Cub draft picks outside 1st Round since 1987

[Diffusion]

Cub drafts 1987-2005, Round 2 onwards

MLB career featuring ERA < 4.50 (min 150 IP) or OPS > .730 (min 500 PA)

 

Dontrelle Willis (2000, 8th round)

Eric Hinske (1998, 17th round)

Justin Speier (1995, 55th round)

Kyle Farnsworth (1994, 47th round)

Brant Brown (1992, 3rd round)

Terry Adams (1991, 4th round)

Steve Trachsel (1991, 8th round)

Jon Lieber (1991, 9th round)

Matt Franco (1987, 7th round)

 

A short and very unimpressive list, no?

 

You're talking about 1039 draft picks over 19 drafts, and the Cubs have just 9 players that have gone on to have useful careers to show for all that (assuming my definition of a useful career is a fair one, and personally I don't think my requirements are particularly stringent). And 3 of them came within 5 picks of each other in 1 draft!

 

Compare this to the five other teams in the NL Central today, same criteria...

 

CARDINALS

Dan Haren (2001, 2nd round)

Coco Crisp (1999, 7th round)

Albert Pujols (1999, 13th round)

Rick Ankiel (1997, 2nd round)

Chris Richard (1995, 19th round)

Cliff Politte (1995, 54th round)

Placido Polanco (1994, 19th round)

T.J. Mathews (1992, 32nd round)

John Mabry (1991, 6th round)

John Frascatore (1991, 24th round)

Rheal Cormier (1988, 6th round)

Jeremy Hernandez (1987, 2nd round)

Ray Lankford (1987, 3rd round)

[A very strong list]

 

ASTROS

Jason Lane (1999, 6th round)

Morgan Ensberg (1998, 9th round)

Keith Ginter (1998, 10th round)

Eric Brynes (1997, 4th round)

Wade Miller (1996, 20th round)

Roy Oswalt (1996, 23rd round)

Julio Lugo (1994, 43rd round)

Jaime Walker (1993, 10th round)

Shane Reynolds (1989, 3rd round)

Luis Gonzalez (1988, 4th round)

Kenny Lofton (1988, 17th round)

Al Osuna (1987, 16th round)

Darryl Kile (1987, 30th round)

[What a sensational list, simply off the charts]

 

REDS

Ben Broussard (1999, 2nd round)

Adam Dunn (1998, 2nd round)

BJ Ryan (1998, 17th round)

Scott Williamson (1997, 9th round)

Jason LaRue (1995, 5th round)

Ray King (1995, 8th round)

Aaron Boone (1994, 3rd round)

John Riedling (1994, 22nd round)

Scott Sullivan (1993, 2nd round)

Chad Fox (1992, 23rd round)

Trevor Hoffman (1989, 11th round)

Reggie Sanders (1987, 7th round)

Butch Henry (1987, 15th round)

[Very strong list again]

 

PIRATES

Chris Shelton (2001, 33rd round)

Chris Young (2000, 3rd round)

Dave Williams (1998, 17th round)

Rob Mackowiak (1996, 53rd round)

Marc Wilkins (1992, 47th round)

Kevin Young (1990, 7th round)

Brian Shouse (1990, 13th round)

Rick White (1990, 15th round)

Mark Johnson (1990, 20th round)

Steve Cooke (1989, 35th round)

Blas Minor (1988, 6th round)

Tim Wakefield (1988, 8th round)

Randy Tomlin (1988, 18th round)

[Not much top notch talent, but decent depth]

 

BREWERS

Bill Hall (1998, 6th round)

Ronnie Belliard (1994, 8th round)

Mark Loretta (1993, 7th round)

Jeff Cirillo (1991, 11th round)

Troy O'Leary (1987, 13th round)

[Ouch. That's awful]

 

I think from that it's pretty clear that the Cubs' list is a weak one, one completely outclassed by the Astros', Cardinals' and Reds' lists, although one nowhere near as pathetic as the Brewers', and probably better than the Pirates' too.

 

Why? Why have the Cubs had such difficulty getting players from the draft to the major leagues? Poor scouting or poor player development? A combination of both?

 

And what does this mean for the futures of the following: Grant Johnson, Eric Patterson and Sean Gallagher (2004), Sean Marshall (2003), Brian Dopirak, Justin Jones, Billy Petrick, Rich Hill and Sergio Mitre (2002), and indeed the 2005 draft class?

