The Soccer Thread

[bukie]

This I found interesting:

 

Apparently, ESPN asked Nate Silver to develop a rating system for world soccer teams, the SPI. His reasoning and methodology are explained in other articles.

 

I would normally take it with a grain of salt, but I have a huge deal of respect for Silver.

 

Its very well thought out, and considering its impossible to get this perfect he does a great job in counting for multiple factors and varibles. Anything is better than FIFA's methodology especially for seeding.

I found it most interesting that Ivory Coast was so much higher in these rankings, mostly because they play so few home games, and HFA counts for so much in soccer.

 

Of course, that just makes me dread the Brazil/Netherlands/Ivory Coast/USA group even more.

[shnsajax]

This I found interesting:

 

Apparently, ESPN asked Nate Silver to develop a rating system for world soccer teams, the SPI. His reasoning and methodology are explained in other articles.

 

I would normally take it with a grain of salt, but I have a huge deal of respect for Silver.

 

Its very well thought out, and considering its impossible to get this perfect he does a great job in counting for multiple factors and varibles. Anything is better than FIFA's methodology especially for seeding.

I found it most interesting that Ivory Coast was so much higher in these rankings, mostly because they play so few home games, and HFA counts for so much in soccer.

 

Of course, that just makes me dread the Brazil/Netherlands/Ivory Coast/USA group even more.

 

I think this string of words should be banned from the soccer thread conversations.

[bukie]

A Team USA fan guide to the World Cup playoffs and seeding:

 

Starting tonight and ending Wednesday, the last of the World Cup qualifying matches will be played, and the field of 32 teams will be filled out. Here's a brief primer of what's on tap, and who to root for as a USA fan to get the best-case placement scenario for them. I'm going to list each squad's SPI rating to give a general idea of how strong each squad is.

 

For the World Cup Finals, FIFA arranges the 32 squads into 8 groups of 4. They use a method to spread squads out geographically as much as possible. Other than Europe, no 2 squads from the same continent can be in the same group (there are 13 European squads, so 5 groups will have 2 European squads). Squads are split into 4 pods according to geography, with a pod for the seeded squads and the host.

 

Seeded squads

• Seeding is determined by a combination of a squad's World FIFA rating and their performance in the prior two World Cup Finals.
  
• The host squad will always be one of the 8 seeds. This World Cup, that is #65 South Africa.
  
• Of the remaining seven seeds, six are already clinched for qualified teams: #1 Brazil, #2 Spain, #3 England, #5 Argentina, #6 Germany and #12 Italy.
  
• #14 USA is not going to get the last seed. That will go to one of three European squads: #7 Portugal, who would have to win a playoff against #29 Bosnia-Herzegovina to qualify, #9 France, who would have to win a playoff against #38 Ireland to advance, or #4 Holland, who has already qualified but is behind the others.
  
• If both #7 Portugal and #9 France, the squad that gets the last seed will come down to the final FIFA November ranking. Portugal would need to finish 5 spots ahead of France in the FIFA rankings to get the last seed.

 

Europe

• Since five seeds will be European squads, the remaining 8 squads in Europe will form a second pod.
  
• Nine European squads have already clinched qualification: #2 Spain, #3 England, #4 Holland, #6 Germany, #12 Italy, #15 Serbia, #21 Denmark, #33 Switzerland and #50 Slovakia.
  
• The remaining four spots will be decided by four two-leg playoffs played Saturday and Wednesday: #7 Portugal v. #29 Bosnia-Herzegovina, #9 France v. #38 Ireland, #13 Russia v. #40 Slovenia, and #37 Greece v. #20 Ukraine.
  
• Despite #37 Greece having a lower SPI than #20 Ukraine, they have the home field advantage for the second leg due to a higher FIFA ranking.

 

Africa

• Besides #65 South Africa, five other African squads qualify for the World Cup finals.
  
• Two squads have already clinched a spot with a match yet to be played Saturday: #11 Ivory Coast and #32 Ghana
  
• One spot will go to the winner of Group A. With one match to play Saturday, #16 Cameroon has 10 points, while #54 Gabon has 9 points. Cameroon visits Morocco while Gabon visits Togo.
  
