The Cubs Are "One Team To Watch" In Dylan Cease Sweepstakes

Would you guys consider Amaya as the main major league piece? 

Mets are in discussion with Padres for Cease now.

17 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Mets are in discussion with Padres for Cease now.

What would the Met equivalent to Shaw be? Sproat? Only Shaw is ready to step in day one and has a longer and more consistent history of dominating at every level. I can't imagine Jett Williams would be the headliner and I can't imagine they'd even consider trading Vientos.

14 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

What would the Met equivalent to Shaw be? Sproat? Only Shaw is ready to step in day one and has a longer and more consistent history of dominating at every level. I can't imagine Jett Williams would be the headliner and I can't imagine they'd even consider trading Vientos.

I don't believe they're going to get the equivalent from the Mets, if they wish to trade Cease the asking price has to be reasonable.

"The starting ask for Cease is Matt Shaw+? That's interesting, because the starting ask for Matt Shaw is Dylan Cease+, so...."

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

What would the Met equivalent to Shaw be? Sproat? Only Shaw is ready to step in day one and has a longer and more consistent history of dominating at every level. I can't imagine Jett Williams would be the headliner and I can't imagine they'd even consider trading Vientos.

If they want Shaw I'll pass, im not giving up Shaw for 1 year of Cease(FA).

Doesn’t look like. Cease to Mets is all that likely for now , due to asking price 

Interestingly the Padres signed King today to a 2025 contract with a 2026 mutual option. We know those never get picked up but could be a way for the Padres to keep him and save 2025 money

Yeah Shaw is untouchable for me, especially after trading Cam Smith. 

22 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Yeah Shaw is untouchable for me, especially after trading Cam Smith. 

Really more Paredes for me. I don't know if I put Shaw on a different level than like, Owen Caissie. 144 wRC in 35 games as a 22 year old vs 121 wRC in 127 games as a 21 year old. There's a gap there, position-wise, K rate wise, etc. But it's really just their respective fits on the roster/in the organization. Losing Caissie doesn't really hurt the 2025 Chicago Cubs, losing Shaw does to a pretty significant degree. 

Preller continues to ask for the moon -

There’s a lot of competition for Cease. Preller isn’t going to get his initial asks, but this feels like a situation where one team will eventually fold and meet Preller in the middle with a prospect package that will “feel” like an overpay. Part of me thinks the upper end SP market in its entirety is just so unattainable right now, which is adding more reason for Jed and company’s pursuit of Bregman. “One in the hand is worth two in the bush” sort of thing. Idk 

Thought they needed to shed payroll? Should we insinuate they might trade Cease now? Or no?

4 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Thought they needed to shed payroll? Should we insinuate they might trade Cease now? Or no?

Yeah I just posted in the general thread but Passan speculated just yesterday about the Padres signing Pivetta and then trading one of their guys.

4 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Thought they needed to shed payroll? Should we insinuate they might trade Cease now? Or no?

He's only making $4m. I would guess this means they will definitely trade a SP though. And this is their way of getting him into their current budget.

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

He's only making $4m. I would guess this means they will definitely trade a SP though. And this is their way of getting him into their current budget.

I was distracted by college basketball and totally missed the part where he’s only making $4M. 
 

It does make sense to get him so cheaply that way he can replace the pitcher that gets traded while shedding that payroll, should they trade one. 

Just now, JD94 said:

I was distracted by college basketball and totally missed the part where he’s only making $4M. 

Who? King? I thought he counted for $7.5 against the cap. Are we sure he is only at $4M? 

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Who? King? I thought he counted for $7.5 against the cap. Are we sure he is only at $4M? 

Not King, but Nick Pivetta. His contract will pay him out only $4m in 2025. That's not differed money, literally, his salary+signing bonus in 2025 is $4m. There's more money on the back end if he opts in, but he's basically free next year for SD in a cash-flow perspective.

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Who? King? I thought he counted for $7.5 against the cap. Are we sure he is only at $4M? 

Pivetta

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Who? King? I thought he counted for $7.5 against the cap. Are we sure he is only at $4M? 

Given the ownership turmoil it seems very likely the Padres care more about real dollars than the cap.  So Pivetta and Kings salaries being less than their cap hits is certainly a feature not a bug.

The thing is, if they don't drop salary, Pivetta will cost them about 11 million in real dollars this year.  4 million paid out, and another 6.9 in luxury tax penalties since they are more than his AAV above the LT line.

Alright well, time to get one one of those two dudes. 

We can take Suarez too, it's fine. 

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Alright well, time to get one one of those two dudes. 

We can take Suarez too, it's fine. 

If taking Suarez lowers the cost of Cease I am fine with him. But if he cost more, let’s just get Cease. 

According to FG the Padres need to shed roughly $17.5m AAV to get under the luxury tax. This ownership problem seems to be more cash based than a Ricketts-esque staying under the cap drive, but Cease at $13.7m and Suarez at $9.2m gets them somewhat comfortably under and saves them whatever their penalty number was (think TT did this math already). 

Their rotation is currently Cease, King, Yu, Pivetta, and then....Randy Vasquez made 20 mediocre starts for them (0.8 fWAR in 98 IP),  Matt Waldron made 26 decent starts (1.8 fWAR in 146 IP). So in theory this Pivetta move wasn't super redundant, there's not a lot of SP depth there. Obviously they could more back in a Cease trade, but there's probably also always the chance that they decide to just 'tough it out' through this ownership transition and screw over their great great grandkids instead. 

On 2/12/2025 at 10:57 PM, squally1313 said:

According to FG the Padres need to shed roughly $17.5m AAV to get under the luxury tax. This ownership problem seems to be more cash based than a Ricketts-esque staying under the cap drive, but Cease at $13.7m and Suarez at $9.2m gets them somewhat comfortably under and saves them whatever their penalty number was (think TT did this math already). 

 

If only there was a team that could take on $22.9m this year.