 

Is it really worth the Cubs spending money on these kind of draft picks? Would they not be better off trying to sign first round talents that drop due to signability concerns? Or perhaps better off just concentrating on signing more international free agents? It's pretty clear that once the first round talents are gone, it's slim pickings, and the Cubs aren't getting any of them anyway.

[BeerHere]

Wow very interesting.

 

I remember some time ago that the cubs had a program in latin america that brought in a couple prospects, I think Pie came through the program. Isn't this where Cedeno came from, and Z? It seems like the club would be better off by developing talent in Venezuela, DR etc. The draft is a total crapshoot IMO. For every Roy Oswalt, there are a thousand Ben Christiansen's of the world.

[putmeincoach]

I would put the Cubs' list in the middle of the pack, which is, in my opinion, a clear reflection on the performance of the team over those years. When you look outside of the first few rounds, it all becomes a numbers game. Around 1200 players are drafted, the elite make up the first 40 or so, which leaves, depending on your take, let's say 1000 other draftees who are all good college players. It's also a matter of timing, from being a backup to being traded.

I believe most of the players drafted, other than those in the first few rounds, don't have huge signing bonuses and also live on only a few thousand dollars a month, at the most. "Worth spending the money", I was nder the impressionthat the Cubs had one of the strongest financial backings, which would make it worthwhile. As I had stated earlier, it's a numbers game with the players drafted later on and eventually it should pay off. You mention "what happens to all these players", every team has a list similar to this one, and there are only a limited number of spots in the bigs.

Also, we all know what happens with those who have signability problems, there are problems with these palyers, which teams and management do not like to deal with. So in my opinion, let them slide.

[Balsa]

Wow. Very interesting. And very telling as well.

 

Didn't the Cubs just get a new guy for scouting draft picks though? Let's hope he does a better job than this. Ouch. Oh well, as always, at least we're not the Brewers. :lol:

[CubsMinorLeagueReport]

I would be interested in seeing how the Blue Jays did in this category when Tim Wilken was there.

 

care to humor me?

 

Thanks in advance...

[Diffusion]

BLUE JAYS

David Bush (2002, 2nd round)

Reed Johnson (1999, 17th round)

Jay Gibbons (1998, 14th round)

Michael Young (1997, 5th round)

Orlando Hudson (1997, 43rd round)

Casey Blake (1996, 7th round)

Josh Phelps (1996, 10th round)

Craig Wilson (1995, 2nd round)

Ryan Freel (1995, 10th round)

Tim Crabtree (1992, 2nd round)

Chris Stynes (1991, 3rd round)

Ben Weber (1991, 20th round)

Jon Olerud (1989, 3rd round)

Jeff Kent (1989, 20th round)

Dave Weathers (1988, 3rd round)

Woody Williams (1988, 28th round)

Derek Bell (1987, 2nd round)

Mike Timlin (1987, 5th round)

Ryan Thompson (1987, 13th round)

Bob MacDonald (1987, 19th round)

 

I'm not sure when Wilkin became Toronto scouting director, so cut off as applicable.

[Balsa]

Wait a second this is confusing...according to an article from BP...

 

The Devil Rays astute drafting could take a hit without the guidance of former special assistant Tim Wilkin, one of the best scouting minds in the business, who took his services to the Cubs in what may be the top non-signing of the year.

[Balsa]

Wait, Baseball America has the answer:

 

Wilken spent his first year with the Devil Rays, in 2003, and the last two of his 24 years with the Blue Jays organization doing professional coverage. But when the Rays had him do some amateur coverage in 2004, Wilken realized how much he missed that aspect of his job. He was in charge of the Rays’ draft in 2005 and loved every minute of it.

 

Wilken’s track record of getting things done in Toronto was impressive. As a crosschecker (1989-94) and as scouting director (’95-2000), he played a vital role in the Jays’ streak of 12 straight first-round picks who reached the major leagues from 1988 (Ed Sprague) to 1999 (Alex Rios), with such impact players as Shannon Stewart, Roy Halladay and Vernon Wells in between.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

OK, I have a question. How in the HELL was Albert Pujols a 13th round pick? Wasn't he a monster in high school and everyone could see his potential? I don't think he went to college, so that can't be it.

