Tracking Cubs 2007 Payroll

[TheDude]

Wow, if we're only at 95 mil at this point in our spending spree, with a projected 125 spending limit, then we could afford 2 more impact players (through FA or trade)

 

We may or may not be at 95 mil, depending on whether you think the New York Times is a reliable source.

 

Bruce Miles carried the same Soriano contract details in his piece today, and he cited the AP as his source. There is no mention of how Soriano's bonus is spread however, so it could be 17 million in 2007, or 10 million with a million per year over 7 more years thereafter.

[sethuel1]

Wow, if we're only at 95 mil at this point in our spending spree, with a projected 125 spending limit, then we could afford 2 more impact players (through FA or trade)

 

We may or may not be at 95 mil, depending on whether you think the New York Times is a reliable source.

 

Bruce Miles carried the same Soriano contract details in his piece today, and he cited the AP as his source. There is no mention of how Soriano's bonus is spread however, so it could be 17 million in 2007, or 10 million with a million per year over 7 more years thereafter.

 

After this new information, let me amend my previous statement:

 

We may or may not be at 95 mil, depending on whether you think the New York Times, Bruce Miles, and the AP are reliable sources.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Wow, if we're only at 95 mil at this point in our spending spree, with a projected 125 spending limit, then we could afford 2 more impact players (through FA or trade)

 

We may or may not be at 95 mil, depending on whether you think the New York Times is a reliable source.

 

Bruce Miles carried the same Soriano contract details in his piece today, and he cited the AP as his source. There is no mention of how Soriano's bonus is spread however, so it could be 17 million in 2007, or 10 million with a million per year over 7 more years thereafter.

 

After this new information, let me amend my previous statement:

 

We may or may not be at 95 mil, depending on whether you think the New York Times, Bruce Miles, and the AP are reliable sources.

 

CT?

[Jazz]

Wow, if we're only at 95 mil at this point in our spending spree, with a projected 125 spending limit, then we could afford 2 more impact players (through FA or trade)

 

We may or may not be at 95 mil, depending on whether you think the New York Times is a reliable source.

 

Bruce Miles carried the same Soriano contract details in his piece today, and he cited the AP as his source. There is no mention of how Soriano's bonus is spread however, so it could be 17 million in 2007, or 10 million with a million per year over 7 more years thereafter.

 

After this new information, let me amend my previous statement:

 

We may or may not be at 95 mil, depending on whether you think the New York Times, Bruce Miles, and the AP are reliable sources.[/quote

 

ESPN.com has his salary right now at 10 mil for 2007. I think that goes along with the spreading the bonus out evenly throughtout the contract.

[LeftCoastCubFan]

11.000 – Zambrano (arbitration/contract estimate)

10.000 - Lilly (pending contract 4/40 details)

3.650 - Prior

1.500 - Miller

.380 – Hill (contract renewal estimate)

 

5 Starters at 26.530

 

5.333 - Dempster

3.833 - Eyre

4.500 - Howry

.700 - Cotts (arbitration/contract estimate)

1.750 - Wood

1.000 - Ohman (arbitration/contract estimate)

3.250 - Rusch

 

7 Relievers at 20.366

 

4.534 - Barrett

2.550 - Blanco (estimated pending signing bonus payment details)

 

2 Catchers at 7.084

 

13.000 - Lee

4.333 – DeRosa (estimated pending contract details)

4.250 – Izturis

13.000 - Ramirez

 

4 Infielders at 34.583

 

10.000 – Soriano

5.333 - Jones

.475 – Murton (contract renewal estimate)

 

3 Outfielders at 15.808

 

Total 21 players at 104.371 million

[Laura]

One thing to keep an eye on as further contract details emerge for Lilly is whether there was a signing bonus. The Cubs.com article notes

 

The final package may also include a $4 million signing bonus.

 

which may be why there seemed to be some confusion over whether the contract was 4/40 or 4/44 when it was first announced.

[UMFan83]

I also read somewhere that Lilly's contract is backloaded.

