Trading Deadline Strategy

[Transmogrified Tiger]

For further proof that a players numbers suffer playing at Petco, see:

 

Cameron, Mike

Castilla, Vinny

Piazza, Mike

 

(Actually, Mike's numbers look about the same over the last several years, until you look at his home and away splits.

 

Look up anybody. Play at Petco and your offensive numbers will suffer.

 

Even Chan Ho Park can pitch well there.

 

Giles still isn't hitting for a lot of power even away from Petco, only an .852 OPS.

[TXCubsFan]

Hardly worth $10-11 million per year for three years at his age.

 

I suppose that depends on what his .850 OPS would translate to hitting in the NL Central regulary might do.

 

Giles made his bed, he's gotta lie in it. Personally, I think he was a fool for going back to San Diego.

 

But, the bigger fool was Hendry for not courting Giles the way he courted Furcal.

 

For what he spent on Neifi, Rusch and Jones, he could have had Giles. Thank heaven we have Neifi. :roll:

 

Pardon me, but all the pining for Giles on this board reminds me of a guy who still is in love with his college girlfriend who broke up with him, wishing she'd see the light and return to him, after she has married another man and had a couple of kids.

Edited June 14, 2006 by TXCubsFan

[Geech]

Pardon me, but all the pining for Giles on this board reminds me of a guy who still is in love with his college girlfriend who broke up with him, wishing she'd see the light and return tohim, after she has married another man and had a couple of kids.

 

Cute response, but you're the one that brought him up.

[BigbadB]

If Corey had decided to grow up a season earlier, then getting Jacque wouldn't have been such a necessity.

 

Do you really think that Corey magically grew up in one offseason?

 

He's a completely different player out there this year. It could be that he transformed into a good player in one offseason, but my personal opinion is that the Cubs coaches messed him up so bad, he couldn't get anything going here.

 

Hopefully, he will give some details as to why he's turned things around so well. I'd love to hear him say that the Cubs coaching staff is clueless. It would answer a lot of my questions.

[BigbadB]

Pardon me, but all the pining for Giles on this board reminds me of a guy who still is in love with his college girlfriend who broke up with him, wishing she'd see the light and return tohim, after she has married another man and had a couple of kids.

 

Oh goody. Personal insults because my opinion does not agree with yours.

 

It's really disappointing when a debate turns into personal attacks. I'm out. Oh, and you are not pardoned. Sorry.

Edited June 14, 2006 by BigbadB

[BigbadB]

For further proof that a players numbers suffer playing at Petco, see:

 

Cameron, Mike

Castilla, Vinny

Piazza, Mike

 

(Actually, Mike's numbers look about the same over the last several years, until you look at his home and away splits.

 

Look up anybody. Play at Petco and your offensive numbers will suffer.

 

Even Chan Ho Park can pitch well there.

 

Giles still isn't hitting for a lot of power even away from Petco, only an .852 OPS.

 

And how is Aramis doing? :wink:

 

Players struggle, and Giles has been struggling a lot like Aramis. Of course, both players have been asked to carry their teams since most of the other players are horrible.

[CubinNY]

Sadly, the Cubs are not one or two players away from contention. They are @ 1/3 of a team away from contention.

 

Tinkering here or there won't make this team good for this year or next. In fact, it's what Hendry has done for the past 3 years with very limited success.

 

And the free-agent class is once again filled with overpriced aging veterans who likely won't perform up to contract.

 

They should sell whatever they can to try to improve toward the future.

 

This includes Zambrano, Prior, Lee, and anyone else. Now that doesn't mean they should dump them for just anything. The offers would have to be equal to or greater than the tallent for players like Lee and Zambrano and some of the top prospects. If that is the case, I don't see any of them to likely be traded. Barrett is an adequate catcher who is an above average hitter for a catcher. He is a premium stock for his position, they should get premium return for him.

 

Guys like Jones, Pierre, or any of the middle relievers probably aren't going to get the Cubs much, but if the right offer comes they should make the deal.

 

Closer is the most over-valued commidity in baseball, still. I imagine Dempster would fetch some premium talent.

 

Regardless, with the current decision makers on the North Side I'm not real confident about any choice they make.

