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Posted
Rob Mackowiak is the only utility bench player I would rather have than Neifi Perez.

 

Dusty, will Kerry Wood be ready by Opening Day? This is Dusty, right?

Posted
When I saw there was a brand new Dunn thread already at 7 pages, I got excited. Then i skipped to page 7.

 

i take blame for it. I should've never mentioned Neifi in the first place.

 

anyway, yeah Dunn would look great in LF :)

Posted
Which Cubs 44 would you rather have in a bar fight.

 

A) The Farns

B) Dunn

C) Telemaco

 

Dunn has the obvious physical advantages, but I gotta go with The Farns...

 

Theres only one person who can kick The Farns butt. And thats Farns.

Posted
But anyway...I think it's time for the Cubs to make a play for Dunn.

 

I'd offer a package of Pie, Dopirak, and two pitchers from this group: Marmol, Ryu, Williams, Wellemeyer, Gallagher, Marshall, or Guzman.

 

Depending on what other teams put on the table, that sort of offer could be tempting to Kivsky as he builds on the future.

In an effort to get this thread back on track...

 

Does anyone else think giving up Pie, Dope and two pitchers who could be Williams and Guzman or Marshall is overpaying?

 

Dunn is a great power hitter who hits from the left side and he gets on base a lot, but he isn't Bobby Abreu at age 25. Abreu was/is the complete package that Pie could be. Dunn's OPS is elite, but the rest of his game is average or slightly above average. Is OPS such an all-determining statistic?

 

Pie's ceiling is higher than Dunn's though Dunn is realizing his potential at the moment while Pie is still somewhat of a risk. So Pie for Dunn straight up might be fair if both GMs feel like rolling the dice. Or Dunn for a solid starter like Williams and a top pitching prospect like Hill/Guzman/Marshall would be fair, but not both of those offers combined plus Dopirak.

 

What do the rest of you think?

Posted
But anyway...I think it's time for the Cubs to make a play for Dunn.

 

I'd offer a package of Pie, Dopirak, and two pitchers from this group: Marmol, Ryu, Williams, Wellemeyer, Gallagher, Marshall, or Guzman.

 

Depending on what other teams put on the table, that sort of offer could be tempting to Kivsky as he builds on the future.

In an effort to get this thread back on track...

 

Does anyone else think giving up Pie, Dope and two pitchers who could be Williams and Guzman or Marshall is overpaying?

 

Dunn is a great power hitter who hits from the left side and he gets on base a lot, but he isn't Bobby Abreu at age 25. Abreu was/is the complete package that Pie could be. Dunn's OPS is elite, but the rest of his game is average or slightly above average. Is OPS such an all-determining statistic?

 

Pie's ceiling is higher than Dunn's though Dunn is realizing his potential at the moment while Pie is still somewhat of a risk. So Pie for Dunn straight up might be fair if both GMs feel like rolling the dice. Or Dunn for a solid starter like Williams and a top pitching prospect like Hill/Guzman/Marshall would be fair, but not both of those offers combined plus Dopirak.

 

What do the rest of you think?

 

I don't think Pie, Dope, Williams, and Guzman is overpaying.

 

Pie is a boarderline top 20 prospect in all of baseball. Very good, very very good, but not a "can't miss". Williams is a #5 right now, who could become a number 3 pitcher at some point. Guzman can't stay on the field.

 

26 year old monsters who can hit 45-50 homers a year for the next 5 years with a .400 + OBP are special. If we could get him for just those prospects I would be thrilled. In reality we probably couldn't get Dunn at this point without losing Z or Prior.

Posted
But anyway...I think it's time for the Cubs to make a play for Dunn.

 

I'd offer a package of Pie, Dopirak, and two pitchers from this group: Marmol, Ryu, Williams, Wellemeyer, Gallagher, Marshall, or Guzman.

 

Depending on what other teams put on the table, that sort of offer could be tempting to Kivsky as he builds on the future.

In an effort to get this thread back on track...

 

Does anyone else think giving up Pie, Dope and two pitchers who could be Williams and Guzman or Marshall is overpaying?

