Wouldn't Dunn Look Nice in Leftfield?

[CubsWin]

I'm not doubting the ceilings of the guys we're giving up. I'm just doubting the probability that they reach those ceilings.

I have thought that both sides of this issue have good reasons to support their opinion for months now. I waver back and forth on whether I would be willing to give up on Pie before knowing more about his likelihood of fulfilling on his potential.

 

But I still think that Pie's ability to play CF and play it incredibly well, his arm and his speed on the basepaths are going unacknowledged in this thread. These are abilities that he possesses now. We don't have to wonder if he will be able to do them at the major league level. The base running still needs some refinement, but his defense, by all accounts is there now. He is already better than Dunn at that and is able to do it at near gold glove levels in a much more impactful position (CF) than Dunn's (LF). I don't think that big difference in their games is being taken into account when you are making your argument.

[goonys evil twin]

I'm not doubting the ceilings of the guys we're giving up. I'm just doubting the probability that they reach those ceilings.

I have thought that both sides of this issue have good reasons to support their opinion for months now. I waver back and forth on whether I would be willing to give up on Pie before knowing more about his likelihood of fulfilling on his potential.

 

But I still think that Pie's ability to play CF and play it incredibly well, his arm and his speed on the basepaths are going unacknowledged in this thread. These are abilities that he possesses now. We don't have to wonder if he will be able to do them at the major league level. The base running still needs some refinement, but his defense, by all accounts is there now. He is already better than Dunn at that and is able to do it at near gold glove levels in a much more impactful position (CF) than Dunn's (LF). I don't think that big difference in their games is being taken into account when you are making your argument.

 

Nobody is trading Dunn for Pie for defensive purposes. There are quite a few guys who can handle major league positions from a defensive standpoint. The problem, and really the thing that matters most, by far, is his hitting. A gold glove caliber fielder who can't hit is worthless. You trade Pie for Dunn because you know Dunn is a great major league ballplayer, and he is young, while Pie is still a major unknown.

[CubDad4Ever]

Goony i would agree with you depending on your definition of not hit. But top researchers such as Bill James in their ranking of priemium defensive postions , such as ss have put many people in their top 100 all time based on defense primarly (they were weak on obp) . As i have said more than a few times , in and ideal world you would love to have 900 ops gold glover.

Those guys are difficult to aquire. My point is dependent on what level of offense makes a gold glover valuable or invaluable. James address' s this line of thinking often. I get your point on wanting a big ops guy in the outfield , i too would love to see that happen. Coach L

[noisesquared]

I'm not doubting the ceilings of the guys we're giving up. I'm just doubting the probability that they reach those ceilings.

I have thought that both sides of this issue have good reasons to support their opinion for months now. I waver back and forth on whether I would be willing to give up on Pie before knowing more about his likelihood of fulfilling on his potential.

 

But I still think that Pie's ability to play CF and play it incredibly well, his arm and his speed on the basepaths are going unacknowledged in this thread. These are abilities that he possesses now. We don't have to wonder if he will be able to do them at the major league level. The base running still needs some refinement, but his defense, by all accounts is there now. He is already better than Dunn at that and is able to do it at near gold glove levels in a much more impactful position (CF) than Dunn's (LF). I don't think that big difference in their games is being taken into account when you are making your argument.

 

Nobody is trading Dunn for Pie for defensive purposes. There are quite a few guys who can handle major league positions from a defensive standpoint. The problem, and really the thing that matters most, by far, is his hitting. A gold glove caliber fielder who can't hit is worthless. You trade Pie for Dunn because you know Dunn is a great major league ballplayer, and he is young, while Pie is still a major unknown.

 

And Pie is also blocked at his primary position by Pierre. If Hendry locks Pierre up long-term, then Pie becomes a corner outfielder, where his speed and defense is less important and any deficiencies in his offensive game will be less tolerable. Pie has a much greater chance to be an above average CF than an above average corner OF. I think the argument could be made that Pie's potential as an offensive/defensive CF might not be worth Dunn, but I can't see any argument over who'll be the more productive corner OF.

