Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-27-2006

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Boise scoreless after 2.

 

Pawelek's second inning:

 

Groundout, 5-3.

K.

BB.

K.

 

2 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 1 BB, 3 K

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Peoria and Quad Cities are tied at 1 after 4. Peoria scored their run on a wild pitch. Atkins: 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K.

 

Pawelek's third inning:

 

Single to RF.

K.

K.

Groundout, 1-3 (after Puello dropped a foul pop up that would have been the third out).

 

Mark: 3 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 5 K.

 

Boise is scoreless in the middle of the 4th.

Edited August 27, 2006 by CaliforniaRaisin

[ChiefsVoice]

If he gets in a little better shape i think the velocity could go up much like Gallagher did last off-season.

 

He's listed at 6'3 240 pounds. I take it there's room to lose some of the baby fat and add muscle?

 

thats putting it nicely!

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pawelek's fourth inning:

 

Single to LF.

FC, 5-4.

K.

Lineout to LF.

 

4 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 K

 

Still 0-0.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

In the top of the 5th, Matt Matulia with a 2-run double to score Matt Canepa and Matt Camp. That's a lot of Matts in one play. Boise leads it 2-0 in the middle of the 5th.

 

Tyler Colvin 0/3, 2 Ks

 

Pawelek's 5th:

 

Double.

FC, 3-unassisted. Great diving stop by Canzler. Runner to third.

RBI single.

Stolen base.

Ground out, 4-3. Nice play by Clevenger at second base. Runner to third.

Soft lineout to third base.

 

5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K

 

After 5, Boise leads Yakima 2-1. Mark will probably be done for the day or go out for the 6th on a short leash.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Russ Canzler!! He hits his 15th HR to lead off the 6th inning!! He ties Todd Greene for the Boise all-time HR record in a single season (and he also ties the NWL lead).

 

Mark Pawelek's day is indeed over. His final line: 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K.

 

Jason Ruhlman now in for Boise. 3-1 Boise in the middle of the 6th.

Edited August 27, 2006 by CaliforniaRaisin

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Peoria down 6-1 after 6. Quad Cities will clinch a playoff spot if they hold on.

 

Mitch Atkins: 5+ IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K - 2 of the runs charged to Atkins scored on a 3-run HR off Jon Mueller.

[Flames24Rulz]

Nashville lost 2-0, so Iowa has cut the lead down to 2 games in the division.

[Mephistopheles]

HR/9, BB/9, and WHIP.

 

He doesn't strike me as a future ace due to the lack of Ks, but as long as he keeps those three things in line, he should have a good future.

 

Whether or not he does is anyone's guess, but a 19 year old performing at this level is always a positive thing.

 

his low HR total is a fluke. About 12 percent of outfield flyballs should go for HRs. Anything less or more is a flukish, right now Taylor is at 4.7%, meaning he should allowed about 3 times as many HR. THe 16 additional HR would add to his WHIP and BB/9 (less outs) and more importantly, using just linear wieghts it would add roughly 20-25 runs allowed, all of sudden his ERA is around 4.90 give or take.

 

It's all a fluke and I am not impressed.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Peoria scores 2 in the 7th (Carter BB, Reed BB, Heredia single, and back-to-back RBI grounds out by Chirinos and Valdez). They lose 6-3, get swept in the doubleheader. Quad Cities make the playoffs.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Tyler Colvin with a 3-run HR in the top of the 7th and Boise now leads it 6-1 in the top of the 8th.

 

Colvin: 1 for 4, HR (6), 3 RBI, 2 Ks

Canzler: 1 for 3, HR (15), BB, RBI

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Boise wins it 14-1, scoring 8 in the 9th inning thanks in part to two Yakima errors. It's Mark Pawelek's third professional win.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Ron, you're coming in staticy still. :(

 

---------------------

 

Scott Moore is starting at first base. According to Ron, Moore will be getting a lot of time during the rest of the season at first base and shortstop, not just third base.

[jaxxradio]

Have I told you lately how much I hate our internet service provider?? :wall:

[CubsWin]

Does anyone know why John Sickels would say that the Cubs organization isn't happy with Pawelek this season?

 

He came to camp out of shape.

