Assesment on Hill, so far?

[Magnetic Curses]

please, bask in my i-told-you-so-ness.

 

http://northsidebaseball.com/PremiumForum/viewtopic.php?t=28009&highlight=

 

http://northsidebaseball.com/Forum/viewtopic.php?t=28009&highlight=

 

Cool.

 

I also remember a stats guy on Murph in the offseason who predicted a breakout year for Rich on the basis that his minor league numbers are some of the best in recent memory. The early returns are, he was right on. I don't remember his name though.

 

iirc, he had the best jamesian game score last season, including sanchez's non-no. and yes, john dewan, a guy i don't usually like to hear from as he seems to turn away from meaningful stats and call attention to meaningless ones.

 

I was pretty excited after listening to him. I make no secret I don't really follow the minors, so I wasn't aware of Hill's dominance (well, maybe a little but he was talking like Hill's minor league career was one of the greatest.......ever).

 

i don't know about greatest ever, but his k/9 was legendary.

[Magnetic Curses]

I hope Hill keeps proving me wrong.

 

wow, mojo, i didn't know you were so hard on him. ouch.

[abuck1220]

era+ at 972.

 

i think that deserves a :shock:

[Ding Dong Johnson]

era+ at 972.

 

i think that deserves a :shock:

 

Is there a max?

[jersey cubs fan]

era+ at 972.

 

i think that deserves a :shock:

 

Is there a max?

 

Yes, it's whatever Rich Hill what's it to be.

[Chocolate Milk]

era+ at 972.

 

i think that deserves a :shock:

 

Get it over a 1000 and then we'll talk.

[Laura]

please, bask in my i-told-you-so-ness.

 

http://northsidebaseball.com/PremiumForum/viewtopic.php?t=28009&highlight=

 

http://northsidebaseball.com/Forum/viewtopic.php?t=28009&highlight=

 

Cool.

 

I also remember a stats guy on Murph in the offseason who predicted a breakout year for Rich on the basis that his minor league numbers are some of the best in recent memory. The early returns are, he was right on. I don't remember his name though.

 

iirc, he had the best jamesian game score last season, including sanchez's non-no. and yes, john dewan, a guy i don't usually like to hear from as he seems to turn away from meaningful stats and call attention to meaningless ones.

 

I was pretty excited after listening to him. I make no secret I don't really follow the minors, so I wasn't aware of Hill's dominance (well, maybe a little but he was talking like Hill's minor league career was one of the greatest.......ever).

 

This was the thread about Rich Hill & '07 Projections from last year.

[C.C.]

please, bask in my i-told-you-so-ness.

 

http://northsidebaseball.com/PremiumForum/viewtopic.php?t=28009&highlight=

 

http://northsidebaseball.com/Forum/viewtopic.php?t=28009&highlight=

 

Cool.

 

I also remember a stats guy on Murph in the offseason who predicted a breakout year for Rich on the basis that his minor league numbers are some of the best in recent memory. The early returns are, he was right on. I don't remember his name though.

 

iirc, he had the best jamesian game score last season, including sanchez's non-no. and yes, john dewan, a guy i don't usually like to hear from as he seems to turn away from meaningful stats and call attention to meaningless ones.

 

I was pretty excited after listening to him. I make no secret I don't really follow the minors, so I wasn't aware of Hill's dominance (well, maybe a little but he was talking like Hill's minor league career was one of the greatest.......ever).

 

This was the thread about Rich Hill & '07 Projections from last year.

 

Link is only for Prem's.

[Soriano12]

My early assessment on Hill is that's he pretty good. But don't hold me to that.

 

 

 

Seriously though, I think we can lay off the "see what all these people said about him before" posts for now.

 

Agree 100%. Early last year he simply wasn't getting it done and I think people had a right to question whether he could turn it on at the big league level. But it is awesome that he has finally broken through.

 

Does anyone know how long Hill is signed? I think it would make sense to approach him shortly and see if we can lock him up to a long term deal, maybe around 10 mill/season if the Cubs take action now.

[jersey cubs fan]

My early assessment on Hill is that's he pretty good. But don't hold me to that.

 

 

 

Seriously though, I think we can lay off the "see what all these people said about him before" posts for now.

 

Agree 100%. Early last year he simply wasn't getting it done and I think people had a right to question whether he could turn it on at the big league level. But it is awesome that he has finally broken through.

 

Does anyone know how long Hill is signed? I think it would make sense to approach him shortly and see if we can lock him up to a long term deal, maybe around 10 mill/season if the Cubs take action now.

 

Please don't agree with me if you're going to say stuff like that.

 

People were dead wrong with what they said about him, I just don't think it's helpful to keep rehashing that point.

[Laura]

 

Link is only for Prem's.

 

Take the 'premium' out of the url and it's a regular link.

[abuck1220]

people weren't merely "questioning whether he could get it done at the big league level." that would probably be the kindest thing anyone in those threads said about him.

[Soriano12]

My early assessment on Hill is that's he pretty good. But don't hold me to that.

