fire sale

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jones and Maddux get dealt for the best offer you can.

 

Pierre you wait til the deadline and weigh the trade return v. draft pick.

 

If Wood pitches well once he returns consider pulling a Sidney Ponson circa 2003 if possible.

[Rob]

I don't feel like writing up each and every move I'd make, but here are some of the people I'd make sure to keep.

 

Lee

Barrett

Cedeno

Z

Prior

Guzman

 

And that's pretty much it. I know a lot of people would point out the omissions of Aramis and Murton, but Aramis would be able to fetch a pretty penny, and I'm not sold on Murton developing the power necessary to be anything more than barely adequate. Don't get me wrong, I do like both of them, but I'm not so attached to them I couldn't even think of a deal.

 

Hill and Marshall could be had for the right price of course, but if we aren't retaining Maddux, Wood, or Miller, I'd probably hold on to one or both of them.

 

And here's a few of the prospects I'd be looking at in particular from some of the teams that could be buyers.

 

Jose Tabata (NYY)

Andre Ethier (LAD)

Brandon Jones (ATL)

Hunter Pence (HOU)

Erick Aybar (LAA)

Gio Gonzalez (PHI)

George Kottaras (SD)

Matt Tuiasosopo (SEA)

Ian Kinsler (TEX)

[Jon]

Not only is it too soon, but there's no real chance of a fire sale. They don't need to free up salaries and Hendry isn't going to move his favorite players. Pierre is going to stay the rest of the season and Jones is going to be really hard to move. If they find a taker without having to take on a bad salary, great, but why would a team out there be jumping at a platoon outfielder with a 2+ year contract? They also don't need to free up an outfield spot unless Pie is ready, which he isn't (although Jim probably has other ideas).

 

Ramirez isn't going anywhere and the odds that Wood or Maddux get moved are probably quite small. Dusty getting fired is probably more likely, and I don't see that happening.

 

Hendry may move or release some guys, but only those whose value is relatively low.

[YearofDaCubs]

Not only is it too soon, but there's no real chance of a fire sale. They don't need to free up salaries and Hendry isn't going to move his favorite players. Pierre is going to stay the rest of the season and Jones is going to be really hard to move. If they find a taker without having to take on a bad salary, great, but why would a team out there be jumping at a platoon outfielder with a 2+ year contract? They also don't need to free up an outfield spot unless Pie is ready, which he isn't (although Jim probably has other ideas).

 

Ramirez isn't going anywhere and the odds that Wood or Maddux get moved are probably quite small. Dusty getting fired is probably more likely, and I don't see that happening.

 

Hendry may move or release some guys, but only those whose value is relatively low.

Unfortunately, you are probably right.

[Monco]

No one is untouchable.Hendrys moves the last year or 2 have been bad.His free agent signings this off season cost us our 2nd,3rd, and 4th round picks.I'm concerned with what he'll get back in trades.

[Rooftop Bum]

Honestly, I dont' think anyone should be excluded from getting traded. Obviously Lee is not going anywhere now that he is signed for awhile. Anyone they can get rid of and bring something decent back in return is fine with me.

[USSoccer]

You keep Z, Prior, Ramirez, Barrett, Murton, Lee and Cedeno.

 

Everyone else is available.

[cheapseats]

I would keep Marshall, Cedeno, Murton, Barrett, Dempster, everyone else can go for the right price

 

Question for all:

 

Do we overvalue Cedeno and Murton?

 

Cedeno is currently ranked 15th among shortstops in VORP, so he's middle of the pack offensively, and he's slumping right now, so he could drop into the bottom third. Defensively, his range is great, but his throwing accuracy has been a problem. He's ranked as very below average defensively by Clay Davenport's fielding metric. As the season progresses, I expect him to get past the wildness, but it may not happen.

 

His OBP has been extremely average-driven. He's in the bottom 9 in all of MLB in pitches per plate appearance, joining notorious free-swingers like Vlad Guerrero and Jeff Francoeur.

 

PECOTA projects Ronny to be worth about 3 wins above a replacement player this year. That looks good to Cubs fans because it's better than Neifi Perez, but it's not that great, either. And PECOTA doesn't see him improving much if at all over the next 5 years.

 

Murton has been a slightly below average fielder in left (his awkward fielding makes him look worse than he actually is). His OBP is great, but his slugging isn't what you want from a corner outfielder. He is among the league leaders in ground balls (last I heard, he was right behind Juan Pierre). Like Cedeno, Cubs fans support Murton because he's so much better than what we saw in LF for much of last year.

