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Are we 100% certain he wouldn’t be a more productive LF or RF than Happ or Suzuki if he was dropped in there full-time? Not saying the Cubs should be doing that but I don’t think Morel is the guy that should be immediately written off here.

In two telling plate appearances late in games this week, we saw what the Cubs' most compelling young hitter still needs to work on--and what he's already doing at an exceptional level. Image courtesy of © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports Christopher Morel stepped to the plate on Wednesday night with the game on the line. With runners on second and third, one out, and a one-run deficit in the ninth inning, the Chicago Cubs just needed some decent contact in order to at least extend the game against the New York Mets. Unfortunately for the Cubs, other than Patrick Wisdom, I am not sure there is a worse player to have coming to the plate when all you need is contact. Morel’s 33% strikeout rate is third-worst among rostered Cubs, behind Wisdom’s 37.5% (yikes) and the seldom-used Tucker Barnhart, at 33.1%. That is exactly how the at-bat played out. After swinging through two fastballs to fall behind 0-2, Morel took another fastball for a ball; fouled off another; and then took a fifth straight fastball right down the middle for strike three. With a player like Morel, you learn to take the good with the bad. Thankfully, Cubs fans have recent experience with that, after having Javier Baez on the team for several years. Despite the high strikeout rate, Morel’s wRC+ of 129 is third on the Cubs, behind Cody Bellinger and just one point behind newcomer Jeimer Candelario, according to FanGraphs. Morel’s 91.9 miles-per-hour average exit velocity is second to Wisdom, and his .257 isolated power also trails Wisdom for the team lead. All of this is to say that, despite the strikeouts, Morel is a very productive hitter. It was the way that Morel struck out that was particularly frustrating for Cubs fans. It was a straight fastball! Right down the middle! It struck me, while watching the game, that it feels like that happens to Morel more than any player I consistently watch. As a matter of fact, it had happened to him just two innings prior! Per FanGraphs, he is swinging at 68.2 percent of fastballs in the strike zone. For reference, Yan Gomes, one of the more aggressive hitters on the team, swings at 71 percent of fastballs in the zone, which is a decent but not significant difference. So, maybe there is nothing to this. Or, maybe there is. Morel’s 44.4% swing-and-miss rate against four-seam fastballs is ninth-worst in baseball, according to Baseball Savant. His 45.1% strikeout rate against four-seamers is 17th-worst. Obviously, hitters typically hit fastballs well, and struggle against offspeed pitches. While Morel just swings and misses a lot in general, and his 45.7% swing-and-miss rate against sliders is still bad, it is only 43rd-worst in baseball. His 24.4% strikeout rate against sliders is all the way down at 304th-worst in baseball. That section of the leaderboard is populated by contact hitters like Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman, and Nico Hoerner–not somewhere you’d expect to find someone like Morel. So what gives? Per Baseball Savant, Morel is slugging .925 against sliders this year, first in all of baseball. His peripherals back that up as well, as his expected slugging percentage of .725 is fourth in baseball. His in-zone swing percentage against sliders is up about seven percentage points from last year to this year, according to FanGraphs, a fairly significant difference. He is also crushing cutters, which is the closest relative to a slider as far as pitch shape. Is he sitting on pitches that he thinks will break a certain way, causing him to take more straight fastballs for strike three? Maybe it’s all just statistical noise. His performance against these pitches last year was not nearly as impressive as it is this year, and he is still struggling against curveballs and sweepers. And he did jump a first-pitch sinker for a lead off home run earlier in the same game. Tellingly, in clinching a .500 road trip for the team on Saturday, he stroked a go-ahead double in a clutch ninth-inning moment, when Blue Jays reliever Jordan Hicks threw him a slider. In the modern version of MLB, there are worse approaches than going up there sitting on a slider and knowing when it will end up in the zone. Or maybe it is something. His improvement from last year to this year is at least evident in his peripherals. “Let Christopher be Christopher” doesn’t nearly have the same ring to it as “let Javy be Javy” did. But as frustrating as that ninth-inning at-bat in Queens was, maybe that’s just the best approach as a fan: Take the good with the bad, and enjoy the ride. View full article

