2006 Cubs Cool-Aid Optimism Post

[Knyption]

Hi guys,

 

Used to post a lot, I have been lurking and reading the site, and keeping up to date with what has been going on.

 

I think its good time for an optimistic post about the cubs, even though many of us (myself included) have scars from cubby let downs in the past.

 

Upgrades for next year.

 

Pierre > Corey - This is a no brainer, even though Pierre is not the best leadoff hitter, and his OBP is not in the high .300's, it will be nice to have a steady leadoff hitter in '06. We know what to expect everyday; a stolen base from time to time, some slap hits, a couple doubles, and speedy outfielder. I think this will stabilize the Lineup as Baker won't need to expirement leading off the game. He could have forked more cash for Furcal but Pierre fits the need. Considering what was available, this was a big upgrade over Patterson in CF.

 

Grade A-

 

Murton > Holly and Platoon: I really think this kid will do well, I have read the threads breaking down his performance, and noticed how there is good chance he will not sustain his Avg and Obp through a whole season, that said I think .280 avg 20 dingers 70 rbi's and a .340 obp is not out of the question. Again like Pierre, if this is stable production, it sure beats lasts years mix and match mumbo jumbo. Hopefully things turn out the right way and Dusty doesn't do another Dustyism with this kid.

 

Grade B

 

Jones marginally better than Burnitz: Jones is speedier, covers more ground in the OF more accurate arm. He K's alot but can put up some numbers with the wind blowing out. Also one thing he may have to his advantage is that on the first couple of months, the scouts may have not looked hard at his swing, since he was in the AL up to this point. Perhaps the same thing can be said about him vs. NL pitchers since he hasn't seen much of them but I will give him the benefit of the doubt. I think he'll have a hot first half and fizzle in August but hopefully we can bring in a solid 4th OF mid season to switch off platooning with Murton and Jones.

 

Grade C - Average

 

Cedeno > Neifi/Nomar: Many people are skeptical on this kid, but he has been improving over the past few years. His glove is golden and as long as he keeps his swing short he should hit for contact. .280 .330 .415 would be decent as a potentially gold glove caliber middle IF, IMO. He has good speed to set the table batting 8th in late innings and may ease into the 2nd spot vs. some pitchers he has had success against. Lets hope he starts off hot so Dustyism's dont start to kick in.

 

Grade B-

 

Bulllpen: Dempster a whole year, expensive yet solid pickups in Howry and Erye(sp?), and the rest of the bunch. This is much much better, need I stress much better than last year. How many blown leads did we lose with last year? I don't know the number but from what I watched on TV, it was enough to warrant spending this kind of money IMO. Having the 7th 8th 9th basically solidified will do wonders for this team. I think one of the worst problems about last year and the year before was too much inconsistancy with people's roles.

 

Grade: A

 

I know this is a trademark Dustyism but still if you put yourself in some of the players position, its hard to get mentally prepared for a game if you dont know what you'll be doing day to day, let alone a whole season. Take a real life job for example, lets say your in customer service.

 

You answer phones do PO's etc. one day then the next day they tell you to make sales calls; thats sales. Then the day after they ask you to work with quality control; thats QC; then back to customer service.

 

Sure that may be a managers job in the real world. But Dusty is the manager and the clubhouse leaders are the managers assistant not the players. If you are put out of place in your real profession you probably feel akward doing something else. You have a mind set, you do A B C D and sometimes E. Same thing for the players.

 

Offense Rating: B- Last year was terrible, more consistancy will bring better results. They arent better than St. Louis but still they will do just enough to win if the pitching is good

 

Starters: This is the enigma, we dont know what to expect health wise. Could be A+ could be C+. Anyways Ill give everyone the benefit of the doubt and predict the 1-6 innings on any given day will be solid enough to at least have a chance to win

 

Bullpen: This should be drastically better. A

 

Overall, even though I kind of got off topic a couple of times, I think the team has improved enough to contend, they are by no means a shoe-in for the playoffs but they have a legitimate chance.

