Soriano Rejects Nationals Offer of 5 years and $70M?

[HoopsCubs]

In case anyone missed it:

 

 

http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/9723454

[wade]

So how the heck much will he cost anyone else?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

That may be the best offer he gets. I can't see anyone beating that by much. Maybe a 5/75 offer.

 

This could have more to do with the fact that Soriano wants to play second base and if a team wants him for the outfield it will cost a premium to get him to play there.

[goonys evil twin]

That may be the best offer he gets. I can't see anyone beating that by much. Maybe a 5/75 offer.

 

This could have more to do with the fact that Soriano wants to play second base and if a team wants him for the outfield it will cost a premium to get him to play there.

 

I would think it would mean that he wants more money and/or to play somewhere other than Washington, a low exposure team with limited endorsement options.

 

The initial reason for wanting to play 2B was 2B get a premium over corner OF for similar production. If he's already getting the money, there's really no justification for insisting on playing 2B. Other than his ego. But I think money and location (thus, potential for more money) probably plays a bigger role.

[radarluv1]

how about 5/70 and a chance to be the best CF in the league? in cubby blue?

[goonys evil twin]

Career OPS+ of 115

 

2006 OPS+ of 132 just surpasses previous career high in 2002.

 

Baseballreference lists most similar batter as ....... Aramis Ramirez. Most similar through age 30 was HoJo. (Ramirez's is Rolen through age 28)

 

 

I'm not very optimistic about Soriano's chances of coming close to justifying a $14m salary the next 5 years.

 

****I should add that pessimism is due to his inconsistency to date (and age). As a reference, Carlos Beltran's 2005 was as bad of a down year as Soriano's 2004, but Carlos rebounded in 2006 (153 OPS+) with a phenomenal year that Soriano hasn't approached. Soriano's rebound off the down year was a 110, a nice number, but clearly not a superstar. And while Beltran is 29, Soriano is turning 31 soon, so the likelihood of him ever being as good as Beltran was this year, is pretty low.

 

 

But, if you're getting a 115-120 OPS+ out of CF the next few years, that's going to really help, especially when compared with Pierre's 84.

Edited October 12, 2006 by goony's evil twin

[Careless]

Yeah... soriano just got a lot less appealing

[erik316wttn]

how about 5/70 and a chance to be the best CF in the league? in cubby blue?

 

Think we could get him for 5/60 if we promised him 2nd base?

[goonys evil twin]

how about 5/70 and a chance to be the best CF in the league? in cubby blue?

 

Think we could get him for 5/60 if we promised him 2nd base?

 

Why in the world would he take less money just to play 2B over OF?

[jtownie]

how about 5/70 and a chance to be the best CF in the league? in cubby blue?

 

Think we could get him for 5/60 if we promised him 2nd base?

 

Why in the world would he take less money just to play 2B over OF?

He might take a little less if he gets a NTC. I believe that is a big sticking point with him. DC wants nothing to do with it. Hendry doesn't seem to mind givng NTC's.

soriano's production would be nice in CF.

[goonys evil twin]

how about 5/70 and a chance to be the best CF in the league? in cubby blue?

 

Think we could get him for 5/60 if we promised him 2nd base?

 

Why in the world would he take less money just to play 2B over OF?

He might take a little less if he gets a NTC. I believe that is a big sticking point with him. DC wants nothing to do with it. Hendry doesn't seem to mind givng NTC's.

soriano's production would be nice in CF.

 

Unless his agent has misread the market, I doubt he ends up taking less than what Washington offered. I wonder if this deal was a straight up 5 years or if the team held options that Soriano balked at.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

WRONG WRONG WRONG!!!!!!!

 

Desperate teams that have screwed up and find themselves in a hole, need to overpay to get talent. That is the cost of your past mistakes.

 

Look at Detroit. I sure wouldn't have paid what they paid for Ordonez and I-Rod. Kenny Rogers either. But they wouldn't be where they are without them. Would the Dodgers have made the playoffs without Furcal?