[Mizzou]

 

That's some nice work, but it's not that simple. Jones plays in the NL Central, home of the:

 

3rd, 8th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 16th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the NL West, home of the:

 

2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 9th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the absolute toughest hitting park in baseball. San Fran, LA and Arizona are other tough hitters parks in his league.

 

I'm not buying your argument that his numbers are lower than Jacque's because of the division he plays in. Giles has played a whole 2 games in Dodger Stadium, 2 in AT&T Park, and 3 in Chase Field for a combined 32 at bats, and he has 11 hits in those 32 at bats (about a .340 average). Oh, and he has an OPS over 1300 in both AT&T Park and Chase Field. And I don't think I need to mention Coors Field.

 

The bottomline is that Jacque Jones has outproduced the much wanted Brian Giles. For half the cost.

[CubinNY]

 

That's some nice work, but it's not that simple. Jones plays in the NL Central, home of the:

 

3rd, 8th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 16th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the NL West, home of the:

 

2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 9th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the absolute toughest hitting park in baseball. San Fran, LA and Arizona are other tough hitters parks in his league.

 

I'm not buying your argument that his numbers are lower than Jacque's because of the division he plays in. Giles has played a whole 2 games in Dodger Stadium, 2 in AT&T Park, and 3 in Chase Field for a combined 32 at bats, and he has 11 hits in those 32 at bats (about a .340 average). Oh, and he has an OPS over 1300 in both AT&T Park and Chase Field. And I don't think I need to mention Coors Field.

 

The bottomline is that Jacque Jones has outproduced the much wanted Brian Giles. For half the cost.

 

Can we at least wait until the 3/4 of the season is over to proclaim JJ a good buy. He's been doing well but the season isn't eve half over yet.

[Mizzou]

 

That's some nice work, but it's not that simple. Jones plays in the NL Central, home of the:

 

3rd, 8th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 16th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the NL West, home of the:

 

2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 9th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the absolute toughest hitting park in baseball. San Fran, LA and Arizona are other tough hitters parks in his league.

 

I'm not buying your argument that his numbers are lower than Jacque's because of the division he plays in. Giles has played a whole 2 games in Dodger Stadium, 2 in AT&T Park, and 3 in Chase Field for a combined 32 at bats, and he has 11 hits in those 32 at bats (about a .340 average). Oh, and he has an OPS over 1300 in both AT&T Park and Chase Field. And I don't think I need to mention Coors Field.

 

The bottomline is that Jacque Jones has outproduced the much wanted Brian Giles. For half the cost.

 

Can we at least wait until the 3/4 of the season is over to proclaim JJ a good buy. He's been doing well but the season isn't eve half over yet.

Well I never said he was a good buy, but he's obviously been a better purchase than Giles. And are you serious about waiting 3/4 of the season to judge him? That's pretty silly to suggest waiting til he has played 120 games to compare him to other offseason options.

[BigbadB]

 

That's some nice work, but it's not that simple. Jones plays in the NL Central, home of the:

 

3rd, 8th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 16th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the NL West, home of the:

 

2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 9th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the absolute toughest hitting park in baseball. San Fran, LA and Arizona are other tough hitters parks in his league.

 

I'm not buying your argument that his numbers are lower than Jacque's because of the division he plays in. Giles has played a whole 2 games in Dodger Stadium, 2 in AT&T Park, and 3 in Chase Field for a combined 32 at bats, and he has 11 hits in those 32 at bats (about a .340 average). Oh, and he has an OPS over 1300 in both AT&T Park and Chase Field. And I don't think I need to mention Coors Field.

 

The bottomline is that Jacque Jones has outproduced the much wanted Brian Giles. For half the cost.

 

I suppose that depends on what you consider "outproduced". Giles has scored 12 more runs, driven in 6 more RBI, and has a .388 to .327 OBP advantage over Jones while playing in a much tougher park to hit.

 

I don't see it as coincidental that Giles numbers dropped significantly when he moved from Pittsburgh to San Diego. See how his SLG dropped in 2003 from Pittsburgh to San Diego. See any other player on the Padres team and how their SLG's dropped when they moved to Petco.