 

I see. Thanks Raisin. :)

 

To be fair, he's come on strong at Boise and has worked well with the pitching coach there (David Rosario) to the adjustments he has needed to. I'm sure the Cubs wish he was at Peoria instead but he's had a solid season.

Well, if its not too late, maybe its time to give him one start at the Low-A level ala Gallagher in Daytona last year.

 

Pawelek's out-of-shapeness led to him having an ineffective June going 0-3, 5.06 with 7 Ks and 6 BBs in 10.1 innings. But since the calender turned to July, it has been a different story. In 9 starts (and 11 appearances) Mark is 3-2 with a 1.79 ERA. In 45.1 IP, he has given up just 34 hits while striking out 40 and walking 17.

 

He's been fairly consistent over the last two months. What harm would there be in that?

[Jehrico]

HR/9, BB/9, and WHIP.

 

He doesn't strike me as a future ace due to the lack of Ks, but as long as he keeps those three things in line, he should have a good future.

 

Whether or not he does is anyone's guess, but a 19 year old performing at this level is always a positive thing.

 

his low HR total is a fluke. About 12 percent of outfield flyballs should go for HRs. Anything less or more is a flukish, right now Taylor is at 4.7%, meaning he should allowed about 3 times as many HR. THe 16 additional HR would add to his WHIP and BB/9 (less outs) and more importantly, using just linear wieghts it would add roughly 20-25 runs allowed, all of sudden his ERA is around 4.90 give or take.

 

It's all a fluke and I am not impressed.

 

That's a pretty strong assertion without anything to back it up. Not that I'm that strong on him, but it's pretty out of line to go ahead and pencil in 3x as many hrs and judge him off of what you think his stats should be.

[Jon]

Does anyone know why John Sickels would say that the Cubs organization isn't happy with Pawelek this season?

 

He came to camp out of shape.

 

I see. Thanks Raisin. :)

 

To be fair, he's come on strong at Boise and has worked well with the pitching coach there (David Rosario) to the adjustments he has needed to. I'm sure the Cubs wish he was at Peoria instead but he's had a solid season.

Well, if its not too late, maybe its time to give him one start at the Low-A level ala Gallagher in Daytona last year.

 

Pawelek's out-of-shapeness led to him having an ineffective June going 0-3, 5.06 with 7 Ks and 6 BBs in 10.1 innings. But since the calender turned to July, it has been a different story. In 9 starts (and 11 appearances) Mark is 3-2 with a 1.79 ERA. In 45.1 IP, he has given up just 34 hits while striking out 40 and walking 17.

 

He's been fairly consistent over the last two months. What harm would there be in that?

Well, Boise is hopefully on their way to the playoffs. Not only that, but his next start will likely be a home game, meaning that video will be available through BoiseHawks.com. And I want to see him at least once more before the end of the year, especially now that he's doing well.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Does anyone know why John Sickels would say that the Cubs organization isn't happy with Pawelek this season?

 

He came to camp out of shape.

 

I see. Thanks Raisin. :)

 

To be fair, he's come on strong at Boise and has worked well with the pitching coach there (David Rosario) to the adjustments he has needed to. I'm sure the Cubs wish he was at Peoria instead but he's had a solid season.

Well, if its not too late, maybe its time to give him one start at the Low-A level ala Gallagher in Daytona last year.

 

Pawelek's out-of-shapeness led to him having an ineffective June going 0-3, 5.06 with 7 Ks and 6 BBs in 10.1 innings. But since the calender turned to July, it has been a different story. In 9 starts (and 11 appearances) Mark is 3-2 with a 1.79 ERA. In 45.1 IP, he has given up just 34 hits while striking out 40 and walking 17.

 

He's been fairly consistent over the last two months. What harm would there be in that?

 

I doubt his out-of-shapeness led to his struggles at his season at Boise. He had a few months to get back in to shape before the season started. He was having control problems, supposedly related to his mechanics and has fixed them.

 

There's no harm in having him promoted to Peoria. He definitely should be able to handle it. The reason it won't happen is because Boise is in first place by 3.5 games and should go to the playoffs. Let Pawelek get his playoff atmosphere at the level and team he's been with all season.

