Hendry Is Perfect......So Far

[TheDude]

You're system of judgement will inevitably create a cloudy ranking where everybody is considered a good GM because they are a GM.

 

Ironically, I was thinking precisely the same thing about your system, applicable to either only 'good' or 'bad', with no other gradiation.

 

Under your system, Dombrowski in Detroit went from the best to the worst, and then back to the best again. He also went from the worst to the best with nearly the same team on the field. I'm not willing to buy that GM grades are black and white, or that his ability to manage shifted so drastically so quickly.

 

And you're not allowed to inject circumstances or exceptions into the logic, because that blows the whole system up. As soon as exceptions enter the discussion, Hendry gets a free pass, because the Cubs have been the king of exceptions (especially with regards to health).

[TheDude]

However, it's not a team that can finish over .500 as it is currently constructed.

 

I've seen this written more than once and I have to disagree. I think the current core make-up of the team is a .500 team, though not much better. The current team is not much different than last year's true, but it also isn't much different than core 2005 team, which essentially was a .500 team.

 

The problem with this thinking is, whatever you think they essentially were, or are, in reality, they were below .500. You can't just hand them .500 because we expect the bad breaks to even out.

 

You also can't hand them below .500 because you think the bad breaks will continue. The core of this team produced a near .500 record in 2005, and was with bad breaks, though not to the extent of last year. I think 2005 is much closer to the real Cubs team at present than 2006.

[goonys evil twin]

You're system of judgement will inevitably create a cloudy ranking where everybody is considered a good GM because they are a GM.

 

Ironically, I was thinking precisely the same thing about your system, applicable to either only 'good' or 'bad', with no other gradiation.

 

Under your system, Dombrowski in Detroit went from the best to the worst, and then back to the best again. He also went from the worst to the best with nearly the same team on the field. I'm not willing to buy that GM grades are black and white, or that his ability to manage shifted so drastically so quickly.

 

And you're not allowed to inject circumstances or exceptions into the logic, because that blows the whole system up. As soon as exceptions enter the discussion, Hendry gets a free pass, because the Cubs have been the king of exceptions (especially with regards to health).

 

When the exceptions include payroll they have to work with, time in office, and where the team was when they took over, that all matters. Dombrowski took over a terrible team that hadn't been above .500 in ten years. At the same time, Hendry took over a team that was one year off a 88 win season. Dombrowski made the team better after one season there, and then the team was great by his 4th season. Hendry's team got worse and worse. He also has a history of creating extremely talented teams in Montreal (but was forced to trade much of the talent away) and built and won with Florida.

 

I never claimed it was black and white based solely on record. Circustance matters. Health is not an exception, because health is something that you have to factor in to what you build. If you go with guys who have injury histories, odds are you will get hit by injury problems. Likewise, if you have a payroll in the top 25% of the game, but finish in the bottom 25%, two years in a row, you do not compare favorably with guys who get a lot less to work with, but finish similarly or better.

[goonys evil twin]

However, it's not a team that can finish over .500 as it is currently constructed.

 

I've seen this written more than once and I have to disagree. I think the current core make-up of the team is a .500 team, though not much better. The current team is not much different than last year's true, but it also isn't much different than core 2005 team, which essentially was a .500 team.

 

The problem with this thinking is, whatever you think they essentially were, or are, in reality, they were below .500. You can't just hand them .500 because we expect the bad breaks to even out.

 

You also can't hand them below .500 because you think the bad breaks will continue. The core of this team produced a near .500 record in 2005, and was with bad breaks, though not to the extent of last year. I think 2005 is much closer to the real Cubs team at present than 2006.

 

It's much smarter to assume setbacks than good luck. I hand them below .500 because they have finished below .500 back to back. They aren't "essentially" a .500 team because they didn't finish at .500.

[jmajew]

Hendry set the tone for all major free agents this offseason. After this Aramis deal there is no chance Soriano, Lee, or Drew will get much more than 16 mil a year. All other gms should be thankful to JH.

