Matthew Trueblood

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images First, there was the Isaac Paredes trade. In July 2024, as they teetered on the tightrope of contention for an NL Wild Card berth, the Cubs traded talented but positionless could-be slugger Christopher Morel, promising reliever Hunter Bigge and far-off prospect Ty Johnson to the Rays for controllable, All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes. It was a bold move, designed to help the team both in the present—Morel was still struggling to connect his raw talent with his baseball skills, and simply wasn't playable at third base anymore—and in the future. Paredes came with three and a half years of team control, so to make an upgrade from Morel to him, the Cubs coughed up two interesting arms. As I wrote at that time, that move was part of a shift in organizational philosophy and direction, which has not abated since. The team understood that, having languished a few years already on the wrong side of .500 and after firing David Ross to hire Craig Counsell and make him the highest-paid manager in baseball in November 2023, they needed to deliver on-field results soon, so they began systematically converting long-term value into short-term value. It meant churning through their draft classes faster, converting them from prospects with vague asset value into real help in the majors as quickly as possible. Thus, it was no real surprise when the team included 2024 first-rounder Cam Smith in their deal for Kyle Tucker in December 2024. That deal also sent Paredes to Houston (after an unlucky and unproductive half-season in Chicago), though, and the Cubs also threw in young pitcher Hayden Wesneski. It was a lot to give up for one year of Tucker, who became a free agent after the 2025 World Series. Tucker didn't have a once-in-a-lifetime season with the team, either. He was the anchor of an extremely productive lineup in the first half, but he had a very inconsistent, injury-dimmed second half and played little part for the team down the stretch or in October. The Cubs organization, Wrigley Field and Tucker didn't form a love connection, and the team didn't seriously court him when he hit free agency. Although it's not entirely fair to Tucker, for many fans, the emblematic moment of his year in Chicago will be his pivotal strikeout during the team's only promising rally in Game 5 of the NLDS. Resist the temptation to let that set of facts mark the trade as anything but a resounding success, though. Tucker won't be a long-term part of the Cubs, and his influence was positive but not transformative on the field. However, he was what the 2025 team needed to get over the hump and back into the postseason, and the benefits of that extend far beyond last year. As we've reported here before, the Cubs' ownership group (including members of the Ricketts family, but also high-level business operations staff, like team president Crane Kenney) sets each year's baseball operations budget based on the previous year's revenue. Arguably, that's a closed-minded, overly conservative way for a team as rich and popular as the Cubs to do business, but it's what they do. One benefit of the approach is that success is self-sustaining. The better the team does, the more money they make, and the more money they make, the more money they're permitted to spend the following year. The baseball operations staff under Jed Hoyer astutely recognized that moves that boosted their hopes last season would increase their flexibility thereafter. That informed not only their trade for Tucker, but their efforts to land (first) Tanner Scott and (later) Alex Bregman. This way of thinking about their constraints and their opportunities is really just an extension of the way Hoyer and company do business all the time. It's similar to the way they eschewed higher-rated prospects to take Cade Horton in the first round in 2022, and used the savings to draft Jackson Ferris—whom they'd then include in the Michael Busch trade months later. It's also akin to their philosophy on free agency, which favors the middle of the market over pursuits of players in position for megadeals, even though ownership would sign off on a $400-million deal if it fit into the overall budget for Hoyer. The Hoyer Cubs aren't playing 4-D chess, but they are playing regular chess. When they make a move, they know that some of the things that happen next will be beyond their control, and they accept that. To select a move, they consider which move gives them the most desirable set of long-term outcomes and chances to pivot toward a new strategy if needed. Trading for Tucker looked, from the outside, like an all-in move for 2025, especially when they didn't push hard for an extension with him that spring. Now, though, we can see how the value will spill forward, into 2026 and beyond. Making the playoffs directly earned the Cubs perhaps $25 million, and being good right from the outset ensured that they also made more throughout the summer than they would have otherwise. Tucker was a big reason for that, and a meaningful chunk of the $50 million or so in total revenue increase from 2024 to 2025 can be ascribed to the trade for him. That increase boosted the budget for 2026 and made signing Alex Bregman possible, which is likely to keep the team competitive and increase their revenues over the life of that deal. The team can also recoup some value via the draft pick they're set to receive as compensation for Tucker signing elsewhere. Even if they sign free agent Zac Gallen, giving up a pick in the process, they'll be one pick richer for having had and lost Tucker than if they'd had the same offseason but never had him. The team is still rolling up future value and exchanging it for present value. After dealing Smith and Paredes, they backfilled third base by fast-tracking 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw to the lineup last spring; they might trade him for even more present utility before camp opens. They traded top prospect Owen Caissie for Edward Cabrera earlier this month. Last summer, they took an injured but polished college hitter (Ethan Conrad) with their top pick, giving themselves a chance for a quick payoff on their investment either via extremely rapid development for a kid taken so low in the first round or via a blockbuster trade in July. However, that doesn't mean they're forgetting about the future. What they do to win games today is also designed to improve their chances tomorrow. The Tucker deal came at a high cost, but its dividends didn't end when he moved on. View full article

Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images It's time for a little inside baseball. Most fans know that Scott Boras is the most powerful and visible agent in the sport, and each winter, one of the first things everyone does is to identify the players hitting free agency whom Boras's agency represents. Many fans also know, at least vaguely, that Boras's reputation is for stubborn patience and being willing to let his top players stay on the market longer than other agents do. There's truth in that, but it's not the whole story. The Boras Corporation has over 75 active major-league clients, and is always adding players as they enter professional baseball and climb the first rungs of the ladder therein. Boras can't fully service all of those players; he's the head of a large operation. The company includes several MLBPA-licensed agents, and most Boras Corporation clients are assigned at least one representative other than Boras for their day-to-day needs. However, part of the sales pitch with which Boras recruits the best players in the sport is the promise that he'll be the one negotiating your deal, when the time comes to make real money. That's his signature skill, and while his employees often talk with and even take the lead during segments of negotiations with teams, Boras is the closer. That's the real reason why his clients tend to linger on the market the way they do, as much as anything else. Before he steps in to do his thing on behalf of one client, he must tackle the one ahead of them in the pecking order. That doesn't mean that Boras clients will simply sign in descending order of quality or earning power each winter. It's not that simple. Rather, Boras and his team devise a strategy for cultivating discussions and offers, and they try to determine the best order of operations to get all their clients paid as well as possible. This can be a cold-feeling process for some of the company's clients, and there's no question that the best players get preferential treatment and take priority as the offseason gets underway, but they're not neglecting the needs of anyone they represent; they're just navigating the market with a utilitarian mindset about maximizing their players' earnings. When you see a non-elite Boras Corporation client sign early in the winter, you can bet that the team who signed them got extremely proactive in the pursuit