[goonys evil twin]

Goony i would agree with you depending on your definition of not hit. But top researchers such as Bill James in their ranking of priemium defensive postions , such as ss have put many people in their top 100 all time based on defense primarly (they were weak on obp) . As i have said more than a few times , in and ideal world you would love to have 900 ops gold glover.

Those guys are difficult to aquire. My point is dependent on what level of offense makes a gold glover valuable or invaluable. James address' s this line of thinking often. I get your point on wanting a big ops guy in the outfield , i too would love to see that happen. Coach L

 

I don't know who BJ ranked as his top 100 CF. But the issue with Pie is he could still not even hit well enough to make a roster, let alone crack such a list. His K rates and lack of patience has to put some doubt into even his greatest supporters. Pie could easily never make it in the big leagues. Dunn is already an established stud, and he is young. Nobody becomes a star on defense alone. You have to do something with the bat, especially as an outfielder.

[CubfaninCA]

I think the Yankees motivation on Giles was to drive his price up in case Boston made a run at him. While the Yankees do pay top dollar for players, Giles just wasn't a good fit for them. An outfield with Giles in CF would have been ugly, especially anothe year or two down the road. Boston was a team that expressed interest, so it made sense for the Yankees to get in on the bidding just to drive up the price for othe teams.

 

Legitimate question regarding Giles (the one year contract question). Maddux would be off the books, so there's 9m. Not giving Neifi 2.5m or Rusch 3m would have been almost another 6m. Not giving Jacque Jones 5m for the next 3 years would have been a given. Pie taking over in CF when Pierre and his 6m left in 2007 was a possibility. If Wood isn't retained, there's another 12m. Granted, other players would have to be brought in and along with raises to Prior and Zambrano and the like, I think Giles was affordable for the next 3 years. Especially if Cedeno, Murton and Pie worked out. In fact, with Giles, I think the team could still be quite good offensively if Murton and Cedeno struggle in their first year.

 

If it was me, I wouldn't have spent all that cash on Howry and Eyre. I would have traded farm surplus for MacDougal and Affeldt in KC. Big savings there also. Bullpen guys are completely unpredictable. As good as Eyre and Howry were last year, there is no guarantee they will be that good again this year. It's hard to find consistent bullpen guys outside of the top closers. Paying big money for them has burned the Cubs before (Remlinger, Hawkins). Yes, used improperly is part of the problem. But, that problem is still patrolling the dugout this year.

 

KC would have pounced on Mitre, Nolasco and Pinto for those two relievers. CF still needed to be addressed, and I would have focused my energy on getting Bradley. Yes, Bradley is another guy who didn't appear to be available to the Cubs as the Dodgers didn't appear to want to deal with Hendry. Why is that, exactly? Dusty flies out to LA to meet with Bradley and that's the end of it? What happened there? I suppose Dusty could have been less than impressed with his meeting with Bradley, but I can't imagine it.

 

Can't agree w/ NY's primary interest being to drive up the price so Boston couldn't get him. You'd have to show me some evidence for me to buy this. I think Giles basically used NY to get a more money out of SD.

[Neuby]

It wouldn't surprize me that if the Reds do trade Dunn , we would be getting back Eric Milton also.

Maybe the Reds don't Pie back but I find that really hard to belive because over the years the reds have always loved top athlete outfielders.

Maybe you could get the Reds to bite with this offer

 

 

Hill

Williams

Nova

Dope

Sing

[SCCubbieFAN]

Stick around for what?

 

A run at the division title. Many here have said Cinci has a good to great lineup (with Dunn in it) but what it lacks is pitching. If the new GM somehow finds a way to acquire some decent pitching, perhaps that will show Dunn a commitment to winning which might make him stay around. Just a thought.

[CubDad4Ever]

Goony, i think you are dead on in the terms , you just discribed. Great take , i will be the first to admit , you will see more defensive first ss in his top 100 compared to cfs. I check out how many fit the defensive first profile. Have a great 3 day and excellent take Goony. Coach L

[BigbadB]

A few players might take a team up on that, but most want the big payday. Furcal reached free agency, and what better position to win than staying with the Braves. He left Atlanta for Los Angeles, a team that has basically been in turmoil.

