5/3 Cubs (Maddux) at Arizona (Batista) 8:40PM CSN; XM188

[cheapseats]

Oh noes! Our pen in spent. :twisted:

 

Why is Dusty so concerned about overusing his bullpen but so unconcerned about riding his starters way too hard?

 

I thought this would be worthwhile to do.

Bullpen status:

 

Last 5 games  Dempster   Eyre      Williamson   Howry   Ohman     Novoa      Rusch
May 2           DNP     1IP/17p      DNP        DNP     1IP/13p  1.1IP/31p    DNP

May 1         1IP/17p    DNP         DNP       .2IP/5p   DNP       DNP        DNP

April 30      1IP/12p   1IP/20p     2IP/28p     DNP     1IP/9p     DNP        DNP

April 29       DNP       DNP         DNP        DNP     2IP/39p  2IP/57p    2.2IP/81p

April 28       DNP      1IP/20p     1IP/14p    1IP/13p   DNP       DNP        DNP

April 27(Off)  DNP       DNP         DNP        DNP      DNP       DNP        DNP

 

Eh? Most our starters can't get beyond the 5th inning.

 

The number of innings that a pitcher throws doesn't matter. It's the number of pitches that matter. Dusty has his starters throw too many pitches.

 

You just stated why Dusty is worried about his bullpen being burnt out. Because his starters can't make it past 5 innings regardless of the pitch count. What is Dusty suppose to pull his starters after 4 innings because of pitch counts?

 

Should Dusty pull his starters after 4 innings because of pitch counts? Absolutely. If Guzman hits 90 pitches, he should be pulled, whether it's the second inning or the seventh.

 

Starter's pitch counts in the last 5 games:

 

Guzman: 104

Marshall: 90

Maddux: 89

Zambrano: 103

Rusch: 81

 

Maddux and Marshall are about right. Z should be pulled at about 100 pitches. Guzman should have been pulled at 90.

 

As for the bullpen during that time:

 

Dempster: 29

Eyre: 57

Howry: 18

Ohman: 61

Novoa: 88

Williamson: 42

 

You could make the case that Novoa is overworked, but that's it. Do you think Howry has seen too much action? Dempster? Eyre?

 

Decades of research have shown that it's much easier to throw 30 pitches three times over a five day period than it is to throw 90 pitches once in that period. Rest between appearances isn't nearly as important as limiting pitches during appearances.

[C.C.]

Oh noes! Our pen in spent. :twisted:

 

Why is Dusty so concerned about overusing his bullpen but so unconcerned about riding his starters way too hard?

 

I thought this would be worthwhile to do.

Bullpen status:

 

Last 5 games  Dempster   Eyre      Williamson   Howry   Ohman     Novoa      Rusch
May 2           DNP     1IP/17p      DNP        DNP     1IP/13p  1.1IP/31p    DNP

May 1         1IP/17p    DNP         DNP       .2IP/5p   DNP       DNP        DNP

April 30      1IP/12p   1IP/20p     2IP/28p     DNP     1IP/9p     DNP        DNP

April 29       DNP       DNP         DNP        DNP     2IP/39p  2IP/57p    2.2IP/81p

April 28       DNP      1IP/20p     1IP/14p    1IP/13p   DNP       DNP        DNP

April 27(Off)  DNP       DNP         DNP        DNP      DNP       DNP        DNP

 

Eh? Most our starters can't get beyond the 5th inning.

 

The number of innings that a pitcher throws doesn't matter. It's the number of pitches that matter. Dusty has his starters throw too many pitches.

 

You just stated why Dusty is worried about his bullpen being burnt out. Because his starters can't make it past 5 innings regardless of the pitch count. What is Dusty suppose to pull his starters after 4 innings because of pitch counts?

 

Should Dusty pull his starters after 4 innings because of pitch counts? Absolutely. If Guzman hits 90 pitches, he should be pulled, whether it's the second inning or the seventh.

 

Starter's pitch counts in the last 5 games:

 

Guzman: 104

Marshall: 90

Maddux: 89

Zambrano: 103

Rusch: 81

 

Maddux and Marshall are about right. Z should be pulled at about 100 pitches. Guzman should have been pulled at 90.

 

As for the bullpen during that time:

 

Dempster: 29

Eyre: 57

Howry: 18

Ohman: 61

Novoa: 88

Williamson: 42

 

You could make the case that Novoa is overworked, but that's it. Do you think Howry has seen too much action? Dempster? Eyre?

 

Decades of research have shown that it's much easier to throw 30 pitches three times over a five day period than it is to throw 90 pitches once in that period. Rest between appearances isn't nearly as important as limiting pitches during appearances.