 

Probably about 15 million more to go for 3 players (not including Ward)

 

Thats 1 starter, 1 (starting or backup) OF, 1 bench IF

[TruffleShuffle]

Don't factor it into the total salary yet, but word is that Ward's contract is 1 year at $1.05M.

[LeftCoastCubFan]

Left-hander Ted Lilly officially joined the Cubs Friday, finalizing a $40 million, four-year contract agreed to last week at the winter meetings.

 

The 30-year-old receives a $4 million signing bonus, payable next month, and salaries of $5 million in 2007, $7 million in 2008 and $12 million in each of the next two years.

 

11.000 – Zambrano (arbitration/contract estimate)

9.000 - Lilly (4m signing bonus paid in 1st year, 5m base)

7.000 – Marquis (Pending contract details)

3.650 - Prior

1.500 - Miller

.380 – Hill (contract renewal estimate)

 

6 Starters at 32.530

 

5.333 - Dempster

3.833 - Eyre

4.500 - Howry

.700 - Cotts (arbitration/contract estimate)

1.750 - Wood

1.000 - Ohman (arbitration/contract estimate)

3.250 - Rusch

 

7 Relievers at 20.366

 

4.534 - Barrett

2.550 - Blanco (estimated pending signing bonus payment details)

 

2 Catchers at 7.084

 

13.000 - Lee

4.333 – DeRosa (estimated pending contract details)

4.250 – Izturis

13.000 - Ramirez

 

4 Infielders at 34.583

 

10.000 – Soriano

5.333 – Jones

1.050 – Ward (pending details)

.475 – Murton (contract renewal estimate)

 

4 Outfielders at 16.858

 

Total 23 players at 111.421 million

[Jazz]

Left-hander Ted Lilly officially joined the Cubs Friday, finalizing a $40 million, four-year contract agreed to last week at the winter meetings.

 

The 30-year-old receives a $4 million signing bonus, payable next month, and salaries of $5 million in 2007, $7 million in 2008 and $12 million in each of the next two years.

 

11.000 – Zambrano (arbitration/contract estimate)

9.000 - Lilly (4m signing bonus paid in 1st year, 5m base)

7.000 – Marquis (Pending contract details)

3.650 - Prior

1.500 - Miller

.380 – Hill (contract renewal estimate)

 

6 Starters at 32.530

 

5.333 - Dempster

3.833 - Eyre

4.500 - Howry

.700 - Cotts (arbitration/contract estimate)

1.750 - Wood

1.000 - Ohman (arbitration/contract estimate)

3.250 - Rusch

 

7 Relievers at 20.366

 

4.534 - Barrett

2.550 - Blanco (estimated pending signing bonus payment details)

 

2 Catchers at 7.084

 

13.000 - Lee

4.333 – DeRosa (estimated pending contract details)

4.250 – Izturis

13.000 - Ramirez

 

4 Infielders at 34.583

 

10.000 – Soriano

5.333 – Jones

1.050 – Ward (pending details)

.475 – Murton (contract renewal estimate)

 

4 Outfielders at 16.858

 

Total 23 players at 111.421 million

 

So I'm guessing this is it for spending really. I really am worried about what a new ownership is going to put the cubs spending limit at. Look at the team's contractual obligations for the future:

 

 

 

 

http://img320.imageshack.us/img320/3571/picture1yv6.png'

 

assuming that we are going to extend zambrano, next year's offseason will be abysmal unless we unload some of our contracts.

[obcubs]

Marquis gets $4.75 million next year, $6,375,000 in 2008 and $9,875,000 in 2009.

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16287633

[UMFan83]

I know we've said this many times, but the next GM of the Cubs is going to be doomed in 2009ish

[frostwyrm]

Marquis gets $4.75 million next year, $6,375,000 in 2008 and $9,875,000 in 2009.

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16287633

 

Another heavily backloaded deal. What an absolutely stunning shocking surprise. Judging from all this deferred debt you'd almost think the GM was in a panic to win now to save his job.