 

Dunn is a great power hitter who hits from the left side and he gets on base a lot, but he isn't Bobby Abreu at age 25. Abreu was/is the complete package that Pie could be. Dunn's OPS is elite, but the rest of his game is average or slightly above average. Is OPS such an all-determining statistic?

 

Pie's ceiling is higher than Dunn's though Dunn is realizing his potential at the moment while Pie is still somewhat of a risk. So Pie for Dunn straight up might be fair if both GMs feel like rolling the dice. Or Dunn for a solid starter like Williams and a top pitching prospect like Hill/Guzman/Marshall would be fair, but not both of those offers combined plus Dopirak.

 

What do the rest of you think?

 

we are set at 1st for years with Lee so giving up Dopirak wouldn't be that bad. With Pie, like you said, is a very big risk. The comparisons to CPatt are pretty scary as well. I would trade Pie in a deal to net Dunn. We are pretty good on pitching depth. Guzman is injury prone, but it seems like he still has some pretty good value. Williams could either be the 5th starter on the big league team this year, the long man, or in AAA. Losing him wouldn't be that big of a deal. I really don't think that deal would be considered overpaying.

Posted
But anyway...I think it's time for the Cubs to make a play for Dunn.

 

I'd offer a package of Pie, Dopirak, and two pitchers from this group: Marmol, Ryu, Williams, Wellemeyer, Gallagher, Marshall, or Guzman.

 

Depending on what other teams put on the table, that sort of offer could be tempting to Kivsky as he builds on the future.

In an effort to get this thread back on track...

 

Does anyone else think giving up Pie, Dope and two pitchers who could be Williams and Guzman or Marshall is overpaying?

 

Dunn is a great power hitter who hits from the left side and he gets on base a lot, but he isn't Bobby Abreu at age 25. Abreu was/is the complete package that Pie could be. Dunn's OPS is elite, but the rest of his game is average or slightly above average. Is OPS such an all-determining statistic?

 

Pie's ceiling is higher than Dunn's though Dunn is realizing his potential at the moment while Pie is still somewhat of a risk. So Pie for Dunn straight up might be fair if both GMs feel like rolling the dice. Or Dunn for a solid starter like Williams and a top pitching prospect like Hill/Guzman/Marshall would be fair, but not both of those offers combined plus Dopirak.

 

What do the rest of you think?

 

I think the odds of Pie ever being better than Dunn are pretty small.

Posted
But anyway...I think it's time for the Cubs to make a play for Dunn.

 

I'd offer a package of Pie, Dopirak, and two pitchers from this group: Marmol, Ryu, Williams, Wellemeyer, Gallagher, Marshall, or Guzman.

 

Depending on what other teams put on the table, that sort of offer could be tempting to Kivsky as he builds on the future.

In an effort to get this thread back on track...

 

Does anyone else think giving up Pie, Dope and two pitchers who could be Williams and Guzman or Marshall is overpaying?

 

Dunn is a great power hitter who hits from the left side and he gets on base a lot, but he isn't Bobby Abreu at age 25. Abreu was/is the complete package that Pie could be. Dunn's OPS is elite, but the rest of his game is average or slightly above average. Is OPS such an all-determining statistic?

 

Pie's ceiling is higher than Dunn's though Dunn is realizing his potential at the moment while Pie is still somewhat of a risk. So Pie for Dunn straight up might be fair if both GMs feel like rolling the dice. Or Dunn for a solid starter like Williams and a top pitching prospect like Hill/Guzman/Marshall would be fair, but not both of those offers combined plus Dopirak.

 

What do the rest of you think?

 

I disagree that Pie's ceiling is higher than Dunn. I doubt Pie becomes a career 900+ OPS. Pie will be a better defender and if he plays CF he has some value because of that being a more demanding position, but I don't really see Pie has having a higher ceiling.

 

There's no way you get Dunn for Pie straight up. One is a proven top of the league offensive performer. The other hasn't proven anything above AA. While OPS may not be an all-determining statistic, it's close when measuring offensive production.

 

If you want a more encompassing offensive stat, try RC. Dunn was 12th in the NL in runs created in 2005. He trailed Lee, Pujols, Bay, Giles, Delgado, Cabrera, Abreu, Kent, Ensberg, Wright, and Burrell.