 

 

 

Seriously though, I think we can lay off the "see what all these people said about him before" posts for now.

 

Agree 100%. Early last year he simply wasn't getting it done and I think people had a right to question whether he could turn it on at the big league level. But it is awesome that he has finally broken through.

 

Does anyone know how long Hill is signed? I think it would make sense to approach him shortly and see if we can lock him up to a long term deal, maybe around 10 mill/season if the Cubs take action now.

 

Please don't agree with me if you're going to say stuff like that.

 

People were dead wrong with what they said about him, I just don't think it's helpful to keep rehashing that point.

 

:?: He wasn't getting it done the first half of 06

[jersey cubs fan]

:?: He wasn't getting it done the first half of 06

 

He wasn't given anything to do. Seriously, the people who were questioning him were wrong, on many levels. I just don't think it's worth going over this anymore. If you want to keep it going, I can't stop you.

[bukie]

The lesson to be learned here is that if a pitcher can't get it done in 50 innings of sporadic work over 2 years in the majors while being bounced around between spot starts and bullpen work, it's completely hopeless.

 

Those 50 innings also overrule any consistent minor league numbers over the course of the previous 3 years, also.

[CoolHandLuke]

My early assessment on Hill is that's he pretty good. But don't hold me to that.

 

 

 

Seriously though, I think we can lay off the "see what all these people said about him before" posts for now.

 

Agree 100%. Early last year he simply wasn't getting it done and I think people had a right to question whether he could turn it on at the big league level. But it is awesome that he has finally broken through.

 

Does anyone know how long Hill is signed? I think it would make sense to approach him shortly and see if we can lock him up to a long term deal, maybe around 10 mill/season if the Cubs take action now.

 

There has to be a year or two before he even hits arbitration and then another few years before he becomes a free agent. There is absolutely no reason to give him 10 mil a year right now.

[Soul]

 

Link is only for Prem's.

 

Take the 'premium' out of the url and it's a regular link.

 

That does it. Hill will officially rock this season. Can there be any doubt?

 

Whew. I didn't rail on Hill. I was definitely thinking that his late season '06 doesn't *necessarily* translate into '07 success though. I thought the same of Theriot.

 

Happily, it looks like both are on track as of now. Hope it stays that way. There's still more upside to explore with both guys, IMO.

[abuck1220]

people weren't merely "questioning whether he could get it done at the big league level." that would probably be the kindest thing anyone in those threads said about him.

 

Ex:

He's a useless sack of meat.

 

By the time hes ready it will be time to retire.

[jersey cubs fan]

There has to be a year or two before he even hits arbitration and then another few years before he becomes a free agent. There is absolutely no reason to give him 10 mil a year right now.

 

If he sticks in the majors at this point, I believe he'll be arbitration eligible after next season (as a super-2?), and wouldn't be a free agent until after 2012.

 

That means it's going to a take a long time for him to approach the $10m salary range. In other words, there's big time incentive for him to sign something before then. I think the Cubs should stronly consider signing him to a deal after this year that takes up all his arbitration years, 2008-2012 that would pay him something like:

 

2008- $0.75m

2009- $2.00m

2010- $5.00m

2011- $7.00m

2012- $10.00m club option with $0.25m buyout

 

That would guarantee him $15m, probably well under what he'd make if he kept pitching well and hit arbitration every year, but it would secure his financial future and put him on the road to racking up the dough. The Cubs haven't been a team that does deals like this (San Diego, Arizona and others have). But I think it's a good way to keep cost certainty on your best and most likely to succeed young players.

[C.C.]

people weren't merely "questioning whether he could get it done at the big league level." that would probably be the kindest thing anyone in those threads said about him.

 

Ex:

He's a useless sack of meat.

 

By the time hes ready it will be time to retire.

 

:lol:

[waffle]

isn't he old-ISH? 27 I seem to remember?

 

I didn't follow him in the minors. Knew he struck folks out and developed a wicked curve. Has he been in our system his whole career?

[jersey cubs fan]

isn't he old-ISH? 27 I seem to remember?

 

I didn't follow him in the minors. Knew he struck folks out and developed a wicked curve. Has he been in our system his whole career?

 

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/rich-hill.shtml

 

 

Oldish perhaps. But 27 isn't old at all when you're talking about a pitcher emerging as a reliable arm. Pitchers do tend to peak later than hitters. The Cubs probably could have had him in the majors and succeeding in 2005, and definitely 2006, if it wasn't for their silly usage patterns with him.

[abuck1220]

looking back, maybe it's for the best that he was kept away from baker for most of 2006.

[VanceJergins]

looking back, maybe it's for the best that he was kept away from baker for most of 2006.

 

Too bad we couldn't have kept Prior in the minors for an extra 4 years.

[jersey cubs fan]

looking back, maybe it's for the best that he was kept away from baker for most of 2006.

 

Too bad we couldn't have kept Prior in the minors for an extra 4 years.

 

Or kept Baker out of Chicago for the past 4.