NL Cy Young: Breaking down the contenders.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

There's a lot of talk in the Chicago media about Zambrano's chances for the Cy Young. The Cubs' victory yesterday moved Zambrano, at least temporarily, in the lead for wins in the National League. So, how does the race shake out?

 

I've narrowed the field to seven contenders: Zambrano, Smoltz, Webb, Schmidt, Carpenter, Arroyo, and Oswalt.

 

When beginning with ERA, Zambrano ranks in the bottom half of this group.

1. Webb- 2.99

2. Carpenter- 3.05

T3 Oswalt- 3.23

Schmidt- 3.23

5. Zambrano- 3.31

6. Smoltz- 3.46

7. Arroyo- 3.44

 

Judging on ERA alone, Webb and Carpenter would be the front-runners.

 

Zambrano also doesn't fare well when looking at the WHIP of this group either. In fact, Zambrano is last among this group in WHIP.

 

1. Carpenter- 1.08

2. Smoltz- 1.15

3. Schmidt- 1.18

4. Webb- 1.20

5. Arroyo- 1.22

6. Oswalt- 1.23

7. Zambrano - 1.28

 

When looking at the above categories only, Zambrano has a hard climb in order to win the award. Based only on those two categories, I'd likely give the nod to Carpenter with Webb a close second.

 

Moving on to win shares, and Zambrano leaps to the top of the field, finishing only behind Webb. In fact, win shares seem to break the field into a top two and then a second tier.

 

1. Webb- 17

2. Zambrano- 16

T3. Carpenter 13

Arroyo 13

T5 Smoltz 12

Oswalt 12

Schmidt 12

 

Of course, looking at pitching win shares changes these a bit as Zambrano is the only one of the group receiving a positive (nearly a full win share) because of his bat. The rest receive none and some losing a full win share because of their bat. Adjusted to remove batting win shares, the list looks like this:

 

1. Webb- 19

2. Zambrano- 15.2

3. Arroyo- 14.8

4. Carpenter- 14.5

5. Schmidt- 14.4

6. Oswalt- 13.4

7. Smoltz- 13.2

 

After that adjustment, Zambrano moves closer to his peers while Webb jumps even further ahead of the field. After observing those stats, Webb becomes my favorite for the award with Carpenter and Zambrano trailing behind.

 

Taking a final stat or PRC which is a stat designed to emulate the RC stat used for hitters puts Zambrano at the top.

 

1. Zambrano- 100

2. Smoltz- 98

3. Webb- 97

4. Schmidt- 95

5. Carpenter- 95

6. Arroyo- 91

7. Oswalt- 90

 

While this stat is meant to be comprehensive, I'm still not convinced Zambrano should be at the top. I'm still ranking my Cy contenders as

1. Webb

 

Zambrano and Carpenter are following close behind.

 

Finally, we'll look at each pitcher's record. I'm adverse to doing this, because personally, I find it irrelevant. We do, however, know the Cy Young voters will look at it.

 

1. Zambrano: 14-5

2. Webb: 13-5

3. Carpenter 12-6

4. Smoltz 11-6

5. Schmidt 10-7

6. Arroyo 10-8

7. Oswalt 10-8

 

Based on this, and the way voters think, I can assume that the race is down to Zambrano, Webb, Carpenter, and Smoltz. The winning percentages of the remaining three are not good enough to warrant consideration.

 

In my own opinion, Zambrano is third behind Webb and Carpenter. He's close enough for me to believe he could overtake them.

 

My guess is the voters see it differently. My guess is that in the minds of the voters, Zambrano and Webb are neck and neck and that Carpenter trails by a good margin with Smoltz a distant fourth.

 

Each start for those four will be critical and one disaster could eliminate any of the four.

[goonys evil twin]

strikeout totals are also a category voters look at.

[Banedon]

How much will team record factor in for voters also?

[RyCubsFan]

strikeout totals are also a category voters look at.

 

And B.A. against.

