Oops part 2

[Mephistopheles]

Guys, we didn't make the dumbest pick of the first round.

[cheapseats]

Yes, because it is all so clear after 200 minor league AB's.

 

No disrespect to anyone, but this is Wilken's job, I trust that he knows what he is doing.

 

Lots of people have jobs they don't deserve. The above is not a good argument.

[Bruno7481]

Yes, because it is all so clear after 200 minor league AB's.

 

No disrespect to anyone, but this is Wilken's job, I trust that he knows what he is doing.

 

Lots of people have jobs they don't deserve. The above is not a good argument.

 

Allright then, are you saying Wilken isn't qualified/deserves this position? If so, I'd love to hear your reasoning.

[Drew Doughty]

Yes, because it is all so clear after 200 minor league AB's.

 

No disrespect to anyone, but this is Wilken's job, I trust that he knows what he is doing.

 

Lots of people have jobs they don't deserve. The above is not a good argument.

 

Allright then, are you saying Wilken isn't qualified/deserves this position? If so, I'd love to hear your reasoning.

 

That's not what he was saying. He's saying people have jobs they don't deserve and that what you used was a fruitless argument.

[Bruno7481]

Yes, because it is all so clear after 200 minor league AB's.

 

No disrespect to anyone, but this is Wilken's job, I trust that he knows what he is doing.

 

Lots of people have jobs they don't deserve. The above is not a good argument.

 

Allright then, are you saying Wilken isn't qualified/deserves this position? If so, I'd love to hear your reasoning.

 

That's not what he was saying. He's saying people have jobs they don't deserve and that what you used was a fruitless argument.

 

Its not a fruitless argument at all. If he feels Wilken isn't qualified for the job, then I understand why he is saying that.

 

Wilken has a track record, I think he was a solid addition to the organization. I think he has earned his position, that is why I made that remark.

[Jehrico]

I would have liked to have seen this pick used a few different ways, but obviously, since we were missing 2,3, and 4th round picks, Hendry wanted a safe #1 pick over a high-reward pick, and Wilkins followed his marching orders. The far majority of his #1 picks have gone on to be useful major leaguers. I doubt Wilkins drafted Colvin with the hopes he could be a future all-star, I think he saw him as the safest bet available to progress into an everyday OFer in the majors at some poing down the road. I doubt that pick would have been made if we had not lost 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks.

 

Even if Colvin never pans out, I don't know if he gets all of the blame, or if Hendry gets any part of it for directing a safe pick rather than a high reward pick.

[Mephistopheles]

There were much safer picks than Tyler Colvin. Without even looking at the high school class I would have taken, say Matt Antonelli. His plus athleticism would allow him to move to LF or 2B or stay at 3B. The problem with Antonelli was that he doesn't fit the Cubs' system. He walks too much.

[Jehrico]

There were much safer picks than Tyler Colvin. Without even looking at the high school class I would have taken, say Matt Antonelli. His plus athleticism would allow him to move to LF or 2B or stay at 3B. The problem with Antonelli was that he doesn't fit the Cubs' system. He walks too much.

 

Right or wrong, there are schools of thought that think college picks are considerably safer than high school picks. I don't know enough about Wilkins to say whether he's in that camp or not.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BP checks in on the first round picks this past year.

[Outshined_One]

BP checks in on the first round picks this past year.

 

Nobody, not even the Cubs, thought Colvin was the 13th best player in the draft, but he was a solid talent who was part of a much larger draft strategy who has had a decent debut.

 

That's always a good sign.

 

Still, we'll see how he develops and if he can stick at CF.

[imb]

BP checks in on the first round picks this past year.

 

Nobody, not even the Cubs, thought Colvin was the 13th best player in the draft, but he was a solid talent who was part of a much larger draft strategy who has had a decent debut.

 

That's always a good sign.

 

Still, we'll see how he develops and if he can stick at CF.

 

Here's a sobering thought. Even if he sticks at CF, he's only 7 months younger than Pie. Is there any chance that Colvin will be a better player than Felix? Doubtful.

[Soriano12]

Can someone post the Blue Jays first round draft picks from

1990-2002.

 

 

Seriously...this organiztion is about as dumb as they come.

 

But getting Wilken was money.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

BP checks in on the first round picks this past year.

