Explain this to me...

[cubfan1955]

Is Dusty putting on a clinic on the most efficient way to killl a promising inning?

 

Friday night, 7-7-06 game in Milwaukee...

 

Top of the 4th inning, first two batters in the inning walked (that's a miracle in itself). Jones comes up and tries a sac bunt that fails and of course then the inning goes to crap and we don't score. Why would you try a sac bunt in that situation when you have one of the better hitters on the team up and it was only the 4th inning and you are clinging to a 1-0 lead?

 

Turns out the Cubs won anyway but at the time I would have liked to have climbed through the TV and strangeled Dusty Baker! :evil:

[Irrelevant Dude]

Honestly I would have bunted there too.

[cubfan1955]

Honestly I would have bunted there too.

Okay...crosses Jody, Jody Davis off the Cubs new manager short list. :lol:

 

Seriously, I could have understood it if Neifi were batting or if it had been the 8th inning or so. Not the 4th inning with Jones batting though.

[cheapseats]

Honestly I would have bunted there too.

 

Unfortunately, I'll have to cross you off my list of those I'd like to replace Dusty, then. :twisted:

[FergieJ31]

I'd also probably bunt with JJ in that situation, mostly because he was facing a lefty. Also Z was dealing - if it were almost anyone else you play for a big inning.

 

All in all it's not a ridiculous move, certainly not compared to other Dusty head-scratchers.

[3finger]

Guess I'm still in the post-Dusty sweepstakes. No way I put the bunt on that situation. The Cubs lineup makes way too many outs already -- why just give an AB away that early in the game?

[Outshined_One]

I wouldn't have had Jones against a lefty starting to begin with.

[mul21]

I wouldn't have had Jones against a lefty starting to begin with.

 

And we have a winner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[PrimeTime]

Id rather have him swinging since the guy is on fire...Id rather have Arameiz Rameriz bunting than jones, every time aramis swings away he hit sinto a double play or ruins it somehow

[cubfan1955]

Id rather have him swinging since the guy is on fire...Id rather have Arameiz Rameriz bunting than jones, every time aramis swings away he hit sinto a double play or ruins it somehow

That was my thinking too. If it were the Jones from the first month and a half have him bunt but the Jones from the past month plus should have been swinging away. Also Murton and Cedeno were the two hitters following Jones that Dusty was banking on driving in the runs and that is a pretty bad option these days.

[soccer10k]

I wouldn't have had Jones against a lefty starting to begin with.

 

Agreed. This is the right answer.

 

But assuming Jones is in the lineup anyway, there is no reason to be bunting in the fourth inning with anybody other than the pitcher. You have over half the game left. Just let Jacque swing away especially since he has a hot bat.

[biittner77]

Having your #6 hitter bunt so that your #7 & #8 hitters can try to drive them in is never a good idea.

[Balsa]

Having your #6 hitter bunt so that your #7 & #8 hitters can try to drive them in is never a good idea.

On the contrary it's a great idea. Knowing that the 7-8 hitters can't hit a homerun or triple means that you need the runners in scoring position for them to drive them in.

 

Hence, a long single will score both instead of maybe scoring one. Especially if your #6 hitter is horribly weak against LHP....

[FergieJ31]

Yeah I just don't see how it's a slam dunk decision either way - bunt or swing away. I still think Dusty made the right call.

 

I agree with the modern sabr notion that the sac bunt tends to be overused, but I believe it's a situational thing - not a one size fits all.

 

The "give away an out" argument doesn't hold water when you consider that batting from the left side and with decent speed, against an infield that wasn't playing the bunt (I believe the infield was at double-play depth), I'd say JJ had a 15% chance at a bunt single. His OBP vs lefties this year is .225, so only a marginal amount of offense was sacrificed.

 

Also Murton was up next, OBP vs lefties this year is over 400.

[Peoriaman]

I would have bunted htere also.

 

I know everybody hates Dusty, but let's not make stuff up to hate him for...

[CuseCubFan69]

The solution is simple. Jones shouldn't have started in the first place against a lefty.

[soccer10k]

Yeah I just don't see how it's a slam dunk decision either way - bunt or swing away. I still think Dusty made the right call.

 

I agree with the modern sabr notion that the sac bunt tends to be overused, but I believe it's a situational thing - not a one size fits all.

 

The "give away an out" argument doesn't hold water when you consider that batting from the left side and with decent speed, against an infield that wasn't playing the bunt (I believe the infield was at double-play depth), I'd say JJ had a 15% chance at a bunt single. His OBP vs lefties this year is .225, so only a marginal amount of offense was sacrificed.

 

Also Murton was up next, OBP vs lefties this year is over 400.

 

It is a situational thing. The situation is that it was the fourth inning. No reason to be bunting in the fourth inning. None at all. And you have the lead too. Just let them hit.

[FergieJ31]

It is a situational thing. The situation is that it was the fourth inning. No reason to be bunting in the fourth inning. None at all. And you have the lead too. Just let them hit.

Yes it was the 4th inning - that is one reason to swing away - but there were at least two good reasons TO bunt:

 

* MM vs JJ splits against lefties

* Z on the hill for the Cubs meant it was probably going to be a low-scoring game.

 

I have no problem with a manager who maximizes the probability of scoring at least one run in that situation (note the Cubs had scored just 2 runs in the previous 22 innings). But if he let JJ swing away I wouldn't have exactly screamed at the TV either.

 

That was really my point: the call could have gone either way. Dusty gets a lot of heat on this board but bunting in that situation is entirely defensible (even in this thread the consensus is split).