 

I don't know if you can do this Diffusion, but what are the rounds for the players currently on the big league Cubs, regardless of what organization drafted them?

[rawaction]

who's had the most productive 1st rounders? I'd guess the Cubs are up there with Wood, Garland, Prior, and Patterson.

 

Eh, Cards have had Drew, Kennedy, Looper, Matt Morris, Carpenter, etc.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Cub drafts 1987-2005, Round 2 onwards

MLB career featuring ERA < 4.50 (min 150 IP) or OPS > .730 (min 500 PA)

 

Dontrelle Willis (2000, 8th round)

Eric Hinske (1998, 17th round)

Justin Speier (1995, 55th round)

Kyle Farnsworth (1994, 47th round)

Brant Brown (1992, 3rd round)

Terry Adams (1991, 4th round)

Steve Trachsel (1991, 8th round)

Jon Lieber (1991, 9th round)

Matt Franco (1987, 7th round)

 

A short and very unimpressive list, no?

 

Well, at least we've been able to keep them in our system. D'oh! Um, they brought us big name talent in trades? Uh, did anything positive come from them (aside from Alfonseca, that one's obvious)?

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Cub drafts 1987-2005, Round 2 onwards

MLB career featuring ERA < 4.50 (min 150 IP) or OPS > .730 (min 500 PA)

 

Dontrelle Willis (2000, 8th round)

Eric Hinske (1998, 17th round)

Justin Speier (1995, 55th round)

Kyle Farnsworth (1994, 47th round)

Brant Brown (1992, 3rd round)

Terry Adams (1991, 4th round)

Steve Trachsel (1991, 8th round)

Jon Lieber (1991, 9th round)

Matt Franco (1987, 7th round)

 

A short and very unimpressive list, no?

 

Well, at least we've been able to keep them in our system. D'oh! Um, they brought us big name talent in trades? Uh, did anything positive come from them (aside from Alfonseca, that one's obvious)?

 

Yes. We got all of Brown's usefulness, he was never the same after the 98 dropped ball incident, and we turned him into Jon Lieber--just in time for Lieber's 20-win season in 01. I'd say we got plenty of usefulness out of Trachsel and Farnsworth, and Adams as far as that goes. Really, when you look at that list, the only real "mistakes" were Willis of course, and to a degree the Hinske for Chiasson deal, which wouldn't have looked so bad if Chiasson didn't throw his arm out.

 

Diffusion's list is slightly misleading by the way, in that if you go back just two or three years farther, you pick up names like Grace, Palmeiro, Moyer and Maddux. My memory is likely faulty, but I don't think any of those guys were first-rounders.

[craig]

I think from that it's pretty clear that the Cubs' list is a weak one, ..

 

Why? ..

 

And what does this mean for the futures of the following: Grant Johnson, Eric Patterson and Sean Gallagher (2004), Sean Marshall (2003), Brian Dopirak, Justin Jones, Billy Petrick, Rich Hill and Sergio Mitre (2002), and indeed the 2005 draft class?

 

Is it really worth the Cubs spending money on these kind of draft picks? Would they not be better off trying to sign first round talents that drop due to signability concerns? Or perhaps better off just concentrating on signing more international free agents? It's pretty clear that once the first round talents are gone, it's slim pickings, and the Cubs aren't getting any of them anyway.

 

The odds of getting top players after the first round isn't real high. The sample size of big winners is small for everybody, and the picture is heavily influenced by a couple of big names, Pujols for Cards, Oswalt for Astros, Dontrelle for Cubs, etc..

 

Going back to 1987 enlarges the sample size, but at the same time the people who were scouting and coaching for the Cubs in 87-95 isn't very relavant to what's happened since Hendry took over and what will happen in future.

 

If a couple of people from Justin Jones, Ricky Nolasco, Sisco, Sean Marshall crowd work out as good major leaguers (which is entirely possible, barring injuries), the Cub production could look pretty favorable.

 

My point being, there is some luck to this. So you should keep trying? Also, obviously even though not many pan out, many still end up being key parts for trades. Bobby Hill was key guy for getting Aram. Brendan Harris and Justin Jones were key components in getting Murton and Nomar.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I think from that it's pretty clear that the Cubs' list is a weak one, ..