 

Nobody, not even the Cubs, thought Colvin was the 13th best player in the draft, but he was a solid talent who was part of a much larger draft strategy who has had a decent debut.

 

That's always a good sign.

 

Still, we'll see how he develops and if he can stick at CF.

 

Here's a sobering thought. Even if he sticks at CF, he's only 7 months younger than Pie. Is there any chance that Colvin will be a better player than Felix? Doubtful.

 

This is unfair for a couple reasons(comparing Colvin to a top 25 overall prospect, the insinuation Pie will block Colvin despite their different career stages, or the related insinuation Pie will be a CF forever), but it really underscores how important age is. When you're as old as Colvin is when you're drafted, you've got to produce, and pretty quick.

[UK1679666180]

BP checks in on the first round picks this past year.

 

Nobody, not even the Cubs, thought Colvin was the 13th best player in the draft, but he was a solid talent who was part of a much larger draft strategy who has had a decent debut.

 

That's always a good sign.

 

Still, we'll see how he develops and if he can stick at CF.

 

Here's a sobering thought. Even if he sticks at CF, he's only 7 months younger than Pie. Is there any chance that Colvin will be a better player than Felix? Doubtful.

 

You never draft based on potential major league depth, especially when the player in question (Pie) hasn't played in the majors and had a chance to prove he can stick or flounder. It would be similar to 5 years ago, complaining about the Cubs signing Pie from the DR with Patterson almost ready for the majors.

[Bruno7481]

BP checks in on the first round picks this past year.

 

Nobody, not even the Cubs, thought Colvin was the 13th best player in the draft, but he was a solid talent who was part of a much larger draft strategy who has had a decent debut.

 

That's always a good sign.

 

Still, we'll see how he develops and if he can stick at CF.

 

Here's a sobering thought. Even if he sticks at CF, he's only 7 months younger than Pie. Is there any chance that Colvin will be a better player than Felix? Doubtful.

 

You never draft based on potential major league depth, especially when the player in question (Pie) hasn't played in the majors and had a chance to prove he can stick or flounder. It would be similar to 5 years ago, complaining about the Cubs signing Pie from the DR with Patterson almost ready for the majors.

 

Was going to post the same thing. You beat me to it.

 

(Cats have a chance Suday?)

[UK1679666180]

BP checks in on the first round picks this past year.

 

Nobody, not even the Cubs, thought Colvin was the 13th best player in the draft, but he was a solid talent who was part of a much larger draft strategy who has had a decent debut.

 

That's always a good sign.

 

Still, we'll see how he develops and if he can stick at CF.

 

Here's a sobering thought. Even if he sticks at CF, he's only 7 months younger than Pie. Is there any chance that Colvin will be a better player than Felix? Doubtful.

 

You never draft based on potential major league depth, especially when the player in question (Pie) hasn't played in the majors and had a chance to prove he can stick or flounder. It would be similar to 5 years ago, complaining about the Cubs signing Pie from the DR with Patterson almost ready for the majors.

 

Was going to post the same thing. You beat me to it.

 

(Cats have a chance Suday?)

 

Maybe Suday, but not on Sunday. :) Long final year for Brooks.

[imb]

BP checks in on the first round picks this past year.

 

Nobody, not even the Cubs, thought Colvin was the 13th best player in the draft, but he was a solid talent who was part of a much larger draft strategy who has had a decent debut.

 

That's always a good sign.

 

Still, we'll see how he develops and if he can stick at CF.

 

Here's a sobering thought. Even if he sticks at CF, he's only 7 months younger than Pie. Is there any chance that Colvin will be a better player than Felix? Doubtful.

 

You never draft based on potential major league depth, especially when the player in question (Pie) hasn't played in the majors and had a chance to prove he can stick or flounder. It would be similar to 5 years ago, complaining about the Cubs signing Pie from the DR with Patterson almost ready for the majors.

 

I'm not saying they shouldnt have drafted Colvin because of Pie. I think they shouldnt have drafted him because he's not very good.

 

What I was saying is that O_O (and others) have mentioned him maybe sticking at CF. Even if he does, he's only half a year younger than Pie, and he's producing at nowhere near the level Pie is/has.

 

The best case scenario for Colvin at this point appears to be him playing a decent CF and being a decent hitter. Even if his defense in CF is adequate enough to make his bat not a liability, chances are it's a moot point anyway because Pie's defense AND bat will be better.

