Izturis...a comparison

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm going to preface this by saying that I like the Cubs. I want them to do well, and I'm looking for ways that things might turn out well for them. I'm not too excited about the Izturis trade, but I want it to work out okay. So, in a search for rationalization of this move, I noticed a coincidence.

 

Many people were not happy the last time the Cubs acquired a 26 year old player who had a near .290 career OBP in roughly 2000 major league at bats. That 26 year old didn't have a great minor league career to go off of, and like this situation he was taking the place of the incumbent who was serviceable but not earth shattering. If you haven't figured it out by now, I'm comparing him to Michael Barrett. There are some differences between the two, Barrett having the better career major and minor league numbers, and Izturis being quite a bit younger when traveling through those levels. Barrett was a man caught between C and 3B, Izturis is a fine defender at SS.

 

Now, and I want this to be inescapably clear, I don't think it's very likely Izturis has a breakout of Barrett's proportions. What I am saying is that players have the best years of their careers during their prime, which Izturis is going to be entering. Like Barrett, Izturis was highly regarded at one point, he wouldn't be exceeding his potential if he were an okay offensive SS. Izturis in previous seasons has been very unlucky with batted balls, hitting a lot of line drives and possessing good speed yet having a very low BABIP, especially for his LD%.

 

What I'm getting at is that maybe Izturis won't be the nightmare we are seeing at this moment. Don't confuse this for excusing Hendry though. This trade is horrible on a number of fronts. It shows a staggering lack of identification of the team's needs, lack of value placed in certain qualities and overvalue of others, and a mismanagement of the contracts involved. However, just because he made a terrible deal doesn't mean he can't get lucky, or correctly identify Izturis as better than the sum of his career to date.

[David]

Good post.

 

The trade still sucks, though.

[DiamondMind]

I think expecting a .290/.335/.400 line with GG defense and a few doubles and triples is very, very possible.

 

Cedeno and Izturis are a *sick* double play combo.

 

I just don't think SS/2B are positions you are looking for offense from. You want your big sticks to be at LF, RF, 1B, and possibly 3B or C.

 

Obviously the Cubs have offensive problems, but not getting huge production from SS/2B is not the issue - our pathetic outfield is. Murton has been a huge dissapointment, 4 taters from your LF is terrible no matter how you slice it. Jones has decent numbers but reminds me of a weaker Sosa in the sense that he K's like it's going out of style and is dead and buried with two strikes.

 

Hendry has the right idea here, assuming offseason FA acquisitions are made in other positions. If not, stupid trade as Walker helps us more if we aren't going to acquire more offense.

 

This trade depends on the actions of Hendry, not Izturis.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Actually, Tiger......I think a better comparasion would be Omar Vizquel. Omar wasn't exactly "hot stuff" with the bat as an offensive player, but once he got to Cleveland he became a very solid player. Now granted, for his stay in Cleveland, he played with both Alomar's, Belle, Thome, Ramirez, Sorrento, Lofton, Fryman, Baerga....so with that kind of offensive talent around, Omar could relaz and play his game. Now if the Cubs could land a big bat or two (Depedning on ARam), maybe Izturis could be the next Vizquel, (I'm not holding my breathe) and relax and become the player everybody thought he would be before his injury.

 

With that said....Cedeno/Izturis NEEDS to talk to Gywnn about hitting, and taking pitches, in the worst of ways.

[FergieJ31]

My impression of Barrett when he signed with the Cubs was that he spent a good chunk of 2000 and 2003 banged up, and it impacted his numbers pretty badly. The Cubs were effectively betting that the 'true' Michael Barrett was the .300/.350 guy he showed as a rookie, a converted 3B. He was maturing at the plate and it showed in his increased IsoD numbers his last two seasons with Mtl: the 0.070 IsoD mitigated his poor BA.

 

I wasn't a fan of the MB signing then because I worried more about his defense. That's another topic altogether which has been debated ad nauseum on this board. But offensively he's worked better than almost everyone realistically hoped for back in 04 -- that much is certain.