 

We could have had Giles, but passed. While Abreu may appear to be a more complete player, he is much older than Dunn. Dunn has yet to enter his prime. While Abreu will experience a decline in the coming years, Dunn is likely to get better.

 

Dunn was 10th in the NL in win shares which does take into account all of his contributions. This places him ahead of Abreu.

 

Is Dunn worth a bunch of maybes....yes and it really doesn't matter the ceiling of those maybes. None of that group are can't miss, a-level prospects.[/url]

Posted
But anyway...I think it's time for the Cubs to make a play for Dunn.

 

I'd offer a package of Pie, Dopirak, and two pitchers from this group: Marmol, Ryu, Williams, Wellemeyer, Gallagher, Marshall, or Guzman.

 

Depending on what other teams put on the table, that sort of offer could be tempting to Kivsky as he builds on the future.

In an effort to get this thread back on track...

 

Does anyone else think giving up Pie, Dope and two pitchers who could be Williams and Guzman or Marshall is overpaying?

 

Dunn is a great power hitter who hits from the left side and he gets on base a lot, but he isn't Bobby Abreu at age 25. Abreu was/is the complete package that Pie could be. Dunn's OPS is elite, but the rest of his game is average or slightly above average. Is OPS such an all-determining statistic?

 

Pie's ceiling is higher than Dunn's though Dunn is realizing his potential at the moment while Pie is still somewhat of a risk. So Pie for Dunn straight up might be fair if both GMs feel like rolling the dice. Or Dunn for a solid starter like Williams and a top pitching prospect like Hill/Guzman/Marshall would be fair, but not both of those offers combined plus Dopirak.

 

What do the rest of you think?

 

I disagree that Pie's ceiling is higher than Dunn. I doubt Pie becomes a career 900+ OPS. Pie will be a better defender and if he plays CF he has some value because of that being a more demanding position, but I don't really see Pie has having a higher ceiling.

 

There's no way you get Dunn for Pie straight up. One is a proven top of the league offensive performer. The other hasn't proven anything above AA. While OPS may not be an all-determining statistic, it's close when measuring offensive production.

 

If you want a more encompassing offensive stat, try RC. Dunn was 12th in the NL in runs created in 2005. He trailed Lee, Pujols, Bay, Giles, Delgado, Cabrera, Abreu, Kent, Ensberg, Wright, and Burrell.

 

We could have had Giles, but passed. While Abreu may appear to be a more complete player, he is much older than Dunn. Dunn has yet to enter his prime. While Abreu will experience a decline in the coming years, Dunn is likely to get better.

 

Dunn was 10th in the NL in win shares which does take into account all of his contributions. This places him ahead of Abreu.

 

Is Dunn worth a bunch of maybes....yes and it really doesn't matter the ceiling of those maybes. None of that group are can't miss, a-level prospects.[/url]

 

Burrell should have been a Cub target.

Posted

I would propose:

 

Pie, Hill, Williams, Welly, Guzman for Dunn + Freel.

 

I would then try to trade Walker + Ohman for Heilman because we would need another starter in April/May.

 

Pierre

Freel

Lee

Dunn

Aramis

Jones/Murton

Barrett

Cedeno

 

Z, Prior, Wood, Maddux, Miller or Heilman when everyone is healthy.

 

To start the season the rotation would be Z, Prior, Maddux, Heilman, Rusch.

 

Bullpen: Dempster, Howry, Williamson, Wuertz, Eyre, Rusch, Miller or Heilman

Posted
I would propose:

 

Pie, Hill, Williams, Welly, Guzman for Dunn + Freel.

 

I would then try to trade Walker + Ohman for Heilman because we would need another starter in April/May.

 

Pierre

Freel

Lee

Dunn

Aramis

Jones/Murton

Barrett

Cedeno

 

Z, Prior, Wood, Maddux, Miller or Heilman when everyone is healthy.

 

To start the season the rotation would be Z, Prior, Maddux, Heilman, Rusch.

 

Bullpen: Dempster, Howry, Williamson, Wuertz, Eyre, Rusch, Miller or Heilman

 

eww I would do a Walker for Heilman but Ohman is a cheap still pretty young lefty who had a great year last year and can only get better.

