Is Hendry Really This Stupid?

[nilodnayr]

To back up JJG's ARAM had bad luck claim

 

Thats a pretty rough start of the season. Looks like his BABIP didn't even reach 200 until a month or so into the season.

[nilodnayr]

To back up JJG's ARAM had bad luck claim

 

Thats a pretty rough start of the season. Looks like his BABIP didn't even reach 200 until a month or so into the season.

[cheapseats]

3B - assuming lack of horrendously bad luck, an improvement

 

?

 

Why would you expect improvement from Aramis when his OBP and SLG dropped in 2005 and 2006?

 

PECOTA projects that Aramis will decline each year. ZIPS projects him to pretty much replicate his 2006 numbers.

 

I'll be happy if Aramis can reproduce his last season.

 

Edit: And I know Aramis had horrible luck at the beginning of 2006, but his BABIP didn't end up much lower than his career average by the end of the season, and his line drive percentage decreased in both 2005 and 2006. His BABIP wasn't really too far out of line considering his line drive percentage.

[jjgman21]

3B - assuming lack of horrendously bad luck, an improvement

 

?

 

Why would you expect improvement from Aramis when his OBP and SLG dropped in 2005 and 2006?

 

PECOTA projects that Aramis will decline each year. ZIPS projects him to pretty much replicate his 2006 numbers.

 

I'll be happy if Aramis can reproduce his last season.

 

Edit: And I know Aramis had horrible luck at the beginning of 2006, but his BABIP didn't end up much lower than his career average by the end of the season, and his line drive percentage decreased in both 2005 and 2006. His BABIP wasn't really too far out of line considering his line drive percentage.

 

if PECOTA and Zips projections are out for 2007 I would love to see them so I can plug them into the same calculator instead of using three year splits. please provide a link or send them to me. I will do my novice best to adjust those stats for not playing 162 as well.

 

also, are you implying that Aramis had better than average luck after May? if so, why are you using career? would his 03-05 be a more appropriate comparison for that?

[Jon]

How much of that is having Lee healthy and ditching Pierre, though?

 

In terms of what Hendry has done, the improvements are minimal. In terms of production, I still don't think we'll see that great of a difference, especially with the batting order we're going to see.

 

it has alot to do with it. what's it matter? let's go position by position.

 

1B - assuming health of Lee, vast improvement

2B - assuming DeRosa doesn't fall completely on his face, vast improvement for the first five months of the season, big fall off for September.

SS - scratch. actually probably a modest improvement

3B - assuming lack of horrendously bad luck, an improvement

LF - assuming basic career progression and Murton being allowed to play, an improvement

CF - a vast improvment

RF- probably some regression, unless a platoon is brought in, in which case probably a scratch (keep in mind three year splits includes Jones' two worst years).

C - probably a scratch. Barrett won't be as good but will play more games.

 

pinch hitting - Cubs were 13 of 16 NL teams in OPS. no more Neifi and Freddie getting most of the PH at bats

I've already stated my views on Jones and Soriano, but here are the rest:

 

Lee - It's important to remember that we still don't know if he can repeat his one amazing year. He only has one year where he finished with an OPS over .890. I'll certainly be satisfied if we can get a .950 OPS out of him, but it's hard to say just how well he's going to do. Will he be very good or great?

DeRosa - As I said before, he's never put up those kinds of numbers and he'll be 32 years old. Frankly, I'd be more surprised at a repeat year than significant regression. Especially in terms of power, although obviously his OBP is going to be more important in the two spot. And Todd put up a .352 OBP for the Cubs last year.

Izturis - I don't even want to think about him. Bat him behind the pitcher.

Ramirez - I don't really see much of an improvement. As cheapseats said, I think something along the lines of last year would be good enough for him. I'm not sure we're going to see 2004 Aramis again, but he should stay at or above .900 for a while.

Murton - It'll be interesting to see what he does, but I do think he'll improve. With that said, it'll also be interesting to see what Hendry does the rest of the offseason and how much PT he'll really get.

Barrett - I don't think he'll be able to do as well, but he could be close.

[cheapseats]

3B - assuming lack of horrendously bad luck, an improvement

 

?

 

Why would you expect improvement from Aramis when his OBP and SLG dropped in 2005 and 2006?

 

PECOTA projects that Aramis will decline each year. ZIPS projects him to pretty much replicate his 2006 numbers.

 

I'll be happy if Aramis can reproduce his last season.

 

Edit: And I know Aramis had horrible luck at the beginning of 2006, but his BABIP didn't end up much lower than his career average by the end of the season, and his line drive percentage decreased in both 2005 and 2006. His BABIP wasn't really too far out of line considering his line drive percentage.