 

It's a simple question. Who would you rather have? Jones, Neifi and Rusch or Brian Giles?

[Mizzou]

I'm not buying your argument that his numbers are lower than Jacque's because of the division he plays in. Giles has played a whole 2 games in Dodger Stadium, 2 in AT&T Park, and 3 in Chase Field for a combined 32 at bats, and he has 11 hits in those 32 at bats (about a .340 average). Oh, and he has an OPS over 1300 in both AT&T Park and Chase Field. And I don't think I need to mention Coors Field.

 

The bottomline is that Jacque Jones has outproduced the much wanted Brian Giles. For half the cost.

 

I suppose that depends on what you consider "outproduced". Giles has scored 12 more runs, driven in 6 more RBI, and has a .388 to .327 OBP advantage over Jones while playing in a much tougher park to hit.

 

I don't see it as coincidental that Giles numbers dropped significantly when he moved from Pittsburgh to San Diego. See how his SLG dropped in 2003 from Pittsburgh to San Diego. See any other player on the Padres team and how their SLG's dropped when they moved to Petco.

 

It's a simple question. Who would you rather have? Jones, Neifi and Rusch or Brian Giles?

Well, runs scored and RBI's are obviously team stats and therefore irrevelant, but I will address the rest of your post.

 

No one is going to say that Jones is better at getting on base than Giles is. But the fact is that Jacque has a much better OPS than Brian does. And as for your last question, I'd rather have Giles because he gives us something that we desperately need - an ability to get on base 2 out of 5 times a game. But you overlook that Jones and his 6 million dollar salary has been better than Giles and his 12 million (?) dollar salary this year, park factor or no park factor.

[Backtobanks]

Sadly, the Cubs are not one or two players away from contention. They are @ 1/3 of a team away from contention.

 

Tinkering here or there won't make this team good for this year or next. In fact, it's what Hendry has done for the past 3 years with very limited success.

 

And the free-agent class is once again filled with overpriced aging veterans who likely won't perform up to contract.

 

They should sell whatever they can to try to improve toward the future.

 

This includes Zambrano, Prior, Lee, and anyone else. Now that doesn't mean they should dump them for just anything. The offers would have to be equal to or greater than the tallent for players like Lee and Zambrano and some of the top prospects. If that is the case, I don't see any of them to likely be traded. Barrett is an adequate catcher who is an above average hitter for a catcher. He is a premium stock for his position, they should get premium return for him.

 

Guys like Jones, Pierre, or any of the middle relievers probably aren't going to get the Cubs much, but if the right offer comes they should make the deal.

 

Closer is the most over-valued commidity in baseball, still. I imagine Dempster would fetch some premium talent.

 

Regardless, with the current decision makers on the North Side I'm not real confident about any choice they make.

 

I don't agree that the Cubs are 1/3 of a team away from contention. I believe the Cubs without the injuries to Prior, Wood, and Lee would be contending this year, especially with the injury to Pujols. I also agree that the Cubs need to make some kind of blockbuster trade (Abreu, Cabrera, Soriano, etc.) and not tinker with the free agent market. There is no way the Cubs are going to trade the likes of Zambrano, Prior, Lee, Ramirez, and Barrett and "rebuild" the team. Whether we like it or not, the major moves the Cubs are going to make will involve them trading young players (Hill, Guzman, Wuertz, etc.) away and receiving players that

will help now and in the future. Obviously, other deals (Maddux, Williamson, Pierre, Walker, etc.) will involve receiving prospects that might eventually help. Who could you get for someone like Zambrano that could have a bigger impact on the team than Zambrano? The same would pretty much hold for Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, etc. The Cubs are not going to rebuild from scratch and allow the contending White Sox to take over the city.

[BigbadB]

Well, runs scored and RBI's are obviously team stats and therefore irrevelant, but I will address the rest of your post.

 

In a sense, yes, they are team stats.

 

But, if a guy is getting on base much more than someone else, he's likely going to score more runs.

 

You can discount park effect if you don't believe it factors into a players performance, but I believe it can make a significant difference.

[Geech]

In a sense, yes, they are team stats.

 

But, if a guy is getting on base much more than someone else, he's likely going to score more runs.

