Shota Imanaga Expected To Decline Qualifying Offer From Cubs

Yeah , roster resource has them at  191 million in LT for 26 , after this . That’s 53 under and they always save money for in season modes . If roster resource is right , they could have around 43 million for the offseason . 
 

Shota completely horsefeathered them off . My guess is they look much harder into a trade for Cabrera now . Also any hope of bringing a big bat via FA is also most likely gone .

Might want to change the thread title

You're not going to catch me complaining about a one year deal for a guy a year removed from a 3.1 fWAR season. Yeah, last year was rough and he was injured. And he might not be much better this year. But I'd bet on him being a 2-2.5 fWAR pitcher on a reasonable deal with no future risk.

YES! Love me some Shota Imanaga! 

I can see them flipping him at the deadline, just like I can see them trading or trying to trade Happ, and Suzuki, and possibly Hoerner too.

When Imanaga was out, I figured they'd look to add one big contract, and that being a top SP.  I just dont see it now.

2026 rotation is set now with...

Boyd, Taillon, Horton, Imanaga, and then they have Rea, Assad, and probably add a cheap depth SP or two to hold the 5th spot down until Steele returns. 

They'll be hoping Wiggins can be the 2026 version of Horton for them at some point later in season. 

48 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Yeah , roster resource has them at  191 million in LT for 26 , after this . That’s 53 under and they always save money for in season modes . If roster resource is right , they could have around 43 million for the offseason . 
 

Shota completely horsefeathered them off . My guess is they look much harder into a trade for Cabrera now . Also any hope of bringing a big bat via FA is also most likely gone .

I mean if they viewed Shota accepting the offer as especially problematic they wouldn't have offered it in the first place.  Shota declining his option put the ball squarely in their court, and this was probably at most a 60/40 decision in either direction.  Maybe they messed up and he's busted, but the team certainly doesn't view it that way today.  An extra second round pick is nice but it's not something you risk a round of russian roulette over.

Generally I think this increases the chances that the other SP comes via trade.  Cabrera who you and I both like, Gore, Ryan, etc.  I doubt it kills the Cease conversation entirely, but it makes it a tighter squeeze.  Cease + Shota at market rates either means payroll is higher than we think (yay!) or basically the rest of the shopping list has to be done via trade.  That's not impossible, "the rest of the shopping" could be like Joe Adell and a couple relievers, but it does make me more bearish on Cease than I was this morning.  I do agree it kills whatever small chance there was of a Tucker/Bregman.

I actually don't hate this. He was good for a significant portion of the year and to me is better than the other mid-tier FA candidates that are sitting out there. Make a trade for a high-end guy and an early season rotation of:  High-end trade, Horton, Boyd, Shota, Taillon looks pretty good to me with Steele, Birdsell/Wiggins, Deadline trade pick up to fill any holes. 

We could also act like a big market team, sign King/Cease and have Shota as the #5 pitcher in the league. 

Wouldn't surprise me if the Marlins trade rumors increase now and Shota took the spot that would've gone to like Michael King or someone like that. I'd probably prefer King over Shota but not by a lot.

This bothers me.  $22 million for a guy who was trending terribly at the end of the year on a big market but sometimes cheaply run team?  I wish he had turned it down. 

14 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

This bothers me.  $22 million for a guy who was trending terribly at the end of the year on a big market but sometimes cheaply run team?  I wish he had turned it down. 

I wish they didn’t offer it to him. 

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

I can see them flipping him at the deadline, just like I can see them trading or trying to trade Happ, and Suzuki, and possibly Hoerner too.

When Imanaga was out, I figured they'd look to add one big contract, and that being a top SP.  I just dont see it now.

2026 rotation is set now with...

Boyd, Taillon, Horton, Imanaga, and then they have Rea, Assad, and probably add a cheap depth SP or two to hold the 5th spot down until Steele returns. 

They'll be hoping Wiggins can be the 2026 version of Horton for them at some point later in season. 

 

You view things way different than most. If they are flipping guys they are not in contention. They will be in contention. And they will add another pitcher this off season. Might have to be via a trade now. The rotation is not set. Injuries happen. 

I like Shota, and I'm hoping he's going to bounce back.  Up until the White Sox game, his ERA was 2.40.  Something was definitely wrong with him there.  Since that game, he never pitched that well.  My guess is they tried to fix him, and probably screwed up his mechanism.  Now, they/he have time to fix it.

Most likely, they won't get Cease, Valdez or Imai.  If they can get Joe Ryan or somebody through a trade, the rotation should be very decent with extra depth.  Rea and Assad could be relievers.  They may trade Assad.

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

You view things way different than most. If they are flipping guys they are not in contention. They will be in contention. And they will add another pitcher this off season. Might have to be via a trade now. The rotation is not set. Injuries happen. 

The rotation is basically set going into ST and obviously barring an offseason trade of any current starter now.

Imanaga Horton Boyd and Taillon are the top 4 starters. 

Steele due back in May/June.

Which leaves Rea, Assad and probably one or two guys they'll sign as depth to compete for the 5th spot until Steele returns. 

I dont see them really being in contention next season if they basically have the same lineup and rotation as 2025, and especially if they don't really replace Tucker bat and add a top 3 of rotation SP. I think they might hover close to 500 at the break, and Hoyer will do like he did in 2021 and look to move the guys on their final year of contract. 