 

My predictions for the other 3...Soriano 5/80, Drew 4/52, Lee 5/65.

 

When it comes to the Free agent pitchers that is a completely different story. Those prices will be astronomical with guys like Lilly and Padilla making 7-8 mil a year.

 

Hendry has kept the status quo which is always a plus. However, the way he has done it and the prices he has done it at is what makes his offseason so far pretty darn good. If he goes out and signs some of those "good" pitchers on the market to deals of 7-8 million his good work here will be negated.

 

One free agent signing will not set the tone. While your numbers are probably close to what these players will receive, what will really set the bar is how much teams are willing to pay for a player's services. If two big market teams are bidding back and forth, the money could go much higher.

 

Furcal got way more than he deserved last year. That's because a team swooped in with a ridiculous offer to ensure that they were the team that landed him.

 

You may be right but I have a feeling teams will start the bidding much lower than they would have now that they saw what Ramirez signed for. Hopefully, we won't get any of those outrageous contracts again this year. Furcal is clearly not worth 13 million a year.

[BigbadB]

With Boras as an agent, you can expect he'll hold out as long as necessary to get his clients top dollar.

[UK1679666180]

I'd rather see Hendry build this team from a worst case scenario (Lee won't return to his '05 form), Barrett won't likely repeat his '06, no 2B, SS, CF, and a weak bench rather than Lee putting up MVP numbers, Barrett being the best offensive C, Cedeno progressing, Izturis doing what he did a couple years ago, etc.

 

That way it accounts for bumps along the way, it seems the Cubs operate under best case scenarios, where if the stars align they will do good.

 

Same goes pitching, assume that Prior won't stay healthy, assume that Hill will struggle his 2nd time thru the League.

 

They have the financial resources to do so.

[BigbadB]

However, it's not a team that can finish over .500 as it is currently constructed.

 

I've seen this written more than once and I have to disagree.

 

Izturis at SS, Theriot (unknown production level) or Cedeno at 2nd, Pie in CF? An outfield of Murton, Pie, Jones wouldn't be creating any buzz.

 

Zambrano, Hill and what? Prior? Miller? Marshall? Guzman? Marmol?

 

The only strength this team has right now is the bullpen. You are welcome to disagree. You just won't convince me that the team they have now is anything more than a .500 team at best.

 

I do believe that there are players available this offseason that would make this team the best in the NL Central on paper, but Hendry has a lot of work to do to make that happen. I wish him the best of luck and I hope he makes it happen.

 

I wasn't always a pessimist with this team/organization. It was only recently (within the last few years) that I lost my faith.

 

If Hendry can land Drew or Soriano, one of the 3 big FA pitchers and a couple of solid role players (Durham/Loretta/Lugo, etc...), he would restore some of my lost optimism.

[goonys evil twin]

I wasn't always a pessimist with this team/organization. It was only recently (within the last few years) that I lost my faith.

 

 

I had mucho faith in the late 90's and early 00's. I had high expectations for Hendry and the organization. I thought multiple 90+ win teams was not just possible, but likely.

 

Hendry blew it.

[Backtobanks]

I'd rather see Hendry build this team from a worst case scenario (Lee won't return to his '05 form), Barrett won't likely repeat his '06, no 2B, SS, CF, and a weak bench rather than Lee putting up MVP numbers, Barrett being the best offensive C, Cedeno progressing, Izturis doing what he did a couple years ago, etc.

 

That way it accounts for bumps along the way, it seems the Cubs operate under best case scenarios, where if the stars align they will do good.

 

Same goes pitching, assume that Prior won't stay healthy, assume that Hill will struggle his 2nd time thru the League.

 

They have the financial resources to do so.

 

Using a worst case scenario is as irrational as using the best case scenario. If you go into the season assuming the worst, then you have to fill all 25 positions because Zambrano's arm will fall off, Lee will be injured the whole year, ARam will break his leg hustling down the line, etc. I think you can expect a reasonable amount of production from established players and if they meet or exceed that production, you will probably have a winning year. If they fall below the reasonable expectations, then you will have a bad year.