[UK1679666180]

At first when I seen that Boise score, I was shocked that it would be when Eric Butler would be pitching for Everett. But then the box score showed most was not against him, so it made more sense.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

At first when I seen that Boise score, I was shocked that it would be when Eric Butler would be pitching for Everett. But then the box score showed most was not against him, so it made more sense.

 

Heh. Butler sounded solid today.

[Mephistopheles]

That's a pretty strong assertion without anything to back it up. Not that I'm that strong on him, but it's pretty out of line to go ahead and pencil in 3x as many hrs and judge him off of what you think his stats should be.

Welcome to the BABIP/xFIP/xDIPS world. I already backed up my remarks. HR/OFB rates are not consistent. They can be predicted relatively well. If the guy is giving up a lot of flyballs that aren't going for home runs, we can expect him to regress to the average.

 

When analyzing minor league players it is imperative to look at everything in context. Take for instance the HR/FB rates. For Peoria this season the park factor for home runs per outfield flyball has been 1.05. This is in line with past season's HR park factors. In the majors, a flyball is a home run between 11 ad 12 percent of the time. Of course there are different figures for different parks. But if a player's HR/FB is way over their predicted figure, then it's flukishly high. Ditto for under. Over time it's going to regress to the main, just like BABIP.

 

Now, in the minor leagues this is especially vital with leagues such as the California League where the offensive contexts are different. Along with Peoria the next two steps for Taylor will be pitching dominated leagues due to altitude and parks. This will surpress FB's. Now, the definition of a flyball may differentiate here compared to the ones that HBT uses.

 

But here are the league averages for the leagues with Cub full-season affiliates save the PCL. I will put the IL because it doesn't have as many parks in the moutains:

 

6.9% Midwest League

8.0% Florida State League

8.7% Southern League

9.7% International League

 

Remember, the Major Leagues are going to be between 11 and 12 percent. So it's a pretty linear progression moving up about 1 percent at each stop. 7 for the MWL, 8 for the FSL, 9 for the SL, 10 for the IL, and at least 11 for the NL.

 

This is pretty rational. Obviously as you progress through the minors there is going to be a weeding out process, and your HR hitters are the best hitters so they'll survive the cuts. Also many of the players in the lower rungs are young and power is often the last tool to develop, so they strengthen as they progress through the minors.

 

After the normalizing Scott Taylor's HR/FB rate for his home park we get a figure of 4.6%. This is way below the major league rate of 11 percent. This is something that IS a huge concern. It's already 2.3% below the league rate. There is no way humanly possible he keeps this up. He's not a groundball pitcher and he's not a strikeout pitcher.

 

Look at his K rate, it's currently at 4.45 K/9. That's terrible. There are very very few pitchers in the major leagues that could survive for long with a K rate that low. The ones that do are extreme groundball pitchers - Scott Taylor is not one of those. Also, hitters become progressively harder to strikeout as one rises through the system. The K/9 rate in the Midwest League is 7.46 K/9. Again, that's a considerable figure which will more than likely only get worse.

 

Sure he's got a good WHIP, but his HR rate is helping that. His BABIP is certainly helping that. It's 20 points below the league average. Again this should regress to the mean in time. If you want to factor in the extra hits and HRs his WHIP is over 1.30. Factoring in the HRs his ERA is well over 4.00. Keep in mind that the league ERA is in the mid 3's. He's fairly average there. Only two teams in the entire league have ERA's over 4.00.

 

Scott Taylor has two things going for him, he's young and he's got decent control. I'm not even sure it's his control that's good. His stuff doesn't wow me. If you can't miss Low ****ing A bats you won't survive. Right now Scott Taylor's pitching recipe for success is pretty simple. Throw the ball down the middle. Let the weak strenthed Low A hitter hit it as hard as they can in the air, because well it's not going anywhere.

 

I am pretty sure I backed up my assertions sufficiently.

 

The Jaime Moyer comparison to whoever said it wasn't really good. When Moyer was in Low A his ERA was under 2.00 and his K/9 was over 10.0.

Edited August 28, 2006 by Mephistopheles

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You know who I miss? Diffusion.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scott Taylor isn't left-handed.

[Mephistopheles]

Who?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

A poster who used similarly comprehensive dismantlings of other people's points. He was British too, which adds a level of coolness. Haven't seen him around here in quite some time.