Grudzielanek

[Careless]

Pedro just pointed out why that statement is justifiable.

 

It's stupid because it's misleading. For example, if the league average for home runs by a first baseman is 30, and one guy has 29 and the other 31, technically one guy is a below average home run hitter and the other is an above average home run hitter. That statement may be true, but it's a waste of time to phrase things that way unless you are trying to make people think one is much better than the other when in fact they are basically the same.

So because at Grudz's near best he's not as good as an average walker(I mean average for Walker, not Walker is average), you say they're essentially the same?

[srbin84]

Pedro just pointed out why that statement is justifiable.

 

It's stupid because it's misleading. For example, if the league average for home runs by a first baseman is 30, and one guy has 29 and the other 31, technically one guy is a below average home run hitter and the other is an above average home run hitter. That statement may be true, but it's a waste of time to phrase things that way unless you are trying to make people think one is much better than the other when in fact they are basically the same.

So because at Grudz's near best he's not as good as an average walker, you say they're essentially the same?

 

Three year splits show an OPS difference of .033. Yeah, they're essentially the same.

Edited June 6, 2006 by srbin84

[goonys evil twin]

Goony was implying Walker was a lot better than Grudz than the stats indicate.

 

Walker has been significantly better than Grudz. He hasn't been "a lot better" in the Pujols is a lot better than Paul Konerko sort of way, but it's been a significant difference. And since this thread started as somebody wondering why Grudz doesn't get much credit (I think that's how it started, I don't remember now), I think it's very reasonable to compare his production and age to Walker. Todd is younger and better, and didn't get much attention on the market. It stands to reason that an older worse version of Walker would get even less attention.

[goonys evil twin]

Then 9 is a significant difference, and I still don't like the stat. They are closer to each other as hitters than that.

 

It's not that significant of a difference other than labeling them in a general manner. Walker was slightly above average. Grudz was slighly below average. Last year's difference of 23 is significant, and it shows how much better offensively Walker was. There's nothing wrong with the stat in comparing them offensively.

 

I just didn't see how Grudz could be classified as a below average hitter and Walker is an above average hitter. I guess it was just a gross exaggeration of the facts.

 

No, it's not a gross exaggeration of the facts, it is the facts. Walker has been significantly better than Grudz in recent years.

[srbin84]

Then 9 is a significant difference, and I still don't like the stat. They are closer to each other as hitters than that.

 

It's not that significant of a difference other than labeling them in a general manner. Walker was slightly above average. Grudz was slighly below average. Last year's difference of 23 is significant, and it shows how much better offensively Walker was. There's nothing wrong with the stat in comparing them offensively.

 

I just didn't see how Grudz could be classified as a below average hitter and Walker is an above average hitter. I guess it was just a gross exaggeration of the facts.

 

No, it's not a gross exaggeration of the facts, it is the facts. Walker has been significantly better than Grudz in recent years.

 

Well, we just disagree then. I'm sticking with OPS and a .033 difference over the last three seasons is enough for me to conclude they are pretty close to each other as hitters.

[goonys evil twin]

Three year splits show an OPS difference of .033. Yeah, they're essentially the same.

 

No, they are not. That is a difference. And it's more pronounce if you look at the past 2 years, which is more important when talking about guys already in their mid-to-late 30's (Grudz).

 

From 2003-2005 Brian Giles OPS was 896, Andruw Jones was 868, a tighter difference than Walker and Grudz. But Giles outproduced him each year and out OPS+ him each year. Giles has been the better hitter. They are not essentially the same.

 

Just because a guy is relatively close to another guy, it doesn't mean he's the same. If one guy outproduces the other guy each year, he is better. And in Walker's case, he's also younger.

[goonys evil twin]

Well, we just disagree then. I'm sticking with OPS and a .033 difference over the last three seasons is enough for me to conclude they are pretty close to each other as hitters.

