The Jeff Samardzija Thread

[craig]

...i dont care if you give up a groundball every time, youre going to suck.

 

I don't agree, actually. If you give up nothing but groundballs and don't walk anybody, you'll be very good even if you don't K anybody.

 

To me, I see three simple variables: walks, K's, and HR's. If you're below average for K's, but above average for walks and HR's, you can still be an average or better pitcher. And even if you're high for K's, if that's correlated with high walks and HR's (which often seems to happen), you can easily be a below average pitcher.

 

Obviously Sam's tiny sample size last summer didn't establish himself as a K guy, not as an anti-walk guy (3.6/9), or as an anti-HR guy (2 HR/30 IP), or as an extreme groundball guy (I believe 1.3 G/F?). But I am suggesting that the subjective scouting reports on the type of stuff he apparently has at present or projects to have down the road, to me it projects as a guy who's more likely to profile as a groundball/anti-K/anti-walk guy than as a K-specialist. Yes, that's projection, not based on Notre Dame or his 30 innings at Boise/Peoria.

 

I also understand the concept that if a guy's stuff is so lame or so predictable that he can never make guys swing and miss, then if they are always hitting his stuff, probably a fair share of that contact will end up over the wall. So it's perhaps less than probable that a guy with no swing-and-miss stuff will actually end up with an anti-HR profile.

 

But I think that the ability to record K's is not the end-all. It needs to be considered in the context of HR's allowed and walks allowed. And also the groundball factor. There may be as high or higher a BABIP on groundballs, but most groundball hits are singles. (Obviously the error rate is also higher for groundballs, which is not in their favor, even though the ERA doesn't reflect this.)

 

(Just a cheesy stats speculation: Suppose a pitcher pitched to contact and got nothing but groundballs. No K's, not walks, no HR's. And, he got contact so fast that he was a 9-inning complete-game type guy. Suppose he gave up a .308 BABIP, somewhat higher than league norm overall, but perhaps not above average for grounders. On an average day, he'd get 27 groundouts and allow 12 ground hits. Probably on average, 10 or those 12 would be ground singles, perhaps two down the lines for doubles. So, using that average, pitcher would have a 1.33 WHIP, allow a .308 BA, allow a .308 OBP, allow a .359 slugging, and allow a .667 OPS. That hypothetical nothing-but-groundballs hyperbole pitcher would not "suck"; he'd basically reduce the opposition to Neifi/Izturis/Macias-level of production....)

 

K's are primarily a function of:

 

a) strategy (do I nibble for the K or am I willing to throw a strike that result in anything worse than a groundball?)

 

b) breaking stuff (2-seam sinkers rarely score K's, most K's come on breaking pitches or high fastballs),

 

c) fastball (you can't get a K without getting to 2 strikes. Frequent arrival at 2-strike count requires that you have a pitch you can routinely throw for strikes and aren't afraid to throw for strikes early in count)

 

Control of both the breaking stuff and the fastball is incorporated in "b" and "c".

 

At present, I'd judge that Sam doesn't currently profile as a K-guy on the basis of both "a" and "b". I think he profiles favorably and projects favorably in terms of "c". His hard stuff seems to have the speed and movement so that he'll often be able to attack the strike zone, and could often end up with 2-strike counts.

 

I think "a" is easily adjustable. In A-ball Guzman and Z threw sinkers for groundouts. Later on they elected to pitch for K's, work longer counts, use more breaking pitches, nibble around more. I think it's very easy to adjust the strategy like that. It's just a matter of deciding or being told to do that. And of course it's interwoven with factor "b". No point in pitching for K's if you don't have a punchout pitch.

 

If Sam's breaking pitch and change improve, he'll have more "b". Wilken thinks he'll end up with a plus slider. We'll see.

 

I imagine part of the question will be how good his breaking pitch and change will need to get in order to have at least a passable K-rate. He may not need to have a Veal-esque K-rate. But I agree that he'll either need to raise it from 5/9 or else he'll need to become really anti-walk/anti-HR to be really good.

[CubinNY]

I'm with the devil, though I'm going to wait until he starts facing better competition before I make any judgments. If he does really well in AA I will be extremely happy and a little suprized.

[KingCubsFan]

I'll just say I'm not worried about his K-rates as of now because of how raw his change and slider are. If those pitches don't improve, I'll be concerned.