• One spot will go to the winner of Group B. With one match to play Saturday, #41 Tunisia has 11 points, while #27 Nigeria has 9 points. Tunisia visits Mozambique while Nigeria visits Kenya.
  
• The final spot will go to the winner of Group C. #45 Algeria leads the group with 13 points, while #30 Egypt has 10 points. Algeria visits Egypt Saturday, with Egypt needing to win by 2 goals to force a tiebreaker, or 3 goals to qualify outright.

 

Asia and Oceania

• Four squads have qualified for the World Cup finals out of Asia: #24 Australia, #35 Japan, #43 South Korea and #89 North Korea.
  
• One additional spot will go to the winner of the playoff between #86 Bahrain and #90 New Zealand. The first leg of the playoff finished 0-0 at Bahrain. The second leg at New Zealand is Saturday at 2:00 AM ET.
  
• As Australia counts as an Asian squad, New Zealand counts as an Oceanic squad. Therefore, if Bahrain wins, there are 5 Asian squads, while if New Zealand wins, there are 4 Asian squads and an Oceanic squad. This is significant for the purpose of pod selection, as potentially New Zealand could be placed with an Asian squad if they qualify.

 

South and North America

• Four squads have qualified from South America: #1 Brazil, #5 Argentina, #8 Chile and #17 Paraguay.
  
• Three squads have qualified from North America: #14 USA, #18 Mexico and #22 Honduras.
  
• One final spot will go to the winner of the playoff between #10 Uruguay and #36 Costa Rica, played Saturday and Wednesday.
  
• South America has two seeded squads, and either two or three unseeded squads. North America has three or four unseeded squads.

 

Pod Selection

• As mentioned earlier, Pod A will be the eight seeds: #1 Brazil, #2 Spain, #3 England, #5 Argentina, #6 Germany, #12 Italy, #65 South Africa, and #7 Portugal/#9 France/#4 Holland.
  
• Pod B will be the eight unseeded European squads. Six will be #15 Serbia, #21 Denmark, #33 Switzerland, #50 Slovakia, the #13 Russia/#40 Slovenia winner, and the #37 Greece/#20 Ukraine winner. The remaining two will be the two unseeded squads of #4 Holland, the #7 Portugal/#29 Bosnia winner, and the #9 France/#38 Ireland winner.
  
• The remaining two pods will be combinations of federations, determined among 5 African squads, 4 or 5 Asian squads, 0 or 1 Oceanic squads, 2 or 3 South American squads, and 3 or 4 North American squads.

 

Playoff possibilities

• Favorites prevail: #86 Bahrain and #10 Uruguay qualify. This results in 3 North and South American squads, and 5 African and Asian squads. For competitive balance, South America and Africa are generally considered at a higher level than North America and Asia, respectively, so FIFA will likely put South America and Africa in Pod C, with North America and Asia in Pod D.
  
• #10 Uruguay and #90 New Zealand qualify. This results in 3 North and South American squads, 5 African squads, 4 Asian squads and one Oceanic squad. FIFA again puts the strong African and South American squads in one pod, with the relatively weaker North American, Asian and Oceanic squads filling the other pod.
  
• #36 Costa Rica and #90 New Zealand qualify. This results in 5 African squads, 4 North American and Asian squads, 2 South American squad and an Oceanic squad. FIFA's likely action will be to pair North America and Asia since the numbers work out, with Africa, South America and Oceania in the other pod.
  
• #36 Costa Rica and #86 Bahrain qualify. This results in 5 African and Asian squads, 4 North American squads and 2 South American squads. This is the worst case scenario for FIFA, as they'll have to split a confederation into two pods, but likely the best case scenario for the #14 USA.
  
• Why the last scenario? Reason being that without a clean geographical split, FIFA will likely have to divide by a talent split, pairing Africa and South America to make 7 squads in a pod, with North America and Asia making 9 in the other pod. To even out the numbers and maintain competitive balance, FIFA may choose to pull the highest ranked team from the Asia/North America pod, that being the #14 USA, and put it in the Africa/South America pod.
  