[Jazz]

payroll estimate update

 

http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/4707/picture2lb6.png

 

Factoring in a likely and hopeful Zambrano extension (for 15 mil per maybe) we would paying 80 million dollars to 6 players alone. I really hate this marquis contract now, and I hope we can trade him by the end of it. Either that or he becomes above average all of a sudden. Better hope Pie, Patterson, and the gang are all they're cracked up to be and more.

[frostwyrm]

http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/4707/picture2lb6.png

 

$72M already committed for 2009, and I can't say I see anything resembling $72M worth of production there, especially not if Tim is right about Aram suffering a sharp decline as he ages.

[Ivy Walls]

http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/4707/picture2lb6.png

 

$72M already committed for 2009, and I can't say I see anything resembling $72M worth of production there, especially not if Tim is right about Aram suffering a sharp decline as he ages.

 

That leaves $100M. My guess is that the Cubs plan a big acquisition this year taking the payroll (including Zambrano's extension) to $135M, but that is the plan.....it must be executed.

 

The things the Cubs must do is increase their payroll to the NYM's level and push StL and Hous to respond.

[LeftCoastCubFan]

Updated numbers. Sorry they aren’t as pretty as Jazz’s. :(

 

13.250 – Zambrano (raised contract estimate at midpoint of arbitration numbers)

9.000 - Lilly

4.750 – Marquis (updated for contract)

3.650 – Prior (arbitration estimate)

1.500 - Miller

.380 – Hill (contract renewal estimate)

 

6 Starters at 32.530

 

5.333 - Dempster

3.833 - Eyre

4.500 - Howry

.825 - Cotts (Updated for contract)

1.750 - Wood

.900 - Ohman (Updated for contract)

3.250 - Rusch

 

7 Relievers at 20.391

 

4.534 - Barrett

2.550 - Blanco (estimated pending signing bonus payment details)

 

2 Catchers at 7.084

 

13.000 - Lee

4.333 – DeRosa (estimated pending contract details)

4.250 – Izturis

13.000 - Ramirez

 

4 Infielders at 34.583

 

10.000 – Soriano

5.333 – Jones

3.000 – Floyd

1.050 – Ward

.475 – Murton (contract renewal estimate)

 

5 Outfielders at 19.858

 

Total 24 players at 114.446 million

 

With Rusch likely out and adding two young players, we've already crossed the 115 mil mark for the 25 man roster. If we extend Z and lower 2007 a bit, I sure won't complain. If the 120 mil number is true we have a bit of flexibility for a midseason trade.

[craig]

Note on accounting, budget, and signing bonuses.

1. Official mlb records, like NFL, account for all signing bonuses as prorated. That's how luxury tax stuff gets counted, for example.

 

2. Many other media sources get their team-contract information from the common mlb source. USAToday, for example, gets their info from mlb.

 

3. In NFL, when a player gets a big signing bonus, he gets a big signing bonus, right away. The team pays it right away (normally). But it gets prorated for salary cap accounting purposes. I believe the analogous situation applies for Cubs. Most of the signing bonuses are, well, signing bonuses! That get paid to the player when he signs or shortly thereafter. He can spend it, he can buy his wife or mom a new mansion, he can invest it, it's his money to use. And it's money spent out of the Cub coffers. mlb may prorate it, but there are indications that the Cubs do not, and budget in teh simple cookie jar way, they count it when they pay it.

 

4. As Hoops mentioned way early in thread, there are some signing bonuses that are *not* paid right away. Some have been paid out in January installments, and there have been media reports to that effect. (Derrek Lee previous deal, Jacque Jones...) While it's possible that this is common and it's only occassionally that the media ever finds out or bothers to report, my view is to assume that a signing bonus is a signing bonus paid immediately, unless told otherwise.

 

5. Point: By my count, I have the Cubs at a shade under $120,000, by counting offseason signing bonuses against this year's budget, unless reported otherwise. That includes the $3 due to Rusch, and uses a $12 estimate for Z and $3.7 for Prior.

