:

 

Quote:

But what was more interesting was an exchange that wasn't published. BDD asked Hendry if the Cubs will try and initiate a philosophical change in trying to get guys on base since they were 28th in the league in runs scored and 29th in OBP or perhaps sign some free agents who have historically had higher on base percentages (maybe Carlos Lee or J.D. Drew?) or even bring in a new hitting coach to alter the mindset of the approach at the plate. Hendry responded with the following:

 

Jim Hendry wrote:

"Well we'd like to get guys who can get on base, but our trouble was knocking guys in. We finished 4th or 5th in the league in hitting so we did manage to get guys on base. You can get all the guys on base that you want, but you have to knock them in."

 

This is a man running a major league baseball team in 2006. We are far past this kind of thinking in baseball, and this kind of rational is going to have a long term effect on this team.

[Drew Doughty]

I'm wondering what a team does to qualify "4th or 5th in hitting".

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I think he meant batting average.

 

We were like 6th in BA this year, and in 2004. In 2005 I think we were like tied for second or third in batting average.

 

He really thinks that makes us a good on base team. This man is...something else.

[rocket]

someone tell hendry that the cubs were 14th in the league in at-bats with runners in scoring position.

 

the problem isn't that we can't drive runners in while they're in scoring position, the problem is that our runners aren't in scoring position often. hence, we need to get on base more!

 

batting average with risp wasn't a big deal. the cubs were 11th in the national league at it, but it's important to note that the difference between 11th in the league and 2nd in the league was .013, not very significant.

[CubColtPacer]

someone tell hendry that the cubs were 14th in the league in at-bats with runners in scoring position.

 

the problem isn't that we can't drive runners in while they're in scoring position, the problem is that our runners aren't in scoring position often. hence, we need to get on base more!

 

batting average with risp wasn't a big deal. the cubs were 11th in the national league at it, but it's important to note that the difference between 11th in the league and 2nd in the league was .013, not very significant.

 

Yup, and our high incidence of double plays didn't help either-12th in the majors in grounding into DP's, even though we had so few baserunners.

 

I wouldn't call 13 points insignificant though-if we could add 13 points to our OBP from last year, we'd go from last to the middle of the pack in the NL. I do agree though that batting with RISP was certainly not our biggest problem, nor is there any real way to make that better except for simply getting better hitters.

 

Reason for edit: Edited last paragraph to make it a little clearer

Edited November 23, 2006 by CubColtPacer

[rocket]

someone tell hendry that the cubs were 14th in the league in at-bats with runners in scoring position.

 

the problem isn't that we can't drive runners in while they're in scoring position, the problem is that our runners aren't in scoring position often. hence, we need to get on base more!

 

batting average with risp wasn't a big deal. the cubs were 11th in the national league at it, but it's important to note that the difference between 11th in the league and 2nd in the league was .013, not very significant.

 

Yup, and our high incidence of double plays didn't help either-12th in the majors in grounding into DP's, even though we had so few baserunners.

 

I wouldn't call 13 points insignificant though-if we could add 13 points to our OBP from last year, we'd go from last to the middle of the pack in the NL. I do agree though that was certainly not our biggest problem, nor is there any real way to make that better except for simply getting better hitters.

 

how about this then, the difference between 11th in ba w/ risp and 6th was .005

[Derwood]

This is the same way of thinking that praises Juan Pierre for leading the NL in hits while ignoring that he also lead the NL in outs

[erik316wttn]

Quick rule of thumb:

 

Any time the question is "Is Hendry really this dumb?", the answer is "yes".

[BigbadB]

More threads like this please. Let's pound OBP into his skull.

[CubmanPi]

More threads like this please. Let's pound OBP into his skull.

Exactly. Remember, Big Z could be lurking...

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Exactly. Remember, Big Z could be lurking...

 

Or Prior...remember he said he read baseball sites too didn't he?

[nilodnayr]

More threads like this please. Let's pound OBP into his skull.

Exactly. Remember, Big Z could be lurking...

 

Z's not on "the internets" for baseball sites. And I don't want to change his approach. I like the aggresive Z at the plate!

[CubinNY]

I wonder what happens when the Cubs have three guys with 30+ HRs and two more in the 20s and still are below average in runs scored?

 

It is the same old problem. During the Sosa years people would complain about the one-run HR and not understand the reasons for it.

 

Hendry hasn't learned anything new about baseball since his college coaching days.

 

This is what I worry about with the signing of Soriano. The Cubs may look good on paper, but they may be only slightly better next year.

 

They will have to get some good to great pitching in order to be an elite team next year.

[Jon]

I wonder what happens when the Cubs have three guys with 30+ HRs and two more in the 20s and still are below average in runs scored?

 

It is the same old problem. During the Sosa years people would complain about the one-run HR and not understand the reasons for it.