 

I think that Colvin's performance so far this year just underscores what a bad pick it was.

 

And it's not the same thing as Pie/Patterson situation, besides the fact that that isn't at all what my post implied. Pie was much younger than Colvin when he was signed, and who's to say that we passed up a better prospect for Pie? Did we sign Pie and pass up a more talented player? (Like we did with Colvin/Snider). It isn't the same thing at all.

[Soriano12]

ah...found it. Toronto's first round picks.

 

2003 Aaron Hill

2002 Russ Adams

2001 Gabe Gross

2000 Miguel Negron

1999 Alexis Rios

1998 Felipe Lopez

1997 Vernon Wells

1996 Billy Koch

1995 Roy Halladay

1994 Kevin Witt

1993 Chris Carpenter

1992 Shannon Stewart

1991 Shawn Green

 

 

Pretty darn good although he tailed off a little after Rios in 99.

[UK1679666180]

Every scout evaluates players differently and rates their abilities =\= as well. Those who scouted both will likely give different answers as to who has the higher ceiling and who has the better chance of reaching their ceiling.

 

I assume that Wilken and whomever was involved had Colvin slotted for that spot. I don't know if there was any financial incentives involved there.

 

At this stage, it's premature to question the move with any validity.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

ah...found it. Toronto's first round picks.

 

2003 Aaron Hill

2002 Russ Adams

2001 Gabe Gross

2000 Miguel Negron

1999 Alexis Rios

1998 Felipe Lopez

1997 Vernon Wells

1996 Billy Koch

1995 Roy Halladay

1994 Kevin Witt

1993 Chris Carpenter

1992 Shannon Stewart

1991 Shawn Green

 

 

Pretty darn good although he tailed off a little after Rios in 99.

 

Those aren't all Wilken's picks, though.

 

From 1989-1996, Tim Wilken was the Blue Jays' national cross checker:

 

1989: 19 - SS Eddie Zosky, Fresno State

1990: 22 - RHP Steve Karsay, Christ the King (New York)

1991: 16 - OF Shawn Green, Tustin HS (California)

1992: 19 - OF Shannon Stewart, University of Miami, Florida

1993: 15 - RHP Chris Carpenter, Trinity HS (New Hampshire)

1994: 28 - SS Kevin Witt, Bishop Kenny HS (Florida)

1995: 17 - RHP Roy Halladay, West HS (Colorado)

 

From 1996-2001, Wilken was the Blue Jays team scouting director:

 

1996: 3 - RHP Billy Koch, Clemson

1997: 5 - OF Vernon Wells, Bowie HS (Texas)

1998: 8 - SS Felipe Lopez, Lake Brantley HS (Florida)

1999: 19 - 3B Alexis Rios, San Pedro Martin HS (Puerto Rico)

2000: 18 - OF Miguel Negron, Manuela Toro HS (Puerto Rico)

2001: 15 - OF Gabriel Gross, Auburn

 

From 2004-2005, Wilken was a special assistant to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays:

 

2004: 4 - RHP Jeff Niemann, Rice

2005: 8 - RHP Wade Townsend, formerly of Rice

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Every scout evaluates players differently and rates their abilities =\= as well. Those who scouted both will likely give different answers as to who has the higher ceiling and who has the better chance of reaching their ceiling.

 

I assume that Wilken and whomever was involved had Colvin slotted for that spot. I don't know if there was any financial incentives involved there.

 

At this stage, it's premature to question the move with any validity.

 

From everything I've seen after the fact, there was no financial incentives involved in selecting Colvin (although he about $100K less than slot money).

[Outshined_One]

I'm not saying they shouldnt have drafted Colvin because of Pie. I think they shouldnt have drafted him because he's not very good.

 

What I was saying is that O_O (and others) have mentioned him maybe sticking at CF. Even if he does, he's only half a year younger than Pie, and he's producing at nowhere near the level Pie is/has.

 

The best case scenario for Colvin at this point appears to be him playing a decent CF and being a decent hitter. Even if his defense in CF is adequate enough to make his bat not a liability, chances are it's a moot point anyway because Pie's defense AND bat will be better.

 

I think that Colvin's performance so far this year just underscores what a bad pick it was.

 

But this gets back to UK's point...how will we know Pie will be better than Colvin both offensively and defensively? We all know Pie's ceiling is really good and justifiably merits him being considered one of the Top 25 prospects in all of baseball, but any number of things could happen to him.