of them. That's how Matthew Boyd signed with the Cubs in late November 2024, and how Josh Bell ended up with the Twins relatively early this winter. If a club has a sufficiently strong feeling about a player, they can jump the line by communicating to Boras (or, just as often, one of the less famous agents under the company's umbrella) that they're ready to make a deal. Failing that, though, Boras tends to line up his top players to sign soonest, setting a robust market and ensuring that demand outstrips supply when it's time to play matchmaker with the lesser lights. This offseason, as has become common, Boras controlled the market. Dylan Cease signed a massive deal with the Blue Jays in late November. Pete Alonso got his big deal, on the second go-round, signing with the Orioles in mid-December. With a deadline looming, Boras got Tatsuya Imai a flexible deal with the Astros, and earlier this month, he secured a five-year deal for Alex Bregman. Using the leverage the Cubs' deal with Bregman created, he got Ranger Suárez $130 million with the Red Sox. On Wednesday, Cody Bellinger became the latest headline name to get over $150 million. Boras Corporation clients have been guaranteed over $900 million this winter, not counting the deals inked by arbitration-eligible players. With all those stars off the board and the guys (Bell, Austin Hedges, Luke Weaver, Ha-Seong Kim and a few others) whom teams got proactive on out of the way, the Boras-specific portion of the winter has officially entered its endgame. There is only one player with a modicum of high-end earning potential left on Boras's list: Zac Gallen. Boras and company still need to find homes for Erick Fedde, Rhys Hoskins, Michael Kopech, Nick Martinez, Chris Paddack and Max Scherzer, too. None of those guys will sign long-term deals, though, and only one or two of them will get an eight-figure guarantee. Gallen is the last major piece for whom Boras needs to find a home, and it's not a coincidence that he's ended up being last in line. As was reported (rather shoddily) at the time, the Cubs did flirt with a buy-it-now move on Gallen late last year, as they tried to create more certainty in their starting rotation. The price tag was much too high for their taste, though, with Boras seeking a five-year deal. Over a month later, the team has both spent significant dollars (on Bregman, most notably) and added to their rotation via trade, so they don't have as urgent a need or as easy a fit for Gallen as they had then. That said, we talked at the time about why the team likes him, and those reasons for interest remain valid. Indeed, Gallen's market has staggered, though not quite collapsed, according to sources with knowledge of offers made to him this month. Rather than having any hope of a five-year or nine-figure payday, Gallen looks likely to settle for a deal much more akin to the one Boras got for Imai: three years and $54 million guaranteed, with the chance to push that number to $63 million via incentives or the right to opt out after either of the first two years. The Cubs have re-engaged with Boras about Gallen over the last week, according to a source familiar with the talks, but it's not clear exactly how a deal palatable to both sides would be structured. Right now, the Cubs have Boyd, Edward Cabrera, Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton and Shota Imanaga penciled into their rotation for 2026. All five of those guys have significant injury histories, either because of the volume of trouble they've encountered or because they just struggled with maladies last year. The team also has Colin Rea, who could open the season in the bullpen if everyone is healthy, and Javier Assad, who can still be optioned to the minors. Justin Steele will return sometime in the summer. On paper, they have depth in abundance. Pitching on paper is unproductive, though, and on the dirt and grass of reality, the team will soon find some limits on the availability of the group listed above. Taillon and Boyd are each planning to pitch in the World Baseball Classic, and it wouldn't be surprising if Imanaga, Cabrera and Assad ended up doing so, either. Innings limits based on age, previous workload and/or injury rehabilitation will come into play for Cabrera, Horton, Steele and top prospect Jaxon Wiggins. The Cubs are going to need more good, healthy pitchers than they currently have, and Gallen (despite ugly numbers the last year and a half) is exceptionally durable. To sign Gallen, the Cubs would have to surrender a draft pick, though that would just even things out after they were set to receive one to compensate them for the departure of Kyle Tucker. (Bregman, who received a qualifying offer last winter and wasn't eligible to get another, didn't cost the team a pick.) With Taillon, Imanaga and Boyd each slated to hit free agency after 2026, signing Gallen to any deal that allows him to opt for free agency after just one year would be superficially problematic, but one team source suggested that it would also mean more freedom to operate next winter. If Steele, Horton and Cabrera are healthy and pitch the way the team expects, rounding out the 2026 rotation will be important, but not overwhelming. Thus, as the Cubs consider ways to complete their roster and contend for a pennant this season, Gallen is back on their radar. A decision could come soon, though now that Boras isn't spread as thin, he can play the waiting game with Gallen if his client is ok with not knowing where he's going until the eve of spring training. This is just one possible path for Chicago, which is also weighing the option of trading one or more players to get more flexible and balanced throughout the roster, but it's a surprisingly real one. Boras and Jed Hoyer have learned to read and use each other relatively well, and the best remaining deal out there for Boras's last high-end client might come from Hoyer. View full article

That's terrifically kind of you. Thanks, and welcome! We're hoping to deliver the goods all year.

Image courtesy of © Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images Let me tell you a story. Not long ago, a solid journeyman relief pitcher got hurt. He tore his Achilles tendon, in fact, which is a major bummer of an injury. Before being felled, he'd been an unspectacular but valuable reliever for two and a half years. Since the start of 2023, indeed, he's appeared in 131 games in the majors and put up a 3.58 ERA. Most of that work came for the Mariners, who still had control of him for 2026 if they wanted it. Instead, though, they non-tendered him in late November. Guys who tear their Achilles in July rarely make it back to the mound before the following June, and the reliever wasn't good enough to wait on that way. Not even two months after being cut, he has a job again. The Cubs signed Trent Thornton to a minor-league deal after watching his pro day at Tread Athletics this month, and he'll get an invitation to big-league spring training, a source confirmed. Thornton, 32, is already touching 92.5 miles per hour on the gun, and he threw six different offerings in a 23-pitch bullpen session before scouts at the facility in North Carolina. He's making an impressively fast recovery from the injury, and sure looks like he'll be at full strength by Opening Day. I have a little conspiracy theory to share with you, though. It has nothing to do with his injury; there'd be little incentive for anyone involved to lie about or obfuscate his real health status. Rather, I want you to consider this chart, showing Thornton's pitch types and shapes for 2025, according to Statcast: Now, here's a clip of his session at Tread's Pro Day and the data on his pitches, served up by the coach who worked with him directly at the facility. The key to good detective work is seeing what's missing from a picture, so spot what's missing from that Pro Day outing by Thornton. He didn't throw the changeup or splitter at all. In fairness, he only threw those two pitches a combined 24 times in 2025 and 29 times in 2024. The tweet in which Tread announced that he was signing with the Cubs called him a "super supinator," which is true. Supinators are pitchers whose mechanical preference is for the inward turn of the palm required to throw a breaking ball; they're the ones who can produce elite spin rates on those pitches. Thornton is famous for having one of the highest-spin curveballs in the league, averaging over 3,000 revolutions per minute. Those guys tend not to throw many changeups, which generally require pronation (the outward turn of the palm through pushing the thumb down), instead. Ah, but it's possible the 'generally' in that last sentence is doing important work. The famous not-quite-new pitch of 2025 was the kick-change, whereby a pitcher who favors supination creates a changeup that works for them by using a spiked grip that "kicks" the spin axis of the pitch toward the arm side as they release the ball. Instead of having to pronate to create