Minor League Discussion & Boxes 7-20-2006

[texascub]

Colvin is 2-2 with a single, double, rbi, and run in Boise's game so far. His average is up to .284 on the season and although his power hasn't come around yet, he has really been racking up the doubles over the last few games.

 

EDIT: I just scrolled down and saw that he's also got an assist tonight as well.

[Jon]

Colvin with a solo HR in the 4th.

[texascub]

Colvin has now tacked on a solo homer tonight, he's just a triple short of the cycle and the game is only in the bottom of the 4th. Boise is winning 6-5, Billek has been really roughed up: 3IP 7H 5R 1/3 K/BB 2 HR

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Second straight day he's been an XBH shy of the cycle (yesterday he was a HR shy). Of course he still has a few more ABs today...

 

Boise up 10-5 in the 5th in another classic pitcher's duel between Everett and Boise (following yesterday's 14-10 Boise loss).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

WT won 5-3.

 

Colvin retired for the first time on the night on a first-pitch 4-3 groundout.

[craig]

... although his power hasn't come around yet, he has really been racking up the doubles over the last few games..

 

I'd been thinking the opposite, that his power has been a pleasant surprise. He's got 3 HR's already in what 80 AB? Project that to an everyday big-leaguer and your around 20. He's hit lots of doubles, like you say, especially lately. Of 24 hits, 9 have been for XBH, that's very good. His slugging is now over .500, his IsoP over .200. So I think his power has been very encouraging. If he's hitting XBH and HR's like this at age 20, who knows what he'll be able to do at age 26 and 29.

 

He's really been on a tear, though, that's for sure.

 

As have both Clevenger and Lansford, neither of whom has shown power but both have excellent BB/K profiles. Clevenger didn't seem to get much appreciation at draft; the view I inferred was, why take a SS who lacks the D for SS but lacks the power for 3rd? But if his D can handle 2nd, heh looks very interesting as a contact hitting plate-discipline OBP 2B.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Ugh. HR #3 served up by Billek. This one's a 2-run shot by Halman (who had 2 off Pina last night) and it's now 10-7.

 

Billek's night is over: 4.2 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1 K, 4 BB, HBP, 3 HR

[CaliforniaRaisin]

... although his power hasn't come around yet, he has really been racking up the doubles over the last few games..

 

I'd been thinking the opposite, that his power has been a pleasant surprise. He's got 3 HR's already in what 80 AB? Project that to an everyday big-leaguer and your around 20. He's hit lots of doubles, like you say, especially lately. Of 24 hits, 9 have been for XBH, that's very good. His slugging is now over .500, his IsoP over .200. So I think his power has been very encouraging. If he's hitting XBH and HR's like this at age 20, who knows what he'll be able to do at age 26 and 29.

 

I'm wary that it's just a hot streak for Colvin. Hopefully he has turned the corner and is playing like the guy Wilken saw.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Billek has had a rough year:

 

Daytona: 18.1 IP, 0-1, 8.84 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, .329 BAA, 10 Ks, 10 BBs, 1 HBP, 5 HRs

Peoria: 35 IP, 4-5, 5.66 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, .300 BAA, 25 Ks, 11 BBs, 1 HBP, 3 HRs

Boise: 25 IP, 1-1, 7.20 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, .330 BAA, 11 Ks, 7 BBs, 4 HBP, 5 HRs

 

Total: 78.1 IP, 5-7, 6.89 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, .317 BAA, 46 Ks, 28 BBs, 6 HBP, 13 HRs

 

Very disappointing for a third round pick from last season.

[Outshined_One]

I'm wary that it's just a hot streak for Colvin. Hopefully he has turned the corner and is playing like the guy Wilken saw.

 

I'd be wary of it, but his IsoD is rather encouraging (.077). That tells me he's doing a reasonable job of controlling and making contact in the strike zone while still holding off on bad pitches outside his zone. I'd expect him to be doing well with that, considering the level, but it tells me that there is plenty of hope for him.

 

Moreover, some people were concerned about his transition from metal to wood, given his swing, power, and so on. I think he has managed to answer those questions effectively. Plus, he's been playing CF, hitting triples, and stealing bases. If he can stick at CF, his prospect profile would jump by leaps and bounds.

 

I'm actually rather excited for him. I was a bit disappointed in the pick at the time (I wanted Snider), but I was nowhere near as pissed off/annoyed/angry at the pick as a number of people on the board.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Not only is Tyler Colvin a triple shy of the cycle, Alfred Joseph is a HR shy of the cycle.

 

Colvin flies out to LF in his 5th AB in the top of the 8th.

 

In the middle of the 8th, Boise still leads 10-7.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Colvin strikes out in his 6th AB of the game and for the second straight game, comes one XBH shy of the cycle. Joseph failed to hit a HR so he too did not get a cycle.

