Rumor - Murton for Soriano?

[CubfaninCA]

Considering 3 & 4 is where teams put their most productive hitters, the leadoff spots pretty important.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing the importance of a leadoff hitter. However, what I think people are arguing is what is important to have in a leadoff hitter. Running fast isn't at the top of the list. Getting on base is. If Pierre doesn't hit over .300, his OBP won't be all that great. The only other thing he provides is speed, and I don't care how fast he can run, his speed is worthless if he's not on base to use it.

 

Pierre is a decent leadoff hitter. He's shown that there are seasons where he can be among the league's best table-setters. He's also had two seasons where he probably would have been better off batting eighth. Regardless, he's an improvement over Neifi Perez and the 2005 version of Corey Patterson. But I would have been just as happy had the Cubs plugged Walker into the leadoff spot, pencilled Murton in as the #2 hitter, and overpaid for a better right-fielder either via trade or free agency.

 

As for the Murton vs. Pierre issue, I think there's a very good chance that Murton could outproduce Pierre in 2006...if he's given 500+ plate appearances.

 

This is all moot though. If the Cubs are going to contend, they need decent years out of both players.

 

Well put. Pierre has had over 700 plate appearances in each of the last 3 years and he's scored no more than 100 runs in any of those years. He's had Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Delgado and Todd Helton hitting behind him during that span.

 

He's durable, I'll give him that. But, anyone who can supply a respectable OBP at the top of the order can score 100 runs, speed or no speed, in 700 plate appearances.

 

Grady Sizemore scored 1 more run than Pierre last year in 120 less plate appearances. Grady probably possesses speed more like Murton than Pierre. David Dellucci had 426 plate appearances in the lead off spot last year, and scored 76 times. That's 275 less plate appearances than Pierre. Dellucci is slower than molasses.

 

Who will ever forget Mark Bellhorn's run at the lead off spot back in 2002, when he scored 48 runs in just 250 plate appearances. That's almost 1/3 of the trips to the plate as Pierre last year, or the year before that, or even the year before that. Bellhorn is probably slower than Dellucci.

 

The Cubs used Todd Walker as a lead off hitter in 2004. He had 260 plate appearances and 45 runs scored. Given another 440 plate appearances to equal 700 like Pierre, I don't think it's a stretch to think Walker might have been able to achieve 100. We all know how fast Walker is. Walker isn't as durable as Pierre, I'll give you that. And he is on the wrong side of 30. Walker got next to no at bats in the lead off spot in 2005 after doing a tremendous job in 2004. Meanwhile, pathetic excuse of a lead off hitter after another ran out there day after day. I have no doubt Murton would have been better than most of them. Speed is nice. But, I see no evidence that Pierre's speed creates more production than a less speedy guy who can hit for more power and get on base at a higher percentage.

 

Getting on base for a lead off hitter is priority #1. Staying on base so that the big boppers can bring you in is priority #2.

 

I don't dislike Pierre. I'm just not all that enamored with him. Pierre and Walker at the top of the order could be a nice tandem for our production team of Lee and Ramirez. But, would it be more productive than Matt Murton hitting 1st and Walker hitting 2nd? Murton was on pace to score close to 90 runs hitting mostly at the bottom of the order of a really bad offensive team last year in 700 plate appearances.

 

Walker 2.5m, Murton 350K, Pierre 6m. I like Pierre in general, but he's overpriced, I felt we overpaid in talent to get him, and he wasn't the biggest need on this team. Overall improvement in OBP was the major need of this team, and they traded for a guy fresh off a .326 OBP season. He doesn't draw walks, and this team needs guys who can draw walks AND provide quality offensive production.

 

Pierre & Walker > Murton & Walker. Great speed can throw some pitcher's off rhythm. This is especially beneficial at the beginning of a game.

[frostwyrm]

I think when I look back at this year, I'll look to the same thing as last year -- the pitching health. If we get fully healthy years from Prior, Z & Wood I think we'll be very happy at the end of the year. If we don't get healthy years from those guys, I don't think the offense is going to matter much.

 

The best reason I can think of for stressing "guys who can catch the ball" is to reduce the number of pitches those guys have to throw per game.

 

Or you could throw gobs of cash at middle relief and hope it lets the manager pull the SP's earlier.

[A New Era]

 

Pierre & Walker > Murton & Walker. Great speed can throw some pitcher's off rhythm. This is especially beneficial at the beginning of a game.

 

I agree, this is something BBB is overlooking. Now I am just a casual fan, haven't been watching alot until I got back into it 2 years ago. But I beleive in the thought that a pesky guy at first can cause the pitcher and middle defense to make some mistakes. Because they are thinking even a little thought about him taking off, their concentration then is divided. Causing them to possibly loose concentration, and not throw the ball as well.