 

Look, the Cubs suck. But they do have money. Hendry can buy his way out of the hole if for ONCE, he uses his money to get two or three talented players that are actual difference makers, instead of four or five mediocrities with the same money, who make NO difference to the team.

 

Soriano 5/80, OK, pay it. We need the player.

[Tedward]

Soriano 5/80, OK, pay it. We need the player.

 

Along your line of thinking, considering what the Mets gave Beltran two years ago, that doesn't seem too unreasonable.

[soccer10k]

My initial reaction is that Soriano doesn't want to play in Washington. I would think that is close to the best offer he is going to get from any team.

[erik316wttn]

how about 5/70 and a chance to be the best CF in the league? in cubby blue?

 

Think we could get him for 5/60 if we promised him 2nd base?

 

Why in the world would he take less money just to play 2B over OF?

 

I figured because he hated the OF so much and has made it well known he wants to go back to 2B.

[erik316wttn]

WRONG WRONG WRONG!!!!!!!

 

Desperate teams that have screwed up and find themselves in a hole, need to overpay to get talent. That is the cost of your past mistakes.

 

Look at Detroit. I sure wouldn't have paid what they paid for Ordonez and I-Rod. Kenny Rogers either. But they wouldn't be where they are without them. Would the Dodgers have made the playoffs without Furcal?

 

Look, the Cubs suck. But they do have money. Hendry can buy his way out of the hole if for ONCE, he uses his money to get two or three talented players that are actual difference makers, instead of four or five mediocrities with the same money, who make NO difference to the team.

 

Soriano 5/80, OK, pay it. We need the player.

 

But if you overpay too much, you run the risk of the contract becoming an albatross and then you're in an even deeper hole.

 

Detroit had to overpay grossly because they were coming off a 119-loss season. The Cubs weren't quite that bad.

[goonys evil twin]

how about 5/70 and a chance to be the best CF in the league? in cubby blue?

 

Think we could get him for 5/60 if we promised him 2nd base?

 

Why in the world would he take less money just to play 2B over OF?

 

I figured because he hated the OF so much and has made it well known he wants to go back to 2B.

 

Has he? I was under the impression that the initial hate for the OF was about how it might downgrade his value (taking away the 2B premium), and that after playing out there, he was fine with it.

[goonys evil twin]

WRONG WRONG WRONG!!!!!!!

 

Desperate teams that have screwed up and find themselves in a hole, need to overpay to get talent. That is the cost of your past mistakes.

 

Look at Detroit. I sure wouldn't have paid what they paid for Ordonez and I-Rod. Kenny Rogers either. But they wouldn't be where they are without them. Would the Dodgers have made the playoffs without Furcal?

 

Look, the Cubs suck. But they do have money. Hendry can buy his way out of the hole if for ONCE, he uses his money to get two or three talented players that are actual difference makers, instead of four or five mediocrities with the same money, who make NO difference to the team.

 

Soriano 5/80, OK, pay it. We need the player.

 

Who is WRONG WRONG WRONG!!!!!!?????

 

 

I'm not a big Soriano fan, but the Cubs are in a position where if they could get him for CF, or 2B, they probably need to.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's a valid point in overpaying for great production when it becomes available, like Beltran or Ordonez. Problem is Soriano hasn't shown near the consistency in that aspect, and only this year has he really lived up to his previous hype. I don't think he's a good gamble for that type of deal.

[goonys evil twin]

Soriano 5/80, OK, pay it. We need the player.

 

Along your line of thinking, considering what the Mets gave Beltran two years ago, that doesn't seem too unreasonable.

 

Beltran two years ago was 3 years younger than Soriano is now, and Beltran is better. Carlos essentially has 5/87 (with much of it deferred) left on his deal, and is 1.5 years younger, and was significantly more productive this year. I'd bet Beltran is much better the next 5 years. But the Cubs missed that boat.