Posted
Pie is a boarderline top 20 prospect in all of baseball. Very good, very very good, but not a "can't miss".

I'm not saying that he is "can't miss" only that if he fulfills his potential, his ceiling is higher than Dunn's given his speed, incredible range in the OF, great arm, base stealing potential, etc. Those are all things that Dunn lacks. I agree completely that Pie's OPS will likely never be as good as Dunn's, but it could come close. At age 20, in 240 ABs, Pie put an OPS of .903 at AA West Tenn. When Dunn was 20, his OPS was .897 in 420 ABs at High-A Dayton. If Dunn continues to produce OPSs around .930-.950 like he has the last couple of seasons and Pie is producing around .870-.900 with the speed, shut down CF defense and great arm, who would you rather have? The thing is, Pie hasn't done it yet. So that is the trade off. Dunn who is a great power hitter but not much else for a kid who could be almost that and more. That's why I think it is a risky but basically fair trade.

 

Williams is a #5 right now, who could become a number 3 pitcher at some point. Guzman can't stay on the field.

You have just listed both players floors without balancing it out with their ceilings. Williams is only a fifth starter on the Cubs. He has a career ERA under 4 which he compiled as a very young man in the major leagues. If you put him on most other teams he is a third or fourth right now, and he is only 24. I agree with your Guzman statement, but you have to balance it out with if Angel ever does stay on the field, look out.

 

26 year old monsters who can hit 45-50 homers a year for the next 5 years with a .400 + OBP are special. If we could get him for just those prospects I would be thrilled. In reality we probably couldn't get Dunn at this point without losing Z or Prior.

The only way Dunn costs the Cubs Prior or Z is if Cincinnati is prepared to pay Dunn his price before he hits the open market. The premise this thread put forth assumed that the new Reds GM would be looking to move him because he knows he likely won't be able to afford him. So...

Posted
we are set at 1st for years with Lee so giving up Dopirak wouldn't be that bad.

To my knowledge, Lee hasn't signed an extension yet. And even if he had, that is no reason to include Dopirak in a trade unnecessarily especially when Dope's trade value is at its lowest.

 

We are pretty good on pitching depth. Guzman is injury prone, but it seems like he still has some pretty good value. Williams could either be the 5th starter on the big league team this year, the long man, or in AAA. Losing him wouldn't be that big of a deal. I really don't think that deal would be considered overpaying.

I think you are undervaluing Williams quite a bit. Since joining the Cubs, he put up an ERA of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.35. Now both of those numbers are pretty average, but then you have to take into account that the guy was 23 last season and pitching his 3rd season in the majors so he should improve. And he is only a 5th starter on the Cubs. There are several teams that would place him as their 3rd starter right now. Look how many starters had ERAs well over 4 last season. Williams is better than almost all of them not to mention that he is at or near the league minimum in salary. That's value.

Posted
I disagree that Pie's ceiling is higher than Dunn. I doubt Pie becomes a career 900+ OPS. Pie will be a better defender and if he plays CF he has some value because of that being a more demanding position, but I don't really see Pie has having a higher ceiling.

Why would Pie have to have a career OPS over .900 in order to have a higher ceiling than Dunn? I think Pie's ability to play CF ups his value a lot. If he could have an OPS above .850, have gold glove caliber range and play a shut down defensive CF with a great arm and great speed on the bases, he definitely surpasses Dunn's ceiling.

 

There's no way you get Dunn for Pie straight up. One is a proven top of the league offensive performer. The other hasn't proven anything above AA. While OPS may not be an all-determining statistic, it's close when measuring offensive production.

True, but baseball players do more than hit. I agree that production at the plate has more of an impact on a player's ability to help a team win games, but it seems like OPS is the only consideration in this comparison and Pie's other abilities are not being acknowledged.

 

But since we are talking OPS, at age 20, Pie had an OPS over .900 at AA, albeit in an injury shortened sample size. Dunn was in High-A at age 20 and his OPS was 6 points lower in a full season of ABs. I use this comparison not to say that Pie will be a better offensive player, only to show that it is very possible that he could come close.