 

if PECOTA and Zips projections are out for 2007 I would love to see them so I can plug them into the same calculator instead of using three year splits. please provide a link or send them to me. I will do my novice best to adjust those stats for not playing 162 as well.

 

also, are you implying that Aramis had better than average luck after May? if so, why are you using career? would his 03-05 be a more appropriate comparison for that?

 

2007 Cubs Zips

 

No ZIPS for Derosa or Soriano yet.

[Jon]

2007 Cubs Zips

 

No ZIPS for Derosa or Soriano yet.

They posted those projections in the post for each signing.

 

Soriano (ouch):

2007 ZiPS Projection - Alfonso Soriano
----------------------------------------------------------------------
             AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   642  100 170  38  2  36  98  50 150  27  .265  .327  .498
2008         602   92 161  39  2  31  77  44 144  24  .267  .325  .493
2009         578   83 151  39  2  26  67  41 136  21  .261  .321  .471
2010         550   75 141  39  2  21  59  38 126  17  .256  .314  .449
2011         502   66 127  36  2  18  50  35 114  12  .253  .312  .440
2012         423   53 105  30  1  13  38  30  96   8  .248  .312  .416
2013         370   45  92  26  1  10  30  26  82   6  .249  .315  .405	
2014         384   49  95  27  1  11  33  29  88   6  .247  .317  .409
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)   667  124 194  46  4  46 114  62 142  40  .291  .361  .579
Pes. (15%)   505   69 122  26  1  25  56  34 130  17  .242  .295  .446

 

DeRosa (ouch):

2007 ZiPS Projection - Mark DeRosa
----------------------------------------------------------------------
             AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   404  54  107  30  1   8  49  32  85   2  .265  .324  .403
2008         363  50   94  25  1   8  43  30  71   2  .259  .324  .399
2009         355  48   93  26  1   7  42  29  72   2  .262  .326  .400
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)   458  72  132  37  2  12  64  43  85   3  .288  .357  .456 
Pess. (15%   264  29   62  16  0   3  25  17  65   0  .235  .286  .330

[CP_414]

2007 Cubs Zips

 

No ZIPS for Derosa or Soriano yet.

They posted those projections in the post for each signing.

 

Soriano (ouch):

2007 ZiPS Projection - Alfonso Soriano
----------------------------------------------------------------------
             AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   642  100 170  38  2  36  98  50 150  27  .265  .327  .498
2008         602   92 161  39  2  31  77  44 144  24  .267  .325  .493
2009         578   83 151  39  2  26  67  41 136  21  .261  .321  .471
2010         550   75 141  39  2  21  59  38 126  17  .256  .314  .449
2011         502   66 127  36  2  18  50  35 114  12  .253  .312  .440
2012         423   53 105  30  1  13  38  30  96   8  .248  .312  .416
2013         370   45  92  26  1  10  30  26  82   6  .249  .315  .405	
2014         384   49  95  27  1  11  33  29  88   6  .247  .317  .409
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)   667  124 194  46  4  46 114  62 142  40  .291  .361  .579
Pes. (15%)   505   69 122  26  1  25  56  34 130  17  .242  .295  .446

 

DeRosa (ouch):

2007 ZiPS Projection - Mark DeRosa
----------------------------------------------------------------------
             AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   404  54  107  30  1   8  49  32  85   2  .265  .324  .403
2008         363  50   94  25  1   8  43  30  71   2  .259  .324  .399
2009         355  48   93  26  1   7  42  29  72   2  .262  .326  .400
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)   458  72  132  37  2  12  64  43  85   3  .288  .357  .456 
Pess. (15%   264  29   62  16  0   3  25  17  65   0  .235  .286  .330

 

Well thats not good.

[jjgman21]

just a little confused. where is Soriano's 2007 line? it starts at 2008. (edit, never mind, I see them now)

 

for DeRosa, since he's projected as the starting secondbaseman, I will assume he's going to get more ABs.

 

hash these issues out and I will run the calculator a little later tonight and put it into the thread I started before.

 

what about PECOTA?

[cheapseats]

They posted those projections in the post for each signing.

 

Thanks. I was wondering when/if they would do that. I didn't notice that it had already been done.

[nilodnayr]

3B - assuming lack of horrendously bad luck, an improvement

 

?

 

Why would you expect improvement from Aramis when his OBP and SLG dropped in 2005 and 2006?

 

PECOTA projects that Aramis will decline each year. ZIPS projects him to pretty much replicate his 2006 numbers.

 

I'll be happy if Aramis can reproduce his last season.

 

Edit: And I know Aramis had horrible luck at the beginning of 2006, but his BABIP didn't end up much lower than his career average by the end of the season, and his line drive percentage decreased in both 2005 and 2006. His BABIP wasn't really too far out of line considering his line drive percentage.