6 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

The rotation is basically set going into ST and obviously barring an offseason trade of any current starter now.

Imanaga Horton Boyd and Taillon are the top 4 starters. 

Steele due back in May/June.

Which leaves Rea, Assad and probably one or two guys they'll sign as depth to compete for the 5th spot until Steele returns. 

 

I dont see them really being in contention next season if they basically have the same lineup and rotation as 2025, and especially if they don't really replace Tucker bat and add a top 3 of rotation SP. I think they might hover close to 500 at the break, and Hoyer will do like he did in 2021 and look to move the guys on their final year of contract. 

 

I do not think that they are done by any stretch.  In fact, I am guessing that another starter will either be signed or traded for.  This will certainly be interesting to watch unfold.  Jason Ross, what say you?  

18 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I dont see them really being in contention next season if they basically have the same lineup and rotation as 2025, and especially if they don't really replace Tucker bat and add a top 3 of rotation SP. I think they might hover close to 500 at the break, and Hoyer will do like he did in 2021 and look to move the guys on their final year of contract. 

Yeah, I can see that.  If they don't really go for another SP, a few good bullpen guys and a Tucker replacement, it would be basically the same team - Tucker + Steele.  We can hope for those younger guys like PCA, Busch, Shaw, Cassie and Mo improving offensively.  Guys like Boyd, Jamo and Steele will stay healthy, and a few guys like Hodge and Imanaga will bounce back.  Then, they can do a bit better than 500.

Either way, the next season will be the last with Seiya, Happ, Nico and Dansby together.  I really want them to extend Nico.

14 minutes ago, BobbyD3 said:

I do not think that they are done by any stretch.  In fact, I am guessing that another starter will either be signed or traded for.  This will certainly be interesting to watch unfold.  Jason Ross, what say you?  

Yes, love to hear what Jason has to say. I don’t agree with Chibear at all, but wondering if others think they won’t compete. 

They are going to trade for a frontline starter.  Cabrera makes so much sense , but there are a number of guys that could be moved. 

There's absolutely no way after all the talking  about pitching that Hoyer is going to bring back the exact same rotation in 2026. Will it be a true front line? That I don't know, but I feel quite confident they're adding at least another mid rotation arm.

13 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

There's absolutely no way after all the talking  about pitching that Hoyer is going to bring back the exact same rotation in 2026. Will it be a true front line? That I don't know, but I feel quite confident they're adding at least another mid rotation arm.

I agree. I also do not see how they are not competing at the TDL. Add a MOR starter, a couple of pen arms and a bench bat who hits right handed and can play 1st base and they are definitely contending. They should do more, but at the very least they will still be an 88-92 win team. I think Imanaga signing makes it more likely that pitcher comes through a trade rather than FA. But I think it will come. Cabrera, Rasmussen, Gore or Ryan are options. 

I don't think Jed and his team are totally incompetent, so I have to believe they factored in the possibility that Shota would take the offer. If this is true, it shouldn't stop them from their plans. 

In other words, I don't think they'd play chicken with $20M just for a compensation pick. 

36 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I don't think Jed and his team are totally incompetent, so I have to believe they factored in the possibility that Shota would take the offer. If this is true, it shouldn't stop them from their plans. 

In other words, I don't think they'd play chicken with $20M just for a compensation pick. 

They are getting a pick for Tucker, so I don’t see them shying away from a guy with a QO either. I think the bigger issue is they only have maybe $45M to work with to stay below the LT line. Need a couple of pen arms(at least) one right handed bat who can play first and then another SP. That is tough to do on $45M unless the pitcher comes in a trade and is controllable only making $6M to $10M. And this is assuming Alcantara is the 4th outfielder and either Mo or Cassie is the left handed DH. They can do it, but they have to fill a need cheaply. 

Does Jamo have any kind of no trade protection? I could see him being moved for a bat and a separate deal being made for a SP that we'd get mroe excited about (Ryan, Gore, etc.) or maybe Jamo could even be a part of that deal to replace innings for the team giving up the main SP piece

14 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Does Jamo have any kind of no trade protection? I could see him being moved for a bat and a separate deal being made for a SP that we'd get mroe excited about (Ryan, Gore, etc.) or maybe Jamo could even be a part of that deal to replace innings for the team giving up the main SP piece

He does have a 10-team NTC protection, but I do believe he would be quite moveable. 

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

They are getting a pick for Tucker, so I don’t see them shying away from a guy with a QO either. I think the bigger issue is they only have maybe $45M to work with to stay below the LT line.

Don't forget the impact of any possible extensions (Nico, PCA) that would further eat into that remaining money.

Maybe this is the year that Tom signs off on going into luxury tax territory.  They will have a ton of money coming off the books ahead of whatever happens in 2027, so it would be easy to get back down under the tax again, especially if they fill out the roster with several bullpen arms on 1 year deals.

I guess Cubs ownership hasn't shown anything to make us think they would do that, but if there was ever a season where they could do it with minimal risk to future payrolls, this would be the one. 

The luxury tax might not even be a thing after 2027, so maybe, just MAYBE, Tommy isn't scared of that scary line this year.