 

If you want a more encompassing offensive stat, try RC. Dunn was 12th in the NL in runs created in 2005. He trailed Lee, Pujols, Bay, Giles, Delgado, Cabrera, Abreu, Kent, Ensberg, Wright, and Burrell.

 

We could have had Giles, but passed. While Abreu may appear to be a more complete player, he is much older than Dunn. Dunn has yet to enter his prime. While Abreu will experience a decline in the coming years, Dunn is likely to get better.

I was a huge proponent of signing Giles myself, but saying that Hendry passed is a bit presumptive. There is a lot more evidence that Giles passed on leaving San Diego. My only purpose in bring up Abreu was to provide an example of a complete player. I wrote in my original post that I would want Abreu at 25 or 26 years old.

 

Dunn was 10th in the NL in win shares which does take into account all of his contributions. This places him ahead of Abreu.

Could you tell me where I can read up on the composition of stats like runs created and win shares? I need to learn more about them.

 

Is Dunn worth a bunch of maybes....yes and it really doesn't matter the ceiling of those maybes. None of that group are can't miss, a-level prospects.

It most certainly does matter what a prospect's ceiling is. If you are a GM and you are trading for or giving up prospects in a deal, you'd better be evaluating what those player's ceilings are as well as their chances of reaching them.

 

Was 8th round pick Dontrelle Willis considered a can't miss, a-level prospect? What about Lou Brock? I think you are ignoring the possibilities of one or two of these guys fulfilling on their promise. Pie was 20 last year. When Dunn was 20, he hit .281 with an OPS of .897 against High-A pitching. Was he a can't miss prospect?

Posted
I disagree that Pie's ceiling is higher than Dunn. I doubt Pie becomes a career 900+ OPS. Pie will be a better defender and if he plays CF he has some value because of that being a more demanding position, but I don't really see Pie has having a higher ceiling.

Why would Pie have to have a career OPS over .900 in order to have a higher ceiling than Dunn? I think Pie's ability to play CF ups his value a lot. If he could have an OPS above .850, have gold glove caliber range and play a shut down defensive CF with a great arm and great speed on the bases, he definitely surpasses Dunn's ceiling.

 

There's no way you get Dunn for Pie straight up. One is a proven top of the league offensive performer. The other hasn't proven anything above AA. While OPS may not be an all-determining statistic, it's close when measuring offensive production.

True, but baseball players do more than hit. I agree that production at the plate has more of an impact on a player's ability to help a team win games, but it seems like OPS is the only consideration in this comparison and Pie's other abilities are not being acknowledged.

 

But since we are talking OPS, at age 20, Pie had an OPS over .900 at AA, albeit in an injury shortened sample size. Dunn was in High-A at age 20 and his OPS was 6 points lower in a full season of ABs. I use this comparison not to say that Pie will be a better offensive player, only to show that it is very possible that he could come close.

 

If you want a more encompassing offensive stat, try RC. Dunn was 12th in the NL in runs created in 2005. He trailed Lee, Pujols, Bay, Giles, Delgado, Cabrera, Abreu, Kent, Ensberg, Wright, and Burrell.

 

We could have had Giles, but passed. While Abreu may appear to be a more complete player, he is much older than Dunn. Dunn has yet to enter his prime. While Abreu will experience a decline in the coming years, Dunn is likely to get better.

I was a huge proponent of signing Giles myself, but saying that Hendry passed is a bit presumptive. There is a lot more evidence that Giles passed on leaving San Diego. My only purpose in bring up Abreu was to provide an example of a complete player. I wrote in my original post that I would want Abreu at 25 or 26 years old.

 

Dunn was 10th in the NL in win shares which does take into account all of his contributions. This places him ahead of Abreu.

Could you tell me where I can read up on the composition of stats like runs created and win shares? I need to learn more about them.

 

Is Dunn worth a bunch of maybes....yes and it really doesn't matter the ceiling of those maybes. None of that group are can't miss, a-level prospects.

It most certainly does matter what a prospect's ceiling is. If you are a GM and you are trading for or giving up prospects in a deal, you'd better be evaluating what those player's ceilings are as well as their chances of reaching them.