 

If Murton can keep his OBP up, he might make a good leadoff hitter, but if he's a starter, the Cubs would need to pick up some power at a position in which power is not normally expected (SS, 2B, CF, etc).

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I would keep Marshall, Cedeno, Murton, Barrett, Dempster, everyone else can go for the right price

 

Question for all:

 

Do we overvalue Cedeno and Murton?

 

Cedeno is currently ranked 15th among shortstops in VORP, so he's middle of the pack offensively, and he's slumping right now, so he could drop into the bottom third. Defensively, his range is great, but his throwing accuracy has been a problem. He's ranked as very below average defensively by Clay Davenport's fielding metric. As the season progresses, I expect him to get past the wildness, but it may not happen.

 

His OBP has been extremely average-driven. He's in the bottom 9 in all of MLB in pitches per plate appearance, joining notorious free-swingers like Vlad Guerrero and Jeff Francoeur.

 

PECOTA projects Ronny to be worth about 3 wins above a replacement player this year. That looks good to Cubs fans because it's better than Neifi Perez, but it's not that great, either. And PECOTA doesn't see him improving much if at all over the next 5 years.

 

Murton has been a slightly below average fielder in left (his awkward fielding makes him look worse than he actually is). His OBP is great, but his slugging isn't what you want from a corner outfielder. He is among the league leaders in ground balls (last I heard, he was right behind Juan Pierre). Like Cedeno, Cubs fans support Murton because he's so much better than what we saw in LF for much of last year.

 

If Murton can keep his OBP up, he might make a good leadoff hitter, but if he's a starter, the Cubs would need to pick up some power at a position in which power is not normally expected (SS, 2B, CF, etc).

 

It's not that I overvalue Murton and Cedeno, but they're cheap and under team control for the foreseeable future. That's why I don't deal them in any trade this year. If the Cubs decide they can upgrade those positions down the road, then great. Neither player is going to walk at the end of the season and neither costs a great deal of cash so dealing either one doesn't make much sense.

 

Now, in November as the Cubs are constructing a roster in hopes of contending again, then a further evaluation of both players is needed.

[stitchface]

I don't see any chance of Ramirez opting out unless he really turns it around and posts numbers similar to 2005. In which case, I want him back.

[Roast]

I'm as pissed off about this slump as anyone, and as depressed as everyone. Luckily, its only the beginning of May. I still think we have a chance if we can somehow dig ourselves out of this hole. Unlikely or not, its very early.

 

All that being said, If you want to throw in the towell, i dont think there is a need for a firesale. We HAVE a pretty darn good core.

 

1B: Lee

2B: Walker

SS: Cedeno

3B: Ramirez

LF: Murton

CF:

RF:

C: Barrett

 

SP: Z

SP: Prior

SP: Marshall

SP: Wood

SP: Maddux/Guzman/Hill/Miller

 

BP: Eyre

BP: Howry

BP: Dempster

 

Our biggest need is an outfielder. If we truely do want to throw in the towell then bring up Pie, start him. I'd assume, despite his craptacular performance thus far, one could get at least some trade value out of pierre. Maybe package him with some pitching [Wood(If he waves the ntc)/Guzman/Hill], and get a more dependable RFer.

 

Cedeno and Murton can definatley go for the right price, but if we can avoid it then I would try.

 

As far as I'm concerned, this team is two good outfielders, A healthy starting pitcher or two, and one coherant leader away from being a real force in baseball.

[YearofDaCubs]

I'm as pissed off about this slump as anyone, and as depressed as everyone. Luckily, its only the beginning of May. I still think we have a chance if we can somehow dig ourselves out of this hole. Unlikely or not, its very early.

 

All that being said, If you want to throw in the towell, i dont think there is a need for a firesale. We HAVE a pretty darn good core.

 

1B: Lee

2B: Walker

SS: Cedeno

3B: Ramirez

LF: Murton

CF:

RF:

C: Barrett

 

SP: Z

SP: Prior

SP: Marshall

SP: Wood

SP: Maddux/Guzman/Hill/Miller

 

BP: Eyre

BP: Howry

BP: Dempster

 

Our biggest need is an outfielder. If we truely do want to throw in the towell then bring up Pie, start him. I'd assume, despite his craptacular performance thus far, one could get at least some trade value out of pierre. Maybe package him with some pitching [Wood(If he waves the ntc)/Guzman/Hill], and get a more dependable RFer.