Not only that, but he's coming into his first spring training with a coaching staff praising throwing strikes, and he probably doesn't have a lot of baseball knowledge in terms of setting up hitters for a strikeout or developing pitch sequences. Although he's 21/22, he's still extremely raw So far, he's been able to show 1)the Cubs were right in thinking he could consistently throw hard (95+) and 2)the fact that he can throw so many strikes shows he should be able to repeat his mechanics. At this point, I think that's all we can ask for.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

There were people who were wondering whether Samardzija was really worth that $10 million the Cubs laid out to keep him away from the NFL. Well, after watching him this spring (where he had a 1.80 ERA in three appearances), one scout raved: "Best arm I've seen. Ran his fastball up there in the upper 90s, with an excellent slider. He could pitch up here quick. In fact, they had to get him back to the minor leagues to keep Lou (Piniella) from taking him north."

[RichHillIsABeast]

There were people who were wondering whether Samardzija was really worth that $10 million the Cubs laid out to keep him away from the NFL. Well, after watching him this spring (where he had a 1.80 ERA in three appearances), one scout raved: "Best arm I've seen. Ran his fastball up there in the upper 90s, with an excellent slider. He could pitch up here quick. In fact, they had to get him back to the minor leagues to keep Lou (Piniella) from taking him north."

 

Wilken = draft day god

[CubsWin]

There were people who were wondering whether Samardzija was really worth that $10 million the Cubs laid out to keep him away from the NFL. Well, after watching him this spring (where he had a 1.80 ERA in three appearances), one scout raved: "Best arm I've seen. Ran his fastball up there in the upper 90s, with an excellent slider. He could pitch up here quick. In fact, they had to get him back to the minor leagues to keep Lou (Piniella) from taking him north."

 

Wilken = draft day god

Can't wait to see what he can do with the 3rd and, what is it now, 48th(?) picks. Boy do I want Wieters. Just out of need. Samardzija and Veal (with Pawelek and Gallagher in tow) are a nice group of arms. Adding a catcher like Wieters would sure be nice. Another arm wouldn't hurt, but...

[Vinestal]

There were people who were wondering whether Samardzija was really worth that $10 million the Cubs laid out to keep him away from the NFL. Well, after watching him this spring (where he had a 1.80 ERA in three appearances), one scout raved: "Best arm I've seen. Ran his fastball up there in the upper 90s, with an excellent slider. He could pitch up here quick. In fact, they had to get him back to the minor leagues to keep Lou (Piniella) from taking him north."

 

Wilken = draft day god

Can't wait to see what he can do with the 3rd and, what is it now, 48th(?) picks. Boy do I want Wieters. Just out of need. Samardzija and Veal (with Pawelek and Gallagher in tow) are a nice group of arms. Adding a catcher like Wieters would sure be nice. Another arm wouldn't hurt, but...

 

 

 

 

Isnt there some question as to Wieters can catch at the major league level? Thats the only thing remotely negative I have heard about him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

There were people who were wondering whether Samardzija was really worth that $10 million the Cubs laid out to keep him away from the NFL. Well, after watching him this spring (where he had a 1.80 ERA in three appearances), one scout raved: "Best arm I've seen. Ran his fastball up there in the upper 90s, with an excellent slider. He could pitch up here quick. In fact, they had to get him back to the minor leagues to keep Lou (Piniella) from taking him north."

 

Wilken = draft day god

Can't wait to see what he can do with the 3rd and, what is it now, 48th(?) picks. Boy do I want Wieters. Just out of need. Samardzija and Veal (with Pawelek and Gallagher in tow) are a nice group of arms. Adding a catcher like Wieters would sure be nice. Another arm wouldn't hurt, but...

 

 

 

 

Isnt there some question as to Wieters can catch at the major league level? Thats the only thing remotely negative I have heard about him.

 

There are a few questions, but it sounds like he'll at least be good behind the plate.

[Andy]

Guzman K'd in the low 7s in A ball. Zambrano didnt K as many, 5.75 but he was 18 and didn't throw as hard as he does now. Thats a little different than Samardzija's 5.10 last season. Im not saying he cant, im just worried

<3 your avatar

[CubsWin]

There were people who were wondering whether Samardzija was really worth that $10 million the Cubs laid out to keep him away from the NFL. Well, after watching him this spring (where he had a 1.80 ERA in three appearances), one scout raved: "Best arm I've seen. Ran his fastball up there in the upper 90s, with an excellent slider. He could pitch up here quick. In fact, they had to get him back to the minor leagues to keep Lou (Piniella) from taking him north."