arm-side movement, the grip does the work for them. Jameson Taillon had a good season thanks to unlocking this very secret. Thornton is an exceptional candidate for a kick-change, and Tread is one of the top proponents of that pitch in the independent pitching development sphere. They've tweeted that term 11 times since early August, alone. The last two such tweets were celebrations of the progress made by two of the facility's pupils in November, centered on their kick-changes. The coach overseeing each of those guys was Turner Givens—the same one who has worked with Thornton there. If you wanted to take Thornton to the next level as a reliever, you'd give him a kick-change. It looks like he even tinkered with that pitch a bit in 2025, throwing a different flavor of changeup than he had in the past about 10 times before getting hurt. It's unfathomable that, in a couple months of work with Givens at Tread, Thornton hasn't been developing a kick-change. But he didn't throw it at his Pro Day. That might be purely because it's not ready yet. Thornton's extension at release was very, very low in this outing, because that's one way pitchers modulate effort and because that major injury to his landing leg is still healing. Extension is key to executing a good changeup, so the pitch might not be ready for prime time. However, there's another hypothesis worth our consideration. This is the conspiracy theory portion of the program. Cubs vice president of pitching Tyler Zombro joined the organization after a few months as a coach akin to Givens, at Tread—and he didn't stop working for Tread when he joined Chicago. Even after a big promotion to that VP role for Chicago in the fall, he maintains a role at Tread. Zombro is the Cubs' new secret weapon of pitching development, and because of his work at Tread, almost any pitcher who passes through that facility will come into his orbit. Thornton is the third pitcher signed by the Cubs coming out of Tread's Pro Day, joining righthander Tyler Ras and southpaw Charlie Barnes. That's probably organic, in that Tread's philosophy of pitching both informed Zombro's and now reflects it. A pitcher who works at Tread for a while will be molded to suit that philosophy, and Zombro can hardly fail to notice when they respond well to it. Tread isn't quite an extension of the Cubs, but it's sure become a likely place to find pitchers the Cubs will like. That doesn't amount to a conspiracy. If Zombro and the Cubs knew they'd have interest in Thornton, though, might Zombro have encouraged Givens and Thornton to keep the kick-change in the holster for Pro Day? That probably wouldn't have been a tough sell, for the reasons we mentioned earlier. It certainly could help the Cubs keep Thornton below the radar, though. This is a guy with 235 appearances and 401 innings in his big-league career. Getting him on a minor-league deal might not have been possible, if another team or two had seen the pitch that's likely to round out his arsenal and help him get lefties out. Opposing lefty batters hit .271/.327/.442 against Thornton in 2024 and 2025, combined. Fix that, and he becomes a candidate for high-leverage relief work. The kick-change can do that. With that pitch established, he would merit a big-league deal with an immediate 40-man roster spot. Instead, the righty will come to spring training with a chance to win a job, but the team will have roster flexibility to add higher-end talent for the balance of the winter—and he'll cost them virtually nothing if he doesn't pan out. Did Zombro help hide the most promising development happening for Thornton behind the scenes, to more easily steer one of Tread's most accomplished auditioners to the team he works for? It's unlikely, but not impossible. This is why many within the game are uncomfortable with arrangements like the one between Zombro, the Cubs and Tread—which is hardly unprecedented. It won't matter unless Thornton really has a dazzling spring, but if he fights for and wins a spot in the pen and turns out to be a key arm, credit Zombro with (at least) being the relational conduit who helped the team snare him. View full article

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images Although the Cubs aren't actively looking to trade Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw after signing Alex Bregman, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer admitted at Bregman's introductory press conference that interest in both Shaw and Hoerner has increased in the last few days—or, at least, that teams have felt emboldened to call about the two. Hoerner has garnered plenty of trade interest in the past, and Shaw was a key part of the demand from the Nationals when the Cubs took an interest in MacKenzie Gore. Chicago doesn't need to move Hoerner's salary; they have permission from ownership to stay above the first competitive-balance tax threshold this season. Nor are they obliged to trade Shaw, who can serve as a roving utility man or be optioned back to Triple-A Iowa. Undeniably, though, the chances of one of the two ending up elsewhere rose when Bregman signed, and although Hoerner makes a better headline-grabber, it's Shaw whom the Cubs would be happier to move, given the right return. What is the right return? Given that Shaw still has six years of team control remaining—he didn't get to a full year of service time for 2025, after he had to be demoted to the minors early in the season—it shouldn't be cheap. Chicago expects a pitcher who can contribute to their aspirations to make another run deep into the postseason in 2026, according to sources in two front offices who have had discussions with the team this week, and they'd also ask for a lower-level prospect to reinvigorate their farm system. Here are the six teams who most obviously match up with Chicago on a potential Shaw trade, and a brief rundown of the pitchers who could check that first, biggest box in a deal. Boston Red Sox After trades for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo and the signing of Ranger Suárez, the Red Sox are flush with pitching depth. If the season started tomorrow, they'd have a rotation of Garrett Crochet, Gray, Suárez, Oviedo, and Brayan Bello, which leaves top prospects Payton Tolle and Connolly Early out in the cold. Kutter Crawford missed all of 2025 after knee and wrist surgery, but should be a full go come spring training, and they signed Patrick Sandoval for the privilege of waiting out his rehab so they can put him into the mix this spring after modified Tommy John surgery in 2024. Bello is a good young pitcher, but not a frontline guy, and the team-friendly extension to which the team signed him has so much meat left on the bone (four years, $50.5 million, with an option for 2030 that would earn him another $20 million) that the Cubs might be wary of taking it on. Crawford is an interesting arm with three years of club control left, but in order to accept him as the pitching help in a Shaw deal, Hoyer would have to get a pretty good second piece, which is unlikely. Tolle or Early would be a great return for Shaw, allowing the Sox to fill the hole left in their infield by their failure to re-sign Bregman while netting the Cubs a high-upside left-handed hurler. That would be a fun challenge trade—but Boston covets the depth and flexibility both lefties provide. Kansas City Royals We talked about the Royals as a landing spot on Thursday, with specific mention of Kris Bubic, a plug-and-play southpaw starter. However, Bubic has just one year of team control left and a shaky track record when it comes to durability. The Cubs would push hard to land one of Noah Cameron, Luinder Avila, Ryan Bergert or Stephen Kolek (each of whom come with at least five years of team control and can be optioned to the minors) instead. Bergert and Kolek, whom Kansas City got from the Padres in July's Freddy Fermin trade, are the names to watch most closely. Minnesota Twins Another AL Central team loaded with compelling arms, the Twins have two famous aces (Pablo López and Joe Ryan) who make plenty of sense as targets for the Cubs. However, neither is available right now. That could change in the summer, but if the Cubs prefer to strike while the iron is hot and get long-term control of a starter in return for Shaw, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Mick Abel, Taj Bradley and Connor Prielipp all make sense. Shaw would slide right in as the presumptive second baseman in Minnesota, with superior hitter but defensive clod Luke Keaschall moving to the outfield. Of the five pitchers named there, all but Bradley (4) have at least five years of club control left, and all can be optioned to the minors. Prielipp is probably a reliever, but would instantly become the highest-upside southpaw in the Cubs pen. San Francisco Giants This fit is not as tidy. The Giants badly want Hoerner or Shaw, but don't have much the Cubs want in return, save for things San Francisco can ill afford to trade. They do have a passel