 

Zambrano leads in both categories.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

How much will team record factor in for voters also?

 

For MVP, I think it factors greatly. For the Cy Young, I'm not sure it matters as much.

[Warren Brusstar]

Given the park factors involved here, it would be pretty tough to convince me that anyone other than Webb merits serious consideration IF THE VOTING WAS TODAY.

 

Obviously, there's still another month to play. But, if I was voting, Z and Carpenter would have some ground to make up. Thankfully, the writers are, generally, idiots, so Z still has a great chance.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I agree that Webb should be the hands-down favorite. I think Zambrano will have quite a bit of support in the national media.

 

In many ways, I hope Zambrano doesn't win it as it will make him even more expensive to retain as a Cub.

[TheDude]

I hope Zambrano does pull it out. I don't care if it costs more in the future, he deserves to be recognized despite years of Wood and Prior headlines.

 

On a personal note, having all three of Zambrano, Webb, and Carpenter on my fantasy team makes me smile.

[rawaction]

I called Webb as the top sleeper for the Cy this year. This season has been in the works for a couple years. Of course, I did think he would be just beat out by Peavy after back-to-back seasons of a ERA and a K title.

 

Webb, Carpenter, Zambrano....in that order. nobody else is in the conversation.

 

Someone should start an NL MVP thread so I can argue for Ryan Howard!

[Backtobanks]

I think Zambrano needs to do 3 things to win the Cy Young:

1. Improve his WHIP

2. Improve his ERA

3. Lead the league in victories by 2-3 wins

 

The 3rd item will be to counter the lousy season the Cubs have had. Webb and Carpenter will receive a little extra consideration because of the teams they play on.

[Rob]

I called Webb as the top sleeper for the Cy this year. This season has been in the works for a couple years. Of course, I did think he would be just beat out by Peavy after back-to-back seasons of a ERA and a K title.

 

Webb, Carpenter, Zambrano....in that order. nobody else is in the conversation.

 

Someone should start an NL MVP thread so I can argue for Ryan Howard!

 

This season was secured for Webb when the DBacks acquired Orlando Hudson. The day that happened, Webb jumped to the top of my pitching draft chart.

[Jehrico]

If only Z hadn't been in that funk coming off of the WBC...He'd be well out front.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

I think that the Cubs' poor record will only help Zambrano's chances. When you look at his wins relative to the clubs wins, that's pretty impressive.

[theOrange]

This analysis is a farce sans J Johnson.

 

There's a lot of talk in the Chicago media about Zambrano's chances for the Cy Young. The Cubs' victory yesterday moved Zambrano, at least temporarily, in the lead for wins in the National League. So, how does the race shake out?

 

I've narrowed the field to seven contenders: Zambrano, Smoltz, Webb, Schmidt, Carpenter, Arroyo, and Oswalt.

 

When beginning with ERA, Zambrano ranks in the bottom half of this group.

1. Webb- 2.99

2. Carpenter- 3.05

T3 Oswalt- 3.23

Schmidt- 3.23

5. Zambrano- 3.31

6. Smoltz- 3.46

7. Arroyo- 3.44

 

Judging on ERA alone, Webb and Carpenter would be the front-runners.

 

Zambrano also doesn't fare well when looking at the WHIP of this group either. In fact, Zambrano is last among this group in WHIP.

 

1. Carpenter- 1.08

2. Smoltz- 1.15

3. Schmidt- 1.18

4. Webb- 1.20

5. Arroyo- 1.22

6. Oswalt- 1.23

7. Zambrano - 1.28

 

When looking at the above categories only, Zambrano has a hard climb in order to win the award. Based only on those two categories, I'd likely give the nod to Carpenter with Webb a close second.

 

Moving on to win shares, and Zambrano leaps to the top of the field, finishing only behind Webb. In fact, win shares seem to break the field into a top two and then a second tier.