There Is No Such Thing As A Free Playoff Odds Bump, economists always say. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports The Chicago Cubs were busy leading up to the MLB trade deadline on Tuesday. They made minor moves, trading for pitchers Jose Cuas (from the Kansas City Royals) and Josh Roberson (from the Tampa Bay Rays). The big move, however, was acquiring Jeimer Candelario from the Washington Nationals. It was refreshing to see this front office go out and get some help for a team that is within a stone’s throw of a playoff berth. However, the cost wasn’t nothing. Let’s take a look at who the Cubs gave up, and what they might be missing today and going forward. DJ Herz, LHP If there is one traded player who is most likely to come back to bite the Cubs, it’s Herz, who was starting games for Double-A Tennessee before being dealt. He’s striking out over 13 batters per 9 innings so far in his minor-league career, so the stuff is there. On the flip side, he is also walking over 5 hitters per 9 innings as a starter, and command issues often indicate that a player might be better-suited to relief work in the long term. If he is ever able to fix those command issues, his ceiling could be much higher. Fangraphs lists Herz at 40+ future value, which means he projects as something like a lower-tier bullpen guy. The Cubs have four other pitchers in that tier at Fangraphs, so they likely felt like they could deal from a position of strength here. Kevin Made, SS Made, the other player the Cubs gave up for Candelario, was playing shortstop for the High-A South Bend Cubs prior to the trade. He has increased his walk rate from 2.5 percent in his first season in A ball in 2021 to 10 percent this year. However, he has slugged just .366 in almost 1,000 career minor-league plate appearances. Fangraphs also has Made in the 40+ future value tier, meaning he projects as a bench player long-term. If he can continue to improve with the bat as he has, he could have legitimate value going forward. One important note on Made and Herz is that they are both eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason, according to Arizona Phil at the Cubs Reporter. This means that if the Cubs were not going to add them to their 40-man roster, they would have been available to any other team via the Rule 5 draft. Whether or not another team would have taken them, since in order to retain a Rule 5 draftee you have to leave them on your major league roster for the entire season, remains to be seen. But the Cubs likely traded two players on whom they were going to have to make a difficult decision this offseason anyway. Nelson Velazquez, OF I am honestly a little sad to see Velazquez go, even if only for the good memory he gave us all with his go-ahead grand slam against the Mariners earlier this season. He is a major league-ready outfielder who just wasn’t going to see any significant playing time with the Cubs, who have both their right and left fielders locked up for the foreseeable future. Velazquez struggled in his cup of coffee with the big-league team last year, posting just an 87 wRC+, according to Fangraphs, and despite the memorable moment mentioned above, he still hasn’t shown consistent ability to produce above AA, as he has just a 95 wRC+ with AAA Iowa this season. The 24-year-old is striking out over 30 percent of the time in his minor-league career, and if he can manage to trim that figure considerably, he could have a long major-league career because of the power in his bat. As mentioned before, though, the Cubs just aren’t the team to get him those valuable reps. Manny Rodriguez, RHP Rodriguez, who turns 27 in a month, pitched 13 2/3 innings in the majors last year and managed a 3.29 ERA. His peripherals were much less kind, as his 4.87 FIP suggested he was a bit lucky. He hasn’t made it back to the big-league team yet this year, but he has struck out over 13 batters per 9 innings in Des Moines, and his 2.93 FIP suggests he should be preventing runs at a much better rate than his 4.42 ERA. He’s got good stuff, and certainly could carve out a career in a major-league bullpen somewhere, but he wasn’t on the Cubs 40-man roster, and if they weren’t going to add him, he would have been a minor-league free agent this offseason anyway, as this is his sixth season in the minors with the Cubs. Adrian Sampson, RHP Sampson, who was a valuable member of the 2022 Cubs rotation, never quite found his footing in 2023. He has been injured for much of it, as he had surgery on a torn meniscus in May, but even when he has pitched, he’s pitched to a 9.32 ERA in 28 minor-league innings. If Sampson can return to his 2022 form, the Cubs could end up regretting this, and if there is any organization that can get him back to that form, it’s the Rays. Given that he is 31 years old and coming off of knee surgery, though, I would imagine the Cubs have reason and data points to believe that his days as an effective pitcher are done. Trey Mancini, 1B As tough as it is to say for someone who is so easy to root for for so many reasons, it was about time for the Cubs to cut bait with Trey Mancini, and they did just that on Tuesday afternoon, as they designated him for assignment. All numbers on Mancini for this season suggest he is cooked. His 74 wRC+ on FanGraphs means he was 26 percent worse than a league-average hitter, and that poor performance is supported by his batted-ball data. His expected slugging percentage and batting average on Baseball Savant are both in the bottom 10 percent of the league. Poor performance at the plate plus poor defense combined to make Mancini worth -0.8 WAR on FanGraphs. He has more recently