 

Let's look at the best case scenario.

 

Even though it may not happen, assume for the sake of the argument that Pie wins the CF job out of spring training in 2007. Over the next two seasons, Pie goes on to play at a high level and lives up to his expectations. Come 2009, Jacque Jones' contract is up and Colvin is ready to be called up to the majors, showing himself to be a bit above average in CF and shows that he could be an ideal middle of the order hitter who can post good OBPs with 20-25 HRs. Pie moves to RF and Colvin gets CF, while the Cubs don't have much in the way of salary tied up in the OF while getting good production from CF and RF.

 

The odds of that happening are miniscule, but it's nice to dream.

 

However, there's always the chance that Pie pulls a CPatt while Colvin goes on to put up Murton-like numbers in High A & AA (only with less patience and better power). If Colvin can put up a comparable OPS to Murton, only from CF with better D, wouldn't that make this pick worthwhile?

 

I'm not predicting Colvin will be an All Star or even make the majors. However, I think this board has largely been jumping the gun with ripping on him and the Cubs for making that pick. The Northwest League is not a place with greatly lesser talent than what Colvin faced in college. Plenty of top college draft picks have started at a comparable or lower level than Colvin. A number of us have also been horribly wrong on a number of occasions when it comes to projecting these things. I'm happy to admit to being among those people.

 

What's going to matter the most for him is next season. He'll probably start in Peoria but be fast-tracked if he performs well enough. We'll find out, one way or another.

[Soriano12]

ah...found it. Toronto's first round picks.

 

2003 Aaron Hill

2002 Russ Adams

2001 Gabe Gross

2000 Miguel Negron

1999 Alexis Rios

1998 Felipe Lopez

1997 Vernon Wells

1996 Billy Koch

1995 Roy Halladay

1994 Kevin Witt

1993 Chris Carpenter

1992 Shannon Stewart

1991 Shawn Green

 

 

Pretty darn good although he tailed off a little after Rios in 99.

 

Those aren't all Wilken's picks, though.

 

From 1989-1996, Tim Wilken was the Blue Jays' national cross checker:

 

1989: 19 - SS Eddie Zosky, Fresno State

1990: 22 - RHP Steve Karsay, Christ the King (New York)

1991: 16 - OF Shawn Green, Tustin HS (California)

1992: 19 - OF Shannon Stewart, University of Miami, Florida

1993: 15 - RHP Chris Carpenter, Trinity HS (New Hampshire)

1994: 28 - SS Kevin Witt, Bishop Kenny HS (Florida)

1995: 17 - RHP Roy Halladay, West HS (Colorado)

 

From 1996-2001, Wilken was the Blue Jays team scouting director:

 

1996: 3 - RHP Billy Koch, Clemson

1997: 5 - OF Vernon Wells, Bowie HS (Texas)

1998: 8 - SS Felipe Lopez, Lake Brantley HS (Florida)

1999: 19 - 3B Alexis Rios, San Pedro Martin HS (Puerto Rico)

2000: 18 - OF Miguel Negron, Manuela Toro HS (Puerto Rico)

2001: 15 - OF Gabriel Gross, Auburn

 

From 2004-2005, Wilken was a special assistant to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays:

 

2004: 4 - RHP Jeff Niemann, Rice

2005: 8 - RHP Wade Townsend, formerly of Rice

 

Well if he was directly responsible for 96-01 that is a pretty good resume.

4/6 are(were) all stars.

[imb]

I'm not saying they shouldnt have drafted Colvin because of Pie. I think they shouldnt have drafted him because he's not very good.

 

What I was saying is that O_O (and others) have mentioned him maybe sticking at CF. Even if he does, he's only half a year younger than Pie, and he's producing at nowhere near the level Pie is/has.

 

The best case scenario for Colvin at this point appears to be him playing a decent CF and being a decent hitter. Even if his defense in CF is adequate enough to make his bat not a liability, chances are it's a moot point anyway because Pie's defense AND bat will be better.

 

I think that Colvin's performance so far this year just underscores what a bad pick it was.

 

But this gets back to UK's point...how will we know Pie will be better than Colvin both offensively and defensively? We all know Pie's ceiling is really good and justifiably merits him being considered one of the Top 25 prospects in all of baseball, but any number of things could happen to him.