 

But Izzy's IsoD numbers (presumably the most predictive component of his OBP) are absolutely abysmal by comparison to MB: 0.034, under half of MB's 0.070. No pop in the bat, contrary to what we heard today from some joker on ESPN. So no, I don't think Barrett's situation is really comparable or cause for any hope. Izzy will almost certainly be an anemic bat -- shove him in the 7 or 8 hole and keep expectations rock bottom.

 

In isolation, forgetting the rest of the Cubs' problems, I think there's been too much focus on Izzy's poor offense. My biggest worry about him is his health and how it rates to affect his defense. What is the nature of this 'degenerative arthritic condition'? Does anyone know how this thing plays out over time?

 

If the Cubs miraculously are able to keep ARam AND get at least one more stud for the OF and/or 2B AND sign Jason Schmidt, then I can live with Izzy's poor offense -- IF he really has a good glove and good range.

[cheapseats]

Actually, Tiger......I think a better comparasion would be Omar Vizquel.

 

Omar Vizquel is Izturis's #1 comp in PECOTA, with a score of 53, which means at his age, he looks a lot like Vizquel did at the same age.

 

Izturis's #2 comp is Cristian Guzman, though, with the same score of 53.

 

I hope he progresses like Vizquel in the near future, but I think it's more likely we see the second coming of Cristian Guzman.

[NewUserName]

Very few players do a career turn around like Omar Vizquel. Vizquel also went to an organization that valued OBP. I dont think Isturis is all of a sudden going to come to the Cubs and be taught the value of getting on base and the best way to do it. So I am more inclined to think that Christian Guzman is what we can expect.

[CubColtPacer]

I think the big question is how does he come back from his injury? Here has what he has done over his career OBP wise.

2002 (first full time year-age 22)-.253 OBP

2003 (second full time year-age 23)-.282 OBP

2004 (age 24)-.330 OBP

2005 (age 25)-.302 overall-remember though, this number is skewed. Izturis played almost half the season with injuries-so let me divide it into pre injury and post injury (pre injury-.387 OBP, with injuries-.218 OBP)

2006 (age 26)-he has a .302 OBP-remember for this one-this is only based on 119 at bats that are coming off his injury-he only came back in late June, so this number could end up being very different one way or the other by the end of the season.

 

I see some hope in this deal because of this reason. Izturis has continually improved his numbers every year until the injuries caught up with him. Do I think he can hit as well as the beginning of 2005? No-that would have been an absolute career year for him just like it was for Lee. If he can come back healthy though, I think he can come back to that .330 OBP or maybe even a little more. He is just entering the prime of his career now, and I think it might be likely that he returns to those numbers-is it for sure? No-but I think his career .295 is a little misleading (because half of those at bats came when he was extremely young, and some when injured) and also his .302 the last year and a half, because he has been hurt most of the last year. In short, we have a player that continued to improve at the plate every year he was in the majors, got hurt in a career year (.387 OBP), and is now coming back from that injury and trying to regain that hitting stroke. I'm not sure we really will know what we have until 2007 as he probably will continue to be gaining his hitting stroke the rest of this year, but I think you might be pleasantly surprised in 07.

[cubweiser03]

Very few players do a career turn around like Omar Vizquel. Vizquel also went to an organization that valued OBP. I dont think Isturis is all of a sudden going to come to the Cubs and be taught the value of getting on base and the best way to do it. So I am more inclined to think that Christian Guzman is what we can expect.

 

I too think Guzman is more appt conparison. Omar had better ISoD in the minors than Iz so i would look at that as an another indicator as why it might be a reach for him to perform like Omar in MLB.

 

If you want to compare this Cub move to another Cub move i would compare it more towards the 3 year deal to Alez Gonzalez. Iz is Alez without the pop and the ks. At least with this one they didnt commit 3 years. Only and year and half.....yeah i know, glass half full.

 

The BABIP stat is interesting if it is low for Iz, especially the LD% part. Also it looks like in roughly 100 AB this year Iz actually has more BB than Ks. This is a good trend, albeit small, but still noteworthy to me.

[Wolverineman]

I think a good comparison for Izturis is none other than former Cub Corey Patterson, minus the power/power potential. Both players are allergic to the walk. Both players have good defensive reputations. Both players came up quickly through the farm system and were very highly thought of. Both struggled their first couple years in the majors before a breakout(or fluke) half season that was ended by injury. Corey never came close to his '03 self again, and I'd be surprised if Izturis ever comes near what he did in the first couple months last year.