 

Boise wins it 13-7.

[RyCubsFan]

Me likin' Veal!

[Quakers]

Not only is Tyler Colvin a triple shy of the cycle, Alfred Joseph is a HR shy of the cycle.

 

Colvin flies out to LF in his 5th AB in the top of the 8th.

 

In the middle of the 8th, Boise still leads 10-7.

 

Keep your eye on Joseph. He is repeating at Boise, but he is still young for the league. I think this kid could be a real find.

[texascub]

Not only is Tyler Colvin a triple shy of the cycle, Alfred Joseph is a HR shy of the cycle.

 

Colvin flies out to LF in his 5th AB in the top of the 8th.

 

In the middle of the 8th, Boise still leads 10-7.

 

Keep your eye on Joseph. He is repeating at Boise, but he is still young for the league. I think this kid could be a real find.

 

How is his defense? With his size he doesn't seem like he'd fit the typical RF mold; I'm assuming with his speed he can cover alot of ground, but how are his routes and his arm?

[ChiCubsFan]

Do you guys agree that Veal is a better prospect than Gallagher? I asked the question on BA:

 

Q: Mark from Chicago asks:

How do you rank Cubs prospects Donald Veal and Sean Gallagher. I saw Veal was on the "Just missing the cut", but Gallagher wasn't. Does that mean you rank Veal ahead of Gallagher?

 

A: John Manuel: Tie goes to the LHP; yes, I do like Veal a bit better but I would welcome more evidence in the debate.

 

 

I don't know though. I'd probably have Gallagher over Veal. Gallagher is younger and already has reached West Tenn. I don't think Veal is far behind, but I just don't see the evidence to choose Veal over Gallagher.

[texascub]

I think that at this point Gallagher is the better prospect. He's younger and he's having success at a more advanced level. Both have good FB's and some developed secondary pitches, but both have also had control problems. Veal being LH does help, but he's still not quite to Gallagher's level IMO.

[CubsWin]

Do you guys agree that Veal is a better prospect than Gallagher? I asked the question on BA:

 

Q: Mark from Chicago asks:

How do you rank Cubs prospects Donald Veal and Sean Gallagher. I saw Veal was on the "Just missing the cut", but Gallagher wasn't. Does that mean you rank Veal ahead of Gallagher?

 

A: John Manuel: Tie goes to the LHP; yes, I do like Veal a bit better but I would welcome more evidence in the debate.

 

 

I don't know though. I'd probably have Gallagher over Veal. Gallagher is younger and already has reached West Tenn. I don't think Veal is far behind, but I just don't see the evidence to choose Veal over Gallagher.

I agree with both your's and texascub's assessments. Gallagher being younger and at the higher level has to place him above Veal on a prospect list. But not by much...

[CubsWin]

... although his power hasn't come around yet, he has really been racking up the doubles over the last few games..

 

I'd been thinking the opposite, that his power has been a pleasant surprise. He's got 3 HR's already in what 80 AB? Project that to an everyday big-leaguer and your around 20. He's hit lots of doubles, like you say, especially lately. Of 24 hits, 9 have been for XBH, that's very good. His slugging is now over .500, his IsoP over .200. So I think his power has been very encouraging. If he's hitting XBH and HR's like this at age 20, who knows what he'll be able to do at age 26 and 29.

 

I'm wary that it's just a hot streak for Colvin. Hopefully he has turned the corner and is playing like the guy Wilken saw.

To say that this is just a hot streak seemingly robs it of its well-earned validity. If we are going to do that, then the least we can do is call his performance during his first 12 games just a cold streak. But there is no need to be wary of anything. Whether it is just one or not, clearly this is a hot streak for Tyler. How much of one is the question.

 

If he were to keep up the pace of his last 9 games, he would break a lot of records. Entering the July 12th game against Vancouver that started his current hot streak, Colvin was batting .174. Nine games later, he has raised his average 108 points. In those 9 games. Colvin is hitting .410 (16-for-39). He has scored 10 runs, hit 7 doubles, 2 HRs and driven in an astonishing 14 runs. In 39 at bats, he has struck out only 3 times while walking once. Projected over a 162 game season, at his current pace, Colvin would have 252 RBI. Hack who? Yeah, its safe to say this is a hot streak.

 

But as hot as he is right now, he was just as cold for the first 12 games of the season. There are a lot more reasons why someone making the switch from aluminum bats and playing his first games as a pro after signing the biggest financial contract of his life might be experiencing some distractions than why his current performance would not be indicitive of what is to come. About the only two reasons I can think of as to why his current play isn't an accurate representation of what we can expect from Tyler is that he is simply performing too well to be believed over an extended period of time, and nine games is too small of a sample size.