 

A player like Dunn is probably going to get 2 big paydays. But, this one is the one he will really want to make a splash. Injuries could remove any chance you get the 2nd big payday.

 

Brian Giles is a perfect example of a guy who missed his big payday. He signed a long term deal with the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, who never once attempted to build a good team around him. I think Giles wanted a big payday this time around, but the settings had to be right and he needed to be overwhelmed to move. No one overwhelmed him and San Diego upped their offer to keep him.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm not doubting the ceilings of the guys we're giving up. I'm just doubting the probability that they reach those ceilings.

I have thought that both sides of this issue have good reasons to support their opinion for months now. I waver back and forth on whether I would be willing to give up on Pie before knowing more about his likelihood of fulfilling on his potential.

 

But I still think that Pie's ability to play CF and play it incredibly well, his arm and his speed on the basepaths are going unacknowledged in this thread. These are abilities that he possesses now. We don't have to wonder if he will be able to do them at the major league level. The base running still needs some refinement, but his defense, by all accounts is there now. He is already better than Dunn at that and is able to do it at near gold glove levels in a much more impactful position (CF) than Dunn's (LF). I don't think that big difference in their games is being taken into account when you are making your argument.

 

I understand that Pie likely will be very good defensively, but if he can't hit major league pitching, that just makes him Tom Goodwin or Corey Patterson.

 

Pie could be very good, even great, and I hold out hope he will do this, but if trading him now nets Dunn, I'd do that deal any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

[CubDad4Ever]

Im totally on board Vance. Have a great 3 day boys Coach L

[CubsWin]

I'm not doubting the ceilings of the guys we're giving up. I'm just doubting the probability that they reach those ceilings.

I have thought that both sides of this issue have good reasons to support their opinion for months now. I waver back and forth on whether I would be willing to give up on Pie before knowing more about his likelihood of fulfilling on his potential.

 

But I still think that Pie's ability to play CF and play it incredibly well, his arm and his speed on the basepaths are going unacknowledged in this thread. These are abilities that he possesses now. We don't have to wonder if he will be able to do them at the major league level. The base running still needs some refinement, but his defense, by all accounts is there now. He is already better than Dunn at that and is able to do it at near gold glove levels in a much more impactful position (CF) than Dunn's (LF). I don't think that big difference in their games is being taken into account when you are making your argument.

 

I understand that Pie likely will be very good defensively, but if he can't hit major league pitching, that just makes him Tom Goodwin or Corey Patterson.

 

Pie could be very good, even great, and I hold out hope he will do this, but if trading him now nets Dunn, I'd do that deal any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

As might I, as I have said twice earlier in this thread, but not Pie plus Williams plus Marshall plus Dopirak or whoever else.

 

Isn't that unnecessary overkill? If Pie has the chance of being a better all around player than Dunn is then why would it be fair to add all of that other talent to the deal?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm not doubting the ceilings of the guys we're giving up. I'm just doubting the probability that they reach those ceilings.

I have thought that both sides of this issue have good reasons to support their opinion for months now. I waver back and forth on whether I would be willing to give up on Pie before knowing more about his likelihood of fulfilling on his potential.

 

But I still think that Pie's ability to play CF and play it incredibly well, his arm and his speed on the basepaths are going unacknowledged in this thread. These are abilities that he possesses now. We don't have to wonder if he will be able to do them at the major league level. The base running still needs some refinement, but his defense, by all accounts is there now. He is already better than Dunn at that and is able to do it at near gold glove levels in a much more impactful position (CF) than Dunn's (LF). I don't think that big difference in their games is being taken into account when you are making your argument.

 

I understand that Pie likely will be very good defensively, but if he can't hit major league pitching, that just makes him Tom Goodwin or Corey Patterson.

 

Pie could be very good, even great, and I hold out hope he will do this, but if trading him now nets Dunn, I'd do that deal any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

As might I, as I have said twice earlier in this thread, but not Pie plus Williams plus Marshall plus Dopirak or whoever else.