 

1. Webb- 17

2. Zambrano- 16

T3. Carpenter 13

Arroyo 13

T5 Smoltz 12

Oswalt 12

Schmidt 12

 

Of course, looking at pitching win shares changes these a bit as Zambrano is the only one of the group receiving a positive (nearly a full win share) because of his bat. The rest receive none and some losing a full win share because of their bat. Adjusted to remove batting win shares, the list looks like this:

 

1. Webb- 19

2. Zambrano- 15.2

3. Arroyo- 14.8

4. Carpenter- 14.5

5. Schmidt- 14.4

6. Oswalt- 13.4

7. Smoltz- 13.2

 

After that adjustment, Zambrano moves closer to his peers while Webb jumps even further ahead of the field. After observing those stats, Webb becomes my favorite for the award with Carpenter and Zambrano trailing behind.

 

Taking a final stat or PRC which is a stat designed to emulate the RC stat used for hitters puts Zambrano at the top.

 

1. Zambrano- 100

2. Smoltz- 98

3. Webb- 97

4. Schmidt- 95

5. Carpenter- 95

6. Arroyo- 91

7. Oswalt- 90

 

While this stat is meant to be comprehensive, I'm still not convinced Zambrano should be at the top. I'm still ranking my Cy contenders as

1. Webb

 

Zambrano and Carpenter are following close behind.

 

Finally, we'll look at each pitcher's record. I'm adverse to doing this, because personally, I find it irrelevant. We do, however, know the Cy Young voters will look at it.

 

1. Zambrano: 14-5

2. Webb: 13-5

3. Carpenter 12-6

4. Smoltz 11-6

5. Schmidt 10-7

6. Arroyo 10-8

7. Oswalt 10-8

 

Based on this, and the way voters think, I can assume that the race is down to Zambrano, Webb, Carpenter, and Smoltz. The winning percentages of the remaining three are not good enough to warrant consideration.

 

In my own opinion, Zambrano is third behind Webb and Carpenter. He's close enough for me to believe he could overtake them.

 

My guess is the voters see it differently. My guess is that in the minds of the voters, Zambrano and Webb are neck and neck and that Carpenter trails by a good margin with Smoltz a distant fourth.

 

Each start for those four will be critical and one disaster could eliminate any of the four.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

This analysis is a farce sans J Johnson.

 

There's a lot of talk in the Chicago media about Zambrano's chances for the Cy Young. The Cubs' victory yesterday moved Zambrano, at least temporarily, in the lead for wins in the National League. So, how does the race shake out?

 

I've narrowed the field to seven contenders: Zambrano, Smoltz, Webb, Schmidt, Carpenter, Arroyo, and Oswalt.

 

When beginning with ERA, Zambrano ranks in the bottom half of this group.

1. Webb- 2.99

2. Carpenter- 3.05

T3 Oswalt- 3.23

Schmidt- 3.23

5. Zambrano- 3.31

6. Smoltz- 3.46

7. Arroyo- 3.44

 

Judging on ERA alone, Webb and Carpenter would be the front-runners.

 

Zambrano also doesn't fare well when looking at the WHIP of this group either. In fact, Zambrano is last among this group in WHIP.

 

1. Carpenter- 1.08

2. Smoltz- 1.15

3. Schmidt- 1.18

4. Webb- 1.20

5. Arroyo- 1.22

6. Oswalt- 1.23

7. Zambrano - 1.28

 

When looking at the above categories only, Zambrano has a hard climb in order to win the award. Based only on those two categories, I'd likely give the nod to Carpenter with Webb a close second.

 

Moving on to win shares, and Zambrano leaps to the top of the field, finishing only behind Webb. In fact, win shares seem to break the field into a top two and then a second tier.