of back-end starters with long-term team and cost control, including Landen Roupp, Carson Whisenhunt, Hayden Birdsong and Keaton Winn. To part with Shaw, though, the Cubs would want someone with more upside or a stronger track record than any of those four possess. Unless Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey is willing to do something unexpected (and a bit foolish), a deal between these two sides is unlikely. Tampa Bay Rays After trading Brandon Lowe earlier this winter and acquiring Gavin Lux (ostensibly to play second base) Thursday, the Rays have a very thin, very ugly depth chart around the horn. Shaw would solve some problems for them, and he fits their mold in some key respects, offensively. He'd be a huge defensive upgrade for a group that could feature the plodding Junior Caminero at third base, the better-in-left field Lux at second and the oversized Carson Williams at shortstop on many days. To get Shaw, though, the Rays would have to send the Cubs one of Shane McClanahan, Edwin Uceta or Griffin Jax. McClanahan is an ace-caliber lefty starter at his best, but has been sidelined by injuries for a year and a half. Uceta has four years of team control left and blossomed as the Rays' relief ace last year, while Jax came over in a trade with Minnesota at the deadline and has two years of team control remaining. Jax is also a candidate to move to the starting rotation, though perhaps not until 2027. This could be the highest-impact set of pitcher targets for the Cubs, though they come with shorter terms of team control than some of the hurlers the team would target in deals with other clubs interested in Shaw. Washington Nationals The Cubs were reluctant to include Shaw in a trade for Gore last winter, or at the deadline in July. However, his value to them has dropped since then, and Gore's value has diminished enough that the Nationals can no longer credibly demand both Shaw and Cade Horton for him. A deal for Gore centered on Shaw would vault the Cubs well into the lead in projected NL Central standings for 2026, though it would require them to backfill their infield and could mean throwing in a player in addition to Shaw. The name of the game, if the team does trade their 2023 first-round pick, is to augment the 2026 roster without sacrificing long-term value. Moving Shaw would raise the stakes of the team's attempts to keep Hoerner around beyond the end of his current contract after this season, so it would need to save them some money at the end of the decade by adding controllable, cost-effective pitching to their roster. They might not be able to thread that needle—but plenty of teams would love to work with them in the endeavor. View full article

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images Signing Alex Bregman was primarily about adding a missing ingredient to the Cubs' batting order. Since Bregman agreed to a deal Saturday night, we've covered his fit into the lineup and his new home park, and we've dissected how well he approaches at-bats in big situations. Bregman also has an important defensive role to play, though. He'll be the team's starting third baseman for the foreseeable future. Thus, it would be wise for us to get to know him as a fielder. Bregman has consistently rated as an above-average defender at the hot corner. That's the headline. In nine of his 10 seasons in the majors, he's been average or better, according to both Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) from Sports Info Solutions and Deserved Runs Prevented from Baseball Prospectus. Somewhat surprisingly, he's even gotten better as his career has progressed. Whereas most players' defense peaks in their early 20s, Bregman won his first Gold Glove in 2024, at age 30. Two of his three best seasons by DRS came in 2023 (5) and 2024 (6), and he posted 1 DRS in 2025, despite missing a significant chunk of the season. The key to his unusually late peak has been improving steadily on plays down the third-base line, even as he's lost a bit of his ability to range to his left and take plays away from his shortstops. Plays Saved Season To His Right Straight On To His Left 2016 0 0 6 2017 -5 0 4 2018 1 -3 3 2019 1 2 8 2020 -1 1 0 2021 -3 1 4 2022 -2 0 -5 2023 5 -2 2 2024 8 0 -2 2025 1 -1 1 That might come as a minor surprise, to some, because Bregman is small for a third baseman (5-foot-11, 190 pounds) and doesn't have an elite arm. One way for third basemen to guard the foul line is the step-and-a-dive plan, but Bregman doesn't make many of those plays, and lacks the length for them. He does throw harder, on average, than Dansby Swanson or Nico Hoerner, and is right near shortstops Trea Turner and Bo Bichette on Statcast's arm strength leaderboards, but those are the guys whose arms put them at risk of having to move off short. For the long throw from the line behind third to first base, most players need above-average raw arm strength. That was the one strength of Christopher Morel, during his stint at third. A lack of arm strength prompted Nick Madrigal to play close to the line and deep, so that his throws could come with as much momentum toward first as possible. Playing deep was also Matt Shaw's way of providing more time to process the ball off the bat and cover ground; it allowed him a gentler transition from his previous homes in the middle infield. How, then, has Bregman gotten better at closing down the plays to his right, without completely compromising his ability to range to his left? Firstly, he's moved a step closer to third, on average. Here are his average depth and angle (relative to second base, where 45° would be right at third base and 0° would be right at second) of positioning, based on handedness and infield alignment, since 2021. For a stylistic comparison, I've also included Matt Shaw's positioning data for 2025. RHB LHB No Shift/Shade Shift/Shade No Shift/Shade Shift/Shade Season Depth (ft.) Angle (deg.) Depth (ft.) Angle (deg.) Depth (ft.) Angle (deg.) Depth (ft.) Angle (deg.) 2021 118 36 120 38 105 28 130 12 2022 118 36 119 37 101 29 131 13 2023 117 36 117 37 104 27 129 23 2024 120 36 122 37 102 28 129 22 2025 117 37 117 37 104 28 128 21 Matt Shaw - 2025 122 35 122 37 112 27 125 21 Remember, after 2022, the rules changed and severely restricted where teams could move infielders. Bregman was one of the players whose role significantly changed at that point. When the shift was allowed, the Astros used it extremely heavily, and Bregman was often playing a de facto shortstop against left-handed batters. Over the last three years, he's experimented with different ways to have an impact on the game, continuing to view himself as a shortstop-caliber defender even though he hasn't officially played there since 2019. Compared to Shaw, Bregman plays shallower, except when the infield plays a lefty to pull. In 2025, he also played a bit closer to the line in his default position against righties than he had before, whereas Shaw cheated slightly more toward the hole. In general, smaller players play deeper at third base, trying to use their speed to cut off the ball and leaving as much space as possible to get up to speed before it reaches them. Bregman is the exception. Like any good defender, he has figured out how to use his immutable traits to his advantage, rather than let them hurt him. Exceptionally quick with the first step, he doesn't need the extra five or 10 feet he could often have to get to balls a few steps to either side of him. Because he's not tall, he's often able to field the ball without much bend, partially because he plays shallow. A sharply hit ball will often be at the peak height of its first bounce when Bregman encounters it, and that means he can play it waist-high. The way he addresses the ball increases the utility of his arm; he can get off throws faster and with less wasted movement than most third basemen. NHlNOU5fV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0FWQUhBZ0FNVTFRQVd3TldBZ0FIVndRSEFBQURVRk1BVVYwTUJGY05BRkFCQlZBSA== (1).mp4 That doesn't mean he's incapable of getting down for balls when he needs to. Moving closer to the line last year made that easier, not just because he had reduced the ground he needed to cover before getting down but because he was doing so under greater body control, making it easier to get back up and fire the ball across the diamond quickly. WEQyT05fWGw0TUFRPT1fRGdnQVVBSlhWVk1BREZJQVVBQUhBUThFQUZoWFZ3Y0FWRkJYVkZJSEExZFRVd0VG.mp4 That doesn't mean he's a perfect defender at third, or that moving toward the line hasn't cost him anything. Ranging toward shortstop now requires a bit more of his speed, and he's not always as smooth as he needs to be when embarking on those long journeys to his left. Shaw excelled at this last year, which helped cover for the slow diminishment of Swanson's speed and arm. Bregman and Swanson will have to develop a good rapport that allows them to know which is best-positioned to make a play on each and every ball hit into the hole, to make up for