 

Cedeno and Murton can definatley go for the right price, but if we can avoid it then I would try.

 

As far as I'm concerned, this team is two good outfielders, A healthy starting pitcher or two, and one coherant leader away from being a real force in baseball.

I would love to see Pierre benched and Pie brought up from the minors even if it is for a little bit.

[A New Era]

I'm as pissed off about this slump as anyone, and as depressed as everyone. Luckily, its only the beginning of May. I still think we have a chance if we can somehow dig ourselves out of this hole. Unlikely or not, its very early.

 

All that being said, If you want to throw in the towell, i dont think there is a need for a firesale. We HAVE a pretty darn good core.

 

1B: Lee

2B: Walker

SS: Cedeno

3B: Ramirez

LF: Murton

CF: Pie or trade

RF: Big Bat via trade

C: Barrett

 

SP: Z

SP: Prior

SP: Marshall

SP: Wood

SP: Maddux/Guzman/Hill/Miller

 

BP: Eyre

BP: Howry

BP: Dempster

 

Our biggest need is an outfielder. If we truely do want to throw in the towell then bring up Pie, start him. I'd assume, despite his craptacular performance thus far, one could get at least some trade value out of pierre. Maybe package him with some pitching [Wood(If he waves the ntc)/Guzman/Hill], and get a more dependable RFer.

 

Cedeno and Murton can definatley go for the right price, but if we can avoid it then I would try.

 

As far as I'm concerned, this team is two good outfielders, A healthy starting pitcher or two, and one coherant leader away from being a real force in baseball.

 

I'd agree we need to upgrade our outfield. If we can add a big bat in the outfeild and either bring Pie up or get someone else via trade. Then those are the right moves. I would also evaluate the pitching after this season. And stop relying on injury prone pitchers, and get a top of the line starter via free agency to add to any of Zambrano, Maddux, Marshall, Miller, Prior, ect. . Whoever performs. We keep. Dump the rest via trade to get aformentioned holes filled.

 

But nothing is more important than this. We need to dump alot of people from the top. I don't want Baker, I don't want Hendry, I don't want any of the coaching staff, I don't want the personal trainer, I don't want MacPhail. Infact the only guy that I DO like, is Chris Spier. Ofcourse we cannot get rid of all of them. But replacing as many of them as possible would be a positive move for the Cubs. .

[mhuber92211]

I think that the only trades I would make at this jucture of the season are "spare parts" type that would fill a hole on an imjured but contending team. Example, Rusch to the Mets for a low level prospect. If the Mets send out Lima I am sure that they would take on Rusch who has value as a starter and swingman and could adjust easily. Another example is the Yankees and dealing Mabry or Hairston.

 

If the Cubs trade a "name" player this early it would send too many poor messages to the fan base and it would start the media talking up that Chicago is a Sox town now. Despite the forgivable fan base in Chicago, the team still has to have some drawing power.

[Backtobanks]

I would keep Marshall, Cedeno, Murton, Barrett, Dempster, everyone else can go for the right price

 

Question for all:

 

Do we overvalue Cedeno and Murton?

 

Cedeno is currently ranked 15th among shortstops in VORP, so he's middle of the pack offensively, and he's slumping right now, so he could drop into the bottom third. Defensively, his range is great, but his throwing accuracy has been a problem. He's ranked as very below average defensively by Clay Davenport's fielding metric. As the season progresses, I expect him to get past the wildness, but it may not happen.

 

His OBP has been extremely average-driven. He's in the bottom 9 in all of MLB in pitches per plate appearance, joining notorious free-swingers like Vlad Guerrero and Jeff Francoeur.

 

PECOTA projects Ronny to be worth about 3 wins above a replacement player this year. That looks good to Cubs fans because it's better than Neifi Perez, but it's not that great, either. And PECOTA doesn't see him improving much if at all over the next 5 years.

 

Murton has been a slightly below average fielder in left (his awkward fielding makes him look worse than he actually is). His OBP is great, but his slugging isn't what you want from a corner outfielder. He is among the league leaders in ground balls (last I heard, he was right behind Juan Pierre). Like Cedeno, Cubs fans support Murton because he's so much better than what we saw in LF for much of last year.

