Ichiro Rumor???

[soccer10k]

Could he play CF? What's his contract like?

 

Three things come to mind:

 

(1) Ichiro is under contract for $11M in 2007. Free agent after the 2007 season.

(2) Near as I can tell, he did not get a no-trade clause in his last deal.

(3) On several occasions last year and last offseason, Suzuki questioned Seattle's commitment to winning and their managerial choice.

 

If there is a private feeling amongst Seattle management and/or Ichiro that he will not be a Mariner in 2008, it may be in everybody's best interest to deal him this offseason. Cubs certainly have the financial wherewithall to get him, and his OBP would be a big improvement.

 

Cot's has Ichiro without a no-trade clause.

[SCCubbieFAN]

I said the difference between a .330obp and a .360obp is not significant because a .333obp means the guy gets on base 3 out of 10 times at bat. To get to 4 out of every 10 times at bat, the guy needs an obp of .400. An obp of .365 means you are getting on base 3.5 times out of every 10 at bats. Is it "better", sure it is. Is it "significantly" better? That depends on your definition of significant.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I said the difference between a .330obp and a .360obp is not significant because a .333obp means the guy gets on base 3 out of 10 times at bat. To get to 4 out of every 10 times at bat, the guy needs an obp of .400. An obp of .365 means you are getting on base 3.5 times out of every 10 at bats. Is it "better", sure it is. Is it "significantly" better? That depends on your definition of significant.

 

The difference in that OBP is ~20 extra times on base over the course of the year. Off hand I don't know the probability of a player scoring(this would of course vary with how many XBH make up the 20 extra times on base), but if half those times the player scores it's basically equivalent to a full win. I'd consider that pretty significant.

 

EDIT: And a .333 OBP is 3.33 times out of 10 on base(not 3), and a .365 is 3.65 times out of 10(not 3.5)

[SCCubbieFAN]

I said the difference between a .330obp and a .360obp is not significant because a .333obp means the guy gets on base 3 out of 10 times at bat. To get to 4 out of every 10 times at bat, the guy needs an obp of .400. An obp of .365 means you are getting on base 3.5 times out of every 10 at bats. Is it "better", sure it is. Is it "significantly" better? That depends on your definition of significant.

 

The difference in that OBP is ~20 extra times on base over the course of the year. Off hand I don't know the probability of a player scoring(this would of course vary with how many XBH make up the 20 extra times on base), but if half those times the player scores it's basically equivalent to a full win. I'd consider that pretty significant.

 

EDIT: And a .333 OBP is 3.33 times out of 10 on base(not 3), and a .365 is 3.65 times out of 10(not 3.5)

 

my bad (math) :oops:

[hardcorecubfan]

A quick google of "Cubs Ichiro" came up with a Mariners message board where there's a thread about the Cubs having tried to get Ichiro for Maddux. Or course it's just a message board rumor, but this could show that there was previous interest by the Cubs...

 

http://mb8.scout.com/fseattlemarinersfrm1.showMessage?topicID=10135.topic

 

EDIT: Someone later in the thread indicates he has a NTC through '07.

 

Thank you, I just wanted to know where this got started

[neely crenshaw]

If you trade for Ichiro there is the possibility that he is a one year rental. We could have to give up some good prospects for him. Is that worth it? Maybe he'd work out an extension, but do we want to give an extension to a 33 year old OF who will demand big bucks?

 

I think if Hendry was interested in making a trade for Ichiro it would be with the understanding that he would be willing to sign a new deal with the Cubs. I'm betting that it would take a minimum of four years $48-50 million for Ichiro to keep from becoming a one-year rental.

 

kinda like he did with pierre....it's not a done deal that he would do that.

ichiro can flat out play...his obp this year might be 360 but he might hit 360 next year. not too mention he has a better arm than all 3 cub outfielders combined...

[Banedon]

A quick google of "Cubs Ichiro" came up with a Mariners message board where there's a thread about the Cubs having tried to get Ichiro for Maddux. Or course it's just a message board rumor, but this could show that there was previous interest by the Cubs...

 

http://mb8.scout.com/fseattlemarinersfrm1.showMessage?topicID=10135.topic

 

EDIT: Someone later in the thread indicates he has a NTC through '07.

 

Thank you, I just wanted to know where this got started

 

Well that thread is a couple months old too, so that may not be the source that your friends heard from, but that's the best I can find.

[Guest]

the difference in arm strength cannot be overstated. while I think he could play cf and that he will maintain his obp for a few more years, $11 million and prospects sounds a bit much to me.