 

Isn't that unnecessary overkill? If Pie has the chance of being a better all around player than Dunn is then why would it be fair to add all of that other talent to the deal?

 

Because Dunn is already at that level, and Pie is very unlikely to ever reach it, nevermind sustain it for several seasons.

[CubsWin]

I think the argument could be made that Pie's potential as an offensive/defensive CF might not be worth Dunn, but I can't see any argument over who'll be the more productive corner OF.

Agreed, exactly what I've been saying.

 

Stick Pie in RF and its a lot easier to trade him for a player like Dunn. But even if Pierre is signed long term, he can still be traded. It is Pie's ability to provide gold glove CF and hit for a .850 or higher OPS with great speed on the base paths that makes me wonder if dealing him now before really understanding what the Cubs have might be a really bad idea.

 

I understand Dunn's value. I agree completely that he is a special hitter. I understand the logic that says go get the sure thing and risk giving up the unproven player that could turn out to be better all around. I'm just not so willing to pull the trigger quite yet. Having Pie at league minimum for four years would allow the Cubs to sign Dunn or someone like him as a free agent.

 

And I'm certainly not willing to give up Williams and others in the process. If Pie puts up numbers like he did last season this year at AAA, he could be for real.

[CubsWin]

Nobody is trading Dunn for Pie for defensive purposes. There are quite a few guys who can handle major league positions from a defensive standpoint. The problem, and really the thing that matters most, by far, is his hitting. A gold glove caliber fielder who can't hit is worthless. You trade Pie for Dunn because you know Dunn is a great major league ballplayer, and he is young, while Pie is still a major unknown.

No one is suggesting that trading Dunn for Pie would be for defensive purposes.

 

Are you suggesting that Pie can't hit? Certainly the chances of Pie being an above average hitter are much greater than the chances of him being a complete flop, right? How does the sentence, "a gold glove caliber fielder who can't hit is worthless" apply to this discussion?

 

What I am suggesting is that a left-fielder with a .930-.950 OPS and not much else who is about to become very expensive pales in comparison to a gold glove caliber center-fielder with a .860-.890 OPS with great speed on the base paths who is 5-6 years younger and still has many seasons at or near league minimum.

 

It is absolutely accurate to say that Pie may not ever become the player I described above. It is also absolutely accurate to say that he may. It would be great to have a discussion/debate about the chances of Pie fulfilling on his potential.

 

Remember, at age 20, Pie put up an OPS of .903 in 240 ABs against AA pitching. At the same age, Dunn had an OPS of .897 in 420 ABs against High-A pitching. I'm not saying this is conclusive evidence that Pie will be as good or better than Dunn with the bat. No way. Only that this is one piece of statistical evidence that shows that it is possible. Dunn exploded the following year. Pie would have to take it to the next level as well. But if he can refine his batting eye, what are we looking at?

[CubsWin]

I'm not doubting the ceilings of the guys we're giving up. I'm just doubting the probability that they reach those ceilings.

I have thought that both sides of this issue have good reasons to support their opinion for months now. I waver back and forth on whether I would be willing to give up on Pie before knowing more about his likelihood of fulfilling on his potential.

 

But I still think that Pie's ability to play CF and play it incredibly well, his arm and his speed on the basepaths are going unacknowledged in this thread. These are abilities that he possesses now. We don't have to wonder if he will be able to do them at the major league level. The base running still needs some refinement, but his defense, by all accounts is there now. He is already better than Dunn at that and is able to do it at near gold glove levels in a much more impactful position (CF) than Dunn's (LF). I don't think that big difference in their games is being taken into account when you are making your argument.

 

I understand that Pie likely will be very good defensively, but if he can't hit major league pitching, that just makes him Tom Goodwin or Corey Patterson.

 

Pie could be very good, even great, and I hold out hope he will do this, but if trading him now nets Dunn, I'd do that deal any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

As might I, as I have said twice earlier in this thread, but not Pie plus Williams plus Marshall plus Dopirak or whoever else.

 

Isn't that unnecessary overkill? If Pie has the chance of being a better all around player than Dunn is then why would it be fair to add all of that other talent to the deal?