 

Hendry hasn't learned anything new about baseball since his college coaching days.

 

This is what I worry about with the signing of Soriano. The Cubs may look good on paper, but they may be only slightly better next year.

 

They will have to get some good to great pitching in order to be an elite team next year.

That's how I feel. Aside from Lee being healthy and addition by subtraction in regards to Pierre, this offense really isn't that much better. I'd expect both Jones and Soriano to regress with Soriano putting up 2006 Jones-esque numbers from last year (and keep in mind he'll be doing that in the leadoff spot, not with Lee and Ramirez in front of him) and Jones putting up numbers closer to his final two years with the Twins. And then you have the middle of the infield.

 

A lot of things will have to go right with the pitching staff this year.

[CubColtPacer]

I wonder what happens when the Cubs have three guys with 30+ HRs and two more in the 20s and still are below average in runs scored?

 

It is the same old problem. During the Sosa years people would complain about the one-run HR and not understand the reasons for it.

 

Hendry hasn't learned anything new about baseball since his college coaching days.

 

This is what I worry about with the signing of Soriano. The Cubs may look good on paper, but they may be only slightly better next year.

 

They will have to get some good to great pitching in order to be an elite team next year.

That's how I feel. Aside from Lee being healthy and addition by subtraction in regards to Pierre, this offense really isn't that much better. I'd expect both Jones and Soriano to regress with Soriano putting up 2006 Jones-esque numbers from last year (and keep in mind he'll be doing that in the leadoff spot, not with Lee and Ramirez in front of him) and Jones putting up numbers closer to his final two years with the Twins. And then you have the middle of the infield.

 

A lot of things will have to go right with the pitching staff this year.

 

The only thing I don't understand is why Jones would slip all the way to his last two years with the Twins. Jones couldn't hit in the Metrodome-in just about every year, his OPS at home was significantly worse than on the road. That, combined with moving from the AL Central to the NL Central, was much of the cause for his having much better numbers last year than it simply being a career year for him.

[jjgman21]

Quick rule of thumb:

 

Any time the question is "Is Hendry really this dumb?", the answer is "yes".

 

another quick rule of thumb

 

Anytime you take what a baseball GM or any high ranking corporate official says to a reporter as truth as to what he is thinking, you are the one that is dumb.

[Jon]

I wonder what happens when the Cubs have three guys with 30+ HRs and two more in the 20s and still are below average in runs scored?

 

It is the same old problem. During the Sosa years people would complain about the one-run HR and not understand the reasons for it.

 

Hendry hasn't learned anything new about baseball since his college coaching days.

 

This is what I worry about with the signing of Soriano. The Cubs may look good on paper, but they may be only slightly better next year.

 

They will have to get some good to great pitching in order to be an elite team next year.

That's how I feel. Aside from Lee being healthy and addition by subtraction in regards to Pierre, this offense really isn't that much better. I'd expect both Jones and Soriano to regress with Soriano putting up 2006 Jones-esque numbers from last year (and keep in mind he'll be doing that in the leadoff spot, not with Lee and Ramirez in front of him) and Jones putting up numbers closer to his final two years with the Twins. And then you have the middle of the infield.

 

A lot of things will have to go right with the pitching staff this year.

 

The only thing I don't understand is why Jones would slip all the way to his last two years with the Twins. Jones couldn't hit in the Metrodome-in just about every year, his OPS at home was significantly worse than on the road. That, combined with moving from the AL Central to the NL Central, was much of the cause for his having much better numbers last year than it simply being a career year for him.

I did say closer, not necessarily all the way down to a .750 OPS. But even in his final three years in Minnesota, he only averaged about a .780 OPS on the road.

[Sarcastic]

Quick rule of thumb:

 

Any time the question is "Is Hendry really this dumb?", the answer is "yes".

 

another quick rule of thumb

 

Anytime you take what a baseball GM or any high ranking corporate official says to a reporter as truth as to what he is thinking, you are the one that is dumb.

 

I might not have said it that way, but this is definitely true. The only real evidence as to what a GM's philosophy is is the team he puts on the field. There's plenty of evidence of Hendry screwing up there without going to quotes.

[jjgman21]

I wonder what happens when the Cubs have three guys with 30+ HRs and two more in the 20s and still are below average in runs scored?

 

It is the same old problem. During the Sosa years people would complain about the one-run HR and not understand the reasons for it.

 

Hendry hasn't learned anything new about baseball since his college coaching days.

 

This is what I worry about with the signing of Soriano. The Cubs may look good on paper, but they may be only slightly better next year.

 

They will have to get some good to great pitching in order to be an elite team next year.

That's how I feel. Aside from Lee being healthy and addition by subtraction in regards to Pierre, this offense really isn't that much better. I'd expect both Jones and Soriano to regress with Soriano putting up 2006 Jones-esque numbers from last year (and keep in mind he'll be doing that in the leadoff spot, not with Lee and Ramirez in front of him) and Jones putting up numbers closer to his final two years with the Twins. And then you have the middle of the infield.