 

Was 8th round pick Dontrelle Willis considered a can't miss, a-level prospect? What about Lou Brock? I think you are ignoring the possibilities of one or two of these guys fulfilling on their promise. Pie was 20 last year. When Dunn was 20, he hit .281 with an OPS of .897 against High-A pitching. Was he a can't miss prospect?

 

My point is that there are certain players who make an imediate impact on a line-up. Players who consistently put up over 900 OPS are such players. Being able to trade for one of those players is rare. Being able to trade for one who has yet to reach his 27-32 age range peak is even rarer.

 

Will Pie be an all-star caliber player? We don't know. His numbers look good, but he has yet to improve his eye at the plate. Pie has as much of a chance of being Corey Patterson as he does being Kenny Lofton in his prime. With his eye at the plate, it's hard to tell if he will improve that or if his natural talents will overcome it. If he reaches his ceiling, could he be better than Dunn? Maybe. But since Dunn's performance offensively already place him in the upper echelon of outfielders and he is likely still improving, the odds of Pie reaching Dunn's class are slim, as they would be for any prospect, even those rated higher than Pie.

 

Furthermore, for all the low expectation guys like Dontrelle and Lou Brock, there are hundreds of top tier guys that failed. Some of these were players that received much higher grades than Pie. Many more reached the majors, but became nothing more than role players.

 

Surely, Pie may develop into an all-star caliber player. Guzman may solve his injury problems and become a Cy Young candidate. Dopirak may solve his strike zone issues and become a player in the mold of Richie Sexson. On the other hand, these guys may become nothing more than roster fillers or organizational flame-outs. Would I trade such a package for a 32-year old slugger? No.

 

But Dunn is 26, and he is already one of the premier offensive forces in the game. He's proven what he can do. The doubt has been erased. To get him, it's going to cost some high ceiling guys. The Reds have to think the deal is worth the risk.

 

I'm not doubting the ceilings of the guys we're giving up. I'm just doubting the probability that they reach those ceilings.

Posted
The premise this thread put forth assumed that the new Reds GM would be looking to move him because he knows he likely won't be able to afford him. So...

 

Actually, the premise has nothing to do with the Reds not being able to afford Dunn.

 

It's more to do with the fact that the new Reds GM realizes that the team as constructed cannot compete. They are likely a couple of years away from truly contending. They have a phenomenal offense, but no pitching. Furthermore, they have no true pitching prospects coming up the minor league pipeline. The cupboard is bare.

 

They could keep Dunn, but Dunn has shown little interest in signing a contract beyond his arbitration years. That means, he might not be around when they are able to right the ship. Also, in order to set things right, the team must refill that cupboard. In other words, they have to acquire some pitching that will be around for 5-6 years or so.

 

Dunn is the best chip they have to do that. He alone could bring them 3-4 high ceiling prospects. If they could trade Griffey for another two, then they would be well on their way to re-stocking things.

Posted
Actually, the premise has nothing to do with the Reds not being able to afford Dunn. It's more to do with the fact that the new Reds GM realizes that the team as constructed cannot compete.

 

They could keep Dunn, but Dunn has shown little interest in signing a contract beyond his arbitration years.

 

Dunn is the best chip they have to do that. He alone could bring them 3-4 high ceiling prospects. If they could trade Griffey for another two, then they would be well on their way to re-stocking things.

 

But if the new management shows a commitment to righting the ship, that might persuade Dunn to stick around. If not, then I totally agree that the smart thing to do is trade Dunn now and get as much future talent for him as possible.

[/i]

Posted

We could have had Giles, but passed.

[/url]

 

It's comments like this that always leave me scratching my head.

 

You don't know that.

Posted

We could have had Giles, but passed.

 

It's comments like this that always leave me scratching my head.

 

You don't know that.

 

What doesn't he know? That they could have had Giles, or that they passed? We know they could have had Giles as much as we know they could have had any other free agent. And it's pretty safe to say they passed. I don't see the head scratching.

Posted

We could have had Giles, but passed.

[/url]

 

It's comments like this that always leave me scratching my head.

 

You don't know that.

 

Ok...so assume we couldn't have had Giles; that further strenghtens my point that it is very difficult to acquire players with a 900+ OPS who become true difference makers in a line-up. Therefore, when one becomes available, you don't hold the deal up because the other team insists on some "B" graded prospects.

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