Vance Breaks Down the NL Central

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I know the Brewers have some good talent but I would be shocked if they won 90. I'm not sure how many people outside of Illinios and Wisconsin are calling the Brewers "overrated".

 

Most of the assessments on the Astros in this thread have been fair. Most.

 

Astros- At this point you cannot expect Ensberg to hit the way he did last year. The outfield is the worst in the division(now that berkman is heading to first) and the relief pitching behind lidge is average.

 

I'm not going to claim that the Astros have an amazing outfield. While it's not spectacular, it's pretty respectable.

 

Taveras .291/.324/.341

Pierre .276/.326/.354

 

Statistically, Pierre and Taveras were pretty much equal at the plate last year. Pierre's had better years so he could improve. Taveras as a rookie got his feet wet so he could improve as well. He needs to get on base at a better clip. Seeing as though he skipped AAA and in his 409 ABs in AA his OBP was .402, I expect he'll make some improvements. He's a very good centerfielder with a great arm.

 

Wilson .261/.329/.443

Jones .249/.319/.438

 

Again, not a huge difference statistically last year. Wilson's knees are a concern but if he can stay healthy. He and Jones should be equals at the plate.

 

I'm not going to do a statistical comparison of Murton and Lane. Murton's stats over 140 ABs as a rookie don't translate to a full season. I haven't seen the guy play but seeming as though he spent all of 2004 in A ball hitting 13 HRs in 460 ABs, I'm a little skeptical that he can hit anywhere near what he did last year for the Cubs.

 

Anyway, my point is not that my player is better than your player. My point is that for Cubs' fans to be dogging on the Astros OF is, how do you say...Pot meet Kettle.

 

As far as the bullpen goes, Qualls and Wheeler are EXCELLENT relievers. The Astros have so much faith in Qualls that Lidge almost was traded to Baltimore. Rumor has it if the Astros can get a quality bat, he's the bait. The rest of the bullpen is nothing special: Two decent lefties in Miller and Gallo and a veteran righy in Springer. The Astros bullpen should be excellent again. Other than a couple of monumental homers given up by Lidge, the Astros pen was fantastic in the playoffs.

 

My biggest concern is that one of the young starters needs to step it up, especially if Roger doesn't come back. I'm also not convinced that Ensberg can keep up his allstar production. In short, the bullpen is really solid, the outfield is respectable, the offense is mediocre and the bottom of the rotation could pretty bad.

 

First of all, the Cubs have a terrible outfield. I don't know who's is worse between ours and the Stros, but ours is anemic at best. On Taveras, he put up a .400 OBP at AA because he hit .335 with a .400+ BABIP. Needless to say he's not going to do that at the major league level. He hasn't hit for any power since Rookie ball, but he should improve some plate discipline in the coming years. Problem is, he's much like Pierre in that his performance is very much BABIP driven, and he had a very high BABIP last year. He'll be a below average offensive player his entire career most likely. On the relievers, Qualls had a good year last year, but his minor league career doesn't inspire confidence to be able to consistently do that. Maybe he's made an adjustment, I dunno. Wheeler was very fortunate last year, as evidenced by is FIPERA and BABIP numbers. He's older with a worse past than Qualls, so I'd say he's a strong candidate to regress. How far, I don't know. That's my take, and please please please do not respond with comparisons to Cubs players or the like, which you did with the outfield in the previous posts(although I see why with the 'worst OF' comment). They aren't relevant to the discussion, and there are a multitude of threads where we can discuss how crappy the Cubs will be this year.

[Mike Scott]

the cubs outfield is horrible, if you compare your outfield to the cubs outfield and you think they are similar, that means your outfield is horrible too.

 

My comparison of the outfields was only in response to that first guy who seemed pretty confident in his statement that the Astros have the wrost OF in the division. Nothing more or less.

[Mike Scott]

On the relievers, Qualls had a good year last year, but his minor league career doesn't inspire confidence to be able to consistently do that. Maybe he's made an adjustment, I dunno. Wheeler was very fortunate last year, as evidenced by is FIPERA and BABIP numbers. He's older with a worse past than Qualls, so I'd say he's a strong candidate to regress. How far, I don't know. That's my take,

 

I'm too tired to make a lengthy response. I can't defend Wheeler all that much but Qualls is the real deal.

[treebird]

the cubs outfield is horrible, if you compare your outfield to the cubs outfield and you think they are similar, that means your outfield is horrible too.

 

My comparison of the outfields was only in response to that first guy who seemed pretty confident in his statement that the Astros have the wrost OF in the division. Nothing more or less.

 

haha, im dumb, i didn't see anybody say that. my apologies.