 

A lot of things will have to go right with the pitching staff this year.

 

this sort of thinking drives me nuts. assume regression by everyone to come to the conclusion that everything will be a complete disaster. I understand the need to view things from a worst case scenerio point of view, but come on. the return of Lee, swap of Soriano for Pierre, more Barrett less Blanco, second will be vastly improved with the exception of the September production the Cubs got from Theriot, progression by Murton that was amply demonstrated in the second half, and you have to assume that Aram will not have the horrendous bad luck he had in April and May 06.

 

this offense will be vastly improved over 2006.

[Jon]

I wonder what happens when the Cubs have three guys with 30+ HRs and two more in the 20s and still are below average in runs scored?

 

It is the same old problem. During the Sosa years people would complain about the one-run HR and not understand the reasons for it.

 

Hendry hasn't learned anything new about baseball since his college coaching days.

 

This is what I worry about with the signing of Soriano. The Cubs may look good on paper, but they may be only slightly better next year.

 

They will have to get some good to great pitching in order to be an elite team next year.

That's how I feel. Aside from Lee being healthy and addition by subtraction in regards to Pierre, this offense really isn't that much better. I'd expect both Jones and Soriano to regress with Soriano putting up 2006 Jones-esque numbers from last year (and keep in mind he'll be doing that in the leadoff spot, not with Lee and Ramirez in front of him) and Jones putting up numbers closer to his final two years with the Twins. And then you have the middle of the infield.

 

A lot of things will have to go right with the pitching staff this year.

 

this sort of thinking drives me nuts. assume regression by everyone to come to the conclusion that everything will be a complete disaster. I understand the need to view things from a worst case scenerio point of view, but come on. the return of Lee, swap of Soriano for Pierre, more Barrett less Blanco, second will be vastly improved with the exception of the September production the Cubs got from Theriot, progression by Murton that was amply demonstrated in the second half, and you have to assume that Aram will not have the horrendous bad luck he had in April and May 06.

 

this offense will be vastly improved over 2006.

Regression for Jones and Soriano doesn't seem to be too unlikely.

 

Jacque Jones (32):

2003 - .304 .333 .464 .797

2004 - .254 .315 .427 .742

2005 - .249 .319 .438 .757

2006 - .285 .334 .499 .833

 

Alfonso Soriano (31)

2003 - .290 .338 .525 .863

2004 - .280 .324 .484 .808

2005 - .268 .309 .512 .821

2006 - .277 .351 .560 .911

 

They both had either a career year or close to a career year on the wrong side of 30. I don't think it's safe to assume that they can easily repeat those seasons. Same thing with DeRosa (32).

[jjgman21]

Quick rule of thumb:

 

Any time the question is "Is Hendry really this dumb?", the answer is "yes".

 

another quick rule of thumb

 

Anytime you take what a baseball GM or any high ranking corporate official says to a reporter as truth as to what he is thinking, you are the one that is dumb.

 

I might not have said it that way, but this is definitely true. The only real evidence as to what a GM's philosophy is is the team he puts on the field. There's plenty of evidence of Hendry screwing up there without going to quotes.

 

oh, I don't completely disagree with that notion, but I still hold out a shred of hope that Hendry put the team that his manager wanted on the field. I also don't think Hendry has nearly enough respect for OBP or the walk in particular.

 

although I didn't want Lou, putting a no-nonsense manager and the A's hitting coach on the bench shows some progress to that end.

[jjgman21]

I wonder what happens when the Cubs have three guys with 30+ HRs and two more in the 20s and still are below average in runs scored?

 

It is the same old problem. During the Sosa years people would complain about the one-run HR and not understand the reasons for it.

 

Hendry hasn't learned anything new about baseball since his college coaching days.

 

This is what I worry about with the signing of Soriano. The Cubs may look good on paper, but they may be only slightly better next year.

 

They will have to get some good to great pitching in order to be an elite team next year.

That's how I feel. Aside from Lee being healthy and addition by subtraction in regards to Pierre, this offense really isn't that much better. I'd expect both Jones and Soriano to regress with Soriano putting up 2006 Jones-esque numbers from last year (and keep in mind he'll be doing that in the leadoff spot, not with Lee and Ramirez in front of him) and Jones putting up numbers closer to his final two years with the Twins. And then you have the middle of the infield.

 

A lot of things will have to go right with the pitching staff this year.

 

this sort of thinking drives me nuts. assume regression by everyone to come to the conclusion that everything will be a complete disaster. I understand the need to view things from a worst case scenerio point of view, but come on. the return of Lee, swap of Soriano for Pierre, more Barrett less Blanco, second will be vastly improved with the exception of the September production the Cubs got from Theriot, progression by Murton that was amply demonstrated in the second half, and you have to assume that Aram will not have the horrendous bad luck he had in April and May 06.