 

I don't have years of experience "observing" this, but I look foward to seeing if it really is true by watching Pierre this year. Derrick Lee beleives the same thing and he has said that in different interviews. (about pierre disrupting the picther/defense). You need to put more credit into this element Pierre brings. .

[Outshined_One]

Problem with the "throwing off a pitcher's rhythm" argument is that it's very, very, very hard to really quantify that. While I do think there is some merit to it considering that pitchers have talked about being bothered by a speedster staring them in the face at first base, you'd have to wonder if they would have made similar mistakes if a somewhat slower guy was on base.

 

However, this is one thing in particular that's noteworthy about speedsters and leadoff hitters that I think is critical. Corey Patterson showed us an important rule: you could be the fastest guy on the field, but it doesn't mean a lick if you don't know how the heck to run the bases.

 

Now, my familiarity with Juan Pierre may not be as good as it could be, but here are his SB/CS numbers from the past three years:

 

2003: 65 SB, 20 CS, Success Rate: ~76%

2004: 45 SB, 24 CS, Success Rate: ~65%

2005: 57 SB, 17 CS, Success Rate: ~77%

 

As a general rule of thumb, a guy can be considered a good base stealer if he gets caught less than 25% of the time. Pierre has had a ~73% success rate over the past three years. I'm really not sure how good of a baserunner that makes Pierre.

 

Now, I will agree that it will be nice to have a guy who can use his speed to break up double plays, go from first to third on singles, and score from first on a double on a regular basis. But, if he makes dumb decisions and runs into outs, his speed won't be worth anything.

[imb]

I'm so sick of the "distracts the pitcher" line of thought. It's so easy to say, but no one ever backs it up with any proof. Until then, I dont see any reason to believe it.

[UK1679666180]

Pierre & Walker > Murton & Walker. Great speed can throw some pitcher's off rhythm. This is especially beneficial at the beginning of a game.

 

If a pitcher is thrown for a loop b/c Pierre is on base, he's probably weak mentally and unable to handle pressure. That likely means he's not that good to begin with and lacks confidence.

 

You don't see good pitchers get rattled when a fast runner is on 1B for a reason.

 

Then, did Pierre impact the pitcher or did the weak mental state of the pitcher impact it?

 

I blame the pitcher & not credit the runner. That pitcher likely gets rattled even with a slow runner, b/c the leadoff runner and he's afraid of the big inning.

[fromthestretch]

 

Pierre & Walker > Murton & Walker. Great speed can throw some pitcher's off rhythm. This is especially beneficial at the beginning of a game.

 

I agree, this is something BBB is overlooking. Now I am just a casual fan, haven't been watching alot until I got back into it 2 years ago. But I beleive in the thought that a pesky guy at first can cause the pitcher and middle defense to make some mistakes. Because they are thinking even a little thought about him taking off, their concentration then is divided. Causing them to possibly loose concentration, and not throw the ball as well.

 

I don't have years of experience "observing" this, but I look foward to seeing if it really is true by watching Pierre this year. Derrick Lee beleives the same thing and he has said that in different interviews. (about pierre disrupting the picther/defense). You need to put more credit into this element Pierre brings. .

 

Again...how much havoc is he going to wreak if he's not on base in the first place? You can't run, or even pose the threat of running, if you don't first get on base. And as has been mentioned, Murton is capable of stealing bases, as well...not 50+ like Pierre, but certainly 15-20 and probably more if pitchers decide not to take him seriously when he's standing on first.

 

I don't think that a speedster on first will distract the pitcher as much as it may cause him to change his strategy a bit, primarily regarding pitch selection.

 

At the major league level, pitchers (and the defense) should be able to handle the fact that a fast runner is going to be on base from time-to-time. It's not like they've never been in that situation before. It's part of the game.

 

Considering the frequency with which Pierre gets caught stealing, I'd say his ability to distract pitchers isn't as good as some may think.

[noisesquared]

The one thing that Juan Pierre has that pigeonholes him as a leadoff hitter is the fact that he can't hit for power.

 

I think Pierre's lack of power works against him in several ways - the obvious lack of SLG, but also it hurts his OBP. It's hard to draw a walk if the opposition wants to throw you strikes. The opposing pitcher knows Pierre is not going to hurt you with his power and Pierre's not likely going to strike out. Therefore you throw Pierre strikes and let your defense try and get him out. Do not walk him and give him the opportunity to hurt you with his speed.