 

And all of that OBP and SLG drop was because of batting average drop. His IsoP and IsoD are actually better in 06 than 04 and 05. Yes, his LD% has dropped very slightly, but I think that only accounts for part of his BABIP drop. ARAM's BABIP was his worst since 2002.

[cheapseats]

 

And all of that OBP and SLG drop was because of batting average drop. His IsoP and IsoD are actually better in 06 than 04 and 05.

 

But Aramis's OBP is always driven by his batting average. His IsoD might have been up this year, but it's still low for a slugger like Aramis. Of the top 25 batters in OPS last year, Aramis was in the bottom 16% in IsoD. Of the top 40, he was in the bottom 18%.

 

I like Aramis, and I want him to do well, but I tend to agree with the projections that show him in a gradual decline. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we've already seen the best we'll see from him.

[jjgman21]

 

And all of that OBP and SLG drop was because of batting average drop. His IsoP and IsoD are actually better in 06 than 04 and 05.

 

But Aramis's OBP is always driven by his batting average. His IsoD might have been up this year, but it's still low for a slugger like Aramis. Of the top 25 batters in OPS last year, Aramis was in the bottom 16% in IsoD. Of the top 40, he was in the bottom 18%.

 

I like Aramis, and I want him to do well, but I tend to agree with the projections that show him in a gradual decline. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we've already seen the best we'll see from him.

 

and by gradual decline you mean slight increase?

 

2006 actual - .912

2007 Zips - .914

[cheapseats]

 

And all of that OBP and SLG drop was because of batting average drop. His IsoP and IsoD are actually better in 06 than 04 and 05.

 

But Aramis's OBP is always driven by his batting average. His IsoD might have been up this year, but it's still low for a slugger like Aramis. Of the top 25 batters in OPS last year, Aramis was in the bottom 16% in IsoD. Of the top 40, he was in the bottom 18%.

 

I like Aramis, and I want him to do well, but I tend to agree with the projections that show him in a gradual decline. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we've already seen the best we'll see from him.

 

and by gradual decline you mean slight increase?

 

2006 actual - .912

2007 Zips - .914

 

As I've already stated, ZIPS sees him performing at about last year's level, but PECOTA projects a gradual decline from 2007 to 2010.

[jjgman21]

 

And all of that OBP and SLG drop was because of batting average drop. His IsoP and IsoD are actually better in 06 than 04 and 05.

 

But Aramis's OBP is always driven by his batting average. His IsoD might have been up this year, but it's still low for a slugger like Aramis. Of the top 25 batters in OPS last year, Aramis was in the bottom 16% in IsoD. Of the top 40, he was in the bottom 18%.

 

I like Aramis, and I want him to do well, but I tend to agree with the projections that show him in a gradual decline. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we've already seen the best we'll see from him.

 

and by gradual decline you mean slight increase?

 

2006 actual - .912

2007 Zips - .914

 

As I've already stated, ZIPS sees him performing at about last year's level, but PECOTA projects a gradual decline from 2007 to 2010.

 

ah, so we'll disregard the one that hurts your argument and emphasize the one that helps. why then did you not say "one projection shows him in gradual decline?" why frame it so all projections show him on the decline?

 

will you show me where to find or send me PECOTA projections please?

[nilodnayr]

 

And all of that OBP and SLG drop was because of batting average drop. His IsoP and IsoD are actually better in 06 than 04 and 05.

 

But Aramis's OBP is always driven by his batting average. His IsoD might have been up this year, but it's still low for a slugger like Aramis. Of the top 25 batters in OPS last year, Aramis was in the bottom 16% in IsoD. Of the top 40, he was in the bottom 18%.

 

I like Aramis, and I want him to do well, but I tend to agree with the projections that show him in a gradual decline. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we've already seen the best we'll see from him.

 

I never said his IsoD is great, far from my point. You said his OBP had dropped, and I showed that his IsoD had increased. The drop in OBP and SLG was due to a drop in BA, which is due to a drop in BABIP, which is partly due to a drop in LD%.

[cheapseats]

 

I never said his IsoD is great, far from my point. You said his OBP had dropped, and I showed that his IsoD had increased. The drop in OBP and SLG was due to a drop in BA, which is due to a drop in BABIP, which is partly due to a drop in LD%.

 

I never implied that you said his IsoD was good. In fact, I didn't think you were arguing that his plate discipline is actually improving. I was simply pointing out that throughout his career, his OBP has been dependent on his batting average. Such hitters normally face steeper declines than those who walk more often.

 

That doesn't mean that Aramis won't be a useful player for a long time. His #1 comp in PECOTA is Tony Perez, who played 16 seasons after turning 28.