 

Wilken = draft day god

Can't wait to see what he can do with the 3rd and, what is it now, 48th(?) picks. Boy do I want Wieters. Just out of need. Samardzija and Veal (with Pawelek and Gallagher in tow) are a nice group of arms. Adding a catcher like Wieters would sure be nice. Another arm wouldn't hurt, but...

 

 

 

 

Isnt there some question as to Wieters can catch at the major league level? Thats the only thing remotely negative I have heard about him.

If that's the only negative, I'll take it. Defense can be improved, but good hitting catchers the likes of Wieters are rare. With Barrett's future with the team uncertain and no standout prospects in the organization at that position, Wieters would make a lot of sense with the 3rd pick.

[mg420]

There were people who were wondering whether Samardzija was really worth that $10 million the Cubs laid out to keep him away from the NFL. Well, after watching him this spring (where he had a 1.80 ERA in three appearances), one scout raved: "Best arm I've seen. Ran his fastball up there in the upper 90s, with an excellent slider. He could pitch up here quick. In fact, they had to get him back to the minor leagues to keep Lou (Piniella) from taking him north."

 

Wilken = draft day god

Can't wait to see what he can do with the 3rd and, what is it now, 48th(?) picks. Boy do I want Wieters. Just out of need. Samardzija and Veal (with Pawelek and Gallagher in tow) are a nice group of arms. Adding a catcher like Wieters would sure be nice. Another arm wouldn't hurt, but...

 

 

 

 

Isnt there some question as to Wieters can catch at the major league level? Thats the only thing remotely negative I have heard about him.

If that's the only negative, I'll take it. Defense can be improved, but good hitting catchers the likes of Wieters are rare. With Barrett's future with the team uncertain and no standout prospects in the organization at that position, Wieters would make a lot of sense with the 3rd pick.

 

 

if fox can get on track and be an average defender i think with his bat he might be considered a standout prospect. chris robinson had a great 45 ab's in daytona and is a very good defender and might also qualify if he can keep up his hot hitting.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Before today’s game at HoHoKam Park, I had the opportunity to watch Jeff Samardzija pitch again in a minor league game at Fitch Park (the minor leaguers started an hour early today). In the two innings I saw The Shark throw, he gave up two hits, two runs (both earned), and three walks, with no K. He threw 15 pitches in the 1st inning, and 29 pitches in his 2nd inning of work. Of his six “outs,” two were CS by catcher Jake Muyco (who has THE best arm among Cubs catchers), and the other four were fly balls. NO GROUND BALLS! Most all of his pitches were up in the strike zone. After his second inning of work, he was met at the dugout by Daytona pitching coach Rich Bombard and catcher Jake Muyco, and they had a long discussion. Then I had to leave to get to HoHoKam, so I don’t know how Samardizija’s day turned out, but if nothing else, the first two innings must have been an excellent learning experience for him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

There were people who were wondering whether Samardzija was really worth that $10 million the Cubs laid out to keep him away from the NFL. Well, after watching him this spring (where he had a 1.80 ERA in three appearances), one scout raved: "Best arm I've seen. Ran his fastball up there in the upper 90s, with an excellent slider. He could pitch up here quick. In fact, they had to get him back to the minor leagues to keep Lou (Piniella) from taking him north."

 

Wilken = draft day god

Can't wait to see what he can do with the 3rd and, what is it now, 48th(?) picks. Boy do I want Wieters. Just out of need. Samardzija and Veal (with Pawelek and Gallagher in tow) are a nice group of arms. Adding a catcher like Wieters would sure be nice. Another arm wouldn't hurt, but...

 

 

 

 

Isnt there some question as to Wieters can catch at the major league level? Thats the only thing remotely negative I have heard about him.

If that's the only negative, I'll take it. Defense can be improved, but good hitting catchers the likes of Wieters are rare. With Barrett's future with the team uncertain and no standout prospects in the organization at that position, Wieters would make a lot of sense with the 3rd pick.

 

 

if fox can get on track and be an average defender i think with his bat he might be considered a standout prospect. chris robinson had a great 45 ab's in daytona and is a very good defender and might also qualify if he can keep up his hot hitting.

 

But as it stands, neither are anywhere near standout prospects and are never likely to hit that level.