• If that happens, this is the good news: #14 USA can't be grouped with another North American team, meaning they'll get a weaker Asian team in their group. Also, paired with the African squads that can't be in #65 South Africa's group, they'll have a 33% chance of landing in South Africa's group as well.

 

So, to recap:

• Worst-case group scenarios for the USA: #1 Brazil, #4 Holland, #11 Ivory Coast, #14 USA or #2 Spain, #4 Holland, #8 Chile, #14 USA.
  
• Best-case group scenario for the USA: #14 USA, #50 Slovakia, #65 South Africa, #89 North Korea

 

So, go Bahrain, Costa Rica, Ireland and Bosnia!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Grant Wahl seems to think that Uruguay winning gives us that 33% shot at being in a pool with South Africa.

[bukie]

Grant Wahl seems to think that Uruguay winning gives us that 33% shot at being in a pool with South Africa.

I saw what Wahl wrote, and I disagree. I know what he's saying, that getting in the same pod with African teams gives those teams a 33% shot at the South Africa group. However, Uruguay winning will essentially make two federations of 5 teams and two of three, just like four years ago. I think FIFA is more likely to pair Africa and South America into the same pod, because (and they're right) Asia and North America are weaker, and they want to try to avoid a group of death as much as possible.

 

Costa Rica winning makes it so the numbers can't possibly matchup perfectly to separate pods by federation. Then FIFA is going to have to break up one of the federations into two pods, and putting the USA with Africa and South America makes the most sense for competitive balance.

 

But who really knows. Maybe FIFA won't set up pods according to geographical location at all this year, just to make things interesting.

[USSoccer]

FIFA will do anything possible to ensure South Africa has a favored path to the round of 16. Everything else that happens will result from this happening.

[shnsajax]

I just realized Donovan is playing right now so he won't be playing tomorrow, and I have no clue to what the roster looks like for the game. I am guessing mostly European based with a couple who's MLS season has already ended.

[Garwilly]

The source is vague, but this lists the roster, halfway down, under "Current Squad"

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USMNT

 

The following 22-man squad was named for the friendly match against Slovakia in Bratislava on November 14, 2009.

 

[CubbieBum]

http://www.totalprosports.com/blog/index.php/2009/11/soccer-taunt-backfires-on-goalie-video/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+totalprosports%2Fkonm+%28Total+Pro+Sports%29

 

This made me laugh when I saw this on PTI today. Wait for the third penalty kick.

[wolf stansson]

Houston does themselves a disservice by playing Holden so withdrawn. He was a monster box-to-box tonight and made some things happen in the attack but was just too often not up in the action. The Galaxy have a truly ugly offense. It's everything that's wrong with MLS. Two super talented guys and a bunch of stiffs = getting the ball to Beckham as often as possible followed by a long ball into the area with Landon trying to run onto it. I guess they have no choice, but it was hard to watch for 120+ minutes. Luis Angle Landin, the sometimes-El Tri designated player signing for Houston, is a fat, worthless piece of garbage who if I were Brian Ching, I'd kick in the face for being such a joke.

[USSoccer]

So I actually thought the US showed well despite the loss today:

 

-Johnny Specs looks really comfortable in the center. I want to see him against a team that doesn't play negative football though.

 

-Deuce had the offense running through him today. Had a couple of really good free kicks and a couple of poor ones. Sometimes he tried to get too cute in the 18 and I thought it cost him one really good chance. Played well on balance, although he's really not the "fulcrum" kind of player. We missed LD (obvious).

 

-Casey/Altidore isn't a good pairing, especially when trying to break a bunker. We held like 60% possession. EJ actually looked better than Casey, and I hate EJ.

 

-Bradley/Benny in the midfield was good today, but again, we played against a team that just sat back.

 

-Robbie Rogers is so left footed he's almost useless at the international level.

 

-Guzan is the goods. I like him more than Howard. I rate him higher than Howard. I think he's less athletic but much, much better technically, and I trust that over athleticism.

 

-Slovakia suck. They qualified out of a crap group and play crap soccer. Their PK was the result of Bornstein being stupid and not realizing he had help.

