6/17 Detroit Tigers (Verlander) @ Cobs (MARMOL!) 4:05 PM CSN

Jazz · June 17, 2006

It's the "Watch a Major League team fall flat on their face" show, starring

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/2005/06/27/BGBoMCRL.jpg

Justin Verlander - 7-4, 3.32 era

and

http://www.daytonacubs.com/news/files/683-376.jpg

El Salvador, 1-0, 0.90 era

UMFan83 · June 17, 2006

In order to save time, the MLB already decided the final of this one. Cubs lose 11-3**

** - Marmol throws 8 2/3 perfect innings before a random pitching change to Novoa who gives up 11 runs in a row.

Mark_R · June 17, 2006

I'll be shocked if we get three off Verlander, Zumaya, Rodney, and Jones.

Nonetheless, this is a contest I'd love to see.

stupid work.

E.J. · June 17, 2006

Figures. I had tickets to this game, but I gave them away. Of course it turns out that Verlander and Marmol are going. Cubs lose 1-0. Marmol pitches lights out, but the Cubs lose when Howry gives up a single in the 8th.

Flames24Rulz · June 17, 2006

Watching Verlander and Marmol square off would be fun.

Problem is not many people are going to be watching.

Andy · June 17, 2006

When I get back from work, I'll come back and watch Marmol pitch on tape. Fun.

Transmogrified Tiger · June 17, 2006

How is this game being televised on CSN? Doesn't the blackout/Fox rights go until 6 EST or something like that?

Flames24Rulz · June 17, 2006

How is this game being televised on CSN? Doesn't the blackout/Fox rights go until 6 EST or something like that?

No, I think it goes to 3 central because I remember the Cubs playing the Giants at Wrigley a few years ago on a Saturday afternoon.

Fred Hornkohl · June 17, 2006

Worthless stats of the day for Saturday.......

CUBS are 3-7 on Saturdays

CUBS are 0-1 vs. Detroit

CUBS are 1-3 vs. the ALC Division

CUBS are 1-2 when they've lost their last 4 game(s) in a row

CUBS are 13-24 when they've lost their previous game

CUBS are 16-10 when CSN broadcasts the game

CUBS are 11-24 in day games

CUBS are 12-18 at home

CUBS are 7-19 when the temperature is 70 degrees or above

CUBS are 23-8 when they score at least 4 runs.... 3-32 when they don't

CUBS are 18-8 when they allow fewer than 4 runs.... 8-32 when they don't

CUBS are 21-8 when they outhit the opponents.... 3-27 when they get outhit.... and 1-5 when the hits are even

CUBS are 12-10 when their pitcher gets a hit.... 14-30 when he doesn't

CUBS are 11-7 when Pierre steals a base.... 15-33 when he dosen't

CUBS are 22-19 when they don't allow any runs is the first inning.... 4-21 when they do

CUBS are 5-13 in one run games.... 2-4 in two run games

CUBS are 25-23 when their pitchers average 18 pitches per inning or less..... 1-17 when they don't

CUBS are 19-11 when the opponent's starter pitches 6-1/3 inning or less.... 7-29 when he doesn't

CUBS are on a pace to win 64 games this year..... compared to 79 last year

CUBS are on a pace to score 641 runs this year..... compared to 703 last year

CUBS are on a pace to hit 130 home runs this year..... compared to 194 last year

CUBS are on a pace to draw 390 walks this year..... compared to 419 last year

CUBS are on a pace to ground into 164 double plays this year..... compared to 129 last year

CUBS are scoring 3.95 runs per game compared to 4.34 last year

CUBS are seeing 3.62 pitches per plate appearance compared to 3.61 last year

CUBS are drving in 19.0% of their runners on base compared to 18.4% last year

CUBS are scoring 0.347 runs per baserunner compared to 0.365 last year

CUBS are extra base hit ratio is 29.0% compared to 35.8% last year

CUBS have 3 errors in their last 11 games

CUBS have 9 home runs in their last 10 games

CUBS have drawn 6 BBs in their last 5 games..... 20 BBs in their last 11 games

CUBS are 1-0 when Marmol starts

Marmol is 1 of 1 in quality starts

Marmol's ERA pitching to Barrett is 1.50 ... Marmol hasn't pitched to Blanco

CUBS score 3.95 R/G overall.... 9.00 R/G when Marmol pitches

CUBS hit 0.80 HR/G overall.... 3.00 HR/G when Marmol pitches

CUBS' offensive support of Marmol.....

04/03 - 06/16      AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
CUBS w/Marmol      39    9   12    1    0    3   22    9    1    6  0.308  0.317  0.564  0.881
CUBS overall     2211  258  570   95   18   51  854  241  157  335  0.258  0.309  0.386  0.696

Marmol's previous starts (1-0).....