[Dr. Cub]

Actually, Tiger......I think a better comparasion would be Omar Vizquel.

 

Omar Vizquel is Izturis's #1 comp in PECOTA, with a score of 53, which means at his age, he looks a lot like Vizquel did at the same age.

 

Izturis's #2 comp is Cristian Guzman, though, with the same score of 53.

 

I hope he progresses like Vizquel in the near future, but I think it's more likely we see the second coming of Cristian Guzman.

 

I was upset enough about this deal, and then you had to go and mention Christian Guzman? That's just mean.

[badger1679666666]

Well this thread has successfully stopped me from slitting my wrists, so that's saying something.

[goonys evil twin]

Izturis wasn't highly thought of for his offense, he was lauded for his defense. Barrett actually did a lot of good things later in his minor league career, putting up an OPS around 900 in AA and AAA. Barrett also didn't have a degenerative injury nor did he undergo Tommy John surgery. Plus, Izturis isn't about to enter his prime, he's already in it.

[snoodmonger]

I think the big question is how does he come back from his injury? Here has what he has done over his career OBP wise.

2002 (first full time year-age 22)-.253 OBP

2003 (second full time year-age 23)-.282 OBP

2004 (age 24)-.330 OBP

2005 (age 25)-.302 overall-remember though, this number is skewed. Izturis played almost half the season with injuries-so let me divide it into pre injury and post injury (pre injury-.387 OBP, with injuries-.218 OBP)

2006 (age 26)-he has a .302 OBP-remember for this one-this is only based on 119 at bats that are coming off his injury-he only came back in late June, so this number could end up being very different one way or the other by the end of the season.

 

I see some hope in this deal because of this reason. Izturis has continually improved his numbers every year until the injuries caught up with him. Do I think he can hit as well as the beginning of 2005? No-that would have been an absolute career year for him just like it was for Lee. If he can come back healthy though, I think he can come back to that .330 OBP or maybe even a little more. He is just entering the prime of his career now, and I think it might be likely that he returns to those numbers-is it for sure? No-but I think his career .295 is a little misleading (because half of those at bats came when he was extremely young, and some when injured) and also his .302 the last year and a half, because he has been hurt most of the last year. In short, we have a player that continued to improve at the plate every year he was in the majors, got hurt in a career year (.387 OBP), and is now coming back from that injury and trying to regain that hitting stroke. I'm not sure we really will know what we have until 2007 as he probably will continue to be gaining his hitting stroke the rest of this year, but I think you might be pleasantly surprised in 07.

 

Interesting stuff. He walked 14 times as a 22-year-old and 43 two-years-later. That's marked improvement and a sign that a young player might have been figuring it out, at least to some degree.

 

His SLG went up each year, too. (From .303 to .381 in that same two year period.) If we hire a competent coaching staff, and if he can fully recover from injury, maybe this guy can more than Neifi 2.0.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Interesting stuff. He walked 14 times as a 22-year-old and 43 two-years-later. That's marked improvement and a sign that a young player might have been figuring it out, at least to some degree.

 

He also had 260 more plate appearances.

[mg420]

Izturis wasn't highly thought of for his offense, he was lauded for his defense. Barrett actually did a lot of good things later in his minor league career, putting up an OPS around 900 in AA and AAA. Barrett also didn't have a degenerative injury nor did he undergo Tommy John surgery. Plus, Izturis isn't about to enter his prime, he's already in it.

 

not every player hits his prime at the same time. back to the visquel comparison again, omar didnt hit his prime offensively until 1996 when he was 29.

[goonys evil twin]

Interesting stuff. He walked 14 times as a 22-year-old and 43 two-years-later. That's marked improvement and a sign that a young player might have been figuring it out, at least to some degree.

 

He also had 260 more plate appearances.

 

details details details.

 

 

He had a .311 OBP in the minors, taking just 113 walks in well over 2200 at bats. He's taken just 116 walks in over 2300 major league at bats. Corey Patterson took 107 walks in less than 1400 minor league at bats, and 126 in 2500 career at bats.