[USSoccer]

Houston does themselves a disservice by playing Holden so withdrawn. He was a monster box-to-box tonight and made some things happen in the attack but was just too often not up in the action. The Galaxy have a truly ugly offense. It's everything that's wrong with MLS. Two super talented guys and a bunch of stiffs = getting the ball to Beckham as often as possible followed by a long ball into the area with Landon trying to run onto it. I guess they have no choice, but it was hard to watch for 120+ minutes. Luis Angle Landin, the sometimes-El Tri designated player signing for Houston, is a fat, worthless piece of garbage who if I were Brian Ching, I'd kick in the face for being such a joke.

 

Both of those teams play boring styles. Tonights game is going to be a good one, since Chicago and RSL actually try and create chances. Plus I think LA's fans blow. Chicago's supporters section is solid.

 

I agree on Holden-why play him so deep when you have Rico Clark back there? They should attack more with Davis and Holden, but they don't. I don't get their tactics. They have speed, "size" in Ching and a couple really good mids.

 

-LA are only in the Cup because their back 4 + Ricketts is really good. It's the same offense from last season that can only score if Buddle gets a sitter or LD gets a PK. That said, 3 of their back 4 merit a look in January.

[shnsajax]

So I actually thought the US showed well despite the loss today:

 

-Johnny Specs looks really comfortable in the center. I want to see him against a team that doesn't play negative football though.

 

-Deuce had the offense running through him today. Had a couple of really good free kicks and a couple of poor ones. Sometimes he tried to get too cute in the 18 and I thought it cost him one really good chance. Played well on balance, although he's really not the "fulcrum" kind of player. We missed LD (obvious).

 

-Casey/Altidore isn't a good pairing, especially when trying to break a bunker. We held like 60% possession. EJ actually looked better than Casey, and I hate EJ.

 

-Bradley/Benny in the midfield was good today, but again, we played against a team that just sat back.

 

-Robbie Rogers is so left footed he's almost useless at the international level.

 

-Guzan is the goods. I like him more than Howard. I rate him higher than Howard. I think he's less athletic but much, much better technically, and I trust that over athleticism.

 

-Slovakia suck. They qualified out of a crap group and play crap soccer. Their PK was the result of Bornstein being stupid and not realizing he had help.

 

All in all it was a very underwhelming Friendly. The US was unlucky to get a goal in the 2nd minute. Casey and EJ should not be playing at all. Just as an experiment I would still like to see Torres up front with Altidore or between him and Donovan. He has the pace and delivery that can spring forward Altidore and even Donovan.

 

I really like Spector, he has his chance. Hopefully he takes advantage. I really like the crosses that Rogers provides but he doesn't do a lot of anything else.

 

The game didn't matter, and I am not even sure if Slovakia made tickets available to the public. Brazil v England now is interesting as England is missing over half of their starters due to injury.

[USSoccer]

So I actually thought the US showed well despite the loss today:

 

-Johnny Specs looks really comfortable in the center. I want to see him against a team that doesn't play negative football though.

 

-Deuce had the offense running through him today. Had a couple of really good free kicks and a couple of poor ones. Sometimes he tried to get too cute in the 18 and I thought it cost him one really good chance. Played well on balance, although he's really not the "fulcrum" kind of player. We missed LD (obvious).

 

-Casey/Altidore isn't a good pairing, especially when trying to break a bunker. We held like 60% possession. EJ actually looked better than Casey, and I hate EJ.

 

-Bradley/Benny in the midfield was good today, but again, we played against a team that just sat back.

 

-Robbie Rogers is so left footed he's almost useless at the international level.

 

-Guzan is the goods. I like him more than Howard. I rate him higher than Howard. I think he's less athletic but much, much better technically, and I trust that over athleticism.

 

-Slovakia suck. They qualified out of a crap group and play crap soccer. Their PK was the result of Bornstein being stupid and not realizing he had help.

 

All in all it was a very underwhelming Friendly. The US was unlucky to get a goal in the 2nd minute. Casey and EJ should not be playing at all. Just as an experiment I would still like to see Torres up front with Altidore or between him and Donovan. He has the pace and delivery that can spring forward Altidore and even Donovan.