 

this offense will be vastly improved over 2006.

Regression for Jones and Soriano doesn't seem to be too unlikely.

 

Jacque Jones (32):

2003 - .304 .333 .464 .797

2004 - .254 .315 .427 .742

2005 - .249 .319 .438 .757

2006 - .285 .334 .499 .833

 

Alfonso Soriano (31)

2003 - .290 .338 .525 .863

2004 - .280 .324 .484 .808

2005 - .268 .309 .512 .821

2006 - .277 .351 .560 .911

 

They both had either a career year or close to a career year on the wrong side of 30. I don't think it's safe to assume that they can easily repeat those seasons. Same thing with DeRosa (32).

 

see the calculation I ran for the Cubs projected lineup which used three year splits, aka assumes regression.

[erik316wttn]

Quick rule of thumb:

 

Any time the question is "Is Hendry really this dumb?", the answer is "yes".

 

another quick rule of thumb

 

Anytime you take what a baseball GM or any high ranking corporate official says to a reporter as truth as to what he is thinking, you are the one that is dumb.

 

I might not have said it that way, but this is definitely true. The only real evidence as to what a GM's philosophy is is the team he puts on the field. There's plenty of evidence of Hendry screwing up there without going to quotes.

 

I wasn't necessarily referring to the article. I think Hendry's overall body of work will back me up.

[Jon]

I wonder what happens when the Cubs have three guys with 30+ HRs and two more in the 20s and still are below average in runs scored?

 

It is the same old problem. During the Sosa years people would complain about the one-run HR and not understand the reasons for it.

 

Hendry hasn't learned anything new about baseball since his college coaching days.

 

This is what I worry about with the signing of Soriano. The Cubs may look good on paper, but they may be only slightly better next year.

 

They will have to get some good to great pitching in order to be an elite team next year.

That's how I feel. Aside from Lee being healthy and addition by subtraction in regards to Pierre, this offense really isn't that much better. I'd expect both Jones and Soriano to regress with Soriano putting up 2006 Jones-esque numbers from last year (and keep in mind he'll be doing that in the leadoff spot, not with Lee and Ramirez in front of him) and Jones putting up numbers closer to his final two years with the Twins. And then you have the middle of the infield.

 

A lot of things will have to go right with the pitching staff this year.

 

this sort of thinking drives me nuts. assume regression by everyone to come to the conclusion that everything will be a complete disaster. I understand the need to view things from a worst case scenerio point of view, but come on. the return of Lee, swap of Soriano for Pierre, more Barrett less Blanco, second will be vastly improved with the exception of the September production the Cubs got from Theriot, progression by Murton that was amply demonstrated in the second half, and you have to assume that Aram will not have the horrendous bad luck he had in April and May 06.

 

this offense will be vastly improved over 2006.

Regression for Jones and Soriano doesn't seem to be too unlikely.

 

Jacque Jones (32):

2003 - .304 .333 .464 .797

2004 - .254 .315 .427 .742

2005 - .249 .319 .438 .757

2006 - .285 .334 .499 .833

 

Alfonso Soriano (31)

2003 - .290 .338 .525 .863

2004 - .280 .324 .484 .808

2005 - .268 .309 .512 .821

2006 - .277 .351 .560 .911

 

They both had either a career year or close to a career year on the wrong side of 30. I don't think it's safe to assume that they can easily repeat those seasons. Same thing with DeRosa (32).

 

see the calculation I ran for the Cubs projected lineup which used three year splits, aka assumes regression.

How much of that is having Lee healthy and ditching Pierre, though?

 

In terms of what Hendry has done, the improvements are minimal. In terms of production, I still don't think we'll see that great of a difference, especially with the batting order we're going to see.

[jjgman21]

How much of that is having Lee healthy and ditching Pierre, though?

 

In terms of what Hendry has done, the improvements are minimal. In terms of production, I still don't think we'll see that great of a difference, especially with the batting order we're going to see.

 

it has alot to do with it. what's it matter? let's go position by position.

 

1B - assuming health of Lee, vast improvement

2B - assuming DeRosa doesn't fall completely on his face, vast improvement for the first five months of the season, big fall off for September.

SS - scratch. actually probably a modest improvement

3B - assuming lack of horrendously bad luck, an improvement

LF - assuming basic career progression and Murton being allowed to play, an improvement

CF - a vast improvment

RF- probably some regression, unless a platoon is brought in, in which case probably a scratch (keep in mind three year splits includes Jones' two worst years).

C - probably a scratch. Barrett won't be as good but will play more games.

 

pinch hitting - Cubs were 13 of 16 NL teams in OPS. no more Neifi and Freddie getting most of the PH at bats