 

In terms of Hendry, Ill give him a B- this offseason, he didnt get marquee players but he did fill "SOME" holes.

 

Baker is the wild card.

 

At least this season will be interesting to watch.

[Butterscup1679666578]

I envy you and your optimism. All I can think about is Jacque Jones and Neifi Perez starting almost every day.

[otis89]

I envy you and your optimism. All I can think about is Jacque Jones and Neifi Perez starting almost every day.

 

If we keep Walker and he and Cedeno produce, Dusty will be forced to bench Neifi. (hopefully)

[FergieJ31]

Hi guys,

 

Used to post a lot, I have been lurking and reading the site, and keeping up to date with what has been going on.

 

I think its good time for an optimistic post about the cubs, even though many of us (myself included) have scars from cubby let downs in the past....

 

To manufacture optimism, I look no further than the Cub's starting position players in 2003: 1/2 year of no one significant at 3B, below average production out of 1B, a weak hitting catcher (strong defensively of course) and 1 full year of Agony.

 

Baseball is a funny game: studies put the W-L standard deviation over the course of an entire season at a little over 6 games. It wouldn't take much luck, plus 550-600 healthy innings from the horses, to put the Cubs in playoff contention.

[back2backjax]

it's nice to see an optimistic post instead of all the ones from some self-hating cubs fans. every team goes into the season with question marks but for some reason people on here think only the cubs have "ifs" in 2006. take the yankees - their starting rotation sucks and damon has my arm strength to cover a cavernous CF. do you think anyone in NYC truly feels secure that the yanks are going to the WS?

 

yes, we will need good years from murton, cedeno and whoever plays 2B. we'll also need jacque to get some key hits. he can K all he wants so long as his hits aren't the sammy sosa-type: no runners on or the game long since decided.

 

if the rotation is healthy and howry/eyre don't pull a rojas/hawkins on us, then we'll be good enough that a good deadline deal or two could push us over the edge.

[Roast]

Alright, After going to the caravan a couple days ago, and listening to baker talk about Actually starting murton, cedeno, and walker (AND batting him second) I admit I am getting a bit optimistic.

 

We could potentially have a pretty good team. Our lineup has the ability to score a lot of runs if its set up right, I think something like this would be nice:

 

Pierre

Walker

Lee

Aram

Murton

Jones

Cedeno

Barrett

PITCHER

 

Also, if wood can manage to not miss much time (be back by the end of april) our Rotation wont be half bad either. AS LONG AS RUSCH DOESNT START.

 

Z

Prior

Wood

Williams

Maddux

 

or While wood is out:

 

Z

Prior

Williams

Maddux

Guzman/hill/hopefully not rusch.

 

Furthermore, our bench is better because we dont have Macias, and HOPEFULLY neifi will stay on the bench.

 

Our bullpen has what seems to be a solid closer and a few new faces.

 

IF Dusty keeps to his word and starts Walker @ second batting second, starts murton, starts cedeno, keeps neifi on the bench, and shows some sort of coherency, we have a decent chance at, at least winning the wild card.

 

Thats all the optimism you'll get out of me.

[TB_11]

Our season rests now on our starting pitching. Our offense isn't bad, but it's not good enough to support anything less than a fantastic starting pitching crew. If we can get 30+ starts out of Prior and Zambrano, have Maddux return to being a sub-4.00 pitcher, and Wililams and Rusch/Hill can pitch up to their potentials, we'll have a great shot at the playoffs.

 

Don't know if it will happen, but in the spirit of this thread I'll predict that it does.

[Houston_Cub_Fan]

Right now, I think the only wrong turn has been Jones. If we had a real RF, this team would be pretty good. While I doubt we will see an MVP calibre season from Lee again, I'll almost garuntee he will surpass his RBI numbers from last year. Basically, that will be the major difference in the offense: table setters in front of Lee and Aram. Hopefully the young guns will produce, but ultimatly they're no worse than our options last year if they don't. As always it will come down to the health of the starting staff and the solidity of the pen.