[Vinestal]

There were people who were wondering whether Samardzija was really worth that $10 million the Cubs laid out to keep him away from the NFL. Well, after watching him this spring (where he had a 1.80 ERA in three appearances), one scout raved: "Best arm I've seen. Ran his fastball up there in the upper 90s, with an excellent slider. He could pitch up here quick. In fact, they had to get him back to the minor leagues to keep Lou (Piniella) from taking him north."

 

Wilken = draft day god

Can't wait to see what he can do with the 3rd and, what is it now, 48th(?) picks. Boy do I want Wieters. Just out of need. Samardzija and Veal (with Pawelek and Gallagher in tow) are a nice group of arms. Adding a catcher like Wieters would sure be nice. Another arm wouldn't hurt, but...

 

 

 

 

Isnt there some question as to Wieters can catch at the major league level? Thats the only thing remotely negative I have heard about him.

 

There are a few questions, but it sounds like he'll at least be good behind the plate.

 

Well at least he's a polished college hitter and not a highschool kid. Our highscool position picks never seen to pan out.

[98navigator]

Suntimes

 

GOOD FUTURE: Stark won't forget Samardzija

Stark reality has hit Cubs pitching prospect Jeff Samardzija.

 

Jayson Stark reality.

 

Former Notre Dame wide receiver Samardzija, who will start his first pro baseball season in the minor leagues, was among the ''five young players to remember,'' the ESPN.com scribe noted.

 

Others: Astros outfielder Hunter Pence, Tigers outfielder Cameron Maybin, Devil Rays third baseman Evan (no, not Eva) Longoria and Mariners right-hander Brandon Morrow.

 

''There were people who were wondering whether Samardzija was really worth that $10 million the Cubs laid out to keep him away from the NFL,'' Stark wrote.

 

''Well, after watching him this spring [where he had a 1.80 ERA in three appearances], one scout raved: 'Best arm I've seen. Ran his fastball up there in the upper 90s, with an excellent slider. He could pitch up here quick. In fact, they had to get him back to the minor leagues to keep Lou [Piniella] from taking him north.'''

[Laura]

No surprise, but Daytona formally announced that Samardzija will be starting the season in Daytona.

 

Samardzija spent much of Spring Training in the Major League camp, which included a face-to-face performance with San Francisco Giants slugger Barry Bonds.

[RichHillIsABeast]

No surprise, but Daytona formally announced that Samardzija will be starting the season in Daytona.

 

Samardzija spent much of Spring Training in the Major League camp, which included a face-to-face performance with San Francisco Giants slugger Barry Bonds.

 

A+ for Samardzija. 8-)

[CUBZ99]

I like how they word the press release. "Will be starting the season" in Daytona sure sounds like they don't expect him to be there all year. I'm pretty excited over Shark's potential.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Jim H (Chicago): is Samardzija a 1-2 pitcher long term? or more of a 3-4?

 

Jim Callis: Samardzija is the prospect I'm most interested to see how he fares this year. We just don't know . . . he could be spectacular quick or he could be a $10 million enigma. The Cubs believe he'll make rapid adjustments now that he's full-time devoted to baseball, and they think he'll be a No. 1 or 2. I can see that upside, but want to see some progress before I make that leap of faith.

 

Bruce (Tucson, AZ): Smardzija = Chad Hutchinson 95 MPH doesn't make someone a good pitcher. Someone throwing 95 in the Big East should at least be able to strike some hitters out, even without an offspeed pitch.

 

Jim Callis: I know what you're saying, and it's a valid point. I have the same concern. But this guy's makeup is better and he's a much better competitor than Hutchinson, and he's made a lot of progress with a slider. I never bought into Hutchinson, but I can see the light with Samardzija. As I said, can't wait to see what he does this year.

 

Kevin (Manassas): Jim, tell Bruce he is crazy, and that Samardzija will be a very good pitcher. the guy was playing major college football, you can't expect him to be polished after playing part time.

 

Jim Callis: And there's the other side of the argument. Really, both sides have valid points, which is what makes Samardzija so interesting to me. Talking to other clubs, the reaction is always the same: "We liked his arm a lot . . . Don't think I would have gone to $10 million though . . . But it's also hard to argue with Tim Wilken's track record." Uncanny how almost everyone says the same thing.

[CubinNY]

Jim H (Chicago): is Samardzija a 1-2 pitcher long term? or more of a 3-4?