been deployed exclusively against left-handed pitching, but even then, he was hitting just .223/.306/.351 against southpaws, and his career numbers don’t suggest he has ever been someone to hit left-handed pitching much better than right-handed pitching. I’d love to see Mancini extend his career a bit here, but the Cubs just can’t afford to be giving him plate appearances anymore. With the acquisition of Candelario, they needed a roster spot, and Mancini was the logical subtraction. Candelario and Cody Bellinger will take all of the playing time at first now, and between Candelario, Patrick Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, Miguel Amaya, and Yan Gomes, the Cubs have significantly better options at both third base and designated hitter against left-handed pitching, as well. Conclusion The Cubs certainly lost some value with all of their moves, but they are definitely palatable losses. Mancini and Sampson are, in my opinion, unlikely to be around the big leagues for much longer. Rodriguez and Velazquez both have potential, but were unlikely to hit that potential with the Cubs. While Herz and Made both have lots of development to go, and are interesting prospects, the Cubs cleared a potential 40-man roster logjam, and neither of them were in the top tier of the Cubs farm system. View full article

Though they've been superficially solid, the Cubs' starting rotation has really been a tale of two seasons. Early on, they were dominant. Over the last two months, though, there have been two weak links in the chain. Is that wound beginning to heal? Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports With two outs and the bases loaded in the top of the fifth inning Saturday, Drew Smyly started his showdown against the Cardinals’ Jordan Walker with two straight cutters on the inside part of the plate. Walker fouled off both pitches, and just like that, Smyly was ahead in the count 0-2. With Walker having seen a couple of pitches on the inside part of the plate, Smyly executed a perfect curveball in the dirt and on the outside part of the plate. Walker swung and missed, ending the Cardinals’ scoring threat, and keeping the Cubs within two runs, in a game they would eventually win 8-6. For a team that needs every win they can possibly get to keep their very small playoff hopes alive, this was a very important strikeout. What is also very important is for the Cubs to get Drew Smyly back to the player he was for the first two months of this season. Through his first 10 starts of the season, Smyly was one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball. His 1.3 WAR on Fangraphs was 19th, and his 2.60 ERA was 12th among qualified pitchers. The Cubs were 7-3 in those games. In his 10 appearances since, Smyly has a 7.08 ERA, which is sixth-worst among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched in that time frame. His -0.3 WAR is third-worst. The Cubs are 3-7 in those games. His 3.62 FIP and 4.31 xFIP in his first 10 starts suggested some regression was coming, but I don’t think anyone expected it to be this extreme. What was the significance of his at-bat against Jordan Walker? In Smyly’s first 10 appearances, when he was successful, he was mostly a two-pitch pitcher. Per FanGraphs, he threw his fastball 42.4 percent of the time, his curveball 49.2 percent of the time, and his cutter 8.3 percent of the time. Since then, he has almost doubled his cutter usage, throwing it 15.1 percent of the time, with his fastball being thrown 39.4 percent of the time and his curveball 45.5 percent of the time. If we want to get even more recent than that, his cutter usage is up to 20.3 percent in his past six outings. If throwing the cutter less often worked for him earlier this season, why the progressive change in pitch usage? Smyly’s putaway pitch, his curveball, is not getting the results that it did to start the season, or even the results that it did last season. From last season through Smyly’s 10th appearance this year, his curveball was worth 0.88 runs/100 pitches, according to FanGraphs. For reference, that would have made it the 10th-best curveball in all of baseball in that time frame, had he thrown enough innings to qualify. Since then? It has been worth -2.52 runs/100 pitches, making it one of the least effective curveballs in baseball. For a pitcher like Smyly, this is a huge issue. He has never generated a ton of value with his other pitches, mostly using them to set up his curveball. If his curveball isn’t effective, he just doesn’t have any other pitch that can consistently get guys out. The good news, if there is any, is that Stuff+, an all-encompassing pitch modeling stat that takes velocity, spin rate, spin axis, movement, and release point into account, doesn’t see a huge difference with the curveball from his first 10 appearances to the second 10 appearances. My best guess is that, since Smyly was basically a two-pitch pitcher for the first half of his season, hitters started sitting on the curveball. Smyly is in the midst of making an adjustment back to throwing the cutter more often. The results haven’t been there yet, but in order for the Cubs to keep clawing back into the playoff race, Smyly is going to have to at least start performing like a league-average pitcher. With Jameson Taillon still struggling to find his groove, they are essentially starting 40 percent of their games in a hole, just because of who is pitching for them. Perhaps Taillon is now emerging from that funk; Smyly needs to follow him toward the light at the end of that tunnel. View full article