 

I really like Spector, he has his chance. Hopefully he takes advantage. I really like the crosses that Rogers provides but he doesn't do a lot of anything else.

 

The game didn't matter, and I am not even sure if Slovakia made tickets available to the public. Brazil v England now is interesting as England is missing over half of their starters due to injury.

 

Putting a Torres behind the forwards would work but would require an absolute destroyer behind the mids, and we'd have to completely change our tactics.

 

I think what we'll end up seeing is Altidore and Dempsey up front with Rogers at RM where Clint usually plays.

[wolf stansson]

Eddie Johnson? What a joke. Adu plays more than he does.

 

I'd like to see Robbie Findley or Cunningham given a look, but in the end I think you're right that it'll be Dempsey and Altidore.

[USSoccer]

Eddie Johnson? What a joke. Adu plays more than he does.

 

I'd like to see Robbie Findley or Cunningham given a look, but in the end I think you're right that it'll be Dempsey and Altidore.

 

 

Eddie was our best striker today. Consider that.

 

I think we're really going to miss Chuck D. come next June.

[wolf stansson]

Eddie was our best striker today. Consider that.

I'm just so sick of these zombie strikers that reanimate out of nowhere to reprove they aren't international caliber. If you're going to waste time reproving you suck, at least have the decency to do it like Jeff Cunningham by taking a ton of time off the scene and then start scoring goals at a ridiculous pace in your league. That at least gives me time to forget that I hate you and also gives Bob a legit reason to call you in. You can't just sit on a bench for two years and then get recalled. That's insane. I know it's a bit of a misnomer because two of our logical, in form replacements were busy in Ching and Findley, but good lord put Cunningham or Cooper in there or something. [expletive] EJ?

 

Also him being our best striker today doesn't mean anything. I know you know that and you were just pointing it out as an indictment on Jozy and Casey. He only played (hopefully) because of the unavailability of Landon, Ching, Findley, Davies and the necessity of playing Clint in the midfield.

 

Regardless, we were the better team today with a second choice squad on a terrible pitch in Slovakia. I'm with you on Guzan. I think he's better than Friedel. I think he's as good as Howard. On form playing consistently, he might be better than Howard. Not so much better that I'd be mad if he didn't usurp Tim, but still better. There's no way barring injury that anyone other than Tim Howard is our top choice keeper in South Africa. I have no real problem with that.

 

Playing without the talisman today keeps you from drawing any real conclusion about the attack (other than the conclusion that we're way too Donovan-reliant) but I said it at the time of the accident and I'll say it again. Davies speed, strength and aggressiveness has proven to be the only thing that we've tried that can open up the field for our play-making midfielders in Donovan and Dempsey and without him, we lose a huge part of our attack. It relegates us to sloppy long balls and a long day of Landon getting marked out of the game. All those games over the last two years where Landon and Clint would have bad games and all of our post game thoughts would be "Landon and Clint didn't do much, but they didn't get any service whatsoever so it's not totally their fault" are going to be repeated until either Davies comes back or we figure out another way to play. If there is one for this team.

 

 

I wonder if Bradley considers begging McBride back for one last run? He doesn't bring what Davies brings, but he's better than anything else up top.

 

 

Some MLS stuff:

Toronto FC hired Preki as their coach. Brilliant, unexpected move. Unexpected because Mo Johnston is a dumbass and this is a really savvy move. Preki is a fantastic MLS coach.

 

Also, here is the new Philadelphia Union kit. I dig it. Behind Toronto, I think this is the best kit in the league:

http://www.soccerbyives.net/.a/6a00e54ef2975b88330120a69f0454970b-500wi

[CubbieBum]

Can't go wrong with black and gold.

 

As far as the up front question ... we have a handful of players who are average and can score at times but do little else. I think all of them have the ability to step up but I don't really expect any of them to do it because they have all been around for awhile. I would say Jozy is pretty easily the top one.

[USSoccer]

Eddie was our best striker today. Consider that.