 

There is no marked improvement in Izturis's patience. He's always been worthless at the plate and likely always will be.

[goonys evil twin]

Izturis wasn't highly thought of for his offense, he was lauded for his defense. Barrett actually did a lot of good things later in his minor league career, putting up an OPS around 900 in AA and AAA. Barrett also didn't have a degenerative injury nor did he undergo Tommy John surgery. Plus, Izturis isn't about to enter his prime, he's already in it.

 

not every player hits his prime at the same time. back to the visquel comparison again, omar didnt hit his prime offensively until 1996 when he was 29.

 

Not every, but the vast majority. Hoping for a diamond in the rough, and paying a small fortune for the right to rely on nothing but hope doesn't seem very wise to me.

[Soul]

Interesting stuff. He walked 14 times as a 22-year-old and 43 two-years-later. That's marked improvement and a sign that a young player might have been figuring it out, at least to some degree.

 

He also had 260 more plate appearances.

 

details details details.

 

 

He had a .311 OBP in the minors, taking just 113 walks in well over 2200 at bats. He's taken just 116 walks in over 2300 major league at bats. Corey Patterson took 107 walks in less than 1400 minor league at bats, and 126 in 2500 career at bats.

 

There is no marked improvement in Izturis's patience. He's always been worthless at the plate and likely always will be.

 

He does look incredibly Neifi-like from the stats.

 

I don't understand what possesses Hendry to think these type of players will get you where you need to go.

 

Surely Hendry will not try to foist a Cedeno/Izturis middle infield on us, with Neifi backing up the two positions. Not in '07 I mean. There's got to be something else coming. I mean come on, Hendry would like to keep his job, right? That's tantamount to career suicide. It cemets the bottom of our order as the worst in MLB on a team that is already terrible offensively.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't understand what possesses Hendry to think these type of players will get you where you need to go.

 

Because his thoughts on the game were formulated years ago, and they have not evolved. He bought into all the cliches about defense winning championships, and just putting the ball in play being most important. He believes this stuff, regardless of the results.

[cheapseats]

It cemets the bottom of our order as the worst in MLB on a team that is already terrible offensively.

 

Bottom of the order? Cesar is hitting second, dude. All hail Cesar!

[mg420]

Izturis wasn't highly thought of for his offense, he was lauded for his defense. Barrett actually did a lot of good things later in his minor league career, putting up an OPS around 900 in AA and AAA. Barrett also didn't have a degenerative injury nor did he undergo Tommy John surgery. Plus, Izturis isn't about to enter his prime, he's already in it.

 

not every player hits his prime at the same time. back to the visquel comparison again, omar didnt hit his prime offensively until 1996 when he was 29.

 

Not every, but the vast majority. Hoping for a diamond in the rough, and paying a small fortune for the right to rely on nothing but hope doesn't seem very wise to me.

 

it probably isnt the smartest thing to do but maddux wasnt worth a whole lot anyway. whatever happens with izturis, the most disturbing thing about this whole situation to me is that there is already talk of signing maddux back for 2007! unless he comes back as a pitching coach, the cubs would be nuts to have him back on the team imo.

[goonys evil twin]

it probably isnt the smartest thing to do but maddux wasnt worth a whole lot anyway.

 

I know he wasn't worth more, my problem is that getting back nothing would have been better than this. Izturis costs a lot of money to do the same thing Neifi does, which is hurt the ballclub offensively. The Cubs don't need any more drags on their scoring ability.

[Soul]

It cemets the bottom of our order as the worst in MLB on a team that is already terrible offensively.

 

Bottom of the order? Cesar is hitting second, dude. All hail Cesar!

 

 

Haha. When they see him hit 2nd this year, they'll have to reconsider.

[goonys evil twin]

It cemets the bottom of our order as the worst in MLB on a team that is already terrible offensively.

 

Bottom of the order? Cesar is hitting second, dude. All hail Cesar!

 

 

Haha. When they see him hit 2nd this year, they'll have to reconsider.

 

They saw Neifi do it a lot and don't seem to have any second thoughts.