Is Our Defensive Alignment All Wrong?

[Rob]

Call me crazy if you must, but I think our outfield defense, while good, could be performing to a much higher level if we just shuffled the players around.

 

JJ seems like he could handle center without much trouble at all. If memory serves me right, he was worth about 13 runs over average in right field last year. The transiton between right and center certainly wont be costing us more than that.

 

And I just can't get over what a difference it make in Scott Podsednik's game to move him to left field. He went from being 10 runs worse than average in center to 11 runs better than average in right. While that's too much of a swing to assume all of it was real, it does make sense in our case. Pierre has tons of speed but gets bad jumps and takes bad routes to balls, and his arm could barely let him throw a tissue into a garbage can from 3 feet away. Left field being less spacious would allow him to get away with those bad jumps and routes and still be able to cover everything, and it would keep him from having to show off his arm on such long throws.

 

Murton would obviously be the one left out. He does have the range to play right, but his arm would be decidedly worse than average for a right fielder. I just don't think it would make nearly as much of a difference on him moving from left to right as it would for Pierre from center to left though.

 

Thoughts?

[SouthSideRyan]

I was just reading earlier today that the Cubs were ranked first in defensive efficiency thus far this season. The negative of Jones to CF would offset the positive of Pierre to LF. Just as Podsednik had a ~20 run swing going one way moving from CF to a corner, Jones would swing the other way. Really seems like shuffling the deck chairs to me for no reason. You get a worse arm in RF, a worse arm in LF and a good arm in CF is the only real difference.

 

It would seem to me that a LF would have more throws throughout the season than a CF would, and while I think Pierre is overrated by mainstream analysts defensively, I don't think he's much below average which I don't see Jones as being any better than.

[soccer10k]

I agree. I don't think switching around the outfield would do much.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I was just reading earlier today that the Cubs were ranked first in defensive efficiency thus far this season. The negative of Jones to CF would offset the positive of Pierre to LF. Just as Podsednik had a ~20 run swing going one way moving from CF to a corner, Jones would swing the other way. Really seems like shuffling the deck chairs to me for no reason. You get a worse arm in RF, a worse arm in LF and a good arm in CF is the only real difference.

 

It would seem to me that a LF would have more throws throughout the season than a CF would, and while I think Pierre is overrated by mainstream analysts defensively, I don't think he's much below average which I don't see Jones as being any better than.

 

The way I see it:

 

As a LF: Jones > Murton > Pierre

 

As a CF: Jones > Pierre > Murton

 

As a RF: Jones > Murton > Pierre

 

So, you basically would be shuffling them around, except Jones' abilities would be accentuated more being able to help in both gaps. At the beginning of the offseason I didn't mind going after Jones as a CF, and I still don't. I don't think you'd ever see this though.

 

On a tangent: does Podsednik throw left handed?

[Rob]

I was just reading earlier today that the Cubs were ranked first in defensive efficiency thus far this season. The negative of Jones to CF would offset the positive of Pierre to LF. Just as Podsednik had a ~20 run swing going one way moving from CF to a corner, Jones would swing the other way. Really seems like shuffling the deck chairs to me for no reason. You get a worse arm in RF, a worse arm in LF and a good arm in CF is the only real difference.

 

Yeah, I know we're tops in Def. Eff, but that seems flukish to me, doesn't it? Besides, with DLee dropping out for awhile, we should be looking to upgrade our defense in any way possible.

 

Oh, and the numbers I found said moving from right to center cost about .2 runs per season, though they were sandwiched in the def. spectrum by moves costing 3.7 and 4.5 runs, so it would probably be about 4.1 runs. By contrast, Podesednik had a 21 run switch. Oh, and LF and RF is about .5 runs different.

 

I know it's kinda strange, but it does make sense to some degree. The numbers bear it out a bit, it makes some sense from evaluating personal traits, and there's the best kind of evidence... anecdotal! :lol:

[Rob]

On a tangent: does Podsednik throw left handed?

 

Yup

[EricG]

Maybe Jones will be the CF next year when they trade for Cabrera or Abreu and let Pierre walk.

[biittner77]

Maybe Jones will be the CF next year when they trade for Cabrera or Abreu and let Pierre walk.

 

It really depends on how they feel about leadoff. If they think Cedeno can leadoff or if they can find a 2nd baseman that can leadoff then it will be Murton, Pie and Jones.