As the Cubs offense continues to sputter, and as their season continues to circle the drain, fan frustrations with Seiya Suzuki only seem to grow more heated. Is that fair? Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports When the Cubs invested $85 million in Seiya Suzuki during the 2021-2022 offseason, it was seen as a smart gamble by most. Suzuki had the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-order presence for the Cubs, while also maintaining a high floor as a player thanks to a keen batting eye. According to Frangraphs, Suzuki has been worth about $21.8 million thus far as a Cub, which is right on par with the roughly $20.5 million that he has been compensated, thanks to his contract being slightly backloaded. There are many cries from Cubs fans out there saying that Suzuki is drastically overpaid, and has been a disappointment, but the fact of the matter is that an average annual salary of $17 million is just not that much in Major League Baseball in 2023. Clearly, I try to remain reasonable. Yet I also, like many, find that Suzuki still leaves much to be desired. Per Baseball Savant, Suzuki is 19th among qualified hitters in average exit velocity. He hits the ball as hard as Mike Trout, and harder than Kyle Schwarber. Why, then, has Suzuki been roughly a league-average hitter in his two seasons with the Cubs? Among that group, Suzuki’s expected slugging percentage of .390 is one of the worst. The only player in baseball in the top 50 in exit velocity with a worse expected slugging percentage is Brandon Marsh. The issue? Suzuki hits ground balls at 93.1 miles per hour. He also hits balls in the air at 93.1 miles per hour. His average exit velocity on ground balls is 3rd in baseball, behind ground ball enthusiast Yandy Diaz and Aaron Judge, who hits everything hard. His average exit velocity on balls in the air, though, is 141st in baseball, and his 10.6 degree average launch angle is 191st. Suzuki is adept at hitting the ball hard, but he is just not doing any damage in doing so because so much of that loud contact is on the ground, leading to few home runs and lots of groundouts. Baseball Savant also estimates that Suzuki has been worth -15 runs on pitches over the heart of the strike zone, which is 8th-worst in all of baseball. Granted, most players don’t generate positive value on those pitches, but -15 runs is just not good enough for someone who was brought in to be a starting right fielder. He grades out at average to above-average value on pitches in the shadow, chase, and waste zones, but he just doesn’t do any significant damage on pitches over the heart of the plate: The backbone of a good hitter is here. Suzuki has the ability to hit the ball hard, and combines that with a 75th-percentile walk rate. He just doesn’t hit enough of those balls in the air. As he’s currently going, he is still a valuable player, but I totally understand the frustration that some fans have with him. If he can start hitting the ball in the air consistently, he could turn into one of the better hitters in baseball. View full article

Cody Bellinger and the Chicago Cubs were a hand-in-glove fit coming into last offseason. The Cubs needed a short-term center fielder, and Bellinger was looking for a short-term, change-of-scenery deal where he could rebuild some of his value. Thus, the Cubs and Bellinger agreed to a deal last December that would likely have Bellinger patrolling center-field for the Cubs for just one year. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports The thinking went that, if the Cubs could turn Cody Bellinger back into an above-average offensive player, they would either deal him at the trade deadline for prospects, or he would be a key player for a playoff contender. If Bellinger was still the below-average offensive player that he was for the previous two seasons, he would still provide value defensively, and the two parties could move on after the season, or at the trade deadline. No harm, no foul. Fast forward to July, and most Cubs fans would tell you that they are more than happy with Bellinger’s performance. His .303/.359/.502 slash line is 29 percent better than average, according to wRC+ on Fangraphs. Despite missing a month with a knee injury, his 2.0 WAR is 3rd on the team among position players, behind only Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. Dig a little bit deeper into the numbers, however, and there are several causes for concerns regarding Bellinger’s performance. Baseball Savant calculates expected batting average and expected slugging percentage based on batted-ball data (exit velocity, launch angle, etc.) for each player. Bellinger is fifth among players with at least 150 plate appearances with a .052 difference between his batting average and expected batting average, and fourth with a .105 difference between his real and expected slugging averages. He has an expected batting average of .251, and an expected