 

1. Webb- 17

2. Zambrano- 16

T3. Carpenter 13

Arroyo 13

T5 Smoltz 12

Oswalt 12

Schmidt 12

 

Of course, looking at pitching win shares changes these a bit as Zambrano is the only one of the group receiving a positive (nearly a full win share) because of his bat. The rest receive none and some losing a full win share because of their bat. Adjusted to remove batting win shares, the list looks like this:

 

1. Webb- 19

2. Zambrano- 15.2

3. Arroyo- 14.8

4. Carpenter- 14.5

5. Schmidt- 14.4

6. Oswalt- 13.4

7. Smoltz- 13.2

 

After that adjustment, Zambrano moves closer to his peers while Webb jumps even further ahead of the field. After observing those stats, Webb becomes my favorite for the award with Carpenter and Zambrano trailing behind.

 

Taking a final stat or PRC which is a stat designed to emulate the RC stat used for hitters puts Zambrano at the top.

 

1. Zambrano- 100

2. Smoltz- 98

3. Webb- 97

4. Schmidt- 95

5. Carpenter- 95

6. Arroyo- 91

7. Oswalt- 90

 

While this stat is meant to be comprehensive, I'm still not convinced Zambrano should be at the top. I'm still ranking my Cy contenders as

1. Webb

 

Zambrano and Carpenter are following close behind.

 

Finally, we'll look at each pitcher's record. I'm adverse to doing this, because personally, I find it irrelevant. We do, however, know the Cy Young voters will look at it.

 

1. Zambrano: 14-5

2. Webb: 13-5

3. Carpenter 12-6

4. Smoltz 11-6

5. Schmidt 10-7

6. Arroyo 10-8

7. Oswalt 10-8

 

Based on this, and the way voters think, I can assume that the race is down to Zambrano, Webb, Carpenter, and Smoltz. The winning percentages of the remaining three are not good enough to warrant consideration.

 

In my own opinion, Zambrano is third behind Webb and Carpenter. He's close enough for me to believe he could overtake them.

 

My guess is the voters see it differently. My guess is that in the minds of the voters, Zambrano and Webb are neck and neck and that Carpenter trails by a good margin with Smoltz a distant fourth.

 

Each start for those four will be critical and one disaster could eliminate any of the four.

 

I doubt Johnson gets any real consideration. His ERA at 2.90 would lead the league, but he doesn't have enough IP to qualify. His 1.27 WHIP would rank him ahead of Zambrano, but still at the bottom of the list. His PRC is only 72 which is well below the leaders and 28 below Zambrano. He only has 10 pitching win shares, which is just over half-way to Webb's 19. His record of 11-6 likely takes him out of any national consideration.

 

Johnson is putting up a nice season, but I doubt he receives any first place votes for the Cy Young and my guess is he won't finish higher than fifth in the voting. For those reasons, I didn't include him in my discussion.

[theOrange]

Yes he DOES qualify as the the minium is 127 innings - he has 133.

 

He currently leads the NL in ERA.

 

Smoltz is also "only" 11-6.

 

Whether you realize it or not - he IS a contender if not a finalist.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Yes he DOES qualify as the the minium is 127 innings - he has 133.

 

He currently leads the NL in ERA.

 

Smoltz is "only" 11-6.

 

Whether you realize it or not - he IS a contender if not a finalist.

 

When the results are in, we'll see if he finishes any higher than fifth in the voting. My guess is he won't.

 

The only stat that Johnson finishes high in is ERA. While some may value that over all others, he doesn't have enough in other categories to win the award.

 

I think the top three contenders will be Webb, Zambrano, and Carpenter. While much can change in a month, I think those three will be the top three vote getters as well. Webb should be the winner based on his performance thus far.

[NCCubFan]

In many ways, I hope Zambrano doesn't win it as it will make him even more expensive to retain as a Cub.

I hope he does win it, because this may be his best chance. I hate to say it, but given the way Dusty has abused him, there's no assurance he won't follow in the footsteps of Prior and Wood and start having injury problems.

[Big Fergie J]

Very solid analysis done here. Well done.

 

At this point I would put Webb ahead in the race but, of course, September numbers could be the final determining factor.

 

Z's chances will be hurt by his high walk #'s and the fact that the Cubs haven't played a meaningful game since April.