 

Stick all you want, you'll be wrong. Grudz has been below average and Walker has been above. Walker has also been more above average than Grudz has been below average. He's also younger. There's a reason the market was thing for Grudz.

[srbin84]

Well, we just disagree then. I'm sticking with OPS and a .033 difference over the last three seasons is enough for me to conclude they are pretty close to each other as hitters.

 

Stick all you want, you'll be wrong. Grudz has been below average and Walker has been above. Walker has also been more above average than Grudz has been below average. He's also younger. There's a reason the market was thing for Grudz.

 

He's getting paid 4 million dollars. That's pretty good for a second baseman.

[srbin84]

Three year splits show an OPS difference of .033. Yeah, they're essentially the same.

 

No, they are not. That is a difference. And it's more pronounce if you look at the past 2 years, which is more important when talking about guys already in their mid-to-late 30's (Grudz).

 

From 2003-2005 Brian Giles OPS was 896, Andruw Jones was 868, a tighter difference than Walker and Grudz. But Giles outproduced him each year and out OPS+ him each year. Giles has been the better hitter. They are not essentially the same.

 

Just because a guy is relatively close to another guy, it doesn't mean he's the same. If one guy outproduces the other guy each year, he is better. And in Walker's case, he's also younger.

 

I think, to go back to my original point, Jones and Grudz are both as good of players as the two they are being compared to. Personally, I'll take much better defense for about .030 OPS. If you don't like range factor and zone rating, find some other defensive stats that compare any of these four players, and I'll read it.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Three year splits show an OPS difference of .033. Yeah, they're essentially the same.

 

No, they are not. That is a difference. And it's more pronounce if you look at the past 2 years, which is more important when talking about guys already in their mid-to-late 30's (Grudz).

 

From 2003-2005 Brian Giles OPS was 896, Andruw Jones was 868, a tighter difference than Walker and Grudz. But Giles outproduced him each year and out OPS+ him each year. Giles has been the better hitter. They are not essentially the same.

 

Just because a guy is relatively close to another guy, it doesn't mean he's the same. If one guy outproduces the other guy each year, he is better. And in Walker's case, he's also younger.

 

I think, to go back to my original point, Jones and Grudz are both as good of players as the two they are being compared to. Personally, I'll take much better defense for about .030 OPS. If you don't like range factor and zone rating, find some other defensive stats that compare any of these four players, and I'll read it.

 

It's not as simple as .030. OPS+ is adjusting for the parks the players play in. Last year, Busch was more of a hitter's park than Wrigley making the .088 even more impressive. Walker has a .020 OPS advantage this year, and park factors likely play a factor there as well as Kaufman is a much more favorable hitter's park. Home/Away splits: Grudz is at 929/679, Walker is at 882/740. They are not interchangeable parts.

[rocket]

does ops+ account for at bats?

 

grudz's 2004 abs: 257

walker's 2004 abs: 372

[goonys evil twin]

does ops+ account for at bats?

 

grudz's 2004 abs: 257

walker's 2004 abs: 372

 

No, it's a rate thing (at least I'm pretty sure it is).

[Ding Dong Johnson]

does ops+ account for at bats?

 

grudz's 2004 abs: 257

walker's 2004 abs: 372

 

Not that I am aware of. Hardball Times defines it as "OPS measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An OPS+ over 100 is better than average, less than 100 is below average."

[Transmogrified Tiger]

According to John Dewan's Fielding Bible, where he analyzes defense based on play-by-play data, Grudz was the 3rd best fielding 2B in baseball last year, tied with Belliard and Hudson. For the last 3 years, he's 11th of 25, and Walker is 22nd.

 

And OPS+ is most definitely a rate stat.

[KyHen]

Some thoughts on Grudz:

I didn't like him much as a hitter. He had a solid average, but really not any patience at the plate. Mark didn't see a pitch he didn't like last year.

 

Now, as far as comparing him to Walker... I'd say that Walker has the edge, but it's closer than people would think. I tend to agree that Grudz is a good to very good defensively player.