 

It's a catch 22. If you have your starters going 5 innings a start your pen will be toast by June. How can you even argue that? Having starters pitch 103 and 104 pitches is not a big deal. They are both power pitchers and they tend to have higher pitch counts. How could you fault Dusty for letting starters pitch 103 pitches? I mean if a starter can't pitch that many pitches they shouldn't be starting...

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The good news is, that the Cubs have not lost back-to-back games this season since they lost 2 in a row.

 

Excellent stats Pedro. Keep it up.

 

Not a problem. Here's another: The Cubs are 1-0 on every day where they scored more runs than they allowed the other team to score.

[Andy]

2006 NSBB Game Thread Rotation

 

 

Game Thread Starter: sweetpeteman (0-0)

 

On-Deck: cubscott34 (0-0)

 

 

B

CaliforniaRaisin

I'm a little lost here, I started the thread last time cubscott34 was up just a couple of days ago so wouldn't it technically still be his turn until he starts one that we lose?

[cheapseats]

 

It's a catch 22. If you have your starters going 5 innings a start your pen will be toast by June. How can you even argue that? Having starters pitch 103 and 104 pitches is not a big deal. They are both power pitchers and they tend to have higher pitch counts. How could you fault Dusty for letting starters pitch 103 pitches? I mean if a starter can't pitch that many pitches they shouldn't be starting...

 

If you want to believe what you want to believe without basing it on any evidence, I can't change your mind.

 

Look at the numbers TT posted. Our starters have averaged slightly LESS than 5 innings per game during the last 5 starts. During that same period of time, we have guys in our bullpen who have thrown less than 30 pitches. Our bullpen is not overworked. If anything, some guys are not getting enough work. There's no need to worry about them being "toast" by June.

 

Again, the evidence shows that throwing too many pitches in an outing leads to pitching injuries. The evidence does not show that extra rest between outings prevents injuries. There's no way that Angel Guzman should be throwing 100+ pitches after pitching 18 innings in all of 2005.

[C.C.]

 

It's a catch 22. If you have your starters going 5 innings a start your pen will be toast by June. How can you even argue that? Having starters pitch 103 and 104 pitches is not a big deal. They are both power pitchers and they tend to have higher pitch counts. How could you fault Dusty for letting starters pitch 103 pitches? I mean if a starter can't pitch that many pitches they shouldn't be starting...

 

If you want to believe what you want to believe without basing it on any evidence, I can't change your mind.

 

Look at the numbers TT posted. Our starters have averaged slightly LESS than 5 innings per game during the last 5 starts. During that same period of time, we have guys in our bullpen who have thrown less than 30 pitches. Our bullpen is not overworked. If anything, some guys are not getting enough work. There's no need to worry about them being "toast" by June.

 

Again, the evidence shows that throwing too many pitches in an outing leads to pitching injuries. The evidence does not show that extra rest between outings prevents injuries. There's no way that Angel Guzman should be throwing 100+ pitches after pitching 18 innings in all of 2005.

 

"Our bullpen is not overworked."

 

Well, not yet, it's been a month. Give it another month or two and they will be. It's funny how you think that the pen is not overworked but the starters are? I guess you see what you want to see. Again a power pitcher pitching 100 pitches is not over-worked in my book. Again if they can't pitch past the 5th inning with 100 pitches then they shouldn't be starters. Buehrle pitched 108 pitches yesterday, Vasquez pitched 100 pitches the day before, and Garland pitched 109 pitches before him! Is Ozzie overworking his starters? Gimme a break! I mean you aren't honestly saying that 100 pitches is too much for a starter to pitch are you?

[nick23]

I think that if the cubs felt Guzman couldn't give them 100 pitches they wouldn't have called him up. It's pretty rediculious to criticize Dusty for not pulling Guzman at the 90 pitch mark.

[C.C.]

I think that if the cubs felt Guzman couldn't give them 100 pitches they wouldn't have called him up. It's pretty rediculious to criticize Dusty for not pulling Guzman at the 90 pitch mark.

 

I couldn't agree more!

[soccer10k]

The good news is, that the Cubs have not lost back-to-back games this season since they lost 2 in a row.

 

Excellent stats Pedro. Keep it up.

 

Not a problem. Here's another: The Cubs are 1-0 on every day where they scored more runs than they allowed the other team to score.

 

The Cubs are undefeated on days that a game isn't scheduled.

[cubbyvirus00]

I think its dumb to think 100 pitches are really a whole lot.