 

Because Dunn is already at that level, and Pie is very unlikely to ever reach it, nevermind sustain it for several seasons.

But to be equal to or better than Dunn, Pie doesn't have to match Dunn's offensive output because he can play CF and play it at a gold glove level not to mention is arm and speed on the basepaths, he is 5-6 years younger and could produce really good numbers at league minimum for several years to come.

 

No one is suggesting that Pie will ever be the type of producer with the bat that Dunn is now. Of course that is very unlikely to happen. The question is how likely is it for Pie to fulfill his potential as a hitter and what is that ceiling?

 

At age 20, Pie and Dunn put up very similar OPS numbers with Dunn having much better patience at the plate but with Pie producing his numbers in AA while Dunn was at High-A. Dunn's ceiling seems to be around a .950 OPS maybe higher if he can get his average up and Ks down. Is Pie's ceiling an .850 OPS? Higher? Lower? I submit that it is very difficult to tell at this point. This is a critical season for Felix.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm not doubting the ceilings of the guys we're giving up. I'm just doubting the probability that they reach those ceilings.

I have thought that both sides of this issue have good reasons to support their opinion for months now. I waver back and forth on whether I would be willing to give up on Pie before knowing more about his likelihood of fulfilling on his potential.

 

But I still think that Pie's ability to play CF and play it incredibly well, his arm and his speed on the basepaths are going unacknowledged in this thread. These are abilities that he possesses now. We don't have to wonder if he will be able to do them at the major league level. The base running still needs some refinement, but his defense, by all accounts is there now. He is already better than Dunn at that and is able to do it at near gold glove levels in a much more impactful position (CF) than Dunn's (LF). I don't think that big difference in their games is being taken into account when you are making your argument.

 

I understand that Pie likely will be very good defensively, but if he can't hit major league pitching, that just makes him Tom Goodwin or Corey Patterson.

 

Pie could be very good, even great, and I hold out hope he will do this, but if trading him now nets Dunn, I'd do that deal any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

As might I, as I have said twice earlier in this thread, but not Pie plus Williams plus Marshall plus Dopirak or whoever else.

 

Isn't that unnecessary overkill? If Pie has the chance of being a better all around player than Dunn is then why would it be fair to add all of that other talent to the deal?

 

Because Dunn is already at that level, and Pie is very unlikely to ever reach it, nevermind sustain it for several seasons.

But to be equal to or better than Dunn, Pie doesn't have to match Dunn's offensive output because he can play CF and play it at a gold glove level not to mention is arm and speed on the basepaths, he is 5-6 years younger and could produce really good numbers at league minimum for several years to come.

 

No one is suggesting that Pie will ever be the type of producer with the bat that Dunn is now. Of course that is very unlikely to happen. The question is how likely is it for Pie to fulfill his potential as a hitter and what is that ceiling?

 

At age 20, Pie and Dunn put up very similar OPS numbers with Dunn having much better patience at the plate but with Pie producing his numbers in AA while Dunn was at High-A. Dunn's ceiling seems to be around a .950 OPS maybe higher if he can get his average up and Ks down. Is Pie's ceiling an .850 OPS? Higher? Lower? I submit that it is very difficult to tell at this point. This is a critical season for Felix.

 

I think it's monumentally unlikely that Felix gets to a .900 OPS or consistently puts up a .900 OPS. The .850 range(emphasis on range) looks to be around his ceiling to me. That's why it's easier to do the deal, because a player of Pie's talents, while rare, are not as valuable as someone who can mash the ball as well as Dunn can. Adding players to the deal evens it out, plus compensates for the fact that Pie isn't at that level or may never reach it. Would I do the deal? I don't know to be honest. I'm much higher than most on Williams, and I'm more down than most on Dope.

[RynoRules]

 

I think it's monumentally unlikely that Felix gets to a .900 OPS or consistently puts up a .900 OPS. The .850 range(emphasis on range) looks to be around his ceiling to me. That's why it's easier to do the deal, because a player of Pie's talents, while rare, are not as valuable as someone who can mash the ball as well as Dunn can. Adding players to the deal evens it out, plus compensates for the fact that Pie isn't at that level or may never reach it. Would I do the deal? I don't know to be honest. I'm much higher than most on Williams, and I'm more down than most on Dope.