 

You can discount park effect if you don't believe it factors into a players performance, but I believe it can make a significant difference.

 

Also, there's the fact that Giles has a .287 EQA compared to Jones' .277.

[CubinNY]

Sadly, the Cubs are not one or two players away from contention. They are @ 1/3 of a team away from contention.

 

Tinkering here or there won't make this team good for this year or next. In fact, it's what Hendry has done for the past 3 years with very limited success.

 

And the free-agent class is once again filled with overpriced aging veterans who likely won't perform up to contract.

 

They should sell whatever they can to try to improve toward the future.

 

This includes Zambrano, Prior, Lee, and anyone else. Now that doesn't mean they should dump them for just anything. The offers would have to be equal to or greater than the tallent for players like Lee and Zambrano and some of the top prospects. If that is the case, I don't see any of them to likely be traded. Barrett is an adequate catcher who is an above average hitter for a catcher. He is a premium stock for his position, they should get premium return for him.

 

Guys like Jones, Pierre, or any of the middle relievers probably aren't going to get the Cubs much, but if the right offer comes they should make the deal.

 

Closer is the most over-valued commidity in baseball, still. I imagine Dempster would fetch some premium talent.

 

Regardless, with the current decision makers on the North Side I'm not real confident about any choice they make.

 

Bump. Just because I want the record to show I was way ahead of goony.:wink:

[goonys evil twin]

Bump. Just because I want the record to show I was way ahead of goony.:wink:

 

Didn't mean to hurt your feelings. I wasn't in town when that was posted so I didn't see it.

 

I just think that with all the talk of dealing Williamson and other bullpen arms, it's about time people consider trading Dempster. The idea that he'd turn into an elite closer is pretty much shot. He might remain a decent closer for a while though, and he does carry added value because of the label.

[CubinNY]

Bump. Just because I want the record to show I was way ahead of goony.:wink:

 

Didn't mean to hurt your feelings. I wasn't in town when that was posted so I didn't see it.

 

I just think that with all the talk of dealing Williamson and other bullpen arms, it's about time people consider trading Dempster. The idea that he'd turn into an elite closer is pretty much shot. He might remain a decent closer for a while though, and he does carry added value because of the label.

 

You didn't hurt my feelings. Your post was much better thought out and written. I was just having a little fun riding on your coat tails.

[RynoRules]

 

That's some nice work, but it's not that simple. Jones plays in the NL Central, home of the:

 

3rd, 8th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 16th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the NL West, home of the:

 

2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 9th best pitching staffs in the NL.

 

Brian Giles plays in the absolute toughest hitting park in baseball. San Fran, LA and Arizona are other tough hitters parks in his league.

 

I'm not buying your argument that his numbers are lower than Jacque's because of the division he plays in. Giles has played a whole 2 games in Dodger Stadium, 2 in AT&T Park, and 3 in Chase Field for a combined 32 at bats, and he has 11 hits in those 32 at bats (about a .340 average). Oh, and he has an OPS over 1300 in both AT&T Park and Chase Field. And I don't think I need to mention Coors Field.

 

The bottomline is that Jacque Jones has outproduced the much wanted Brian Giles. For half the cost.

 

I suppose that depends on what you consider "outproduced". Giles has scored 12 more runs, driven in 6 more RBI, and has a .388 to .327 OBP advantage over Jones while playing in a much tougher park to hit.

 

I don't see it as coincidental that Giles numbers dropped significantly when he moved from Pittsburgh to San Diego. See how his SLG dropped in 2003 from Pittsburgh to San Diego. See any other player on the Padres team and how their SLG's dropped when they moved to Petco.

 

It's a simple question. Who would you rather have? Jones, Neifi and Rusch or Brian Giles?

 

I'd rather have Giles, no doubt, but seriously, does he owe you money?

 

Jones has been as good as Giles in several catagories and costs less. You could argue that Giles slugging has dropped due to his advancing age as much as the change in venue (see TT's stat that shows his road OPS is no better than home). Who cares about runs and RBIs - those are as much due to who is around him as they are to his own skills. I know you aren't arguing that he is more of a "clutch player" than Jones.