I'm just so sick of these zombie strikers that reanimate out of nowhere to reprove they aren't international caliber. If you're going to waste time reproving you suck, at least have the decency to do it like Jeff Cunningham by taking a ton of time off the scene and then start scoring goals at a ridiculous pace in your league. That at least gives me time to forget that I hate you and also gives Bob a legit reason to call you in. You can't just sit on a bench for two years and then get recalled. That's insane. I know it's a bit of a misnomer because two of our logical, in form replacements were busy in Ching and Findley, but good lord put Cunningham or Cooper in there or something. [expletive] EJ?

 

Also him being our best striker today doesn't mean anything. I know you know that and you were just pointing it out as an indictment on Jozy and Casey. He only played (hopefully) because of the unavailability of Landon, Ching, Findley, Davies and the necessity of playing Clint in the midfield.

 

Regardless, we were the better team today with a second choice squad on a terrible pitch in Slovakia. I'm with you on Guzan. I think he's better than Friedel. I think he's as good as Howard. On form playing consistently, he might be better than Howard. Not so much better that I'd be mad if he didn't usurp Tim, but still better. There's no way barring injury that anyone other than Tim Howard is our top choice keeper in South Africa. I have no real problem with that.

 

Playing without the talisman today keeps you from drawing any real conclusion about the attack (other than the conclusion that we're way too Donovan-reliant) but I said it at the time of the accident and I'll say it again. Davies speed, strength and aggressiveness has proven to be the only thing that we've tried that can open up the field for our play-making midfielders in Donovan and Dempsey and without him, we lose a huge part of our attack. It relegates us to sloppy long balls and a long day of Landon getting marked out of the game. All those games over the last two years where Landon and Clint would have bad games and all of our post game thoughts would be "Landon and Clint didn't do much, but they didn't get any service whatsoever so it's not totally their fault" are going to be repeated until either Davies comes back or we figure out another way to play. If there is one for this team.

 

 

I wonder if Bradley considers begging McBride back for one last run? He doesn't bring what Davies brings, but he's better than anything else up top.

 

 

Some MLS stuff:

Toronto FC hired Preki as their coach. Brilliant, unexpected move. Unexpected because Mo Johnston is a [expletive] and this is a really savvy move. Preki is a fantastic MLS coach.

 

 

I really hope McBride stays retired. He's not international caliber anymore.

 

I do think there is another way for us to play, but it would be counter to USSF's mandated 4-4-2. You could put Torres or Deuce in the hole or play a Xmas tree 4-3-2-1 but that won't happen. I'd like to see Robbie Findley get some burn with the first team as he's probably the "like for like" choice when trying to replace Davies. You could give Cooper an extended look, as he lacks pace but does have the technical ability to hit teams on the counter. I'd even like to see Adu slightly withdrawn playing a pivot role before seeing Casey, Ching or EJ. Movsysian isn't good enough, I don't think and then we have a bunch of meh left to choose from. Jozy's going to have to raise his game or we're going to be back to hoping for set piece goals again.

 

And I'm going to call it now in advance that Tim Howard will cost us a game in SA. He relies way too much on his athleticism and he'll do something dumb like stray off his line and get beat. His form hasn't impressed me at all, really, in 2009. Not even against Spain, where it was mostly our back 6 blocking shots and not so much Howard making amazing saves.

[Jon]

Busch with a pair of fantastic/lucky saves. About to go into the half with no score.

[Garwilly]

RSL wins 5-4 in 7 PK rounds

[wolf stansson]

Well MLS suits are psyched. LA ought to be able to handle RSL. Now we get to hear all about how Beckham wins everywhere he goes, blah blah blah, take that haterz, etc.

[USSoccer]

Ned Grabavoy is a wiener.

 

Stupid Fire. That crowd deserved better.

[Guest]

New Zealand advanced today and Uruguay won 1-0 at the Saprissa. It's looking like our chances of getting South Africa just took a big hit.

[bukie]

New Zealand advanced today and Uruguay won 1-0 at the Saprissa. It's looking like our chances of getting South Africa just took a big hit.

Yeah, the best shot now is that FIFA decides to pair Africa and North America in the same pool, just because they didn't do that last time. I still think it's likelier that Africa and South America get paired because of competitive balance, but it's all up to FIFA.

 

EDIT: Also, France won at Ireland, so the chances of landing an unseeded Netherlands in the group just went up too.