 

If Murton can keep his OBP up, he might make a good leadoff hitter, but if he's a starter, the Cubs would need to pick up some power at a position in which power is not normally expected (SS, 2B, CF, etc).

 

I don't understand why people would get on Cedeno or Murton at this point. Basically they are rookies and still learning their way around the league. At the same time, whenever I suggest trading Hill or Guzman, people emphasize that they are rookies and show great potential. I think Cedeno and Murton can be solid major league players for many years, but they aren't immune to slumps.

[cheapseats]

I would keep Marshall, Cedeno, Murton, Barrett, Dempster, everyone else can go for the right price

 

Question for all:

 

Do we overvalue Cedeno and Murton?

 

Cedeno is currently ranked 15th among shortstops in VORP, so he's middle of the pack offensively, and he's slumping right now, so he could drop into the bottom third. Defensively, his range is great, but his throwing accuracy has been a problem. He's ranked as very below average defensively by Clay Davenport's fielding metric. As the season progresses, I expect him to get past the wildness, but it may not happen.

 

His OBP has been extremely average-driven. He's in the bottom 9 in all of MLB in pitches per plate appearance, joining notorious free-swingers like Vlad Guerrero and Jeff Francoeur.

 

PECOTA projects Ronny to be worth about 3 wins above a replacement player this year. That looks good to Cubs fans because it's better than Neifi Perez, but it's not that great, either. And PECOTA doesn't see him improving much if at all over the next 5 years.

 

Murton has been a slightly below average fielder in left (his awkward fielding makes him look worse than he actually is). His OBP is great, but his slugging isn't what you want from a corner outfielder. He is among the league leaders in ground balls (last I heard, he was right behind Juan Pierre). Like Cedeno, Cubs fans support Murton because he's so much better than what we saw in LF for much of last year.

 

If Murton can keep his OBP up, he might make a good leadoff hitter, but if he's a starter, the Cubs would need to pick up some power at a position in which power is not normally expected (SS, 2B, CF, etc).

 

I don't understand why people would get on Cedeno or Murton at this point. Basically they are rookies and still learning their way around the league. At the same time, whenever I suggest trading Hill or Guzman, people emphasize that they are rookies and show great potential. I think Cedeno and Murton can be solid major league players for many years, but they aren't immune to slumps.

 

Note that I wasn't "getting on" Cedeno or Murton. The point I was making is that both are likely as good right now as they're ever going to be. They certainly aren't bad players to have on a team, but neither are players to build a team around.

 

Murton's ceiling is probably a third outfielder, and Cedeno projects to be an average shortstop. I'd love for them to prove the projections wrong, but it probably won't happen.

[goonys evil twin]

Note that I wasn't "getting on" Cedeno or Murton. The point I was making is that both are likely as good right now as they're ever going to be.

 

I mostly agreed with the notion that neither Cedeno or Murton are cornerstones and untouchable. But that 2nd sentence is nonsense. As good as they'll ever be? They're never going to improve?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Murton's ceiling is probably a third outfielder.

 

Most teams need at least 3.

[Guest]

Note that I wasn't "getting on" Cedeno or Murton. The point I was making is that both are likely as good right now as they're ever going to be.

 

I mostly agreed with the notion that neither Cedeno or Murton are cornerstones and untouchable. But that 2nd sentence is nonsense. As good as they'll ever be? They're never going to improve?

Agreed. Very few players peak in their early 20's and those that do are usually once-in-a-lifetime talents or total flameouts. Mortal players tend to show gradual improvement throughout their mid-20s.

 

Of the two players I'm most impressed with Murton. He's having a huge power drain at the moment, but his patience and selectivity at the plate bode well for his future. It's doubtful he'll ever be an elite corner outfielder unless that power really develops, but I can see him putting up Mark Grace - type numbers for quite a long time.

[goonys evil twin]

Note that I wasn't "getting on" Cedeno or Murton. The point I was making is that both are likely as good right now as they're ever going to be.

 

I mostly agreed with the notion that neither Cedeno or Murton are cornerstones and untouchable. But that 2nd sentence is nonsense. As good as they'll ever be? They're never going to improve?

Agreed. Very few players peak in their early 20's and those that do are usually once-in-a-lifetime talents or total flameouts. Mortal players tend to show gradual improvement throughout their mid-20s.