 

 

Whatever happened to the old schoolers? Whatever happened to the old days when pitchers actually pitched instead of sat on the DL and cried about being hurt?

 

Wood, Prior, Burnett, Pavano, Beckett are just a few that come to mind that have spent ALOT of time on the DL and in simulated games.

 

I think athletes as a whole in all sports are becoming soft. Honestly, that is why our era of sports in my opinion is weak.

[Jon]

"Our bullpen is not overworked."

 

Well, not yet, it's been a month. Give it another month or two and they will be. It's funny how you think that the pen is not overworked but the starters are? I guess you see what you want to see. Again a power pitcher pitching 100 pitches is not over-worked in my book. Again if they can't pitch past the 5th inning with 100 pitches then they shouldn't be starters. Buehrle pitched 108 pitches yesterday, Vasquez pitched 100 pitches the day before, and Garland pitched 109 pitches before him! Is Ozzie overworking his starters? Gimme a break! I mean you aren't honestly saying that 100 pitches is too much for a starter to pitch are you?

How can you compare Buehrle (241+ IP average over the past two seasons), Vasquez (207.1 IP average over the past two seasons), and Garland (219 IP average over the past two seasons) to Angel Guzman (33 IP average over the past two seasons or 26.2 IP average above rookie ball)?

[Fred Hornkohl]

Starting pitchers counts in 2006.......

 

AVG     91.60
MAX       114
MIN        53
STD     13.59

 

in 2005......

 

AVG     97.70
MAX       136
MIN        45
STD     17.46

 

in 2004.....

 

AVG     99.06
MAX       131
MIN        36
STD     16.40

 

I don't have the data reaily available for 2003, but the average that year was over 100.

[C.C.]

"Our bullpen is not overworked."

 

Well, not yet, it's been a month. Give it another month or two and they will be. It's funny how you think that the pen is not overworked but the starters are? I guess you see what you want to see. Again a power pitcher pitching 100 pitches is not over-worked in my book. Again if they can't pitch past the 5th inning with 100 pitches then they shouldn't be starters. Buehrle pitched 108 pitches yesterday, Vasquez pitched 100 pitches the day before, and Garland pitched 109 pitches before him! Is Ozzie overworking his starters? Gimme a break! I mean you aren't honestly saying that 100 pitches is too much for a starter to pitch are you?

How can you compare Buehrle (241+ IP average over the past two seasons), Vasquez (207.1 IP average over the past two seasons), and Garland (219 IP average over the past two seasons) to Angel Guzman (33 IP average over the past two seasons or 26.2 IP average above rookie ball)?

 

I'm not comparing Guzman to anybody. I'm just replying to the thread that said Dusty is over working our starting staff and I'm saying he's not. As for Guzman? If he can't pitch 100 pitches he doesn't belong in the majors. Can you agree with me on that?

[Jon]

"Our bullpen is not overworked."

 

Well, not yet, it's been a month. Give it another month or two and they will be. It's funny how you think that the pen is not overworked but the starters are? I guess you see what you want to see. Again a power pitcher pitching 100 pitches is not over-worked in my book. Again if they can't pitch past the 5th inning with 100 pitches then they shouldn't be starters. Buehrle pitched 108 pitches yesterday, Vasquez pitched 100 pitches the day before, and Garland pitched 109 pitches before him! Is Ozzie overworking his starters? Gimme a break! I mean you aren't honestly saying that 100 pitches is too much for a starter to pitch are you?

How can you compare Buehrle (241+ IP average over the past two seasons), Vasquez (207.1 IP average over the past two seasons), and Garland (219 IP average over the past two seasons) to Angel Guzman (33 IP average over the past two seasons or 26.2 IP average above rookie ball)?

 

I'm not comparing Guzman to anybody. I'm just replying to the thread that said Dusty is over working our starting staff and I'm saying he's not. As for Guzman? If he can't pitch 100 pitches he doesn't belong in the majors. Can you agree with me on that?

Ozzie isn't exactly known for his good starting pitcher management. I remember a couple of years ago when he wanted his guys to be throwing complete games right out of spring training.

 

And Angel should not have been brought up when he did. He should have been brought up now for Rusch, but there's still no reason he should be throwing 104 pitches. He's not really ready yet and pushing him unnecessarily can have bad consequences. Thankfully, he shouldn't be up for long, but they shouldn't be that desperate for a few extra innings in the few starts he'll make in this stint with the Cubs. It's irresponsible.

[cheapseats]

We can quibble over the number of pitches that should be the upper limit. Some people think that 105 is a reasonable limit for young pitchers. Some think it should be 90-95. Some think that keeping the pitches under 110 is fine. Some think that older pitcher can handle up to 120.