 

Now before I comment on his defense more, let me say this: defensive stats are garbage. Period. Range factor is useless because comparing a Cardinal 2B and a Cub 2B is going to be greatly skewed toward the Cardinal, since he's going to have more opportunities playing on a ground ball staff. Defensive metrics only work well in a perfect world, and baseball is far from that.

 

Grudz has a very strong arm and a quick release. There is a reason the Cardinals set their all-time record for double plays in a season last year -- Grudz played a big role in that. He also had plus range and an accurate arm. He wasn't much of a hitter last year (career average OPS, I laugh hysterically whenever I hear someone complain about the Cards finding another 'needle in a haystack' with Grudz), but his defense made him a very valuable piece of the team.

[Rob]

A quick primer for the uninitiated...

 

BRAA - Batting Runs Above Average

FRAA - Fielding Runs Above Average

 

Obviously, neither is a rate stat. It takes their total production and compares it to the league average player at the position... so this includes durability.

 

Let's just look at the last three years...

 

Grudz:

 

2003 - BRAA 8 / FRAA 3

2004 - BRAA 1 / FRAA 2

2005 - BRAA -2 / FRAA 5

 

Walker:

 

2003 - BRAA -2 / FRAA -16

2004 - BRAA 6 / FRAA -4

2005 - BRAA 10 / FRAA -5

 

Some notes:

 

Grudz only played half the games in 04.

Walker's 03 seems to be an abberation. His BRAA hadn't been negative since 2000, and his FRAA is around -5 most years.

 

 

 

Grudz is losing his power stroke to the degree that Walker's defense is covered. The only problem is, Walker has to settle in somewhere between his 04 and 05 to keep the production similar.

 

For the 1.5 million dollar difference, I'd take Walker five days a week and twice on sundays.

[jaydee]

Grudz had an OPS+ of 96 and 92 in 2004 and 2005. Walker was 105 and 115. Grudz is in his late 30's now, while Todd is 3 years younger. Neither one is in huge demand, but Todd is clearly the better option.

 

Thanks for the giggles...you failed to mention defense here which is where Grudzielanek has it ALL over Todd Walker. OPS alone is not the way to judge a player. You must look at the COMPLETE player...but I know how you stat geeks are. Oh and it helps that Grudz knows how to keep his yapper shut and play the game hard. Character guy... What a huge loss for the Cubs when they lost Grudz.

 

grudz is good defensively? good one. and since when is todd walker not a character guy? you have been listening to too much sports radio

[cubs121]

The equipment people hate stitching his name on the jersey?

 

:lol: :lol:

 

Just wait til Jarrod Saltalamacchia makes the Braves next year.

 

And yes, he would have the longest name in MLB history. True fact......unless I'm wrong of course.

hey how long did it take you to right that? :D

[RedIvyCub]

Grudz had an OPS+ of 96 and 92 in 2004 and 2005. Walker was 105 and 115. Grudz is in his late 30's now, while Todd is 3 years younger. Neither one is in huge demand, but Todd is clearly the better option.

 

Thanks for the giggles...you failed to mention defense here which is where Grudzielanek has it ALL over Todd Walker. OPS alone is not the way to judge a player. You must look at the COMPLETE player...but I know how you stat geeks are. Oh and it helps that Grudz knows how to keep his yapper shut and play the game hard. Character guy... What a huge loss for the Cubs when they lost Grudz.

 

grudz is good defensively? good one. and since when is todd walker not a character guy? you have been listening to too much sports radio

 

I don't listen to sports talk radio. It is rubbish. You stat geeks here amaze me. Funny how any game I watch that the announcers for the other team seem to really like Grudzielanek as an all around player. Trust their judgement over you stat geeks.

 

Oh and one more thing...from the KC Star:

No-error ball: Royals second baseman Mark Grudzielanek, going into Saturday night's game against the Mariners, had no errors in 46 games while handling 173 chances.