 

War pitching and defense (and benching Nefi)

[LuckyPup]

Guys, I have been one of the most vocally negative on this board about the upcoming season but I got a dose of perspective yesterday afternoon-

 

A friend of mine was diagnosed with Brain Cancer and given less than a year to live-Not to be a downer to anyone, but it made me realize that i should not put so much emphasis on things and maybe just enjoy my Cubbies again-Life is so fragile-if you don't think so ask me how old my friend is-19. There are more important things than bashing Baker and Hendry, and I'm glad I have learned this-I wish i could have learned it a different way but that is life- I now share your optimism and just hope i am around in 6months to watch the ivy blow in the wind-

[FergieJ31]

Our season rests now on our starting pitching. Our offense isn't bad, but it's not good enough to support anything less than a fantastic starting pitching crew. If we can get 30+ starts out of Prior and Zambrano, have Maddux return to being a sub-4.00 pitcher, and Wililams and Rusch/Hill can pitch up to their potentials, we'll have a great shot at the playoffs.

 

Don't know if it will happen, but in the spirit of this thread I'll predict that it does.

 

I agree, and I'd be happy if Kerry came back to throw at least 3/4 of the year. Expectations are low enough for him that if/when he comes back, it's like trading for an ace. I predict Guzman will be brought up for the stretch run, and he is the real deal when he's healthy.

 

More cause for optimism: the enthusiasm and talent of the kids ... I'm sure a lot of folks here remember 1989: (but let's not mention Walton's & Smith's ho-hum careers post-'89)

 

11/8/1989

IN THE NEWS: Cubs OF Jerome Walton wins the National League Rookie of the Year Award, collecting 22 of 24 first-place votes to defeat teammate Dwight Smith. They are the first NL teammates to finish 1-2 in the voting since the Phillies Jack Sanford and Ed Bouchee in 1957. Walton is the first Cub to win rookie honors since Billy Williams, in 1961.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If this is the line-up:

(In parenthesis OBP/SLG past three yr avg- 2005 for Murton and Cedeno as there is no 3-year number)

 

CF Pierre (354/378)

2b Walker (345/452)

1b Lee (385/559)

3b Ramirez (350/532)

RF Jones (322/443)

LF Murton (386/521)

C Barrett (328/467)

SS Cedeno (356/375)

 

We may not be in horrible condition. We'd be counting on Pierre and Jones moving more toward their averages than what they did last season and we'd need Murton and Cedeno to look like the players they were last season.

 

It's not a phenomenal line-up, but with Pierre, Walker, Lee and Ramirez the top four should be fine.

 

Now for the rotation: (Three-year ERA/BAA)

 

SP Zambrano (3.05/.225)

SP Prior (3.23/234)

SP Wood (3.54/219)

SP Maddux (4.08/2.71)

SP Rusch (4.77/297)

or

SP Williams (3.92/252)

 

If Williams replaces Rusch and Zambrano, Prior, and Wood are healthy then the rotation would be as strong as any out there. While Maddux's numbers aren't good, there better than average as a number five. I think Williams numbers are as strong as many number three starters. Wood, Prior, and Zambrano all can pitch like a number one.

 

If five of these pitchers can pitch to their three-year averages and stay healthy, our pitching will be good.

 

I like the look of the bullpen with

 

CL Dempster

RHP Howry

LHP Eyre

RHP Williamson

LHP Ohman

RHP Wuertz

and hopefully Rusch as swing man with Williams in the rotation.

 

I think with that pen, we would be able to hold down the opposition on most days from the seventh inning on.

 

The offense isn't strong, but if Walker starts over Neifi or Hairston and the rotation is healthy, then optimisitcally the Cubs could win the division.

 

That's a lot of "if's" that have to happen right now.

[marc_foust]

There are alot of ifs heading into this year. But there are some things that are in the cubs favor.