 

I think if Pierre was able to consistently hit in the neighborhood of 5-10 HR a year, his OBP would benefit greatly. Turning on a few pitches could give pitchers just enough respect to try to pitch him a little more cautiously, and hopefully give Pierre the opportunity to draw a few more BB.

[BigbadB]

Great speed can throw some pitcher's off rhythm. This is especially beneficial at the beginning of a game.

 

I'd like to believe this. Have you anything to back it up with? Pierre has never scored more than 108 runs in a season. If he was good at throwing off pitcher's rhythm, wouldn't he have an extremely high run scoring rate considering guys like Carlos Delgado, Miguel Cabrera and Todd Helton have been hitting right behind him during his career?

 

Mark Loretta scored 108 runs in 2004 hitting primarily 2nd in the Padres order. He doesn't have any speed to speak of. How can he score the same amount of runs in a season as someone like Pierre, who can throw off a pitcher's rhythm?

 

Does Pierre have some sort of special "runs scored per chances" ratio that other not so speedy high run scoring players don't?

 

I'm not against speed. I'm against sacrificing OBP for speed.

[Lefty]

I apologize Im just getting frustrated about this. My point is you cant say someone who has only played less than half a season in the pros is better than someone who is one of the best lead off hitter in baseball. I know Pierre had a bad year last year, but that doesnt mean a prospect is better than him. On the other hand I think Murton will pan out and be much better than Patterson I just dont think you can say something like that when he hasn't played enough to prove that.

 

AA and AAA are the "Pros" too. Guys who hit there, adjusted for context, hit in the major leagues too. It's possible that 2005 was Murton's career year with his excellent minor and major league numbers combined. But given his age, that is unlikely.

 

While I'm here. I spent a few days this winter with a coach on the Texas Rangers staff. I will second what was written in the paper that they thought he was a terrible defender. I saw the Texas Rangers Spring Training Instructional tape from last year, and you wouldn't believe how many times Soriano was out of position. And this tape was shown to the team when Soriano was still there. This coach assumed Kinsler would start at second. But if he flopped, this coach thought that Mark DeRosa was still an improvement over Soriano! I think he's nuts, figuratively, but this guy's job is at stake too.

[Dr. Cub]

I'm so sick of the "distracts the pitcher" line of thought. It's so easy to say, but no one ever backs it up with any proof. Until then, I dont see any reason to believe it.

 

I have my doubts as to the level of havoc it causes being anything but minimal, but MLB pitchers have commented on the fact that they sometimes pitch differently or pay too much attention to the runner. The fact that I love my wife and child is no less true because I can't show proof that I do.

[Lefty]

Pierre's more valuable than Murton. I think the obvious indicator is that Pierre's one of the best leadoff men in the game and Murton's currently a mere 6 or 7 hitter. Pierre's speed is quite an important asset.

 

His speed has value, and it's already reflected in his production by means of beat out singles, extra bases on balls in the gap, stolen bases, etc. Murton's still pretty likely to match or better Pierre's production, and there's not a lot outside of that helping Pierre's cause.

 

Speed can't only be measured as tangible. This has been argued over and over here though, so I'll leave it at that.

 

90% it can be. If Pierre had average speed he'd be a .150 hitter with no power. That's a pitcher. So his presence in the major leagues and his $5.5 million contract is due to his speed. That's tangible. There are few NL CFs clearly less productive than Pierre.

 

Hardballtimes.com recently did a study to see if there was a "disruption effect" when the top base stealers were on first base. It found little correlation adjusted for a whole bunch of stuff (e.g., with a man on first BA goes up no matter who is on) and some standard deviation. At best no more than three runs a year could be attributed to such an effect. If Pierre goes 70/80 as a base stealer, unlikely, he would add about ten runs or one win for the Cubs. Add in a few disruption runs, big deal. It's the same as 10 HRs.

 

All of Hendry's talk of a leadoff man is BS. If the Cubs had Edmonds in CF, would they be better with Cedeno, Walker, Hairston or Murton leading off? It's a joke.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm so sick of the "distracts the pitcher" line of thought. It's so easy to say, but no one ever backs it up with any proof. Until then, I dont see any reason to believe it.

 

I have my doubts as to the level of havoc it causes being anything but minimal, but MLB pitchers have commented on the fact that they sometimes pitch differently or pay too much attention to the runner. The fact that I love my wife and child is no less true because I can't show proof that I do.

 

In Pierre's case, we have the benefit of him and Castillo batting almost exclusively 1 and 2 for several years. Look at the numbers, when Pierre is performing well(i.e. he's on base a lot), Castillo does poorly. When Pierre isn't performing well and not on base very much, Castillo performed very very well. Their OPS's made almost a perfect ratio.