 

Jim Callis: Samardzija is the prospect I'm most interested to see how he fares this year. We just don't know . . . he could be spectacular quick or he could be a $10 million enigma. The Cubs believe he'll make rapid adjustments now that he's full-time devoted to baseball, and they think he'll be a No. 1 or 2. I can see that upside, but want to see some progress before I make that leap of faith.

 

Bruce (Tucson, AZ): Smardzija = Chad Hutchinson 95 MPH doesn't make someone a good pitcher. Someone throwing 95 in the Big East should at least be able to strike some hitters out, even without an offspeed pitch.

 

Jim Callis: I know what you're saying, and it's a valid point. I have the same concern. But this guy's makeup is better and he's a much better competitor than Hutchinson, and he's made a lot of progress with a slider. I never bought into Hutchinson, but I can see the light with Samardzija. As I said, can't wait to see what he does this year.

 

Kevin (Manassas): Jim, tell Bruce he is crazy, and that Samardzija will be a very good pitcher. the guy was playing major college football, you can't expect him to be polished after playing part time.

 

Jim Callis: And there's the other side of the argument. Really, both sides have valid points, which is what makes Samardzija so interesting to me. Talking to other clubs, the reaction is always the same: "We liked his arm a lot . . . Don't think I would have gone to $10 million though . . . But it's also hard to argue with Tim Wilken's track record." Uncanny how almost everyone says the same thing.

This will be a big year for Samardzija. He's not exactly a young guy. I can't say I'm a believer. I want to see how he does.

[98navigator]

Jeff

[Brian]

Thanks for the link, looks like he'll be doing a blog. Sounds like he's like the minor league life so far.

[CubinNY]

Jeff

hahaha

 

The eyes, the eyes, I'm hypnotized.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA Prospect Blog[/url]"]By Sean Kernan

VIERA, Fla.–Jeff Samardzija might hear the same play list in stadiums he visits around the Florida State League as he heard Friday night at Space Coast Stadium.

 

But that’s OK with the former two-sport standout at Notre Dame as long as he pitches similar to his five-inning effort in his FSL debut against Brevard County.

 

Samardzija didn’t get distracted by the fight songs of USC, Michigan and LSU–the three teams that beat Notre Dame in his senior season as a Fighting Irish wide receiver—before he started each inning. But he just kept throwing his fastball, sinker and slider while scattering five singles, walking one and striking out a batter.

 

...

 

Samardzija settled for a no-decision in the 3-2 Manatees victory in 11 innings. He threw 75 pitches, 51 for strikes, and his fastball topped out at 94 mph. But it was his sinker that kept Manatees batters from making solid contact.

 

“The sinker was moving,’’ Samardzija said. “I got it up in the 90s, and turned it into a couple of double plays. I had numerous groundball outs. It felt good out there.’’

 

Cubs farm director Oneri Fleita observed the game and liked what he saw. “His sinkers looked like they dropped a foot,” Fleita said. “When he commands it like he did tonight, fills up the strike zone with strikes, he’s tough to hit. There’s a lot of positives that will come out from tonight and that’s why he’s here. All in all it was a great outing for him. He was focused, poised, and made good pitches. He looks like he’s been doing this a long time.”

 

Brevard County’s Nestor Corredor’s two-out infield hit to third and a throwing error by Daytona’s Kyle Reynolds in the fifth inning allowed Carlos Corporan to score and tie the game at 1-1, resulting in a no-decision for the 2006 fifth-round draft choice. However, Samardzija took the blame because Corporan reached base on the only walk he issued and went to second on a wild pitch.

 

“If there was any one thing that I could take back it was that walk,” Samardzija said. “(Corporan) battled me to 3-2 and I threw a high outside fastball and just missed. You know, you just get a feeling that was going to come back and get you.”

[Laura]

BP Future Shock (Kevin Goldstein) on Samardzija:

 

After signing a historic contract prior to the season, Samardzija made his highly-anticipated season debut on Friday night in the Florida State League. On the surface, the one run allowed in five innings is solid, but the peripherals fail to thrill, with five hits allowed and just one strikeout. I've been highly critical of the bonus handed out to a player who many saw as a late first-round pick on pure baseball talent, and despite some scouting hype of late, I remained unimpressed. He reportedly hit 99 in college, and was consistently in the high 90s this spring, yet in this start he sat at 90-92 mph, hitting 94 on occasion, while rarely showing an average slider, and throwing a rudimentary changeup. I could be totally missing the boat here, but I still don't get the excitement.