 

Why? ..

 

And what does this mean for the futures of the following: Grant Johnson, Eric Patterson and Sean Gallagher (2004), Sean Marshall (2003), Brian Dopirak, Justin Jones, Billy Petrick, Rich Hill and Sergio Mitre (2002), and indeed the 2005 draft class?

 

Is it really worth the Cubs spending money on these kind of draft picks? Would they not be better off trying to sign first round talents that drop due to signability concerns? Or perhaps better off just concentrating on signing more international free agents? It's pretty clear that once the first round talents are gone, it's slim pickings, and the Cubs aren't getting any of them anyway.

 

The odds of getting top players after the first round isn't real high. The sample size of big winners is small for everybody, and the picture is heavily influenced by a couple of big names, Pujols for Cards, Oswalt for Astros, Dontrelle for Cubs, etc..

 

Going back to 1987 enlarges the sample size, but at the same time the people who were scouting and coaching for the Cubs in 87-95 isn't very relavant to what's happened since Hendry took over and what will happen in future.

 

If a couple of people from Justin Jones, Ricky Nolasco, Sisco, Sean Marshall crowd work out as good major leaguers (which is entirely possible, barring injuries), the Cub production could look pretty favorable.

 

My point being, there is some luck to this. So you should keep trying? Also, obviously even though not many pan out, many still end up being key parts for trades. Bobby Hill was key guy for getting Aram. Brendan Harris and Justin Jones were key components in getting Murton and Nomar.

 

Right. Over a thousand kids are drafted every year. There are less than a thousand players on all the big league rosters. If the average tenure of a big leaguer is 5 years (and I think that's the approximate number), then that means there are roughly 150 jobs available in turnover every year. So really, if an organization has a hit rate of one good prospect for every six or seven picks, they are doing an outstanding job.

[Diffusion]

I don't know if you can do this Diffusion, but what are the rounds for the players currently on the big league Cubs, regardless of what organization drafted them?

 

C Michael Barrett, 1st round (Expos)

1B Derrek Lee, 1st round (Padres)

2B Todd Walker, 1st round (Twins)

3B Aramis Ramirez, international (Pirates)

SS Ronny Cedeno, international (Cubs)

LF Matt Murton, 1st round (32nd overall, Red Sox)

CF Juan Pierre, 13th round (Rockies)

RF Jacque Jones, 2nd round (37th overall, Twins)

 

C Henry Blanco, international (Dodgers)

SS Neifi Perez, international (Rockies)

2B/OF Jerry Hairston, 11th round (Orioles)

3B/OF John Mabry, 6th round (Cardinals)

OF Angel Pagan, 4th round (Mets)

1B/OF Michael Restovich, 2nd round (Twins)

OF Marquis Grissom, 3rd round (Expos)

 

SP Carlos Zambrano, international (Cubs)

SP Mark Prior, 1st round (Cubs)

SP Kerry Wood, 1st round (Cubs)

SP Greg Maddux, 2nd round (31st overall, Cubs)

SP Wade Miller, 20th round (Astros)

 

SP Jerome Williams, 1st round (Giants)

SP Angel Guzman, international (Royals)

SP Rich Hill, 4th round (Cubs)

SP Sean Marshall, 6th round (Cubs)

SP Glendon Rusch, 17th round (Brewers)

 

RP Ryan Dempster, 3rd round (Rangers)

RP Scott Eyre, 9th round (Rangers)

RP Bob Howry, 5th round (Giants)

RP Will Ohman, 8th round (Cubs)

RP Roberto Novoa, international Pirates)

RP Scott Williamson, 9th round (Reds)

RP Michael Wuertz, 11th round (Cubs)

RP Todd Wellemeyer, 4th round (Cubs)

[Outshined_One]

I remember seeing statistics done on the MLB Draft not too long ago about the rate of success per round in terms of draft picks. It pretty much turned out that the first rounder has the highest rate of success, with the probability of drafting a guy who makes the majors and sticking dropping off with every round that passes.

[roadster]

OK, I have a question. How in the HELL was Albert Pujols a 13th round pick? Wasn't he a monster in high school and everyone could see his potential? I don't think he went to college, so that can't be it.

 

I don't know if you can do this Diffusion, but what are the rounds for the players currently on the big league Cubs, regardless of what organization drafted them?