 

I'm sure there are imperfections, but ballpark it seems around $120.

 

If you remove Rusch's contract, then it's not too far off from $115.

 

Hmm: $115-120, that seems to be right in the ballpark that all of the papers were suggesting back before any of the winter blitz began. That's a strong budget. But it's not exactly as if the Cubs are blitzing baseball with this extraordinary budget.

 

If you use the mlb prorating policy, I don't think it will count above $109. Certainly not an extraordinary budget relative to the industry or the market.

 

6) On backloading: It seems strongly backloaded toward 2009, if you are prorating. Marquis and Lilly jump either way. But if you're going from accounting Aram and Soriano as $8 and $9 this year (plus prorated bonus) and $16 and $16 in 09 (plus prorated bonus), it seems really steep.

 

But, if you're accounting by actual payouts, then Soriano and Aram sum to $30 this year and $32 in 2009, that's sub-inflation.

[LeftCoastCubFan]

Note on accounting, budget, and signing bonuses.

1. Official mlb records, like NFL, account for all signing bonuses as prorated. That's how luxury tax stuff gets counted, for example.

That’s why figures from the players union are more accurate then mlb. If you went to work last month and your boss told you were getting a bonus, wouldn’t it matter if it were paid in your last check of the year or your first of this year? It would to the IRS. It would to your bosses business for what tax year it was reported in and how much taxes both of you paid that year. Sammy Sosa was paid his signing bonus up front and was included with his reported salary that year. Most are paid out over years.

 

2. Many other media sources get their team-contract information from the common mlb source. USAToday, for example, gets their info from mlb.

Take a look at USA Today’s salary database come from “The data, compiled by USA TODAY, are based on documents filed with the Major League Player Relations Committee, Major League Baseball Players Association and information from team officials and players' agents”. The figures use the same method I am.

 

3. In NFL, when a player gets a big signing bonus, he gets a big signing bonus, right away. The team pays it right away (normally). But it gets prorated for salary cap accounting purposes. I believe the analogous situation applies for Cubs. Most of the signing bonuses are, well, signing bonuses! That get paid to the player when he signs or shortly thereafter. He can spend it, he can buy his wife or mom a new mansion, he can invest it, it's his money to use. And it's money spent out of the Cub coffers. mlb may prorate it, but there are indications that the Cubs do not, and budget in teh simple cookie jar way, they count it when they pay it.

This isn’t the NFL, and how salary caps and payroll taxes have nothing to do with proper accounting (.i.e. mlb luxury taxes are calculated based on the roster on 8/1, not total player expenses for the year). From a financial perspective, they better be when they pay it or some trib execs are going to jail.

 

4. As Hoops mentioned way early in thread, there are some signing bonuses that are *not* paid right away. Some have been paid out in January installments, and there have been media reports to that effect. (Derrek Lee previous deal, Jacque Jones...) While it's possible that this is common and it's only occassionally that the media ever finds out or bothers to report, my view is to assume that a signing bonus is a signing bonus paid immediately, unless told otherwise.

This isn’t accounting class, but an attempt to identify and compare team payrolls. Yes, if the bonus is paid before the New Year, it impacts their prior years finances (assuming their fiscal year is the calendar year), but we really don’t care. Unless mlb opens their books, of course we will never know. But we are trying to find out what they spent from the end of one season to the next, and this is extremely accurate.

 

5. Point: By my count, I have the Cubs at a shade under $120,000, by counting offseason signing bonuses against this year's budget, unless reported otherwise. That includes the $3 due to Rusch, and uses a $12 estimate for Z and $3.7 for Prior.

 

I'm sure there are imperfections, but ballpark it seems around $120.

 

If you remove Rusch's contract, then it's not too far off from $115.

 

Hmm: $115-120, that seems to be right in the ballpark that all of the papers were suggesting back before any of the winter blitz began. That's a strong budget. But it's not exactly as if the Cubs are blitzing baseball with this extraordinary budget.

