Baseball situational question.

[chuckywang]

Let's say you were in the 3rd inning down 1 run. The top 3 guys in your lineup are all very solid hitters.

There are two outs and you have your pitcher up. Now, would you rather have your pitcher reach base or not?

 

Would you rather have

 

1) Your leadoff guy at the plate with 2 outs and a man on 1st

 

or

 

2) Your leadoff guy at the plate with no outs and no one on.

 

Which situation would result in a better chance to score that tying run?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Let's say you were in the 3rd inning down 1 run. The top 3 guys in your lineup are all very solid hitters.

There are two outs and you have your pitcher up. Now, would you rather have your pitcher reach base or not?

 

Would you rather have

 

1) Your leadoff guy at the plate with 2 outs and a man on 1st

 

or

 

2) Your leadoff guy at the plate with no outs and no one on.

 

Which situation would result in a better chance to score that tying run?

 

If I'm remembering correctly, the run expectancy is better with choice two.

[CoolHandLuke]

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html

[chuckywang]

Well, the real statistic is the run expentancy with your 1st, 2nd, 3rd guy leading off an inning vs. your 2nd, 3rd, 4th guy.

 

Cause you're gonna have the bases empty, no out situation no matter what next inning.

[Balsa]

I don't think it really matters does it?

[Guest]

in situation one you have opportunities to score in two innings instead of just one - therefore you would add the run expectancies. one has to be better unless you have nothing after your third hitter.

[Abe Frohman]

You NEVER want to give the team an out unless you are sacrificing.

[FergieJ31]

Let's say you were in the 3rd inning down 1 run. The top 3 guys in your lineup are all very solid hitters.

There are two outs and you have your pitcher up. Now, would you rather have your pitcher reach base or not?

 

Would you rather have

 

1) Your leadoff guy at the plate with 2 outs and a man on 1st

 

or

 

2) Your leadoff guy at the plate with no outs and no one on.

 

Which situation would result in a better chance to score that tying run?

 

I'd rather have the pitcher reach base. It's not even close.

[chuckywang]

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html

 

Off topic, but based on this information, has their been any analysis done on when it would be advantageous to bunt, as opposed to swinging away?

 

Any sabermatric guys out there?

[UK1679666180]

Depends on the abilities of the hitter...

 

I don't know if there's an exact cut-off as far as quality of hitter but I have to believe that the advancement of the batter by a weak hitting pitcher is worth more than expecting him to be more productive in a standard AB.

 

Maybe when the value of a sac. bunt is greater than the value of run production/PAs, using the same formulas like Linear Weights or XR.

 

I have to imagine some of the weak hitters get less production per PA than they would if they had the option to sac. bunt every time.

 

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php

[biittner77]

"In that situation I'd have my pitcher lay down a sac. bunt"

- Neifi Perez

[daske17]

"In that situation I'd hit a lazy pop fly to the shortstop"

- Neifi Perez

 

-fixed