slugging of .397. Basically, he has been one of the luckiest players in baseball to this point. What is the reason for his poor expected performance? Bellinger’s average exit velocity of 86.5 miles per hour is the lowest of his career, as is his 5.2-percent Barrel rate–even lower than each of his past two seasons, when he was one of the worst offensive players in baseball. In good news, he has cut his strikeout percentage from about 27 percent over the past two seasons to 17.7 percent this year, so it’s reasonable to expect some jump in batting average. But given the poorer quality of his batted balls, the jump shouldn't be as great as it has been, especially given that Bellinger is not someone who historically outperforms his expected statistics. With home runs Thursday and Friday, Bellinger might be hitting a stride he didn’t have a chance to hit earlier this season, thanks to the cold weather of April and the knee injury in May. His expected slugging percentage has been above-average over his past 50 plate appearances: This all combines to make Bellinger one of the most interesting Cubs to follow going forward. At this point, it’s clear he will likely never recover his MVP form. He just doesn’t hit the ball with the same authority that he once did. Are his numbers this year for real, or has he just had some very fortunate batted-ball luck? If the Cubs decide to trade him, what kind of value would they receive? Can he maintain his recent hot stretch and carry the Cubs’ offense for a bit? There is likely not another player on the Cubs whose results could vary so wildly going forward. How Bellinger performs will likely determine either if the Cubs can get back into the playoff race, or if they have a successful trade deadline, should they decide to sell. View full article

Right off the bat, I have to come clean about one thing: I have always been fascinated by Nick Madrigal. He was a top draft pick, and a top prospect, because of exactly one tool: his hit tool. The fact that the one tool he did possess is the one skill that this era of baseball is straying further from made him even more fascinating. Image courtesy of © Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports Like most who follow the Cubs closely, my reaction when I read that the Cubs were going to be giving Nick Madrigal reps at third-base during Spring Training was to laugh. Most third basemen are large, slugging types–like Patrick Wisdom, for instance. Madrigal, at 5’8”, 175 lbs, and with two major-league home runs to his name, didn’t exactly fit that bill. Through the first couple months of the season, he wasn’t doing much to prove me wrong. Through May 21st, he was hitting just .247/.286/.301, and thus he was rightfully sent down to Triple-A Iowa. After posting a .488 batting average in AAA, Madrigal returned on June 9, and has since proven himself more than worthy of at least an extended look at third base for the Cubs, on both sides of the baseball. Let’s start with the defense. Madrigal has been worth 3 Outs Above Average at third base. That rates 12th in all of baseball, among the 56 players who have played at least 100 innings at the position. This is despite the fact that he has only played 255 innings at the position. Wisdom, for comparison, is at -3. For a player of Madrigal’s stature, you would think his arm strength would be the concern moving over from second to third. Per Baseball Savant, Madrigal averages 85.1 miles per hour on his throws across the diamond, just behind the major-league average of 86.1 mph. Wisdom, for another comparison, is averaging 87.7 mph this season. With the arm being only a bit below-average, Madrigal has otherwise just been solid. He has the quickness to get to the baseball. Baseball Savant estimates that he has converted 77% of balls hit towards him into outs, with the expected success rate (based on the speed and trajectory of batted balls hit his way) being 73%. On the other side of the baseball, Madrigal has hit .327/.421/.408 since his return from Iowa. The high on-base percentage is buoyed by 4 hit by pitches, which is probably not a repeatable skill. Despite this, he is still sporting a walk rate of 6.7% since his return from the minors, compared to 3.1% beforehand, according to Fangraphs. He has started laying off more balls outside the strike zone, so there might be something to that elevated walk rate. He swung at 35.5% of balls outside the strike zone before his demotion, and he has dropped that number to 29.5% since his return, per Fangraphs. Pitchers, as a result, will likely start filling the strike zone with pitches to counter this. Since Madrigal won’t punish them with a home run, they don’t have much to lose in doing so. The hope, then, is that Madrigal’s contact quality will start to get louder, and the batting average might even rise. He had his first barrel, which is a ball that is hit at an optimum launch angle and exit velocity, last weekend in London. It remains to be seen if this solid play will continue. But Madrigal has, at the very least, earned himself an extended look at third base. With Wisdom unproductive even before he was hurt, and with Miles Mastrobuoni headed back to Iowa himself, the Cubs might not have any other options, anyway. View full article