 

If you use the mlb prorating policy, I don't think it will count above $109. Certainly not an extraordinary budget relative to the industry or the market.

As the count says, it’s about 115 mil when you factor in a few minimum wage players. I’m not sure what point you are trying to make here.

 

6) On backloading: It seems strongly backloaded toward 2009, if you are prorating. Marquis and Lilly jump either way. But if you're going from accounting Aram and Soriano as $8 and $9 this year (plus prorated bonus) and $16 and $16 in 09 (plus prorated bonus), it seems really steep.

 

But, if you're accounting by actual payouts, then Soriano and Aram sum to $30 this year and $32 in 2009, that's sub-inflation.

Sub-inflation? If you already know what the inflation rate will be the next 3 years or so let me know. I’ll make a fortune.

 

The reason people are concerned about the back loading is that if the budget doesn’t rise or is cut (new owner cuts payroll, economy tanks, etc) that there won’t be money to address other needs, especially if the players are hurt or underperforms.

[craig]

LeftCoast, I apologize if you took offense at my post. I was not trying to pick a fight, or to be disagreeable.

 

General points, not directed at or against you: Signing bonuses and their proration or lack thereof can significantly alter one's perspective on payroll. I have seen a range of payroll estimates, ranging from $109 (somebody who considers all signing bonuses prorated) to $115 (yours, for example, which considers signing bonuses prorated unless there has been report to the contrary, ala Aram and Lilly), to $119 (mine, for example, which has assumed signing bonuses were *not* prorated unless reported to the contrary.)

 

I'm pretty sure the USAToday database and whatever sources they derive it from, as well as other national media outlets, will go by the $109 listing, in which everything is counted as prorated. (Regardless of whether payments are actually over the years.)

 

But which is closest to what the Cubs mean? Often we get some indication about what the Cubs perhaps have had to spend, and it's fun to speculate on who they could afford with that, or whether they are spent out and major acqusitions are over. If we knew how the Cubs counted and where they were at, I could make more informed winter speculations!

 

Anyway, a couple of comments/questions or thoughts to which I'd appreciate your thoughts.

1. USATODAY's numbers and the sources from which they were derived do *not* accurately reflect when bonuses are actually paid. Sammy and Prior are cases in point. Sammy was paid a $6 bonus in 2001, but USATOday listings still prorated that over the guaranteed years of his deal. Likewise when the Cubs signed Prior, his bonus was paid that year according to reports, but USAToday listings still prorated it.

 

I conclude that USAToday's listings do not bother to discriminate whether a bonus is paid over years or not; it prorates them all over the guaranteed years of contract.

 

This means that neither USAToday nor the sources from which they borrow their info really are informing us about whether or not bonuses are normally paid over years or not.

 

Prediction: It's been reported that Aram and Lilly have bonuses that are *not* paid over years. I predict that USAToday listings will still have them prorated, and will list Aram at $9 rather than $13.

 

A related point is that Hendry and macP often made reference to their payroll, and routinely gave numbers that were not consistent with USAToday/ESPN listings. Which again supports my theory that assuming the Cubs are talking about actual payouts, that the USATOday listings are not.

 

2. I have always assumed that most bonuses were paid upon signing. So my default is to count a bonus against the upcoming season unless reported to contrary. Your budget is contrary; you assume it's paid over years unless there is report to the contrary. Thus you still have bonus payouts to Dempster and Eyre, I don't. And I have a big payout to Soriano, while you have that spread over the years.

 

You say that most bonuses are paid over years. This is a sincere and curious question, not intended to be an obnoxious one. How do you know that, and if you are at liberty to do so, can you provide any support or explanation for how you come to that conclusion? For all I know you may be an agent or work for Hendry or have access to union files that include player contracts, I have no idea. Are you sure? Or, for all I know, perhaps you have logically deduced that payouts are over years because that's how they always appear in USAToday-type listings, and your premise has been that those listings are usually accurate to when payments are actually made?