Marmol                  IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
06/11  vs. Cincy       6.0    2    1    1    3    7    1    99  4.50 10.50  1.50  0.83  1.50

CUBS' bullpen usage for the last week......

              Fri        Thu        Wed        Tue        Mon        Sun        Sat           Totals
             16 Jun     15 Jun     14 Jun     13 Jun     12 Jun     11 Jun     10 Jun
             vs Detr    vs Houst   vs Houst   vs Houst   no game    at Cincy   at Cincy
pitcher        IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit        IP Pit

Dempster                            1.0  11                                     1.0  17       2.0  28
Eyre                     0.7  21                                     1.0  25                  1.7  46
Howry                    1.0  29    1.0  15                                     0.3  11       2.3  55
Ohman         0.7  19                          1.0  16               0.3   5                  2.0  40
Novoa         0.3   2    0.3   1               1.0  15               1.0  12                  2.7  30
Aardsma       1.0  18                          1.0  15               0.7  26                  2.7  59
Guzman        5.3  96                          2.0  31                                        7.3 127
Rusch         1.7  54                                                                         1.7  54

Totals        9.0 189    2.0  51    2.0  26    5.0  77               3.0  68    1.3  28      22.3 439

CUBS' season series vs. Detroit (0-0).......

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter
66  Fri 06/16    Detroit           3- 5  Rusch        
67  Sat 06/17    Detroit            -    Marmol        
68  Sun 06/18    Detroit            -    Marshall

CUBS' hitters during the last 7 games......

06/09 - 06/16      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
Blanco              7    2    5    1    0    1    9    5    0    0  0.714  0.714  1.286  2.000
Nevin              21    3    8    2    0    2   16    4    2    4  0.381  0.435  0.762  1.197
Barrett            20    3    8    1    0    1   12    5    2    2  0.400  0.435  0.600  1.035
Ramirez            24    2    8    3    0    1   14    4    1    2  0.333  0.385  0.583  0.968
Bynum               9    0    3    0    1    0    5    0    1    2  0.333  0.400  0.556  0.956
Perez              15    3    5    1    0    1    9    3    0    2  0.333  0.313  0.600  0.913
Cedeno             22    4    6    0    1    1   11    3    1    3  0.273  0.304  0.500  0.804
Mabry               4    1    1    1    0    0    2    0    0    1  0.250  0.250  0.500  0.750
Pierre             30    3    9    1    0    0   10    2    1    2  0.300  0.344  0.333  0.677
Jones              28    4    5    1    0    1    9    2    0   11  0.179  0.172  0.321  0.494
Walker             22    2    4    1    0    0    5    1    2    2  0.182  0.250  0.227  0.477
Murton             22    2    4    0    0    0    4    0    2    2  0.182  0.250  0.182  0.432
Womack              8    1    1    0    0    0    1    0    1    1  0.125  0.222  0.125  0.347

7 game totals     245   30   69   12    2    8  109   30   14   40  0.282  0.322  0.445  0.767

season totals    2242  261  576   92   18   53  863  243  159  337  0.257  0.309  0.385  0.694

CUBS' pitchers during the last 7 games......

06/09 - 06/16        IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
Novoa               2.7    1    0    0    0    1    0    30  0.00  3.38  0.00  0.38  0.00
Zambrano           14.7    9    2    2    8    9    1   233  4.91  5.52  0.61  1.16  1.23
Marmol              6.0    2    1    1    3    7    1    99  4.50 10.50  1.50  0.83  1.50
Howry               4.0    4    2    1    1    6    0    78  2.25 13.50  0.00  1.25  2.25
Guzman              7.3    4    2    2    4    9    0   127  4.91 11.05  0.00  1.09  2.45
Aardsma             2.7    1    1    1    1    2    1    59  3.38  6.75  3.38  0.75  3.38
Maddux             12.3   15    7    7    0    3    2   156  0.00  2.19  1.46  1.22  5.11
Dempster            3.0    3    2    2    3    2    0    63  9.00  6.00  0.00  2.00  6.00
Eyre                2.7    5    3    3    3    1    1    72 10.13  3.38  3.38  3.00 10.13
Marshall            4.0    7    5    5    4    1    1    88  9.00  2.25  2.25  2.75 11.25
Ohman               2.0    4    3    3    1    0    0    40  4.50  0.00  0.00  2.50 13.50
Rusch               1.7    6    4    4    0    2    1    54  0.00 10.80  5.40  3.60 21.60

7 game totals      63.0   61   32   31   28   43    8  1099  4.00  6.14  1.14  1.41  4.43

season totals     583.7  543  325  302  284  490   81  9938  4.38  7.56  1.25  1.42  4.66

Percentage of baserunners driven in

04/03 - 06/16      BDI  LOB   RBI%
Restovich            1    2  0.333
Lee                  7   17  0.292
Walker              26   67  0.280
Blanco               7   21  0.250
Barrett             22   70  0.239
Perez               13   43  0.232
Jones               22   83  0.210
Ramirez             25   96  0.207
Nevin                3   12  0.200
Cedeno              17   83  0.170
Murton              16   86  0.157
Bynum                4   25  0.138
Hairston             4   27  0.129
Pagan                1    8  0.111
Pierre               7   69  0.092
Mabry                3   30  0.091
Womack               1   13  0.071
Theriot              0    2  0.000

CUBS               190  811  0.190

Go CUBS !!