[goonys evil twin]

I'd rather see Hendry build this team from a worst case scenario (Lee won't return to his '05 form), Barrett won't likely repeat his '06, no 2B, SS, CF, and a weak bench rather than Lee putting up MVP numbers, Barrett being the best offensive C, Cedeno progressing, Izturis doing what he did a couple years ago, etc.

 

That way it accounts for bumps along the way, it seems the Cubs operate under best case scenarios, where if the stars align they will do good.

 

Same goes pitching, assume that Prior won't stay healthy, assume that Hill will struggle his 2nd time thru the League.

 

They have the financial resources to do so.

 

Using a worst case scenario is as irrational as using the best case scenario. If you go into the season assuming the worst, then you have to fill all 25 positions because Zambrano's arm will fall off, Lee will be injured the whole year, ARam will break his leg hustling down the line, etc. I think you can expect a reasonable amount of production from established players and if they meet or exceed that production, you will probably have a winning year. If they fall below the reasonable expectations, then you will have a bad year.

 

If you choose to take the worst case scenerio theory to the extreme, you are right. But realistically speaking, it's not that drastic. Players will fall below the reasonable expectations. It's the GMs job to make sure that doesn't guarantee a bad year. You have to build in a cushion to withstand such setbacks.

[SouthSideRyan]

So if Tree does well on his test, Hendry will do well the rest of the offseason?

[UK1679666180]

Using a worst case scenario is as irrational as using the best case scenario. If you go into the season assuming the worst, then you have to fill all 25 positions because Zambrano's arm will fall off, Lee will be injured the whole year, ARam will break his leg hustling down the line, etc. I think you can expect a reasonable amount of production from established players and if they meet or exceed that production, you will probably have a winning year. If they fall below the reasonable expectations, then you will have a bad year.

 

Not even close to what I was getting at, my scenario has some reality involved.

 

There's nothing wrong with assuming that Ramirez will get injured, to help overcome, build a stronger bench under the assumption at some point Lee and/or Ramirez will miss some games. By having someone with above avg. power for a bench guy, it'll make that transition somewhat easier than going to Mabry.

 

As far as Lee not expecting to repeat his '05 numbers, he'll likely hit around his '04 numbers, so you build up that supporting cast so they don't to rely on requiring to put up MVP numbers. Same thing with Barrett.

 

That's completely different than your fantasy concept of Lee being injured the whole year and Ramirez breaking his leg.

 

My scenario would be the Cubs need two impact bats (middle and top of the order) and two impact starters (top and middle of the rotation) as well as improving the bench. Those moves would be based on worst case or worse (if you're semantical by nature) of a team able to overcome unusual amounts of injuries or players producing below reasonable expectations.

[CubsWin]

Jim hasn't done anything yet. He's managed to maintain a flawed roster. Congratulations. My doctor hasn't killed me yet, either.

I couldn't disagree more. Hendry signed Ramirez to an extension for a really great price leaving more money for the Cubs to get the other players they need. He also brought on board a 5th starter option who could be pretty good for just 1.5 guaranteed and brought back Kerry for only 1.75 guaranteed when he could have easily gotten more by going elsewhere. That's definitely doing something.

 

Jim has a very long way to go before he deserves any accolades. The most important part of this offseason was finding better players. He hasn't done that yet.

I couldn't agree more. He has a very long way to go and he doesn't deserve any praise until he returns the Cubs to the postseason. Clearly the most important part of the off season is yet to come.

[Guest]

Jim hasn't done anything yet. He's managed to maintain a flawed roster. Congratulations. My doctor hasn't killed me yet, either.

I couldn't disagree more. Hendry signed Ramirez to an extension for a really great price leaving more money for the Cubs to get the other players they need. He also brought on board a 5th starter option who could be pretty good for just 1.5 guaranteed and brought back Kerry for only 1.75 guaranteed when he could have easily gotten more by going elsewhere. That's definitely doing something.