 

Rusch has been pretty good early as a starter for the cubs. Before being pulled to the pen and back he puts up pretty good numbers and he should be a decent sub for Wood.

 

Williams imo can be a very good #3 pitcher for this team. If he pitches well, Z and Prior stay healthy, we get 12+ wins from Maddux then whatever we get from Wood will be the determining factor.

 

Pierre is an upgrade over anything we had hit leadoff last year.

 

I dont think Hendry can find a suitor for Walker so he should be batting second.

 

Murton and Cedeno are starting.

 

Jones is at least a slight upgrade over burnitz, possibly a huge upgrade.

 

 

 

I think that the team assembled right now will keep us at least in contention till the break. Then Hendry can pull a fleecing for either a starter or a platoon mate for Jones if neccesary.

 

If there is one thing that Hendry is capable of it is the midseason fleecing that we all love so much.

[Knyption]

Agreed.

 

Hendry may not be the best in the offseason, but sometimes it seems like things he was working on in the offseason turn into midseason fleecings.

 

Who knows, if we can get a strong bench guy, or another starter for some prospects thats aren't highly touted but are having great seasons, we never know.

 

The cubs nickname should really be the Whatif's

[UK1679666180]

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-060116cubs,1,1301681.story?coll=cs-cubs-headlines

 

Good to see Prior refining his mechanics.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I think people need to get off Hendry's back regarding Jones (my opinion, not a declarative statement). What other options were there? Giles had no interest in going anywhere but staying in SD. Abreu was not a realistic option, unless you were willing to trade a bucket full of players (and Hendry wasn't). Huff would be nice, but if Tampa is intransigent and only wants two super-prospects, most people here would die if a nice, but non-superstar OF like Huff was brought here for Pie and Guzman (for example). Brad Wilkerson is the only OF obviously available in trade (since he was dealt) that MIGHT have been a MODEST upgrade on Jones--and Wilkerson would have cost, again, valuable prospects.

 

So here was the realistic pool Hendry had to choose from: Jacques Jones, Juan Encarnacion, Reggie Sanders, Jeromy Burnitz, Richard Hidalgo, Preston Wilson. Yikes. In my book, all these guys are roughly equivalent in that they're mediocre, but serviceable. Of all of them, Jones has the benefit of speed and a history of reliability. He's also the youngest of the bunch other than Encarnacion.

 

So, am I all excited about Jones? Nope, though I think he'll be acceptable if he sits half the time when LHP starts against the Cubs. But I don't see any other reasonable alternative that would be a big improvement over Jones, so I don't see anything to get worked up over, either.

 

As for another poster's comment--so long as Neifi is not a regular starter, and Walker stays or Lugo is acquired, then I am satisfied. I think the offense will be perfectly capable of being competitive with anything St Louis or Houston or Milwaukee can throw out there.

[rocket]

I'd personally prefer Reggie Sanders or Preston Wilson considering the contracts they signed.

[Cubfanintheknow]

Even with a less-than perfect roster (and that's probably being a little kind), the Cubs ON PAPER are better than most teams in the National League. I'd rate the Mets, Braves and Cardinals ahead of the Cubs and even with the Phillies and Astros. So it's not necessarily a bad place to be.

 

There are a lot of things that have to go right in order for the Cubs to contend, namely maintaining a healthy starting rotation. But it also helps that the other contenders have some question marks, too.

 

At least the Cubs have a chance in 2006. That's more than can be said for a lot of NL teams.

[Balsa]

I think people need to get off Hendry's back regarding Jones ....

 

I agree with your entire post 100%. Plus, I see a weakened NL Central, with the possible exception of the Brew Crew, who remain about the same. I'm vaguely optimistic about making the playoffs here.

[TrueBlueCubFan]

With the upgrades to the bullpen & a lead-off man in Pierre & 30 starts from both Z & Prior & 25 from Wood the Cubs are a legit WC contender, if not a NL Central favorite.