 

I'm sincerely asking. Having long assumed that most bonuses were made when the contract was signed, it will require a shift in thinking to assume exactly the reverse. So I want to be reassured that your view is truer than my old one before abandoning my old view!

 

Note: I have thought that Soriano's payments actually suggest that he is paid much or all of bonus originally. His contract, like Aram's, has a way extremely low first year salary, then a huge jump, and both have large signing bonuses. If Alf's is paid over years, and equally as your budget assumes (I think), then he's going to spiral a ton from year one to year two. But, if like Aram's the bonus was right away, then the combo of salary plus bonus isn't that anomolous with the subsequent year payouts.

 

 

Finally, this is a comment. I noted that if in fact Soriano got all of his bonus money this winter, then by actual payouts Soriano and Aram would sum to $30 this year, only $2 less than their combined $32 contracts in 2009 (assuming Soriano isn't getting paid any of the bonus money in 2009). I suggested that a $2 increase over a two-year span, relative to $30, was sub-inflation.

 

You joked in response, "Sub-inflation? If you already know what the inflation rate will be the next 3 years or so let me know. I’ll make a fortune."

 

Heh, suffice it to say that projecting **baseball** inflation to exceed 3% per year is not exactly requiring prophetic powers. In the last twenty years,has there been a single season other than the post-strike year in which baseball inflation as not been 3% or higher? I don't really think that it's in the least bit mockable to assume a baseball inflation rate of >3% per year over the next two.

 

Nor do I think it's the least bit blameworthy for a GM to do the same. If backloading to the extent of 6% over two years on your two biggest contracts is considered to be a big problem, I don't agree.

 

Now, backloading on Lilly and Marquis, that I don't much like!

 

But I still think my point (if Soriano's bonus is in fact paid out this winter, a point on which we may not agree about and on which I for one am not at all certain at this point that I am either right or wrong, but I am willing to be persuaded...) holds, that if those guys aren't problematically backloaded, the the budget as a whole isn't problematically backloaded. The Marquis/Lilly jumps are obnoxious and IMO undesirable, but I don't see them as crippling.

 

Obviously if the team sells to somebody who wants to drop from the $109-or-$115-or-$119 payroll to a $100 payroll, then the long-term commitments will allow very, very little future freedom.

 

I also understand that given the large number of substantial long-term contracts, combined with contracts that I hope have reason to be renewed and inflated (Z, Barrett, hopefully Prior will earn raises, and Wood too....), internal contract inflation could easily outpace any budget inflation.

 

The days of using extra money every year to buy outside players (Barrett, Lee, Aram were all money-based pickups in addition to the outside free agents) may be ending.

 

We may well need to depend on guys we already have or that we develop internally in the farm to augment our talent base. We may not be in budget position to buy any Sorianos or Lillys or Nomars or Lees in 2009. If what we've got internally isn't enough, we might be stuck. But hopefully the guys on the long-term commitments will produce and make a nice stable core to a winning future.

[wastra]

Sub-inflation? If you already know what the inflation rate will be the next 3 years or so let me know. I’ll make a fortune.

 

 

 

Inflation typically ranges from 2-3% annually. I'm not sure what kind fortune you can make off that, but Inflation isn't really a very difficult number to predict.

[Jazz]

updated salaries

 

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/617/picture1fk8.png

[LeftCoastCubFan]

updated salaries

 

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/617/picture1fk8.png

Jazz, the last cell of your spreadsheet isn’t included in the total. It should total 113.85, not 110.85.

 

I still have different figures for catchers. For Barrett USA Today has him paid for 2005 at 3.133 and for 2006 at 4.333 for a 2 year total of 7.466. His contract is for a total of 12.000, so that leaves 4.534 to be paid in 2007, not 4.700.

 

Blanco’s signing bonus isn’t included in your figures. It looks like it’s paid in the first year and he should be at 2.550, not 1.8.

 

Zambrano is now officially at 12.400.

[Jazz]

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/928/picture1se1.png

 

reupped to LCC's specs

[Omar]

With the addition of Bowen, does the payroll change?