[Tedward]

Beltran two years ago was 3 years younger than Soriano is now, and Beltran is better. Carlos essentially has 5/87 (with much of it deferred) left on his deal, and is 1.5 years younger, and was significantly more productive this year. I'd bet Beltran is much better the next 5 years. But the Cubs missed that boat.

 

Yeah, I'm starting to see what you mean. Looking at Soriano's OPS the past couple of years, he went .807, .821, and finally .911 this season. His K's were sharply up this year too which I find interesting. I'm starting to doubt what player we would get, the player from two & three years ago or this year's version.

[FergieJ31]

WRONG WRONG WRONG!!!!!!!

 

Desperate teams that have screwed up and find themselves in a hole, need to overpay to get talent. That is the cost of your past mistakes.

 

Look at Detroit. I sure wouldn't have paid what they paid for Ordonez and I-Rod. Kenny Rogers either. But they wouldn't be where they are without them. Would the Dodgers have made the playoffs without Furcal?

 

Look, the Cubs suck. But they do have money. Hendry can buy his way out of the hole if for ONCE, he uses his money to get two or three talented players that are actual difference makers, instead of four or five mediocrities with the same money, who make NO difference to the team.

 

Soriano 5/80, OK, pay it. We need the player.

 

I agree with the general thought that sometimes you simply must overpay to get the talent, but Alfonso is not that talent. His 2006 is the classic contract year. The time to overpay was two years ago when Beltran was a FA (yeah I know, Sammy's contract yada yada).

 

Prediction: Cardinals sign Soriano for 5/80 or thereabouts.

[CubinNY]

WRONG WRONG WRONG!!!!!!!

 

Desperate teams that have screwed up and find themselves in a hole, need to overpay to get talent. That is the cost of your past mistakes.

 

Look at Detroit. I sure wouldn't have paid what they paid for Ordonez and I-Rod. Kenny Rogers either. But they wouldn't be where they are without them. Would the Dodgers have made the playoffs without Furcal?

 

Look, the Cubs suck. But they do have money. Hendry can buy his way out of the hole if for ONCE, he uses his money to get two or three talented players that are actual difference makers, instead of four or five mediocrities with the same money, who make NO difference to the team.

 

Soriano 5/80, OK, pay it. We need the player.

 

I agree with the general thought that sometimes you simply must overpay to get the talent, but Alfonso is not that talent. His 2006 is the classic contract year. The time to overpay was two years ago when Beltran was a FA (yeah I know, Sammy's contract yada yada).

 

Prediction: Cardinals sign Soriano for 5/80 or thereabouts.

 

[obliglatory comment] I am still pissed about not getting Beltran.[/obliglatory comment]

[jmajew]

I want nothing to do with Soriano if he wants more than 5/70. I think giving him a more than 4 years is a big mistake, espeically if he wants 15-16 a year. That means that last year of the contract will be a waste. With that said I also don't want Carlos Lee. My bet is he will get 5/60 - 5/75 and that is too much for him. I don't see either of their production being all that much better than a guy like Mike Cameron's. And Cameron would cost half the price.

 

I'm going to say this...I'd much rather have a combination of a CF/2b of Cameron/Lugo/Durham/Loretta/Lofton than spend the money on guys like Soriano or Lee. If we can spend money on guys like A-Rod, Andruw Jones, and Vernon Wells that'd be fine but don't do it on highly overrated players.

 

I don't know where to find this but could someone give me the winshares of a combo Cameron/Lugo and compare that to both Lee and Soriano. I wonder which would net you more. That is assuming if we get Lugo he will start at SS and Izturis/Theriot/Cedeno would battle it out for 2b.

Edited October 12, 2006 by jmajew

[Andy]

Soriano will be this offseason's Beltre. I guarantee it.

 

And he will sign for not much more than 5/70, if at all. I just don't think he wants to play in Washington.