 

He went to a junior college before being drafted. He was highly touted but not that high as he was in the 80's or 90's when BA did their top 100 list before Pujols busted out in the majors.

[NorthsideAvenger]

OK, I have a question. How in the HELL was Albert Pujols a 13th round pick? Wasn't he a monster in high school and everyone could see his potential? I don't think he went to college, so that can't be it.

 

I don't know if you can do this Diffusion, but what are the rounds for the players currently on the big league Cubs, regardless of what organization drafted them?

 

Albert went to a community college in Kansas.

[goonys evil twin]

OK, I have a question. How in the HELL was Albert Pujols a 13th round pick? Wasn't he a monster in high school and everyone could see his potential? I don't think he went to college, so that can't be it.

 

I don't know if you can do this Diffusion, but what are the rounds for the players currently on the big league Cubs, regardless of what organization drafted them?

 

Albert went to a community college in Kansas.

 

They made a move loosely based on his time there:

 

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/630347148X.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

[NorthsideAvenger]

Cub drafts 1987-2005, Round 2 onwards

MLB career featuring ERA < 4.50 (min 150 IP) or OPS > .730 (min 500 PA)

 

Dontrelle Willis (2000, 8th round)

Eric Hinske (1998, 17th round)

Justin Speier (1995, 55th round)

Kyle Farnsworth (1994, 47th round)

Brant Brown (1992, 3rd round)

Terry Adams (1991, 4th round)

Steve Trachsel (1991, 8th round)

Jon Lieber (1991, 9th round)

Matt Franco (1987, 7th round)

 

A short and very unimpressive list, no?

 

You're talking about 1039 draft picks over 19 drafts, and the Cubs have just 9 players that have gone on to have useful careers to show for all that (assuming my definition of a useful career is a fair one, and personally I don't think my requirements are particularly stringent). And 3 of them came within 5 picks of each other in 1 draft!

 

Compare this to the five other teams in the NL Central today, same criteria...

 

CARDINALS

Dan Haren (2001, 2nd round)

Coco Crisp (1999, 7th round)

Albert Pujols (1999, 13th round)

Rick Ankiel (1997, 2nd round)

Chris Richard (1995, 19th round)

Cliff Politte (1995, 54th round)

Placido Polanco (1994, 19th round)

T.J. Mathews (1992, 32nd round)

John Mabry (1991, 6th round)

John Frascatore (1991, 24th round)

Rheal Cormier (1988, 6th round)

Jeremy Hernandez (1987, 2nd round)

Ray Lankford (1987, 3rd round)

[A very strong list]

 

ASTROS

Jason Lane (1999, 6th round)

Morgan Ensberg (1998, 9th round)

Keith Ginter (1998, 10th round)

Eric Brynes (1997, 4th round)

Wade Miller (1996, 20th round)

Roy Oswalt (1996, 23rd round)

Julio Lugo (1994, 43rd round)

Jaime Walker (1993, 10th round)

Shane Reynolds (1989, 3rd round)

Luis Gonzalez (1988, 4th round)

Kenny Lofton (1988, 17th round)

Al Osuna (1987, 16th round)

Darryl Kile (1987, 30th round)

[What a sensational list, simply off the charts]

 

REDS

Ben Broussard (1999, 2nd round)

Adam Dunn (1998, 2nd round)

BJ Ryan (1998, 17th round)

Scott Williamson (1997, 9th round)

Jason LaRue (1995, 5th round)

Ray King (1995, 8th round)

Aaron Boone (1994, 3rd round)

John Riedling (1994, 22nd round)

Scott Sullivan (1993, 2nd round)

Chad Fox (1992, 23rd round)

Trevor Hoffman (1989, 11th round)

Reggie Sanders (1987, 7th round)

Butch Henry (1987, 15th round)

[Very strong list again]

 

PIRATES

Chris Shelton (2001, 33rd round)

Chris Young (2000, 3rd round)

Dave Williams (1998, 17th round)

Rob Mackowiak (1996, 53rd round)

Marc Wilkins (1992, 47th round)

Kevin Young (1990, 7th round)

Brian Shouse (1990, 13th round)

Rick White (1990, 15th round)

Mark Johnson (1990, 20th round)

Steve Cooke (1989, 35th round)