a dearth of the sheer athleticism you see from most good duos on the left side of an infield. WnhyNE9fWGw0TUFRPT1fVUFVQ1ZGQUhVVmNBRFZBR0FnQUhBd1FDQUFNR1Z3QUFBd0ZYQUF0VEJ3ZFdBZ1lG (1).mp4 On balance, though, Bregman is much more of a playmaker than Shaw, Madrigal, Morel, Patrick Wisdom, or any other Cub who has consistently manned third base in this century. Much of it shows up against left-handed batters, because he moves much closer to shortstop than Shaw did and can make plays like a true shortstop. WU9rNFdfWGw0TUFRPT1fQVFRQ0JRWUFWMUVBREZVQ1VnQUhWdzVlQUFNQVUxTUFWd2RSQVZJRVVBUmRCZ1Jl.mp4 It also has to do with the smaller things his sure hands and high baseball IQ bring to the table, though. Bregman loves to play shallow and take away the bunt, and part of that is being willing and able to take down the lead runner when a batter tries a sacrifice. It's fundamentals, but between positioning, footwork and the chutzpah to try it, many defenders cop out and throw to first when they have a play at second in the modern game. Not Bregman. NXlhUktfWGw0TUFRPT1fRDFJQVV3WUJVbEFBQ2xJRUJ3QUhWMUpSQUFNRkFRSUFVd0VCVlZVREF3QlJBVk5U.mp4 Chicago's defense will need to adapt a bit. They not only shaded left-handed batters about a third less often than did the Red Sox last year, but weren't as aggressive about pulling Shaw toward the middle of the diamond to make plays as the Sox were with Bregman. If Craig Counsell, Bregman and Swanson are on the same page, this move can augment the team's defense, as well as its offense. Bregman is not your typical third baseman, and he's not your typical 32-year-old. There is value left in his leather. View full article

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images For much of this winter, one of the storylines around the Chicago Cubs was the sheer lack of bodies. They spent several weeks with eight or nine open spots on their 40-man roster. Even during the offseason, that's extremely unusual. With the signing of Alex Bregman and the pickups of outfielder Justin Dean and left-handed reliever Ryan Rolison on waivers in the last fistful of days, though, the team is now up to 39 players on their 40-man roster. They've filled the slate, with a combination of trades, several small signings, and the Bregman deal, which feels like a capstone to a great offseason. As we know, though, the offseason isn't over. The team is weighing its options with Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner in the wake of signing Bregman, who gives them a crowded infield to go with their crowded starting rotation and a bullpen that (if not quite overloaded) is a bit short on flexibility. Let's run through the roster, reaching beyond the 40-man, even, to understand what the team has, what it needs, and what lies ahead for them. Locked-in Regulars This category includes only the players who have an ironclad role on the team for the coming season. We know not only that they will be on the team come Opening Day, but roughly what they'll be doing. They're expected to be trusted members of the core all year, if they're healthy enough for that. Position Players Miguel Amaya Tyler Austin Moisés Ballesteros Alex Bregman Michael Busch Pete Crow-Armstrong Ian Happ Carson Kelly Seiya Suzuki Dansby Swanson Starting Pitchers Cade Horton Shota Imanaga Matthew Boyd Edward Cabrera Jameson Taillon Relief Pitchers Daniel Palencia Phil Maton Caleb Thielbar Hoby Milner Hunter Harvey Jacob Webb This is a large group, given that it's only the middle of January. Trading for Edward Cabrera and signing Bregman clarified the plan for Moisés Ballesteros to serve as the regular designated hitter, pushing Seiya Suzuki to right field. The big moves created uncertainty for some individuals, as we'll discuss next, but they brought the vision of a playoff-caliber team into focus. The Displaced Five incumbent Cubs players are left with more questions than they had before, after adding Bregman and Cabrera to the mix but losing Owen Caissie. At least two have become prominent trade chips; at least one probably just got a step closer to his dreams. Nico Hoerner - Like it or not, the team has had serious discussions about trading Hoerner in three of the last four major transaction windows (offseasons and the run-up to the July trade deadline). That doesn't mean they've ever been especially close to dealing him, or that they'll do so now, but they've had chances to quash any such talk and head off rumors, and they've never really taken them. Because of Hoerner's limitations as a player (especially his lack of power at the plate), they've always understood his to be one place in their lineup where an upgrade was possible, even though they've also always loved him for what he does on the field and who he is in the dugout and the clubhouse. All of that remains true. Matt Shaw - Bregman directly knocked Shaw out of his comfortable nest at third base. He could be left to drift and figure things out on the fly, backing up both Hoerner and Bregman, or he could be installed as the second baseman in the wake of a Hoerner trade. He could also be traded, to any of a handful of interested teams, if the price is right. Kevin Alcántara - COVID and injuries conspired to give the Cubs a fourth option year on Alcántara, who is really starting to feel wasted in Triple A. That doesn't mean he'll be a star in the majors, though, and indeed, there's plenty of doubt both inside the Cubs organization and throughout the industry that he'll ever harness his tools well enough to be a regular. That might finally break in his favor this year. With Caissie off the roster, there's a more open path to a bench role for Alcántara, platooning with Pete Crow-Armstrong and (indirectly) with Ballesteros. Given that he looks increasingly like a fourth outfielder, anyway, the Cubs might feel it's the right time to give him some opportunities in the majors and not to prioritize him playing every day in Iowa. Then again, they could prefer to keep him in a rhythm, in case an injury forces them to turn to him full-time for any stretch. Colin Rea - When he signed an extension with the Cubs, Rea probably thought he had a firmer grasp on a rotation spot than he'd had when he signed with them for 2025. No such luck. After Shota Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer and the team dealt for Cabrera, Rea is now on the bubble. He'll only pitch in the rotation if someone gets hurt or the team elects to use six starters. It's more likely that he'll fill a swingman role all year, starting when needed and working in flexible, medium-leverage relief. Javier Assad - Still able to be optioned to the minors, Assad could spend much of his age-28 season in Des Moines. That's not really fair to him, but the injuries that sidelined him throughout last season put him out of sight and out of mind when the team drew up its plans. He's their seventh starter entering camp, and even if attrition renders him their fifth for a while, Justin Steele is slated to return during the summer and Jaxon Wiggins will start knocking loudly on the door by the trade deadline. Optionable Big-League Depth To their credit, the Cubs have accumulated quite a few plausibly useful big-leaguers (especially pitchers) whom they can send to the minors to maintain roster flexibility all year. Position Players Justin Dean - Picked up on waivers from the Giants, after they'd picked him up on waivers from the Dodgers, Dean is a great story. He scrapped for a decade, often playing independent ball and in the Mexican League, before getting to the majors for the first time last year—with the World Series-winning Dodgers. He's already set to receive a championship ring. The Cubs snagged him with an eye on his good speed and defense; he's extremely light-hitting. As a righty batter behind a fairly left-handed collection of outfielders, though, he could spend some time on the big-league roster as a fifth outfielder. He can be optioned and stashed, which makes him useful on a team light on outfield depth. James Triantos Pedro Ramírez - Both Triantos and Ramírez were added to the 40-man in November to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. They're the current depth options, should the Cubs trade either Hoerner or Shaw, but it's most likely that even if Hoyer moves one of his would-be starters, he'd bring in someone to fill that bench role, leaving these two to ready themselves for the majors in Triple A. Pitchers Ben Brown - It's not going to work as a starter. The Cubs essentially acknowledged that much by the end of last season. Yet, Brown could begin the season as a starter in Iowa, stretched out to forestall calamity. By midsummer, if the depth in the rotation appears likely to hold, he should be converted to short relief, permanently. Porter Hodge - On one hand, the Cubs would love if Hodge asserted himself as a legitimate setup man again. On the other hand, he'd then become a de facto locked-in guy, like Palencia, where the availability of an option doesn't actually help. They