[Guest]

I said the difference between a .330obp and a .360obp is not significant because a .333obp means the guy gets on base 3 out of 10 times at bat. To get to 4 out of every 10 times at bat, the guy needs an obp of .400. An obp of .365 means you are getting on base 3.5 times out of every 10 at bats. Is it "better", sure it is. Is it "significantly" better? That depends on your definition of significant.

 

The difference in that OBP is ~20 extra times on base over the course of the year. Off hand I don't know the probability of a player scoring(this would of course vary with how many XBH make up the 20 extra times on base), but if half those times the player scores it's basically equivalent to a full win. I'd consider that pretty significant.

 

EDIT: And a .333 OBP is 3.33 times out of 10 on base(not 3), and a .365 is 3.65 times out of 10(not 3.5)

 

batting in front of lee and ramirez makes it very significant.

[CuseCubFan69]

I said the difference between a .330obp and a .360obp is not significant because a .333obp means the guy gets on base 3 out of 10 times at bat. To get to 4 out of every 10 times at bat, the guy needs an obp of .400. An obp of .365 means you are getting on base 3.5 times out of every 10 at bats. Is it "better", sure it is. Is it "significantly" better? That depends on your definition of significant.

 

The difference in that OBP is ~20 extra times on base over the course of the year. Off hand I don't know the probability of a player scoring(this would of course vary with how many XBH make up the 20 extra times on base), but if half those times the player scores it's basically equivalent to a full win. I'd consider that pretty significant.

 

EDIT: And a .333 OBP is 3.33 times out of 10 on base(not 3), and a .365 is 3.65 times out of 10(not 3.5)

 

batting in front of lee and ramirez makes it very significant.

 

That could be a difficult thing to do with Ramirez playing on another team.

[NorthsideAvenger]

I said the difference between a .330obp and a .360obp is not significant because a .333obp means the guy gets on base 3 out of 10 times at bat. To get to 4 out of every 10 times at bat, the guy needs an obp of .400. An obp of .365 means you are getting on base 3.5 times out of every 10 at bats. Is it "better", sure it is. Is it "significantly" better? That depends on your definition of significant.

 

The difference in that OBP is ~20 extra times on base over the course of the year. Off hand I don't know the probability of a player scoring(this would of course vary with how many XBH make up the 20 extra times on base), but if half those times the player scores it's basically equivalent to a full win. I'd consider that pretty significant.

 

EDIT: And a .333 OBP is 3.33 times out of 10 on base(not 3), and a .365 is 3.65 times out of 10(not 3.5)

 

batting in front of lee and ramirez makes it very significant.

 

That could be a difficult thing to do with Ramirez playing on another team.

 

I said it before, and I will say it again, ARam will be the 2007 starting third baseman for the Cubs. Even Hendry knows after maybe ARam and Crede, it is a depressed market for third baseman. And unless Hendry thinks outside of the box, and thinks Freel or Figgins would be a solid addiition, I believe Hendry will make re-signing ARam a TOP priority.

 

And if the Cubs could somehow land Ichiro, without giving up Pawelek/Veal/Gallagher/Pie, then I would say go for it, especially if Ichiro would sign a 2 yr extension.

[goonys evil twin]

That could be a difficult thing to do with Ramirez playing on another team.

 

I said it before' date=' and I will say it again, ARam will be the 2007 starting third baseman for the Cubs. [/quote']

 

If Hendry has any sense at all, this will be true. I've felt all along that Ramirez just wants his 2 year deal to look more like a 4/5 year deal. Unless Hendry feels Ramirez is some sort of choker for not carrying the team in April/May, or Ramirez has become completely disgusted with this team, I feel he's going to stay. Jim usually finds a way to keep the guys he wants. He'll overpay if need be, but he gets that part done.

[Guest]

That could be a difficult thing to do with Ramirez playing on another team.

 

I said it before' date=' and I will say it again, ARam will be the 2007 starting third baseman for the Cubs. [/quote']

 

If Hendry has any sense at all, this will be true. I've felt all along that Ramirez just wants his 2 year deal to look more like a 4/5 year deal. Unless Hendry feels Ramirez is some sort of choker for not carrying the team in April/May, or Ramirez has become completely disgusted with this team, I feel he's going to stay. Jim usually finds a way to keep the guys he wants. He'll overpay if need be, but he gets that part done.

 

this is a situation where he needs to overpay. ramirez is young enough to be worth it.

[CubsInNC]

.311/.360/.392, that's a nice line for a 2B, not so much for a RF. Ichiro is a good player, with some freaky abilities. But overall, he doesn't bring a ton to the table. His OPS+ was 135 in 2004, which is very good, but it was 110 and 109 in 2003 and 2005. He'll be 33 next season, and coming off what is probably going to be his worst year in the majors.