 

The real difference, IMO, is in OBP, which makes Giles more valuable. Hindsight is certainly 20/20 and Giles would have been the better pick up, but Jones hasn't been that bad either.

[goonys evil twin]

Bump. Just because I want the record to show I was way ahead of goony.:wink:

 

Didn't mean to hurt your feelings. I wasn't in town when that was posted so I didn't see it.

 

I just think that with all the talk of dealing Williamson and other bullpen arms, it's about time people consider trading Dempster. The idea that he'd turn into an elite closer is pretty much shot. He might remain a decent closer for a while though, and he does carry added value because of the label.

 

You didn't hurt my feelings. Your post was much better thought out and written. I was just having a little fun riding on your coat tails.

 

And I was just having a little fun back at you. O:)

[CubFanPhilly]

Here's what I'd do to salvage something from this train wreck:

 

POSITION STARTERS

Barrett - hold

Lee - hold

Walker - DEAL (I doubt he's interested in coming back anyway.)

Cedeno - hold

ARam - hold

Murton - (hold unless part of a deal for a Cabrera/Abreu type).

Pierre - DEAL! for whatever you can get (there's no way you can offer arbitration and hope for compensation picks)

Jones - DEAL! for any "B" or better prospect (and consider yourself lucky JH)

 

BENCH

Nevin - DEAL (won't bring much, but can probably be dealt)

Mabry - hold/deal (won't bring anything anyway)

Neifi - (see Mabry)

Blanco - (see Mabry; bring Soto up if you can get someone to take him)

Bynum - hold/DFA

Womack - DEAL/DFA

 

DL

Rusch - hold (I'll explain below)

Williamson - DEAL

Wood - shut down for the rest of the season/discuss a 1-yr "rehab/make good" contract base of $2 mil with incentives up to $5 mil. if he can break back into the rotation or bullpen next season

Miller - DEAL by deadline if he can make a couple of solid starts soon - otherwise discuss same deal as Wood

Pagan - hold/DFA (play him in Sept. and see if he can generate some value)

 

STARTERS

1) Zambrano - strict 90-pitch count limit for the rest of the season

2) Prior - 90 pitch limit

Maddux - DEAL (LA or SD)

3) Marshall - 90 pitch limit - shut him down at 160 IP

4) Hill - bring up to fill-in for Maddux the rest of the way

5) Guzman - 5th starter

Marmol - down until September

Williams - up when Marshall gets shut down

 

BULLPEN

Rusch - I want two 60-pitch mop-up outings a week. He's going to get abuse on his arm AND from the fans (it won't be pretty). But MAYBE he pitches well enough to convince some fool GM that he's a ML pitcher and the Cubs get out of some of his '07 money?

Aardsma/Novoa/Wuertz/Ohman - more mop-up duty - let's see who's ready to stick next season.

Howry - limited use / DEAL ONLY IF a great deal comes along

Eyre - ditto

Dempster - DEAL (agree with Gooney's comments elsewhere)

 

CALL-UPS

Pie (for Pierre)

Marmol (September)

Wuertz (when Williamson and/or Dempster is dealt)

Hill (for Maddux)

Soto (Sept. /earlier if you can move Blanco)

Restovich

Fontenot

 

It'd be ugly, but we might find out if some of these guys are ready to contribute next season.

 

CFP

[Balsa]

DEAL........or no deal?

[Monco]

I would deal Barrett if the price is right. I would rather have a better defensive catcher. Mop up duty should fall to guys like Rich Hill etc. Let them gain major league experience. I'd consider moving Aram for a price.At least 2 top prospects.

[Sarcastic]

I would deal Barrett if the price is right. I would rather have a better defensive catcher. Mop up duty should fall to guys like Rich Hill etc. Let them gain major league experience. I'd consider moving Aram for a price.At least 2 top prospects.

 

The only reason to trade Barrett would be if the team is going to completely rebuild. He is 29 years old and in the middle of the best season of his career. I don't care how bad he is at fielding, he is a better hitter than almost any other catcher in the league. Unless they can get something very valuable for him, there is no good reason to get rid of him.

[srbin84]

I'd like to see us consolidate a lot of our smaller assets into a couple big ones, even if we have to overpay to do it.