 

Jim has a very long way to go before he deserves any accolades. The most important part of this offseason was finding better players. He hasn't done that yet.

I couldn't agree more. He has a very long way to go and he doesn't deserve any praise until he returns the Cubs to the postseason. Clearly the most important part of the off season is yet to come.

 

your doctor is probably just waiting for the cubs and bears to finish you off . . .

[goonys evil twin]

Jim hasn't done anything yet. He's managed to maintain a flawed roster. Congratulations. My doctor hasn't killed me yet, either.

I couldn't disagree more. Hendry signed Ramirez to an extension for a really great price leaving more money for the Cubs to get the other players they need. He also brought on board a 5th starter option who could be pretty good for just 1.5 guaranteed and brought back Kerry for only 1.75 guaranteed when he could have easily gotten more by going elsewhere. That's definitely doing something.

 

Jim has a very long way to go before he deserves any accolades. The most important part of this offseason was finding better players. He hasn't done that yet.

I couldn't agree more. He has a very long way to go and he doesn't deserve any praise until he returns the Cubs to the postseason. Clearly the most important part of the off season is yet to come.

 

The current Cubs are the same Cubs that stunk the past two years. He didn't bring a 5th starter onboard, Miller was already here. And he could just as easily be useless as he could be pretty good.

 

Hendry kept the team together so far. Big deal. He needs to make the team a lot better. He has not done that yet. People are getting excited about the 2006 team returning. I don't get it. He's positioned the team so that it can get better, but it has not yet gotten better.

[Backtobanks]

Jim hasn't done anything yet. He's managed to maintain a flawed roster. Congratulations. My doctor hasn't killed me yet, either.

I couldn't disagree more. Hendry signed Ramirez to an extension for a really great price leaving more money for the Cubs to get the other players they need. He also brought on board a 5th starter option who could be pretty good for just 1.5 guaranteed and brought back Kerry for only 1.75 guaranteed when he could have easily gotten more by going elsewhere. That's definitely doing something.

 

Jim has a very long way to go before he deserves any accolades. The most important part of this offseason was finding better players. He hasn't done that yet.

I couldn't agree more. He has a very long way to go and he doesn't deserve any praise until he returns the Cubs to the postseason. Clearly the most important part of the off season is yet to come.

 

The current Cubs are the same Cubs that stunk the past two years. He didn't bring a 5th starter onboard, Miller was already here. And he could just as easily be useless as he could be pretty good.

 

Hendry kept the team together so far. Big deal. He needs to make the team a lot better. He has not done that yet. People are getting excited about the 2006 team returning. I don't get it. He's positioned the team so that it can get better, but it has not yet gotten better.

 

So if he signs Schmidt, Zito, Soriano, CLee, and trades for ARod, Cabrera, and Tejada, he doesn't deserve any praise until the Cubs go to the postseason. He has done just about all that could be expected of him in 3 weeks. He's not finished ( by a long shot), but I think he will deserve praise if he builds a team that looks like it will be very competitive in the NL Central. Each step along the way will generate praise or criticism, but to dismiss everything he does until the Cubs actually go to the post-season isn't fair. The manager, coaches, and players also have some responsibility in getting to the post-season.

[goonys evil twin]

Jim hasn't done anything yet. He's managed to maintain a flawed roster. Congratulations. My doctor hasn't killed me yet, either.

I couldn't disagree more. Hendry signed Ramirez to an extension for a really great price leaving more money for the Cubs to get the other players they need. He also brought on board a 5th starter option who could be pretty good for just 1.5 guaranteed and brought back Kerry for only 1.75 guaranteed when he could have easily gotten more by going elsewhere. That's definitely doing something.

 

Jim has a very long way to go before he deserves any accolades. The most important part of this offseason was finding better players. He hasn't done that yet.

I couldn't agree more. He has a very long way to go and he doesn't deserve any praise until he returns the Cubs to the postseason. Clearly the most important part of the off season is yet to come.