 

Agree with above. I have said several times Pie and a package that includes Williams or Hill should in exchange for Dunn (and a prospect?) is a no-brainer, IMO. He's exactly what this team needs.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Nobody is trading Dunn for Pie for defensive purposes. There are quite a few guys who can handle major league positions from a defensive standpoint. The problem, and really the thing that matters most, by far, is his hitting. A gold glove caliber fielder who can't hit is worthless. You trade Pie for Dunn because you know Dunn is a great major league ballplayer, and he is young, while Pie is still a major unknown.

No one is suggesting that trading Dunn for Pie would be for defensive purposes.

 

Are you suggesting that Pie can't hit? Certainly the chances of Pie being an above average hitter are much greater than the chances of him being a complete flop, right? How does the sentence, "a gold glove caliber fielder who can't hit is worthless" apply to this discussion?

 

What I am suggesting is that a left-fielder with a .930-.950 OPS and not much else who is about to become very expensive pales in comparison to a gold glove caliber center-fielder with a .860-.890 OPS with great speed on the base paths who is 5-6 years younger and still has many seasons at or near league minimum.

 

It is absolutely accurate to say that Pie may not ever become the player I described above. It is also absolutely accurate to say that he may. It would be great to have a discussion/debate about the chances of Pie fulfilling on his potential.

 

Remember, at age 20, Pie put up an OPS of .903 in 240 ABs against AA pitching. At the same age, Dunn had an OPS of .897 in 420 ABs against High-A pitching. I'm not saying this is conclusive evidence that Pie will be as good or better than Dunn with the bat. No way. Only that this is one piece of statistical evidence that shows that it is possible. Dunn exploded the following year. Pie would have to take it to the next level as well. But if he can refine his batting eye, what are we looking at?

 

If we didn't just trade for Pierre, I'd agree with you. After the price we paid to get him, Pierre will be getting a multi-year deal. Pie loses a lot of value in a corner OF spot.

[baseball7897]

The Cubs have settled all their arbitration cases, reaching terms with pitcher Carlos Zambrano on a one-year, $6.5 million contract on Saturday

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Do you realize how hard it is to sustain a .860-.890 OPS is?

 

Especially for a guy like Pie who has Patterson-esque plate discipline? Pie is still ridicuously raw, yes his performance this year was nice, but it does not make him a lock for anything.

 

That year for Dunn you keep bringing up...his age 20 season where his OPS was lower than Pie's and a level lower...you forget to mention some more important aspects in a minor league hitters numbers. Dunn walked 100 times that year, and K'd 101 times. He showed a great eye even then.

Pie's 16 to 53 K:BB in half a seasons AB's don't inspire much confidence. Over a full season thats what...maybe 35 BB's and 110 K's? Not very impressive.

 

Pie is no lock to be even an average player in the majors, to balk on a young, proven great hitter because he has a [really] small chance to MAYBE be more productive just doesn't seem right does it?

 

I'd definitely give up Pie in a deal for a Dunn or someone like Dunn.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

One question that has often been asked is "if the Reds trade Dunn, who will play firstbase?"

 

That question may have been answered today.

 

Link,

 

Scott Hatteberg agreed to a one-year, $750,000 contract Sunday with Cincinnati, giving the Reds more flexibility at first base.

 

Hatteberg batted .256 with seven homers and 59 RBI last season for Oakland, which declined his contract option for 2006. The Athletics decided to stick with Dan Johnson at first base.

 

Hatteberg can make an additional $250,000 in performance bonuses, based upon plate appearances.

 

Maybe Dunn is next...?

[Neuby]

The Cubs can include Sing so he can take some at-bats away from Hatterberg.

Williams,Hill,Pie,Sing for Dunn and Freel.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Cubs can include Sing so he can take some at-bats away from Hatterberg.

Williams,Hill,Pie,Sing for Dunn and Freel.

 

That package sounds ok for Dunn, but I doubt Freel is thrown in as well.