 

The point is that it's the pitches per appearance that matter. It's not the number of appearances.

 

In a week in which starters averaged less than five innings, we had Dempster appear in two games and throw 29 pitches. Bob Howry appeared in two games and thew 18 pitches. Scott Williamson only threw 42 pitches.

 

Give it another month or two? If our starters can make it deeper into games, the pen will get even less use than they are getting right now.

 

What do you mean by a "power pitcher?" If you mean hard throwers, those are exactly the ones who should be monitored.

 

To clarify, you have no problem with a starter throwing 110 pitches, but you think that relievers get worn out throwing 25 pitches an appearance every two or three days?

[C.C.]

"Our bullpen is not overworked."

 

Well, not yet, it's been a month. Give it another month or two and they will be. It's funny how you think that the pen is not overworked but the starters are? I guess you see what you want to see. Again a power pitcher pitching 100 pitches is not over-worked in my book. Again if they can't pitch past the 5th inning with 100 pitches then they shouldn't be starters. Buehrle pitched 108 pitches yesterday, Vasquez pitched 100 pitches the day before, and Garland pitched 109 pitches before him! Is Ozzie overworking his starters? Gimme a break! I mean you aren't honestly saying that 100 pitches is too much for a starter to pitch are you?

How can you compare Buehrle (241+ IP average over the past two seasons), Vasquez (207.1 IP average over the past two seasons), and Garland (219 IP average over the past two seasons) to Angel Guzman (33 IP average over the past two seasons or 26.2 IP average above rookie ball)?

 

I'm not comparing Guzman to anybody. I'm just replying to the thread that said Dusty is over working our starting staff and I'm saying he's not. As for Guzman? If he can't pitch 100 pitches he doesn't belong in the majors. Can you agree with me on that?

Ozzie isn't exactly known for his good starting pitcher management. I remember a couple of years ago when he wanted his guys to be throwing complete games right out of spring training.

 

And Angel should not have been brought up when he did. He should have been brought up now for Rusch, but there's still no reason he should be throwing 104 pitches. He's not really ready yet and pushing him unnecessarily can have bad consequences. Thankfully, he shouldn't be up for long, but they shouldn't be that desperate for a few extra innings in the few starts he'll make in this stint with the Cubs. It's irresponsible.

 

"Ozzie isn't exactly known for his good starting pitcher management. "

 

Well he did win a World Series with his starting pitching last year, so he must be doing something right. Sorry I just don't see pitching 104 pitches irresponsible. Again (and for the last time) if you can't pitch 100 pitches you shouldn't be starting.

[C.C.]

"what do you mean by a "power pitcher?" If you mean hard throwers, those are exactly the ones who should be monitored. "

 

I meant that power pitchers or high stikeout pitches tend to pitch more pitches per innings...

[cheapseats]

 

I'm not comparing Guzman to anybody. I'm just replying to the thread that said Dusty is over working our starting staff and I'm saying he's not. As for Guzman? If he can't pitch 100 pitches he doesn't belong in the majors. Can you agree with me on that?

 

Although Dusty has overworked his starters in the past, 2003 being the most famous example, the point was more about the bullpen than the starters.

 

Our bullpen is far from overworked. In fact, some guys are going so long between appearances that they're not sharp.

[goonys evil twin]

 

I'm not comparing Guzman to anybody. I'm just replying to the thread that said Dusty is over working our starting staff and I'm saying he's not. As for Guzman? If he can't pitch 100 pitches he doesn't belong in the majors. Can you agree with me on that?

 

Although Dusty has overworked his starters in the past, 2003 being the most famous example, the point was more about the bullpen than the starters.

 

Our bullpen is far from overworked. In fact, some guys are going so long between appearances that they're not sharp.

 

It's nearly impossible to overwork a 7 man bullpen. You could overwork 1 or 2 guys by continually going to them in every situation, but the pen itself isn't going to get overworked with so many bodies.

[gflore34]

I think its dumb to think 100 pitches are really a whole lot.

 

 

Whatever happened to the old schoolers? Whatever happened to the old days when pitchers actually pitched instead of sat on the DL and cried about being hurt?

 

Wood, Prior, Burnett, Pavano, Beckett are just a few that come to mind that have spent ALOT of time on the DL and in simulated games.

 

I think athletes as a whole in all sports are becoming soft. Honestly, that is why our era of sports in my opinion is weak.

 

On the topic of old school I heard a Fergie Jenkins interview, on days of his starts, he used to throw, get this, 100 pitches in the bullpen session prior to game.