 

I fear you'll be paying (money and prospects) for the reputation, hype and name, moreso than for what the player will do for you on the field in 2007. If you have him in center, leading off, he would certainly be an upgrade over Pierre. And if he's in center next year and Pierre is nowhere to be seen, I'll be happy as heck. But I can only assume Seattle will be looking for even more than what the Cubs gave up for Pierre, and then you're looking at a 33 year old soon to be free agent who will probably be looking for a pretty hefty contract to return in 2008 and beyond.

 

I'm all about the OBP he'd bring, but since it's so AVG dependent, can we really expect it to remain so high?

 

Goony, I agree with your sentiments, as much of his OBP is BA driven, and he's getting slower with age. However, would a 1 year rental, for the cost of slightly more than we paid Fla be too much, if we also signed Soriano at 2B and moved Jones to CF? We'd have a CF with above average SLG, and 2B with above average SLG as well. Would a 1-2 with Murton & Ichiro get on base enough in front of Lee-Ramirez-Soriano-Barrett-Jones to work well enough? With that lineup, there'd be times I'd bat the Pitcher 8th (Z, etc) in front of Izturis.

[Guest]

I would only pursue ichiro as a one year rental if I thought we could win the world series next year.

[radarluv1]

.311/.360/.392, that's a nice line for a 2B, not so much for a RF. Ichiro is a good player, with some freaky abilities. But overall, he doesn't bring a ton to the table. His OPS+ was 135 in 2004, which is very good, but it was 110 and 109 in 2003 and 2005. He'll be 33 next season, and coming off what is probably going to be his worst year in the majors.

 

I fear you'll be paying (money and prospects) for the reputation, hype and name, moreso than for what the player will do for you on the field in 2007. If you have him in center, leading off, he would certainly be an upgrade over Pierre. And if he's in center next year and Pierre is nowhere to be seen, I'll be happy as heck. But I can only assume Seattle will be looking for even more than what the Cubs gave up for Pierre, and then you're looking at a 33 year old soon to be free agent who will probably be looking for a pretty hefty contract to return in 2008 and beyond.

 

I'm all about the OBP he'd bring, but since it's so AVG dependent, can we really expect it to remain so high?

 

Goony, I agree with your sentiments, as much of his OBP is BA driven, and he's getting slower with age. However, would a 1 year rental, for the cost of slightly more than we paid Fla be too much, if we also signed Soriano at 2B and moved Jones to CF? We'd have a CF with above average SLG, and 2B with above average SLG as well. Would a 1-2 with Murton & Ichiro get on base enough in front of Lee-Ramirez-Soriano-Barrett-Jones to work well enough? With that lineup, there'd be times I'd bat the Pitcher 8th (Z, etc) in front of Izturis.

 

how much more would andruw jones cost? that would give some pop in the OF, just in an unusual spot. we could keep jjones in RF and have a theriot/fontenot type at 2b. murton could hit 6th or 2nd with a new manager, and 2b could leadoff.

[CubsInNC]

.311/.360/.392, that's a nice line for a 2B, not so much for a RF. Ichiro is a good player, with some freaky abilities. But overall, he doesn't bring a ton to the table. His OPS+ was 135 in 2004, which is very good, but it was 110 and 109 in 2003 and 2005. He'll be 33 next season, and coming off what is probably going to be his worst year in the majors.

 

I fear you'll be paying (money and prospects) for the reputation, hype and name, moreso than for what the player will do for you on the field in 2007. If you have him in center, leading off, he would certainly be an upgrade over Pierre. And if he's in center next year and Pierre is nowhere to be seen, I'll be happy as heck. But I can only assume Seattle will be looking for even more than what the Cubs gave up for Pierre, and then you're looking at a 33 year old soon to be free agent who will probably be looking for a pretty hefty contract to return in 2008 and beyond.

 

I'm all about the OBP he'd bring, but since it's so AVG dependent, can we really expect it to remain so high?

 

Goony, I agree with your sentiments, as much of his OBP is BA driven, and he's getting slower with age. However, would a 1 year rental, for the cost of slightly more than we paid Fla be too much, if we also signed Soriano at 2B and moved Jones to CF? We'd have a CF with above average SLG, and 2B with above average SLG as well. Would a 1-2 with Murton & Ichiro get on base enough in front of Lee-Ramirez-Soriano-Barrett-Jones to work well enough? With that lineup, there'd be times I'd bat the Pitcher 8th (Z, etc) in front of Izturis.

 

how much more would andruw jones cost? that would give some pop in the OF, just in an unusual spot. we could keep jjones in RF and have a theriot/fontenot type at 2b. murton could hit 6th or 2nd with a new manager, and 2b could leadoff.

 

I think any package the Braves asked for, for A. Jones would start with Pie+Hill+Epatt and go up from there.