[BigbadB]

Can an argument also be made that when a speedy runner is on base, a pitcher and/or defense can become more focused rather than distracted?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Can an argument also be made that when a speedy runner is on base, a pitcher and/or defense can become more focused rather than distracted?

 

Both seem logical, and I'm sure you could find players that will vouch for either side.

[rjchapma]

I think more distracted espically if they are a top baserunner in the league. No when there are men on past 1B I think thats when the pitcher and defense become more focused. I think the pitcher becomes to much focused on holding the runner on that it takes away from who he's pitching too. Thats why i wanted a legitamate leadoff hitter and I think Pierre is that even if he doesn't have an All-Star season.

[rjchapma]

By the way though have we found out anymore info about this proposed deal or was it just on the radio station that one time.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think more distracted espically if they are a top baserunner in the league. No when there are men on past 1B I think thats when the pitcher and defense become more focused. I think the pitcher becomes to much focused on holding the runner on that it takes away from who he's pitching too. Thats why i wanted a legitamate leadoff hitter and I think Pierre is that even if he doesn't have an All-Star season.

 

If pitchers get distracted, then why did the person following Pierre perform worse when Pierre was on base more?

[rjchapma]

That may be so for the Marlins when those two were playing. I don't have statistics about this, but im pretty sure it's about 50/50 for the player doing better or doing worse.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

But we're talking specifically about Pierre. And we have evidence that runs contrary to the "he distracts the pitchers because he's a top 10 speed guy or whatever" theory. There's no evidence for that cause aside from logic that makes sense and has player support for either side. That theory is pretty much shot(especially Pierre's case) unless there's something else besides an individual's dogged belief to back it up.

[Jehrico]

I'm so sick of the "distracts the pitcher" line of thought. It's so easy to say, but no one ever backs it up with any proof. Until then, I dont see any reason to believe it.

 

I have my doubts as to the level of havoc it causes being anything but minimal, but MLB pitchers have commented on the fact that they sometimes pitch differently or pay too much attention to the runner. The fact that I love my wife and child is no less true because I can't show proof that I do.

 

In Pierre's case, we have the benefit of him and Castillo batting almost exclusively 1 and 2 for several years. Look at the numbers, when Pierre is performing well(i.e. he's on base a lot), Castillo does poorly. When Pierre isn't performing well and not on base very much, Castillo performed very very well. Their OPS's made almost a perfect ratio.

 

Not that I doubt you, but is there any sort of study or any numbers someone has crunced that support this conclusion? I'm curious as to how this conclusion was derived, as I'd never heard this theory before.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

That may be so for the Marlins when those two were playing. I don't have statistics about this, but im pretty sure it's about 50/50 for the player doing better or doing worse.

 

It's about 50/50 that I don't understand what you are trying to say.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm so sick of the "distracts the pitcher" line of thought. It's so easy to say, but no one ever backs it up with any proof. Until then, I dont see any reason to believe it.

 

I have my doubts as to the level of havoc it causes being anything but minimal, but MLB pitchers have commented on the fact that they sometimes pitch differently or pay too much attention to the runner. The fact that I love my wife and child is no less true because I can't show proof that I do.

 

In Pierre's case, we have the benefit of him and Castillo batting almost exclusively 1 and 2 for several years. Look at the numbers, when Pierre is performing well(i.e. he's on base a lot), Castillo does poorly. When Pierre isn't performing well and not on base very much, Castillo performed very very well. Their OPS's made almost a perfect ratio.

 

Not that I doubt you, but is there any sort of study or any numbers someone has crunced that support this conclusion? I'm curious as to how this conclusion was derived, as I'd never heard this theory before.

 

Not a study by any means, but when Pierre was brought up at some point I looked up his numbers. We have the good fortune of Pierre/Castillo being 1/2 for a significant sample, and those were the findings. I have class to go to in a minute so I don't have time to look them up again, but someone feel free to look at their numbers. IIRC, the numbers held true for "runners on" situations as well as overall production.

[rjchapma]

I'm saying for leadoff hitters and there number 2 hitters behind them I bet it's about 50/50 for ones that do well with man or don't do well with a man on. Hence Mizzoutiger said about Castillo and Pierre. I don't have those statistics though so I could be wrong.

[Gunned]

 

90% it can be. If Pierre had average speed he'd be a .150 hitter with no power. That's a pitcher.

 

And if Adam Dunn didn't have plate discipline, he'd have a .270 OBP. And if Barry Zito had an average curveball, he wouldn't be in the major leagues. It's not reasonable to remove a player's most valuable asset in order to show a lack of productivity.