 

Of the two players I'm most impressed with Murton. He's having a huge power drain at the moment, but his patience and selectivity at the plate bode well for his future. It's doubtful he'll ever be an elite corner outfielder unless that power really develops, but I can see him putting up Mark Grace - type numbers for quite a long time.

 

.286/.375/.393 is a strange line from a corner OF. But you can't deny the value of the OBP (even if his teammates can't take advantage of it). I'd be willing to sacrifice a little of that OBP for some significant SLG improvements. But even if he is a little lacking in the power, if you can get 3 years of his service time with a little improvements on those numbers it would be a terrific bargain, compared to the veterans who would get 10-20 times his salary for next to no improvement.

 

If you took a player who was the opposite of Murton, with significantly lower OBP but higher SLG, you wouldn't be getting any more value, but you'd probably get hit higher in arbitration numbers, as those states still raise more eyebrows. I'd rather he get on 37.5% of the time and hit just 10 HR than get on 30% of the time and hit 25 HR.

[LoneStarCubFan]

Of the guys currently on the 25-man roster the only ones that should be untouchable are Ramirez and Zambrano and maybe Dempster. Everybody else should be available for the right deal.

[cheapseats]

Note that I wasn't "getting on" Cedeno or Murton. The point I was making is that both are likely as good right now as they're ever going to be.

 

I mostly agreed with the notion that neither Cedeno or Murton are cornerstones and untouchable. But that 2nd sentence is nonsense. As good as they'll ever be? They're never going to improve?

 

Actually, goony, although I usually find a lot of value in your posts, I don't in this case. So it's "nonsense" to believe Murton and Cedeno are about as good as they're going to get? Why do you project improvement?

 

PECOTA sees Murton improving from a 2.7 win player this year to a 3.1 win player next year. That's as good as he's projected to be. His power is not projected to improve significantly. He has a higher likelihood of collapse than improvement.

 

A few days ago, someone at Baseball Info Solutions identified Murt as #2 in the NL in groundballs this year, behind only Juan Pierre. Do you think he's going to start hitting more line drives in the future? If so, why?

 

Murton's greatest strength is his OBP, and unless he develops some power, it's unlikely that his OBP will get much higher than it is now. Pitchers throw more strikes to players who aren't threats (see Juan Pierre), so the value of Murton's good eye can only be maximized if he can keep pitchers honest.

 

Like I said, though, I do like the idea of Murton batting leadoff. He may not be our Youkilis, but he'd be close enough.

 

Ronny is just a little younger, and he's more difficult to predict. But the fact that he sees so few pitches in not encouraging. Plate discipline is not often learned at the major league level (see Patterson, Corey).

 

I'm rooting for them, and I'd love to see them succeed. I just don't see any reason to believe that they'll move up to higher levels of production in the future.

[goonys evil twin]

Actually, goony, although I usually find a lot of value in your posts, I don't in this case. So it's "nonsense" to believe Murton and Cedeno are about as good as they're going to get? Why do you project improvement?

 

Because he's 24 years old, and Ronny is 23. Guys improve in their early 30's, unless they suck and flameout. I'm not guaranteeing these guys will turn great, but if they stick around it will be nearly impossible for them not to improve. Your numbers at 23 and 24 are rarely the same as your numbers at 26, 27 and 28.

[cheapseats]

Actually, goony, although I usually find a lot of value in your posts, I don't in this case. So it's "nonsense" to believe Murton and Cedeno are about as good as they're going to get? Why do you project improvement?

 

Because he's 24 years old, and Ronny is 23. Guys improve in their early 30's, unless they suck and flameout. I'm not guaranteeing these guys will turn great, but if they stick around it will be nearly impossible for them not to improve. Your numbers at 23 and 24 are rarely the same as your numbers at 26, 27 and 28.

 

Peak age is something that's often debated, but I find the evidence compelling for the argument that most hitters reach their peaks at 27.

 

Will Murton develop power? Will Cedeno remember how to take pitches?

 

I'd expect to see signs of development with both sooner rather than later.

 

They'd be nice complementary players on a contending team, but seeing as the Cubs are not a contending team - and appear to be several players short of being one - I'd be willing to trade either if another club overvalues them.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I'd expect to see signs of development with both sooner rather than later.

 

How are Murton and Cedeno different than the vast majority of athletes in every sport? They are not going to peak at 24 or 25 in their 1st or 2nd year in the big leagues.