 

The current Cubs are the same Cubs that stunk the past two years. He didn't bring a 5th starter onboard, Miller was already here. And he could just as easily be useless as he could be pretty good.

 

Hendry kept the team together so far. Big deal. He needs to make the team a lot better. He has not done that yet. People are getting excited about the 2006 team returning. I don't get it. He's positioned the team so that it can get better, but it has not yet gotten better.

 

So if he signs Schmidt, Zito, Soriano, CLee, and trades for ARod, Cabrera, and Tejada, he doesn't deserve any praise until the Cubs go to the postseason. He has done just about all that could be expected of him in 3 weeks. He's not finished ( by a long shot), but I think he will deserve praise if he builds a team that looks like it will be very competitive in the NL Central. Each step along the way will generate praise or criticism, but to dismiss everything he does until the Cubs actually go to the post-season isn't fair. The manager, coaches, and players also have some responsibility in getting to the post-season.

 

No. Signing those players would make the team better, which is what I said was necessary before praising him was justified. He doesn't deserve any praise until he improves the team. He has yet to do so.

[Jon]

Hendry signed Ramirez to a great deal, but it was a huge risk that I don't think was worth taking. Fork over another $5 or $6 million and Jim doesn't get this close to losing him. And if he did lose him, the team would be irreparable.

 

Overall, though, everything that has happened so far was expected and didn't take that much. Now he's just back to the same bad roster from last year. He actually has to make this team good now.

[CubsWin]

Jim hasn't done anything yet. He's managed to maintain a flawed roster. Congratulations. My doctor hasn't killed me yet, either.

I couldn't disagree more. Hendry signed Ramirez to an extension for a really great price leaving more money for the Cubs to get the other players they need. He also brought on board a 5th starter option who could be pretty good for just 1.5 guaranteed and brought back Kerry for only 1.75 guaranteed when he could have easily gotten more by going elsewhere. That's definitely doing something.

 

Jim has a very long way to go before he deserves any accolades. The most important part of this offseason was finding better players. He hasn't done that yet.

I couldn't agree more. He has a very long way to go and he doesn't deserve any praise until he returns the Cubs to the postseason. Clearly the most important part of the off season is yet to come.

 

The current Cubs are the same Cubs that stunk the past two years. He didn't bring a 5th starter onboard, Miller was already here. And he could just as easily be useless as he could be pretty good.

 

Hendry kept the team together so far. Big deal. He needs to make the team a lot better. He has not done that yet. People are getting excited about the 2006 team returning. I don't get it. He's positioned the team so that it can get better, but it has not yet gotten better.

Exactly, its no big deal. He's got a long way to go. We agree. We've stated that over and over again.

 

But he hasn't simply brought back the same people as last year. He has done so at a lower price tag than many thought possible. That's worth acknowledging, isn't it? I'm not saying we should get all excited about it and sing Hendry's praises. I'm just saying good job. Now the Cubs have even more money to go out and get the players they need to make the team good enough to make the playoffs.

 

If we are ready and willing to criticize every move the guy makes that we disagree with, shouldn't we also be willing to acknowledge a job well done? I can't imagine those players signing for any less than they did. Can you?

[goonys evil twin]

But he hasn't simply brought back the same people as last year. He has done so at a lower price tag than many thought possible.

 

Who thought that? Bruce Miles was talking a little less than what Aramis got. Sure, some people got goofy at the end and said sign him to whatever he wants even if it's $18m a year. But he ended up getting pretty much what everybody thought.

 

Plus, Wood is just about exactly what people thought. Low guarantee, incentives to get around $5m.

[treebird]

good news everyone, we can lock this thread now since it no longer holds true

[SouthSideRyan]

So you failed the test then?

[Burtonbell]

good news everyone, we can lock this thread now since it no longer holds true

 

LOL! In before the lock!

[treebird]

So you failed the test then?

 

i detonated on test, jim hendry should come take lessons on closing the deal