need flexibility, to survive the heavy usage every bullpen runs into at some point in the long season. Hodge, the up-and-down guy, at least comes with some pedigree and upside when it's his turn to rotate through the final reliever slot. Gavin Hollowell Luke Little Riley Martin Jack Neely Ethan Roberts Ryan Rolison Jordan Wicks - Useful because he can deliver long relief or make a spot start, Wicks is nonetheless disappointing. A first-round pick taken for his high floor, he's turning out to have a floor of being the 11th-best starter in a contending depth chart and the eighth-best lefty reliever in that mix. Not on the 40-Man, But Could Be Minor-league signings shield a team from both injuries in camp or early in the season and the thorny roster rules that make it so hard to rotate enough solid relievers through the bullpen. The Cubs have made five important ones, and one that probably won't matter. Position Players Christian Bethancourt - With Ballesteros as the only third catcher on the 40-man, it's vital to have a trustworthy veteran backstop you can keep around in Triple A in case of an injury. Reese McGuire proved the value of this role last summer, though Bethancourt is not as good as McGuire was. Scott Kingery - This is the one that shouldn't matter. Unless the team trades one of Shaw and Hoerner and doesn't do anything to replace them, he's just filler, keeping spots warm in Des Moines and being ready in case of emergency. Pitchers Tyler Beede Jeff Brigham Corbin Martin Collin Snider - None of these four have minor-league options, so once they go onto the 40-man, they have to stay with the big-league team. That makes it most desirable that at least one pitches well this spring, doesn't make the roster, but agrees to go to Iowa and wait for a shot. At least three of these four have the right to opt out of their deal if not added to the 40-man by a certain date, so expect them to compete for the final spot in the pen. The Cubs can still make other additions this winter, but they might need to come with subtractions. Picking up Rolison (the sixth lefty reliever on the 40-man, counting Wicks) leaves them teeming with fringy arms, any one of whom they can cut if the need arises and an opportunity to improve presents itself, but this group has a lot of utility. If the season started tomorrow, the Cubs would be ready. View full article

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images In public and behind the scenes, conflicting information is flying back and forth in the wake of the Cubs' signing of third baseman Alex Bregman. The arrival of Bregman displaces third baseman Matt Shaw, pushing him (for now, at least) into a utility role for the 2026 Cubs. As the team ponders the endgame of its offseason, however, the front office has received multiple calls about both Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw. How likely either is to move depends almost entirely on whom you ask, and the rest of the equation is when you ask them. This is a fluid situation—perhaps surprisingly so. Sources familiar with the team's thinking say Chicago would prefer to deal Shaw, all else being equal. Though Hoerner can become a free agent after 2026 and will cost them $12 million this year, the level of organizational faith in him is much higher than in Shaw, whose uneven 2025 campaign called into question both the magnitude of his talent and his makeup. The younger player's stock is down slightly after a year in which he got a false start in the majors, found his footing in late spring, and got hot just after the All-Star break, but which ended with a thud in late September and October. Still, his trade value is higher than Hoerner's, and after trading top prospects (Zyhir Hope, Cam Smith and Owen Caissie, most notably) in multiple deals over the past two years, the Cubs could use an infusion of talent in their farm system to go with the core they've built at the big-league level. Trading Shaw could get them a player who helps in 2026 (for instance, they need better optionable pitching depth) and a prospect who bolsters that farm. One team stands out as the top candidate to match up with the Cubs on a trade for Shaw: the Kansas City Royals. They need help at second base, where Jonathan India is penciled in for this season. India batted .233/.323/.346 in 2025, struggling mightily after an early-season plunking that briefly sidelined him with a concussion. Though only entering his age-29 season, India is aging rapidly at the plate, and he's barely a viable defender at second base. Shaw projects to hit .240/.310/.408 this year, according to early and simple Marcel projections. India projects to hit .242/.335/.381, with his superior on-base skills making up for less slugging, but Shaw is a far better defender and baserunner. The Royals have the left side of their infield locked up for the long haul, and in Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone, they appear set for a handoff at first base sometime in the next three years. A young, controllable second baseman would finish the puzzle for them. Kansas City also has interesting pieces to offer in trade. The Cubs were interested in both of the Royals' first-round picks last summer, had they slid into the second round. Outfielder Sean Gamble and shortstop Josh Hammond were both plucked from the high-school ranks, and neither will be ready for the majors any time in the next two years, but the Cubs' system needs better depth, and those guys are the caliber of prospect available in a deal like this one, where the team trading them is getting a long-term, big-league piece, but not a star. If Chicago could pry loose Gamble, Hammond or catching prospect Blake Mitchell, it would get a conversation started. The negotiation would then have to pivot to the player who would replace Shaw on the big-league roster and help the Cubs in their push toward a pennant this season. Utility man Nick Loftin is the kind of bench piece Chicago would need if they jettisoned Shaw, but he has limited value because he's not a candidate to play everyday for a contender. Starter Kris Bubic, in whom the Cubs had interest last summer before his elbow began barking and the Royals pulled him off the trade market, has just one year of team control remaining, but his pitch mix appeals to the Cubs' coaching and analytics staff. However surprising it might be to most big-market fans, though, the Royals are in win-now mode. They want to maximize the value of their time with Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel García and ace starter Cole Ragans. Although they might not be in a position to take on his full salary, the team would prefer Hoerner to Shaw. The Cubs would have to get more help for 2026 to give up Hoerner—perhaps both Bubic and Loftin—but the Royals are one team who might pay the required premium. For Hoerner, the Cubs would have to get a difference-making pitcher to pull the trigger on a deal, while trading Shaw would be more about aligning things better and amassing talent. The Red Sox, Twins, Yankees and Giants all could have interest in one of the two infielders, in the right deals. Other teams could enter the mix, depending on how some free-agent sweepstakes turn out, but a source in another front office said Wednesday that the Cubs are gathering information quickly, with an eye toward making a decision soon about whether to trade either infielder or proceed with the roster as-is. In that context, the Royals are perhaps the team with whom they could most easily line up. It's more likely that both players are still Cubs come Opening Day than that they're dealt, but if that changes, keep an eye on the Royals. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images In the modern game, teams work hard to build not only strong offenses, but ones with a wide array of strengths and weaknesses. Just as it's become popular to assemble a bullpen featuring pitchers with different arm slots and pitch shapes, as well as handedness, teams are trying to build lineups with varied skill sets—including swing paths. Platoon balance is a familiar need, and clubs have always craved a mix of power and speed, but the new hotness is loading up with players who can neutralize the constellation of looks pitching staffs will throw at you within a given game or series. The Cubs have had a good mix of left- and right-handed offense over the last three seasons. They've employed sluggers and speedsters. They've had guys who specialize in drawing walks and those who emphasize avoiding strikeouts. Last season, though, they had one glaring deficiency in lineup diversity: swing path. There are three key variables in a player's swing, just as there are with a pitcher's throw. For pitches, those vsriables are velocity, horizontal movement and vertical movement, though as we now know, there are other key characteristics, too: spin rate, arm angle and extension toward the plate at release. For hitters, the main variables are bat speed, swing tilt, and contact point. Again, there are secondary traits that also matter (attack angle and direction, depth in the batter's box, and swing decisions), but those are controlled by the primary traits. To visualize the way Cubs hitters map on this basis, I've charted swing tilt and contact point (relative to the batter's center of mass) for 2025. The points in this scatter plot are colored by the player's average exit velocity, as a proxy (admittedly, an imperfect one) for swing speed. This includes all the team's regulars last season, plus a few selected players for comparison. As you can see, the Cubs strongly favor steeper swings. The average swing tilt for big-league hitters is around 32°. Last year, the only frequent contributors to the team who were on the flatter side of that midpoint were Matt Shaw and Seiya Suzuki, and for Suzuki, it wasn't by much. They also leaned toward catching the ball farther out in front of themselves than most hitters do. The two exceptions to the latter rule were Kyle Tucker and Nico Hoerner, but Tucker then hit free agency. Earlier this month, we discussed the possibility that the team would pursue Bo Bichette, who catches the ball as deep as just about any hitter in baseball—but as you can see, he also would have been another of the team's steep swingers. This move goes the other way. The team traded Christopher Morel (an exceptionally flat swinger) for Isaac Paredes in 2024, but then shipped Paredes to the Astros as part of the deal for Tucker in December of that year. Paredes's extreme go-get-the-ball contact point contributes to his reliance on pulling the ball right down the line. The fact that Bregman lets the ball travel much longer explains his ability to hit for power to left-center field, where Wrigley Field will be much friendlier to him. Indeed, Bregman hit 13 balls over the last two seasons that were not home runs at the parks where he was playing, but which would leave Wrigley by clearing the wall at the shallow part of the left-center power alley. Shaw was the different swing the team needed to balance out the rest of their crew, but only when he was going well. For most of the season, he was a mess at the plate, with a disorganized approach and little feel for barreling the ball. Bregman doesn't swing as fast as Shaw, but he makes hard contact more often, because he has what Shaw is missing: an extremely polished plan at the plate and plus-plus feel for contact. Bregman and Moisés Ballesteros now give the Cubs the flat swings their lineup lacked last season. Mixing Bregman, Ballesteros, Busch, Happ, Suzuki, Crow-Armstrong and Hoerner into the top seven spots in the batting order each day will give the Cubs two true speed threats; as many as four 25-homer hitters; three lefties, three righties and a switch-hitter. Now, they also have a greater diversity of swing shapes, which leaves fewer pitchers able to pick their way through the lineup without hitting a buzzsaw. Bregman is a risky signing, entering his mid-30s and a bit light on power, but he boosts both the depth and the versatility of what the team hopes is a championship-caliber offense. Consider this glimpse at the swings of four Cubs hitters: Bregman, Busch, Hoerner and Suzuki. The difference in swing plane between Bregman and both Hoerner and Busch is visible to the naked eye, as well as in the measurement at the bottom right corner. Harder to pick up at a glance (but just as important) is the fact that Bregman hits by getting his hips and shoulders more open by the contact point than the others. That ensures that, despite his flatter swing, he's working uphill at contact more than Hoerner or Suzuki are. Finally, look at his hands; that's where his offensive genius lies. Whereas any of the other three would be on the point of breaking their wrists and rolling over by the time they get to the same point in the arc of the swing, Bregman is capable of cutting smoothly through the ball throughout a wide timing window. Compare his right wrist to Suzuki's, at the same point. In Suzuki's swing, his wrist is already at full extension by then, and there's no way to resist rolling them if he's a hair early. For Bregman, there's still flexion in the wrist of that top hand, and the bottom hand operates brilliantly, too. Because of the flatness of his swing, Bregman doesn't have to turn his left wrist over until very late, either. That's where the signature finish on his swing comes from, and it's why he makes contact at an elite rate even while averaging such a high attack angle and a high launch angle on his batted balls. All of that makes it hard to manipulate Bregman, and explains why he's a perennially tough out. He's struggled against sinkers (a little) and sweepers (sometimes a lot), but he consistently has positive run values against four-seam fastballs, changeups, curveballs, sliders and cutters, because his swing is so adaptable. Given his superb plate discipline, he's a terrific fit for Chicago's lineup, on multiple levels. In a vacuum, Bichette would have been a more desirable signing, because he's younger, more athletic and more likely to have peak seasons in front of him. However, the team needed a swing just like Bregman's to mix into their everyday lineup. View full article

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images Alex Bregman will be the straw that stirs the drink for the Cubs over the balance of this decade. He joins the team as a dynamic offensive force designed to make up for the team's otherwise left-leaning core pieces, and as a forceful personality who fits perfectly into their clubhouse. Craig Counsell's daily duty of filling out the lineup card just got a lot easier. Let's project a few ways the team's batting order could take shape each day, based on matchups and the talent they've collected over the last handful of years. First, when they face a right-handed starter, things seem likely to shake out in pretty straightforward fashion: Michael Busch - 1b Alex Bregman - 3b Ian Happ - lf Seiya Suzuki - rf Moisés Ballesteros - dh Nico Hoerner - 2b Pete Crow-Armstrong - cf Miguel Amaya - c Dansby Swanson - ss This (effectively) has the Cubs alternating left- and right-handed batters all the way down to the bottom of the order, where righties Miguel Amaya and Dansby Swanson double up. It gives them four extremely well-established on-base standouts at the top of the order, each with 20-homer power, and it leaves lots of upside clustered into the remaining spots. Bregman's arrival takes considerable pressure off Moisés Ballesteros, pushing him down to fifth in this configuration of the lineup. Speaking of which, against lefties, Ballesteros might not need to start at all. Here's one way the team could set up against southpaw starters. Nico Hoerner - 2b Ian Happ - lf Alex Bregman - 3b Seiya Suzuki - dh Tyler Austin - 1b Dansby Swanson - ss Carson Kelly - c Kevin Alcántara - rf Pete Crow-Armstrong - cf Swapping out Michael Busch and Ballesteros for Tyler Austin and Kevin Alcántara makes the team very stout against lefties. Bregman's .280/.372/.489 career line against lefties comes with more walks (196) than strikeouts (181); he's the lefty-masher the lineup needed in its upper half. Subbing Busch in for Austin as soon as the opponent goes to a righty would still leave him protected by righty sluggers Suzuki and Swanson, so the opposing manager would be in a tough spot if they sought to bring in another lefty to face Busch the next time around. One notable name doesn't appear in either of the formulations above. Thus, let's consider a third setup, most likely to be deployed against lefties but designed to maximize different strengths, and perhaps platoon-neutral. Nico Hoerner - 2b Alex Bregman - dh Ian Happ - lf Seiya Suzuki - rf Michael Busch - 1b Dansby Swanson - ss Pete Crow-Armstrong - cf Miguel Amaya - c Matt Shaw - 3b Bregman is a good enough hitter to add value even when he doesn't play the field. Sliding him to the DH spot occasionally makes room in the lineup for Matt Shaw, whose opportunities will otherwise be limited for a team now loaded with infield options. Shaw had an uneven rookie season, but he's developed into a plus defender at the hot corner, and when going well, he can be a boost at the bottom of the batting order, too. This is probably the best defensive alignment the team can muster, though to truly maximize that, they could swap Alcántara in for Suzuki in right field. Without Bregman, lots of these potential setups left Ballesteros or Austin batting cleanup, or Busch in a key lineup spot against lefties. They were likely to be reliant on getting the good things they've seen from Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya and Shaw over the last two years, without the bad. That's a lot to hope for, and they no longer need to pray on those dice rolls with the same fervor. Bregman ties the lineup together, and even if the group lacks an elite power hitter, they've achieved depth they had lacked ever since they traded away the core of their championship team. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images Essentially, Jameson Taillon throws two different curveballs. He rarely uses one of them—the slanting, two-plane breaker that twists away from right-handed batters—and leans much more on the other, but there really are two different pitches. The hook he throws to righties is just a rare variant on his much more common sweeper, to force hitters to look for something else. The one he throws to lefties is more vertical, and he throws it to the other side of the plate. Jameson Taillon Curveballs Split Velocity (MPH) Hor. Mvmt. (in.) Vert. Mvmt. (in.) Spin Rate (RPM) Spin Axis Arm Angle (Deg.) v. RHH 79.2 11.8 -6.9 2691 7:37 48.5 v. LHH 79.7 9.2 -9.5 2573 7:21 49.3 Taillon's curveball is his main breaking ball to lefties. He throws his four-seamer to the upper, outer quadrant of the zone against them, and his new kick-change and that curve play off that pitch. The changeup fades to the edge of the plate, or off of it. The curve dives to the bottom of the zone, after looking like a ball out of the hand. It's meant to lock up lefties and earn called strikes, and it did that job quite well in 2025. Taillon, though, just got pushed down to fifth in a healthy Cubs rotation for 2026. If everyone is going well, Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera, Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga will be ahead of Taillon in the pecking order, and if and when Justin Steele returns, only other absences will save Taillon a place in the rotation. Why, then, am I telling you about Taillon's curve and its peculiarities? Here's the first part of the reason: This is the number of times each right-handed pitcher threw a curveball for a called strike to a left-handed batter in each season from 2023-25, charted against the percentage of all their curveballs to lefties that had that result. In other words, among righthanders who throw the curveball reasonably often against lefties, how often are they not only landing it in the zone, but freezing a batter for a strike with it? This is one of the two main ways that a curveball works. Some curves are designed to get chases on pitches outside the zone, and to miss bats when the hitter swings. Others, though, are meant to steal strikes without even letting the batter get the lumber off their shoulder. Bigger-breaking curves can be easier to spot out of the hand for opponents, but if done correctly, that can prompt them to take the pitch, because they were primed for a fastball or aren't able to adjust their timing well enough to get off a good swing on the much slower pitch. That hasn't always been Taillon, but as part of his constellation of adjustments in 2025, he got much better at it. As you can see, he was fairly middling in this regard in 2023, and in 2024, he dipped down into the neighborhood of Ben Brown, a classic chase-and-miss curveball guy who doesn't get called strikes with that pitch often at all. Last season, though, he shot up the list. Because they overlapped perfectly, I had to highlight Aaron Civale's 2024 instead of Taillon, but that same dot belongs to Taillon's 2025. He got there, in part, by observing and making some tweaks to mirror the changes Colin Rea made and the way he executed his curve to lefties. Rea is very much a change-of-pace, called-strike curveball guy. That's how he uses the pitch, and why the Cubs were excited about changing Rea's pitch mix to feature the four-seam fastball instead of his sinker. All else equal, the Cubs love a backdoor curveball artist. They want that guy who drops it into the zone in ways the opponent isn't ready for at all. That brings me to the second reason why I brought this up, in the first place. I removed the highlight on Civale's 2024, because it would have made the one for Cabrera harder to read. I also didn't highlight his 2023, because it's right next to that Civale/Taillon dot and would have left a muddle of text, too. The point is still plenty clear: Cabrera has always been this kind of curveball guy. Rather than a pitch designed to rack up whiffs, Cabrera's curve to lefties steals strikes with huge movement. It also misses bats at a dazzling rate (over 45% of swings against it last year), but he goes to that big, freeze-up curve often. This is a gorgeous match between team and new pitcher. Cabrera is, in some other ways, a bit of a push against the grain for the Cubs. They don't normally pay handsomely for velocity and strikeout rate, as they've done here. They normally prize durability, but are rolling the dice on a guy with a long injury history. This illuminates, a bit, why they made this change of tack. Cabrera might not look like a typical Cubs starter on the surface, but in small and important ways, he is one. His breaking stuff also includes a good slider, but the curve is the featured piece, and it fits into the team's preferred plan for curves (especially to opposite-handed batters) perfectly. View full article

Image courtesy of © Mandy Mertens-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs have agreed to a trade to acquire right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins, a source confirmed to North Side Baseball Wednesday. Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation had the news first, on Twitter. Owen Caissie will be part of the package going to the Marlins, who nearly acquired him from Chicago last winter in exchange for lefty starter Jesús Luzardo. Cabrera, who will turn 28 in April, comes with three years of team control, and is eligible for arbitration this winter. He made 26 starts and posted a 3.53 ERA in 2025, the best and healthiest season of his career. Long plagued by shoulder injuries, he lowered his arm slot, resulting not only in more durability (though he dealt with elbow issues, instead) but better control. Without missing fewer bats (his strikeout rate held steady at 25.8%), Cabrera used his altered delivery to reduce his walk rate from a career mark of 13.3% before 2025 to 8.3%. He boasts two fastballs that sit in the upper 90s, but is one of the least fastball-reliant starting pitchers in baseball. Instead, he leans heavily on his plus changeup and curveball, also mixing in a slider and an occasional sweeper. The changeup is famous for clocking in as high as 96 miles per hour, thrown with ferocity but achieving great fade and tumble. Given that profile, it's clear what Cabrera adds that the Cubs had previously lacked: a right-handed power arm at the front end of the rotation, to complement Cade Horton. He misses bats with multiple offerings and could still have more in the tank, as he finds a rhythm by staying healthy more consistently. The Cubs could have him throw the heater more than Miami did, but he's a different type of hurler than they have relied on over the last decade—and that's a good thing. For the Marlins, the key piece of the deal is Caissie, who had been slated to take over a significant role in the Cubs' lineup for 2026. Long on raw power and more athletic than his frame suggests, Caissie nonetheless comes with concerns about his ability to actualize that pop (he rarely pulled the ball in the air, for instance, even in a second tour of Triple A in 2025) and about strikeouts. His stock dipped slightly league-wide despite good numbers on the farm last year, and the Cubs entertained trading him in July, when the Marlins were also interested in acquiring him. A source indicated that there will be two other pieces going to Miami to complete the trade. With Caissie heading to Miami, the Cubs are left with an even more glaring set of questions about their offense for 2026. That was already an area of focus for them for the balance of the offseason, and it now becomes their top priority. Cabrera is projected to earn $3.7 million this season, far less than the team would have paid to land either Tatsuya Imai or one of the top domestic starting pitchers via free agency. That leaves them with plenty of spending power. Seiya Suzuki can move back to right field in the absence of Caissie, but that puts extra pressure on the bat of prospective DH Moisés Ballesteros. The Cubs are in contact with the agents for both Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette, who would lessen that pressure by becoming infield options who also spend time at DH, and who could anchor the team's lineup for multiple seasons. Reunions with Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger remain unlikely, a source said. Cabrera gives the Cubs one of the best starting rotations in the National League, pending the possibility that they trade one of their incumbent options. (Indeed, they could include one such player in this very deal; Miami has had interest in Javier Assad in the past.) This is a momentous deal, and an exceptionally aggressive one by Jed Hoyer and company. It's also likely to be the first of a multi-transaction move to make the team a more serious challenger to the NL Central hegemons in Milwaukee. View full article