 

So, whereas, I readily agree that this is a hot streak, logic suggests that it is closer to what he is capable of over the long haul than the way he started this season. I could handle somewhere in the middle. A .292 average with some pop and good plate discipline would look good in the Cubs batting order right now.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I think that at this point Gallagher is the better prospect. He's younger and he's having success at a more advanced level. Both have good FB's and some developed secondary pitches, but both have also had control problems. Veal being LH does help, but he's still not quite to Gallagher's level IMO.

 

I think Gallagher should be rated higher - for the reasons you've stated - and also because, Gallagher has better control than Veal and his secondary pitches are more advanced. Veal is still pretty raw.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think that at this point Gallagher is the better prospect. He's younger and he's having success at a more advanced level. Both have good FB's and some developed secondary pitches, but both have also had control problems. Veal being LH does help, but he's still not quite to Gallagher's level IMO.

 

I think Gallagher should be rated higher - for the reasons you've stated - and also because, Gallagher has better control than Veal and his secondary pitches are more advanced. Veal is still pretty raw.

 

Maybe some like their Veal rare.

[craig]

1. Colvin was cold, now he's hot. He won't stay this hot, that's for sure. Small sampe size, so his walk rate and K rates, for example, may be pretty deceptive thus far. As may be his HR rate, etc.. Time will tell. Whenever a guy gets hot, of course I always hope he's figured something out and will stay hot forever. (Hardly ever happens). But hopefully his recent success is more representative and his early troubles were more flukey and adjustment-oriented.

 

2. Joseph lists at 5'11", but I didn't think he ran much faster than average. Doesn't walk much, but puts the bat on the ball. Sounds interesting. As a corner guy I'd like to see some power eventually, and maybe at 5'11 that isn't in the cards. Still, there are plenty of 5'11" types (or shorter) who have hit a lot of HR's. Willie Mays, Brian Giles, Kirby Puckett, Jimmy Wynn were all under 6, Aaron and Sosa both list at 6'0", and Bonds and Banks at 6'1". So it's not as if height and long-levers are really essential to hit big-league HR's. I'd also like to see Joseph take more walks, but guys who K as little as he does, while getting hits, I think are promising.

 

3. Gallagher and Veal, to me it's kind of a tossup. Both are good ones, but they seem very contrasting. Lefty righty. Bad body/scouts-don't-like verus Veal who scouts viewed as athletic/projectible/toolsy. Groundball extreme versus flyball extreme. Good control (perception, at least) vs wildman (perception, at least). Wide arsenal (fastball/cutter/two curves/change/slider) vs small arsenal (fastball/curve/change, supposedly without real control of any of them...).

 

While Gallagher seems younger, he seems way more advanced in terms of control, knowing what he can and can't do, and being able to self-manage himself within his wide variety of pitches that he tries and tinkers with. But Veal seems to have superior stuff, or else how would he be getting so many hitters out and racking up so many K's?

 

The age thing is used as an indicator for who's got more improvement ahead, either physical or skills-wise. While Gallagher is younger, I'm not sure that in terms of physical talent that he's got as much untapped potential as might Veal? I think (without much reason, perhaps) that Gallagher probably has little chance to gain any further velocity; that is Veal can get more consistent and optimum with his delivery, that he may still get a little faster more consistently?

 

Gallagher seems superior control-wise; maybe that means he's tapped his ceiling and can't get much better. Whereas wildman Veal perhaps has lots of space for improvement. On the other hand, sometimes it seems the rich get richer in terms of control. Guys who already have control seem better able to further improve their secondary pitches, while guys who are wild just stay wild? So, one view is that Gallagher is advanced, but won't improve too much. But perhaps with all the pitches he's tinkered with, and with his aptitude for figuring out how to make them work, perhaps he's got tons of improvement left ahead of him? Who knows.

 

Both seem like very interesting prospects, that's for sure.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is it just me, or has Veal not been as much of a flyball pitcher since his promotion? In fact, if I had to guess I'd say he's had more GB than FB at High A.

[Jon]

Is it just me, or has Veal not been as much of a flyball pitcher since his promotion? In fact, if I had to guess I'd say he's had more GB than FB at High A.

6/23: 7-6

6/28: 5-9

7/04: 9-6

7/10: 9-4

7/15: 6-5

7/20: 2-4

 

38-34 by my count.

 

Here are the totals post-promotion from minorleaguesplits.com through his 7/15 start:

Ground balls - 37

Line drives - 7

Fly balls - 28

 

And at Peoria:

Ground balls - 58

Line drives - 25

Fly balls - 64

 

That total is especially hurt by a 4-1-13 game against Beloit at the beginning of the season.