[Jake]

Wow. We don't have the worst outfield in the division.

 

Based on this, we'er 4th at worst! :shock:

[Andy]

Wow. We don't have the worst outfield in the division.

 

Based on this, we'er 4th at worst! :shock:

You have Bay, Craig Wilson, Jody Gerut, and Burnitz - that's pretty damn good.

[Ender]

I'll start by saying I agree the Brewers are still a year away. The team needs to get more experience before I can actually pick them to win the wild card and I would like to see a stronger Bullpen and another frontline SP added. Having said that I think they are being underrated by some and obviously overrated by others in this thread.

 

C- Miller is an average C, Moeller is a terrible backup

 

1B - Fielder is thought to have as much potential as D. Lee does, he is supposed to have that type of ability. I'm sure it will take a number of years to realize it but I fully expect him to match Overbay's stats this year.

 

2B- Weeks is another future star. His numbers last year were outstanding until a thumb injury killed the 2nd half of his season. The thumb was bad enough he was dropping the bat after some of his swings. This position is upgraded this season.

 

SS- Hardy missed most of 2004 with a shoulder injury that he wasn't fully recovered from to start 2005, he also mostly skipped AAA. His second half stats are almost identical to his MLE's from the minors. While I'm not going to assume he'll fully repeat it yet, that is what his future stats most likely will be. This position is upgraded this season and if I were a betting man he'd be my pick for best overall SS in the division.

 

3B - Koskie/Hall - This combo will put up extremely good numbers. Koskie still hits righties very well and letting him have time off agianst lefties should hopefully keep him healthy. This position is upgraded this season.

 

OF - Jenkins/Lee/Clark - The veterans of the team should combine for roughly the same stats as last year. This position stayed steady.

 

Bench - Hall/Hart/Gross is a huge upgrade over Durrington/Magruder/Helms

 

SP1 - Sheets - hopefully stays healthy, if he does this position is upgraded

SP2 - Davis - Stats stayed steady, position should remain the same

SP3 - Capuano - I expect a slight regression, not huge but some

SP4 - Ohka - Underrated pitcher

SP5 - Bush - Huge upgrad over the chuckleheads the Brewers marched out there last year who combined for over a 5 ERA out of the 5th SP slot

 

Bullpen - mostly the same overall.

 

So while the Brewers may not have made a huge splash in the FA market, they didn't lose anything significant and they have upgraded a number of positions. Their pythagorean record suggests they underperfomed with 81 wins last year so I think 85 wins or so are in order with an upside of 90 if Fielder and Weeks explode earlier than expected.

 

Yost makes some mistakes, he plays small ball at the wrong times and he can have some problems running the bullpen but I still give him the benefit of the doubt as a relatively new manager, the team seems to really play well for him and he manages the SP and positional players pretty well.

Edited January 21, 2006 by Ender

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Welcome!

[stitchface]

that brewers starting rotation does not look like a 90 win team to me. the bullpen will have to be very very good.

[Ender]

I also would not peg it for 90 wins, but I think part of the problem is they aren't household names.

 

 

Sheets - 2.70, 3.33 ERA last 2 years

Davis - 3.39, 3.84 ERA last 2 years

Capuano - 4.99(rookie), 3.99 ERA last 2 years

Ohka - 3.40, 4.04 ERA last 2 years

Bush - 3.64, 4.49 ERA last 2 years (in the AL east)

 

All 5 pitchers have posted sub 4 ERA's one of the past 2 years. 4 of the 5 are still under 30 and with Davis being only 30 they are all in the years where they stats should improve not regress in general. Each of the past 2 seasons those 5 have combined for a sub 4.00 ERA which isn't something most teams can say.

 

I think Capuano or Bush needs to take a step forward and become a real #2/#3 to pull it off but as I said, I have them penciled in at 85 wins with 90 being the everything goes right upside.

 

Lets say best case is they all repeat the better year listed above... you have 2.70, 3.39, 3.99, 3.40, 3.64 ERA rotation... that is a 90 win team rotation for sure. I'm not holding my breath for it to happen but i think the potential is there.

 

Lets be more realistic and say each one ends up between the better and worse year listed. 3.02, 3.62, 4.50, 3.72, 4.07. Thats still a pretty nice looking rotation. As long as the starters don't regress which given their ages they most likely won't, I think the SP is still above average, just lacking a true #2 guy.

[abuck1220]

that brewers starting rotation does not look like a 90 win team to me. the bullpen will have to be very very good.

 

if weaver's really interested in a one year deal, the brewers should jump all over it. could get the team to 90 wins, but if he doesn't you could trade him at the deadline.