[cheapseats]

 

And all of that OBP and SLG drop was because of batting average drop. His IsoP and IsoD are actually better in 06 than 04 and 05.

 

But Aramis's OBP is always driven by his batting average. His IsoD might have been up this year, but it's still low for a slugger like Aramis. Of the top 25 batters in OPS last year, Aramis was in the bottom 16% in IsoD. Of the top 40, he was in the bottom 18%.

 

I like Aramis, and I want him to do well, but I tend to agree with the projections that show him in a gradual decline. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we've already seen the best we'll see from him.

 

and by gradual decline you mean slight increase?

 

2006 actual - .912

2007 Zips - .914

 

As I've already stated, ZIPS sees him performing at about last year's level, but PECOTA projects a gradual decline from 2007 to 2010.

 

ah, so we'll disregard the one that hurts your argument and emphasize the one that helps. why then did you not say "one projection shows him in gradual decline?" why frame it so all projections show him on the decline?

 

will you show me where to find or send me PECOTA projections please?

 

In my first comment in this thread, I clearly stated that ZIPS predicts he'll replicate his 2006 season next year. And when I think we've already seen his best, I mean that literally. I don't necessarily expect a decline next year, but I don't expect greater production, either.

 

PECOTA projections are available to BP subscribers. If you're thinking about a subscription, I highly recommend it. The newest projections probably won't come out until early 2007.

[jjgman21]

 

In my first comment in this thread, I clearly stated that ZIPS predicts he'll replicate his 2006 season next year. And when I think we've already seen his best, I mean that literally. I don't necessarily expect a decline next year, but I don't expect greater production, either.

 

PECOTA projections are available to BP subscribers. If you're thinking about a subscription, I highly recommend it. The newest projections probably won't come out until early 2007.

 

so if Zips show Aram repeating his numbers from last year, and PECOTA isn't out yet, which projections are showing his gradual decline?

[cheapseats]

 

In my first comment in this thread, I clearly stated that ZIPS predicts he'll replicate his 2006 season next year. And when I think we've already seen his best, I mean that literally. I don't necessarily expect a decline next year, but I don't expect greater production, either.

 

PECOTA projections are available to BP subscribers. If you're thinking about a subscription, I highly recommend it. The newest projections probably won't come out until early 2007.

 

so if Zips show Aram repeating his numbers from last year, and PECOTA isn't out yet, which projections are showing his gradual decline?

 

The newest PECOTA isn't out yet. The most recent, which came out before the 2006 season, had detailed projections for 2006 and less detailed projections for 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010.

 

PECOTA's weighted mean projection for Aramis's OPS was within 9 points of his actual OPS, fwiw.

 

Feel free to expect improvement from Aramis if you want.

[TB_11]

I just came back from a week-long vacation, one of those no cell-phone, no Blackberry, no internet getaways. When I hit my apartment, my roommate told me the Cubs had signed Soriano, and asked me to guess the contract. My guesses assumed Hendry had overpaid, but were still about three years and $60M short.

 

I'm glad this was the first thread I saw when I reached NSBB.

 

I've skimmed this thread and others, and I think every reaction I've had has already been stated except one. At this point, the Cubs have to overspend to make a push for 2007, like the Marlins did in 1997. Soriano, Lee and Aramis will only decline as their contracts mature, Zambrano will face injuries at some point (as blasphemous as it sounds, it's bound to happen), Barrett's longevity is shortened due to the fact that he's a catcher, etc. The only way this deal will make a hint of sense is if Hendry goes out and signs some combination of Zito, Schmidt, Drew, and even Bonds and Clemens. Clearly, the chances of this happening are near zero, but it's the only way this deal will approach being rational.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

TB_11...great post.

 

Nice to see that I'm not the only one pessimistic about Z too...

[goonys evil twin]

This is a man running a major league baseball team in 2006. We are far past this kind of thinking in baseball, and this kind of rational is going to have a long term effect on this team.

 

No we aren't. There are still plenty of dolts out there who think like this.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

No we aren't. There are still plenty of dolts out there who think like this

 

True....Bill Shanks, Bill Plashke, Mike Vacarro, John Kruk...

 

Unfortunately, Hendry is the GM of a Major League Baseball team. Not a guy writing about them.

 

That's a monster difference.

[CubColtPacer]

No we aren't. There are still plenty of dolts out there who think like this

 

True....Bill Shanks, Bill Plashke, Mike Vacarro, John Kruk...

 

Unfortunately, Hendry is the GM of a Major League Baseball team. Not a guy writing about them.

 

That's a monster difference.

 

I would say most of the GMs think the same way Hendry does. I'm not saying if it is right or not, but from their actions and words most GMs value the same types of things.