[cheapseats]

 

I'm not comparing Guzman to anybody. I'm just replying to the thread that said Dusty is over working our starting staff and I'm saying he's not. As for Guzman? If he can't pitch 100 pitches he doesn't belong in the majors. Can you agree with me on that?

 

Although Dusty has overworked his starters in the past, 2003 being the most famous example, the point was more about the bullpen than the starters.

 

Our bullpen is far from overworked. In fact, some guys are going so long between appearances that they're not sharp.

 

It's nearly impossible to overwork a 7 man bullpen. You could overwork 1 or 2 guys by continually going to them in every situation, but the pen itself isn't going to get overworked with so many bodies.

 

Exactly. Yet we hear baseball announcers (in general, not specifically Len and Bob) worry more about overworked bullpens than overworked starters.

 

Did Dusty use Wuertz too much in the first half of 2005? Probably, but it's not because he had no choice.

[C.C.]

 

I'm not comparing Guzman to anybody. I'm just replying to the thread that said Dusty is over working our starting staff and I'm saying he's not. As for Guzman? If he can't pitch 100 pitches he doesn't belong in the majors. Can you agree with me on that?

 

Although Dusty has overworked his starters in the past, 2003 being the most famous example, the point was more about the bullpen than the starters.

 

Our bullpen is far from overworked. In fact, some guys are going so long between appearances that they're not sharp.

 

It's nearly impossible to overwork a 7 man bullpen. You could overwork 1 or 2 guys by continually going to them in every situation, but the pen itself isn't going to get overworked with so many bodies.

 

That's not true! If your starters are averaging only 5 innings a start you will overwork a bullpen. Out of a 7 man bullpen only 2-3 of those get consistent work.

[cheapseats]

 

I'm not comparing Guzman to anybody. I'm just replying to the thread that said Dusty is over working our starting staff and I'm saying he's not. As for Guzman? If he can't pitch 100 pitches he doesn't belong in the majors. Can you agree with me on that?

 

Although Dusty has overworked his starters in the past, 2003 being the most famous example, the point was more about the bullpen than the starters.

 

Our bullpen is far from overworked. In fact, some guys are going so long between appearances that they're not sharp.

 

It's nearly impossible to overwork a 7 man bullpen. You could overwork 1 or 2 guys by continually going to them in every situation, but the pen itself isn't going to get overworked with so many bodies.

 

That's not true! If your starters are averaging only 5 innings a start you will overwork a bullpen. Out of a 7 man bullpen only 2-3 of those get consistent work.

 

Over the last 5 games, our starters averaged LESS than 5 innings a game. Which of our relievers were overworked during that time?

[C.C.]

 

I'm not comparing Guzman to anybody. I'm just replying to the thread that said Dusty is over working our starting staff and I'm saying he's not. As for Guzman? If he can't pitch 100 pitches he doesn't belong in the majors. Can you agree with me on that?

 

Although Dusty has overworked his starters in the past, 2003 being the most famous example, the point was more about the bullpen than the starters.

 

Our bullpen is far from overworked. In fact, some guys are going so long between appearances that they're not sharp.

 

It's nearly impossible to overwork a 7 man bullpen. You could overwork 1 or 2 guys by continually going to them in every situation, but the pen itself isn't going to get overworked with so many bodies.

 

That's not true! If your starters are averaging only 5 innings a start you will overwork a bullpen. Out of a 7 man bullpen only 2-3 of those get consistent work.

 

Over the last 5 games, our starters averaged LESS than 5 innings a game. Which of our relievers were overworked during that time?

 

Your missing the point! It's April! No starter or relievers are overworked at this point, but common sense is if our starters can't average more then 5 innings a start the pen will be overworked! Why can't you see that?

[cheapseats]

 

Your missing the point! It's April! No starter or relievers are overworked at this point, but common sense is if our starters can't average more then 5 innings a start the pen will be overworked! Why can't you see that?

 

No, you're missing the point.

 

Right now is the worst case scenario. If what has happened over the last 5 days were to continue to happen for the rest of the season, there's no reason anyone in a 7-man bullpen should be overworked.

 

For some reason, you think Angel Guzman should be fine throwing 105 pitches every five days, but you worry that if Dempster had to throw 29 pitches every five days.

 

Not a single reliever has thrown more than 90 pitches in the past five days, but you say that the bullpen will get burned out at this rate. Yet you say pitchers shouldn't start unless they can throw 100 pitches.

 

Your position makes no sense in light of the fact that research shows it's easier on a pitcher to throw fewer pitches with more frequent appearances than it is to throw more pitches with longer periods of rest.