 

Including last season with the St. Louis Cardinals, Grudzielanek had a string of 64 games without an error.

[Banedon]

I don't listen to sports talk radio. It is rubbish. You stat geeks here amaze me. Funny how any game I watch that the announcers for the other team seem to really like Grudzielanek as an all around player. Trust their judgement over you stat geeks.

 

Oh and one more thing...from the KC Star:

No-error ball: Royals second baseman Mark Grudzielanek, going into Saturday night's game against the Mariners, had no errors in 46 games while handling 173 chances.

 

Including last season with the St. Louis Cardinals, Grudzielanek had a string of 64 games without an error.

 

Drop the name calling. Immediately.

[CubinNY]

Grudz had an OPS+ of 96 and 92 in 2004 and 2005. Walker was 105 and 115. Grudz is in his late 30's now, while Todd is 3 years younger. Neither one is in huge demand, but Todd is clearly the better option.

 

Thanks for the giggles...you failed to mention defense here which is where Grudzielanek has it ALL over Todd Walker. OPS alone is not the way to judge a player. You must look at the COMPLETE player...but I know how you stat geeks are. Oh and it helps that Grudz knows how to keep his yapper shut and play the game hard. Character guy... What a huge loss for the Cubs when they lost Grudz.

 

grudz is good defensively? good one. and since when is todd walker not a character guy? you have been listening to too much sports radio

 

I don't listen to sports talk radio. It is rubbish. You stat geeks here amaze me. Funny how any game I watch that the announcers for the other team seem to really like Grudzielanek as an all around player. Trust their judgement over you stat geeks.

 

Are you seriously saying that Grudz is a better "all around" player then Walker?

 

And are you also saying that evidence to the contrary doesn't matter?

 

Simply amazing.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Grudz had an OPS+ of 96 and 92 in 2004 and 2005. Walker was 105 and 115. Grudz is in his late 30's now, while Todd is 3 years younger. Neither one is in huge demand, but Todd is clearly the better option.

 

Thanks for the giggles...you failed to mention defense here which is where Grudzielanek has it ALL over Todd Walker. OPS alone is not the way to judge a player. You must look at the COMPLETE player...but I know how you stat geeks are. Oh and it helps that Grudz knows how to keep his yapper shut and play the game hard. Character guy... What a huge loss for the Cubs when they lost Grudz.

 

grudz is good defensively? good one. and since when is todd walker not a character guy? you have been listening to too much sports radio

 

I don't listen to sports talk radio. It is rubbish. You stat geeks here amaze me. Funny how any game I watch that the announcers for the other team seem to really like Grudzielanek as an all around player. Trust their judgement over you stat geeks.

 

Are you seriously saying that Grudz is a better "all around" player then Walker?

 

And are you also saying that evidence to the contrary doesn't matter?

 

Simply amazing.

 

It's better to rely on guys like Ron Santo to tell us the true value of a player?

[Mark Priors Calves]

Joe Morgan is a baseball announcer.

[srbin84]

According to John Dewan's Fielding Bible, where he analyzes defense based on play-by-play data, Grudz was the 3rd best fielding 2B in baseball last year, tied with Belliard and Hudson. For the last 3 years, he's 11th of 25, and Walker is 22nd.

 

And OPS+ is most definitely a rate stat.

 

That sounds about right.

[CubinNY]

I don't listen to sports talk radio. It is rubbish. You stat geeks here amaze me. Funny how any game I watch that the announcers for the other team seem to really like Grudzielanek as an all around player. Trust their judgement over you stat geeks.

 

Oh and one more thing...from the KC Star:

No-error ball: Royals second baseman Mark Grudzielanek, going into Saturday night's game against the Mariners, had no errors in 46 games while handling 173 chances.

 

Including last season with the St. Louis Cardinals, Grudzielanek had a string of 64 games without an error.

 

Drop the name calling. Immediately.

 

I don't think his comments were address to me, but I take that as a complement.