Outshined_One · June 17, 2006

Percentage of baserunners driven in

04/03 - 06/16      BDI  LOB   RBI%
Restovich            1    2  0.333
Lee                  7   17  0.292
Walker              26   67  0.280
Blanco               7   21  0.250
Barrett             22   70  0.239
Perez               13   43  0.232
Jones               22   83  0.210
Ramirez             25   96  0.207
Nevin                3   12  0.200
Cedeno              17   83  0.170
Murton              16   86  0.157
Bynum                4   25  0.138
Hairston             4   27  0.129
Pagan                1    8  0.111
Pierre               7   69  0.092
Mabry                3   30  0.091
Womack               1   13  0.071
Theriot              0    2  0.000

CUBS               190  811  0.190

Walker is so unclutch.

Transmogrified Tiger · June 17, 2006

Barrett too

Fred Hornkohl · June 17, 2006

Barrett too

Don't forget the guy right behind Barrett, eh?

Fred Hornkohl · June 17, 2006

Walker is so unclutch.

Walker's got great numbers for the season..... but what has he done for you lately ???

06/09 - 06/16      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
Walker             22    2    4    1    0    0    5    1    2    2  0.182  0.250  0.227  0.477

06/09 - 06/16      BDI  LOB   RBI%
Walker               1   11  0.083

I might almost be inclined to sit him for a game or two.

Nah !! Better not.

beersoakedivy · June 17, 2006

Let's start a two or three game winning steak today...and then in typical CUBS fashion immediately proceed to lose six to eight in a row there after.

Derwood · June 17, 2006

Len and Bob told me Verlander throws hard.

About 1000 times!

UMFan83 · June 17, 2006

Len and Bob told me Verlander throws hard.

About 1000 times!

Ron and Pat did too. I'm expecting him to go out and throw 110 MPH the way they were hyping him up

Shavo · June 17, 2006

Len and Bob told me Verlander throws hard.

About 1000 times!

Ron and Pat did too. I'm expecting him to go out and throw 110 MPH the way they were hyping him up

Expect 95 to 98 heat from Verlander. And a wicked curve.

Jim Ignatowski · June 17, 2006

Fred, two questions.

The Cardinals have the following pre/post Pujols injury stats:

pre-injury (thru jun 3)

won-loss: 34-21 (.618)

runs per game: 5.02

runs created/27 outs: 4.93

homers/27 outs: 1.02

avg: .275

obp: .351

slg: .423

post-injury (since jun 3)

won-loss: 6-5 (.500)

runs per game: 5.73

runs created/27 outs: 5.45

homers/27 outs: 0.75

avg: .303

obp: .361

slg: .447

Have you looked at anything like this for the Cubs/Lee?

Second, what do you think about using a RBI Percentage Chart such as developed by Baseball Musings? I like it to some extent, but think you must back out IBBs and probably should back out all walks and HBPs.

Thanks for your thoughts, you do a tremendous job!

Fred Hornkohl · June 17, 2006

Fred, two questions.

The Cardinals have the following pre/post Pujols injury stats:

pre-injury (thru jun 3)
won-loss: 34-21 (.618)
runs per game: 5.02
runs created/27 outs: 4.93
homers/27 outs: 1.02
avg: .275
obp: .351
slg: .423

post-injury (since jun 3)
won-loss: 6-5 (.500)
runs per game: 5.73
runs created/27 outs: 5.45
homers/27 outs: 0.75
avg: .303
obp: .361
slg: .447

Have you looked at anything like this for the Cubs/Lee?

Second, what do you think about using a RBI Percentage Chart such as developed by Baseball Musings? I like it to some extent, but think you must back out IBBs and probably should back out all walks and HBPs.

Thanks for your thoughts, you do a tremendous job!

First off, thanx for your kind words.

I really wasn't aware of the discrepency in the Cardinals production since Pujols went down, until you posted it here. Wow !! Talk about the team stepping it up !! It boggles the mind. I don't know what to attribute it to.... magic pixie dust ?? I don't know. With respect to the CUBS and Derrek Lee, what I found most interesting was that the team played really well for a week after Lee's injury, then went down the tubes. For a while, I was posting a daily recap of how bad they've been in with the "Worthless Stats of the Day" bit, but I got tired of that when they started to play better for a while. At any rate..... since the CUBS "died" on 26 April (a week after Lee went down), here's what the splits look like.....

