Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-7-2006

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Boise loses 3-1. Mesa loses 2-1.

[Outshined_One]

I don't want to have to say this again, but I'm hoping this is the last time I have to say it about Moneyball.

 

I think that the vast majority of the old school crowd who really dislike Moneyball either never read it or never really understood what it was about (or possibly both). The simplified argument is that it focuses too heavily on stats and that it's all about Oakland's love affair with OBP.

 

Problem is...that's not really what it was about. Moneyball was about running a business with only limited number of resources. It was about finding ways to utilize and exploit the market in order to maximize the potential signings at the disposal of the Athletics. It centered on economics, risk assessment, and investing. If you took most of the human element out of the book, you could look into it like a book on the stock market.

 

Beane was attempting to find weaknesses in the market. Basically, he tried to find the players who were undervalued, not sought out, relatively cheap, and most likely to return their investment, if not with interest. The problem is, the scouts who based their assessments on traditional statistics, gut feelings, and tools were not consistently effective enough to justify taking certain risks (such as taking a highly projectible high school pitcher). The Athletics needed a method which had a lower floor (and by extension, a lower ceiling) since they needed to spend their money wisely.

 

Enter OBP and taking college pitchers higher in the draft than was the norm at the time. These guys were cheap, since other teams ignored or were unaware of those stats. Oakland was able to get them cheaply and were also using a less risky way of evaluating the guys, meaning they'd be more likely to make the majors (albeit, it was not 100% effective and these guys were less likely to become superstars).

 

As you can see with recent Oakland drafts, their philosophy has shifted. More teams have been picking up on OBP and heavily utilizing statistics (Boston, Toronto, LA Dodgers for a period of time, etc), meaning those guys were no longer undervalued and pricing themselves out of Oakland's range. Recently, they've been taking more high school arms.

 

Short version: Moneyball's not about the wonders of OBP and computers. It's about one effective way of running a business in baseball when your budget is limited.

[Mephistopheles]

Extended Version: Teaching OBP in the minors is cheaper then buying. OBP is now overvalued in the market and young pitching, defense and speed are undervalued.

[craig]

Extended Version: Teaching OBP in the minors is cheaper then buying. OBP is now overvalued in the market and young pitching, defense and speed are undervalued.

 

heh heh, Hendry is actually a huge moneyball philosopher!

 

If kc is correct, then by not pursuing overvalued OBP and by instead pursuing undervalued speed, defense, and young pitching, Hendry is being super smart!

 

Whaddya think? Rather than being way behind the game, clever hendry is really way ahead of the game?

[abuck1220]

i once saw an oakland player refuse a little kid's autograph request. stupid moneyball.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Extended Version: Teaching OBP in the minors is cheaper then buying. OBP is now overvalued in the market and young pitching, defense and speed are undervalued.

 

heh heh, Hendry is actually a huge moneyball philosopher!

 

If kc is correct, then by not pursuing overvalued OBP and by instead pursuing undervalued speed, defense, and young pitching, Hendry is being super smart!

 

Whaddya think? Rather than being way behind the game, clever hendry is really way ahead of the game?

 

I'd be kind of surprised if young pitching was ever undervalued in baseball.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

"Soto was 1-for-10 on Iowa's current homestand, but singled in the second inning and then crushed a ball over the inflatable mitt in left field. The coup came on a 3-0 count, a time when most .253 hitters would likely keep the bat on their shoulder.

 

"I looked to my manager and he didn't do anything, so I assumed I had the green light," Soto said..

 

"It was the right thing to do; it's always good when it works out," Cubs manager Mike Quade said of Soto hitting 3-0. "He put a great swing on the ball."

 

...

 

Everything was working," Soto said. "He [Jae-Kuk Ryu] was throwing his change-up down, his curve ball was good, and his velocity was good."

 

"His first stint up there wasn't very good, but he's heading in the right direction," Quade said. "He's kept himself in the picture all year and I have no doubt he can get guys out at the next level."

[CubColtPacer]

Extended Version: Teaching OBP in the minors is cheaper then buying. OBP is now overvalued in the market and young pitching, defense and speed are undervalued.

 

heh heh, Hendry is actually a huge moneyball philosopher!

 

If kc is correct, then by not pursuing overvalued OBP and by instead pursuing undervalued speed, defense, and young pitching, Hendry is being super smart!

 

Whaddya think? Rather than being way behind the game, clever hendry is really way ahead of the game?

 

Beane did say in 2004 in an interview that now that OBP had caught on that he is trying to build his teams around pitching and defense-he then said that he might some day in the future be building teams around teams who like to steal lots of bases, you just never know. So all that is possible-there is just one big flaw. One, we haven't been very good at any of those things this year, we'll see about next year and two-we don't need to always be thinking about efficiency with our payroll, but rather excellence-efficiency should be a big part, but we can take some risks on guys that teams like Oakland cannot.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Jaxx lose their 5th in a row :(

Tough for them to be consistent when so much of their projected starting staff is now pitching for Chicago. I expected Marshall to start the year in West Tenn. They've recently lost Marmol & Mateo. They've had guys called up to AAA to replace Hill & others.

 

Tough way to build a successful run at the playoffs.

 

But it's great news as Cubs fans that these guys are getting called up and holding their own.

 

Only JR Mathes is there from the opening rotation (Dave Cash - cut, Carlos Marmol - big leagues, Juan Mateo - big leagues, Randy Wells - AAA). And not only was Marshall expected to start there, there was a chance Guzman might have too. That's some turnover.

 

Daytona also only has 1 original starter - Mark Holliman (Justin Berg - injured, Sean Gallagher - AA, Luke Hagerty - Mesa instructionals, Grant Johnson - bullpen). While Daytona is in first place, they haven't had to replace the type of pitching talent West Tenn has had to..