Matt Lawton

[kroth1342]

Would anyone else give Matt Lawton another chance?

 

If he is healthy this year, he seems to be a possible cheap, productive pickup. Coming off his positive test, his price will be very low. I would have given him another shot to be a corner OF if we needed one.

[Keener98]

Lawton signed with Seattle today.

[Sabermetrician]

Biggest bargain of the offseason IMO.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

What a paycut. From 7.75MM to 400K. Wow!

[Keener98]

Thats what happens when you take steroids. I heard on the radio today that Lawton said he took the Steroid in Sept when he was with the Yankees because he was struggling so bad. Then the very next day he got tested.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Thats what happens when you take steroids. I heard on the radio today that Lawton said he took the Steroid in Sept when he was with the Yankees because he was struggling so bad. Then the very next day he got tested.

 

I have a friend who confessed to his boss, fellow co-workers, and his mother that the day before his random urine test was the only time he had ever smoked weed. I believe he smoked more than Dave Chappelle and Snoop combined for several years leading up to the test.

[treebird]

i wish he was going to be our right fielder instead of jones.

[badger1679666666]

i wish he was going to be our right fielder instead of jones.

 

There is a good possibility his #'s will drop tremendously. I'll pass.

[imb]

i wish he was going to be our right fielder instead of jones.

 

There is a good possibility his #'s will drop tremendously. I'll pass.

 

But if they do, theyll only drop to around or maaaaybe just below Jacque Jones level.

 

And they will only do it for one year, for 450k, instead of sucking for 3 years at over 5per.

 

It's not like Jones is gonna push us over the top, just another example of how mind blowingly bad the Jones signing was.

[treebird]

i wish he was going to be our right fielder instead of jones.

 

There is a good possibility his #'s will drop tremendously. I'll pass.

 

if his obp drops tremendously, it'll just look like jacque jones'.

[badger1679666666]

i wish he was going to be our right fielder instead of jones.

 

There is a good possibility his #'s will drop tremendously. I'll pass.

 

if his obp drops tremendously, it'll just look like jacque jones'.

 

True but i was more referring to his power #'s. We already have a weak OF powerwise, I don't think we can afford to have Murton as our only "power hitter" in the OF. At least Jones can jack 20-25, maybe more in Wrigley.

 

I'm rationalizing I know, and I don't want Jones at all, but I don't think I want lawton either.

[DougDascenzo]

at least Jockstrap has SOME power tho...

[imb]

Id take 10HR and a .350obp over 20HR and a .320obp

[Hosak8]

Id take 10HR and a .350obp over 20HR and a .320obp

 

Why? You'd give up a minimum of 10 guaranteed runs for 18 (approx.) more appearances on base? Even if you only scored half the time (which is very high... 25% is more like it), that would still be less than those extra 10 homers.

 

Makes no sense. That's why I think some folks overrate OBP. Not because OBP is a bad stat... it's a great one. But some people are so in love with it that they don't stop to even think about what they're saying. a MINIMUM of 10 guaranteed runs for approximately 4-5? NO thanks.

 

Give me 20 and .320 over 10 and .350.

[Lefty]

Id take 10HR and a .350obp over 20HR and a .320obp

 

Why? You'd give up a minimum of 10 guaranteed runs for 18 (approx.) more appearances on base? Even if you only scored half the time (which is very high... 25% is more like it), that would still be less than those extra 10 homers.

 

Makes no sense. That's why I think some folks overrate OBP. Not because OBP is a bad stat... it's a great one. But some people are so in love with it that they don't stop to even think about what they're saying. a MINIMUM of 10 guaranteed runs for approximately 4-5? NO thanks.

 

Give me 20 and .320 over 10 and .350.

 

First of all, 10 HRs is worth 14 runs. But by definition your 20 HR guy will have a higher SLG. To get from .320 to .350 OBP would be about 20 walks over a full season. That's about 7 runs. It's also 14 or 15 fewer outs, and that's another run or two. So in this example your man is only worth 6 or 7 more runs.

 

And all this assumes the 10 HRs is replaced by 20 walks. If a guy hits 10 doubles and 20 walks, the .350 OBP guy is clearly superior. You have to use one of the Runs Created formula, I have a good one in the Jaun Pierre thread, to compare two players.

 

Remember a walk may be the first, middle, or last piece of a chain of offense. It is incorrect to estimate how often a player who walks will score as the summation of your analysis.

[BigbadB]

Id take 10HR and a .350obp over 20HR and a .320obp

 

Why? You'd give up a minimum of 10 guaranteed runs for 18 (approx.) more appearances on base? Even if you only scored half the time (which is very high... 25% is more like it), that would still be less than those extra 10 homers.

 

Makes no sense. That's why I think some folks overrate OBP. Not because OBP is a bad stat... it's a great one. But some people are so in love with it that they don't stop to even think about what they're saying. a MINIMUM of 10 guaranteed runs for approximately 4-5? NO thanks.

 

Give me 20 and .320 over 10 and .350.

 

Boston had 19 more XBH's than the Cubs last year. Boston scored 207 more runs than the Cubs last year. Think about that for a second.

 

Since it's impossible to drive in 207 more runs with 19 XBH's, what would have gotten the Cubs there? AVG? Could the 69 more hits that Boston had on the Cubs last year have driven in 207 more runs? Partially.

 

Could the real reason that the Cubs scored 207 less runs have a lot to do with the 234 walk differential? Cubs walked 419 times, Boston walked 653 times.

 

SLG, AVG and timely hitting all factor in as well, but if you don't get guys on base, they aren't going to score.

 

OBP isn't the be all end all, but construct an 8 man team with .350 OBP throughout, and your team will score a lot of runs.

 

Boston had a team OBP of .357 last year in scoring 910 runs.

The Cubs had a team OBP of .324 last year in scoring 703.

 

Without Dusty's help, a couple of more respectable OBP guys at the top of the order could have definitely improved run generation. But,

 

I'll take the guy with the .350 OBP. Those 18 extra times on base are 18 more tries for Derrek Lee or Aramis Ramirez to drive him in. That's 18 more times the defense has to avoid throwing a ball away, etc.....

 

6 players x 18 extra times on base per year is 108 more times on base.

 

There are a lot of other good things that come from drawing walks and using patience at the plate. Middle relievers get involved earlier, which allows the offense to tee off on guys who aren't good enough to secure a job in the starting rotation. The more pitches you take, the better the chance you get better pitches to hit.

 

It's not just OBP. It's pitch recognition, patience and persistence to find a way to get on base. If you don't do these things, you end up with a station to station offense like the offense the Cubs have been fielding for years.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is an incomplete example. There's a reason that Juan Pierre and Corey Patterson were equals offensively in '04. Pierre's vast lack of power was counteracted by Corey's lesser gap in OBP. It's impossible to say "I'll take .320 OBP with 20 HR over .350 with 10 HR" because those times on base are not created equal.