CUBS               AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
04/03 - 04/25     630   96  165   30    5   18  259   88   51  107  0.262  0.317  0.411  0.728
04/26 - 06/16    1612  165  411   66   13   35  608  156  108  232  0.255  0.305  0.377  0.683

CUBS                 IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
04/03 - 04/25     166.7  130   78   71   78  134   24  4.21  7.24  1.30  1.25  3.83
04/26 - 06/16     417.0  413  247  231  207  355   57  4.47  7.66  1.23  1.49  4.99

We went from......

12-7 (.632)

RBI% = 24.1%

Runs per baserunner = .440

Runs per game = 5.05

Pitches per plate appearance = 3.73

Extra base hit % = 32.1%

Walks drawn per game = 2.68

.... to these numbers.....

14-33 (.298)

RBI% = 17.0%

Runs per baserunner = .309

Runs per game = 3.51

Pitches per plate appearance = 3.58

Extra base hit % = 27.7%

Walks drawn per game = 2.30

I don't know how to explain it all. There's certainly a whole lot more going on here besides the loss of Derrek Lee. My opinion is that the decline in pitching has hurt us a whole lot worse than missing Derrek, and the numbers our offense was putting up in April were just not sustainable, even with Derrek Lee.

RBI% is an idea whose time has come. RBI as a counting stat doesn't really tell you how good a player is at driving in runs. The discussions we've had here about Derrek Lee and RBI totals from last year are ample evidence of that. I'm surprised Branch Rickey didn't come up with this idea 60 years ago. (Maybe he did, and nobody picked up on it... I really don't know for sure).

Pinto, in Baseball Musings, is using actual runners on base data that he gets from an outside source. I've chosen to use the proxy variable RBI - HR + LOB for baserunners. My choice was more problematic that idealogical, in that I can get LOB from the daily boxscore, so I don't need to go to another source. It can be argued that using actual baserunners is more accurate, and certainly, that is so. There is, however, an inherent penalty with this method for the batter who gets a hit (or BB, IBB, or HBP) that does not drive in the runner. The runner(s) was on base, and you didn't drive him in, so it costs you in the rating. On the other hand, using the proxy variable with LOB totals, this penalty doesn't exist, since you are not charged with a LOB if you get on base yourself without scoring other baserunner(s).

I think I like my method better for the very reasons you brought up, even though I chose it simply for my convenience. In any case, my percentages will be much higher than what Pinto comes up with, up and down the lineup, but the real difference will be with hitters like a Barry Bonds who gets walked a lot when there are runners on base. He will look far better when compared to other hitters with my calculation than with Pinto's. The downside to my method is that it only provides comparability for and with players on the CUBS roster..... since I'm not about to start compiling data for the whole league, and I am not aware of anyone that publishes ongoing LOB totals. Oh well.... in my own little world, it works pretty good.

Thanx again for the kind words. !!

E.J. · June 17, 2006

Watching the Braves and Red Sox on Fox right now. They just interviewed Terry Francona and asked him why he likes Kevin Youkilis in the leadoff spot. Francona's response:

"He's not the prototypical leadoff man, but he just knows how to get on base."

Wish we had a coach who understood that concept.

Balsa · June 17, 2006

I will watch this game not because I expect the Cubs to win, but because I'm excited about watching these pitching prospects.

ltb · June 17, 2006

Ron and Pat did too. I'm expecting him to go out and throw 110 MPH the way they were hyping him up

verlander is worthy of the hype.

E.J. · June 17, 2006

I live in the Detroit area, so I watch a lot of Tiger's games. Verlander is definitely worthy of the hype. Kid's a stud.

E.J. · June 17, 2006

C. Granderson cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .287

P. Polanco 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .284

I. Rodriguez c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .306

M. Ordonez rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .303

C. Guillen ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .284

M. Thames lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .308

C. Shelton 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .278

B. Inge 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .222

J. Verlander p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000

Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chi Cubs

AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg

J. Pierre cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .243

T. Walker 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .294

A. Ramirez 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .248

P. Nevin 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .312

J. Jones rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .286

J. Mabry lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .216

R. Cedeno ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .291

H. Blanco c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .173

C. Marmol p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000

Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fred Hornkohl · June 17, 2006

Lineups........

Granderson, cf

Polanco, 2b

Rodriguez, c

Ordonez, rf

Guillen, ss

Thames, lf

Shelton, 1b

Inge, 3b

Verlander, p

Pierre, cf

Walker, 2b

Ramirez, 3b

Nevin, 1b

Jones, rf

Mabry, lf

Cedeno, ss

Blanco, c

Marmol, p

Edited June 17, 2006 by Fred Hornkohl

6/17 Detroit Tigers (Verlander) @ Cobs (MARMOL!) 4:05 PM CSN

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