 

Let's look at the best case scenario.

 

Even though it may not happen, assume for the sake of the argument that Pie wins the CF job out of spring training in 2007. Over the next two seasons, Pie goes on to play at a high level and lives up to his expectations. Come 2009, Jacque Jones' contract is up and Colvin is ready to be called up to the majors, showing himself to be a bit above average in CF and shows that he could be an ideal middle of the order hitter who can post good OBPs with 20-25 HRs. Pie moves to RF and Colvin gets CF, while the Cubs don't have much in the way of salary tied up in the OF while getting good production from CF and RF.

 

The odds of that happening are miniscule, but it's nice to dream.

 

However, there's always the chance that Pie pulls a CPatt while Colvin goes on to put up Murton-like numbers in High A & AA (only with less patience and better power). If Colvin can put up a comparable OPS to Murton, only from CF with better D, wouldn't that make this pick worthwhile?

 

I'm not predicting Colvin will be an All Star or even make the majors. However, I think this board has largely been jumping the gun with ripping on him and the Cubs for making that pick. The Northwest League is not a place with greatly lesser talent than what Colvin faced in college. Plenty of top college draft picks have started at a comparable or lower level than Colvin. A number of us have also been horribly wrong on a number of occasions when it comes to projecting these things. I'm happy to admit to being among those people.

 

What's going to matter the most for him is next season. He'll probably start in Peoria but be fast-tracked if he performs well enough. We'll find out, one way or another.

 

But dont you think that the odds are that Pie in CF and Snider at 1B/Corner outfield will be better than Pie in a corner/Colvin in CF?

 

Not that Pie has anything to do with my point, who wouldn't rather have Snider at this point? Who wouldnt have rather had Snider before the draft?

 

I hope Colvin does well and I root for him every night, but just like I wanted Milledge instead of Harvey, I wanted Snider instead of Colvin and the results of all 4 of these players paint a sad picture of our recent drafts.

[Bruno7481]

I'm not saying they shouldnt have drafted Colvin because of Pie. I think they shouldnt have drafted him because he's not very good.

 

What I was saying is that O_O (and others) have mentioned him maybe sticking at CF. Even if he does, he's only half a year younger than Pie, and he's producing at nowhere near the level Pie is/has.

 

The best case scenario for Colvin at this point appears to be him playing a decent CF and being a decent hitter. Even if his defense in CF is adequate enough to make his bat not a liability, chances are it's a moot point anyway because Pie's defense AND bat will be better.

 

I think that Colvin's performance so far this year just underscores what a bad pick it was.

 

But this gets back to UK's point...how will we know Pie will be better than Colvin both offensively and defensively? We all know Pie's ceiling is really good and justifiably merits him being considered one of the Top 25 prospects in all of baseball, but any number of things could happen to him.

 

Let's look at the best case scenario.

 

Even though it may not happen, assume for the sake of the argument that Pie wins the CF job out of spring training in 2007. Over the next two seasons, Pie goes on to play at a high level and lives up to his expectations. Come 2009, Jacque Jones' contract is up and Colvin is ready to be called up to the majors, showing himself to be a bit above average in CF and shows that he could be an ideal middle of the order hitter who can post good OBPs with 20-25 HRs. Pie moves to RF and Colvin gets CF, while the Cubs don't have much in the way of salary tied up in the OF while getting good production from CF and RF.

 

The odds of that happening are miniscule, but it's nice to dream.

 

However, there's always the chance that Pie pulls a CPatt while Colvin goes on to put up Murton-like numbers in High A & AA (only with less patience and better power). If Colvin can put up a comparable OPS to Murton, only from CF with better D, wouldn't that make this pick worthwhile?

 

I'm not predicting Colvin will be an All Star or even make the majors. However, I think this board has largely been jumping the gun with ripping on him and the Cubs for making that pick. The Northwest League is not a place with greatly lesser talent than what Colvin faced in college. Plenty of top college draft picks have started at a comparable or lower level than Colvin. A number of us have also been horribly wrong on a number of occasions when it comes to projecting these things. I'm happy to admit to being among those people.

 

What's going to matter the most for him is next season. He'll probably start in Peoria but be fast-tracked if he performs well enough. We'll find out, one way or another.

 

Exactly. Were you around back in the ESPN days when the upraor occured over the Adam Morrissey for Mark Bellhorn trade?