Blas Minor (1988, 6th round)

Tim Wakefield (1988, 8th round)

Randy Tomlin (1988, 18th round)

[Not much top notch talent, but decent depth]

 

BREWERS

Bill Hall (1998, 6th round)

Ronnie Belliard (1994, 8th round)

Mark Loretta (1993, 7th round)

Jeff Cirillo (1991, 11th round)

Troy O'Leary (1987, 13th round)

[Ouch. That's awful]

 

I think from that it's pretty clear that the Cubs' list is a weak one, one completely outclassed by the Astros', Cardinals' and Reds' lists, although one nowhere near as pathetic as the Brewers', and probably better than the Pirates' too.

 

 

Why? Why have the Cubs had such difficulty getting players from the draft to the major leagues? Poor scouting or poor player development? A combination of both?

 

And what does this mean for the futures of the following: Grant Johnson, Eric Patterson and Sean Gallagher (2004), Sean Marshall (2003), Brian Dopirak, Justin Jones, Billy Petrick, Rich Hill and Sergio Mitre (2002), and indeed the 2005 draft class?

 

Is it really worth the Cubs spending money on these kind of draft picks? Would they not be better off trying to sign first round talents that drop due to signability concerns? Or perhaps better off just concentrating on signing more international free agents? It's pretty clear that once the first round talents are gone, it's slim pickings, and the Cubs aren't getting any of them anyway.

 

If memory serves me correct, but Adam Everett (4th rd in 1995) was drafted by the Cubs in 1995. Jon Lieber was drafted by the Cubs in the 9th rd of 1991. I know they sign and developed with other teams, but you COULD TECHNICALLY put these two players on the list of players the Cubs drafted after the 1st rd, who went on to a useful career.

[goonys evil twin]

If memory serves me correct, but Adam Everett (4th rd in 1995) was drafted by the Cubs in 1995. Jon Lieber was drafted by the Cubs in the 9th rd of 1991. I know they sign and developed with other teams, but you COULD TECHNICALLY put these two players on the list of players the Cubs drafted after the 1st rd, who went on to a useful career.

 

That would go against the whole point of making such a list though. I don't think it would make sense to list Mark Prior on a list of Yankees draftees who can't make it through spring training healthy.

[craig]

He went to a junior college before being drafted. He was highly touted but not that high as he was in the 80's or 90's when BA did their top 100 list before Pujols busted out in the majors.

 

Pujols played SS in JC, and naturally didn't scout very well there. Didn't have the arm, the speed, or the quickness. Like a lot of guys, he was a prospect with no clear defensive position ahead of him, and basically scored badly on three of the five scouting tools (speed, defense, throwing arm).

 

Still does, more or less.

 

But if you can hit like Pujols, the hitting tool trumps all.....

[Ding Dong Johnson]

If memory serves me correct, but Adam Everett (4th rd in 1995) was drafted by the Cubs in 1995. Jon Lieber was drafted by the Cubs in the 9th rd of 1991. I know they sign and developed with other teams, but you COULD TECHNICALLY put these two players on the list of players the Cubs drafted after the 1st rd, who went on to a useful career.

 

Everett has also not yet posted a 730 OPS, one of Diffusion's qualifiers for the list.

 

Edit: Lieber was on the original list.

[Derwood]

I'm curious which of these clubs have had the best success with 1st rounders. Foe every Wood or Prior we have a Montanez or Brownlie....

 

EDIT: Here's the list, unfiltered for original poster's criteria

 

87-Mike Harkey

88-Ty Griffin

89-Earl Cunningham

90-Lance Dickson

91-Doug Glanville

92-Derrek Wallace

93-Brooks Kieschnick

94-Jayson Peterson

95-Kerry Wood

96-Todd Noel

97-Jon Garland

98-Corey Patterson

99-Ben Christiansen

00-Luis Montanez

01-Mark Prior

02-Bobby Brownlie

03-Ryan Harvey

04-No Pick

05-Mark Pawalek

 

I think with a few notable exceptions, the Cubs have come up woefully short on converting 1st round picks into anything remotely useful, and to me that's more of a condemnation of their scouting/development than the late round picks

[Monco]

8 of the last 11,9 of the last 12 if you count Grant Johnson in 04 were pitchers.Theres a higher chance of them getting hurt before making it.