Matthew Trueblood

That's a great call, and the Cubs have had interest in Duran in the past. Could actually happen. Otherwise, though, I'm not sure the right player is out there to make it happen, as strong an idea as it is.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Under no circumstances will the Cubs non-tender Justin Steele or Javier Assad Friday. Though Steele is unlikely to make it back from Tommy John surgery until midsummer, he's a vital part of their medium-term pitching plans. Both he and Assad, who is arbitration-eligible for the first time and projects to make less than $2 million, have trade value even if the Cubs ultimately build a pitching staff into which they no longer fit. That doesn't mean there won't be news about one or both of them before the end of the day. Chicago could try to strike a two-year deal with Steele, who is set to hit free agency after 2027, anyway. That would give them cost certainty for the balance of the term of Steele's team control, and let Steele dispense with worrying about his earning power as he rehabs throughout the winter and spring from his operation this April. Often, with players who are sure things to receive a contract, the deadline that spurs action on deals like that is the one for exchanging arbitration figures (which will be on Jan. 8, 2026), but getting Steele's salary figured out early would give the team more clarity as they plot an active pursuit of further pitching upgrades. Assad is less likely to settle on a salary Friday, but in his first year in the system, he has relatively little earning power. The Cubs might elect to lean on him and agree to terms early, if only so there's a fixed salary associated with him when (inevitably) his name comes up in trade discussions over the next six weeks. Since Assad still has minor-league options, the Cubs can afford to stash him in Triple A and keep him stretched out as starting pitching depth in 2026. That doesn't seem like the highest use of him at this stage of his career, but flexibility always has value—to the team that currently owns the rights to a player, and to trade partners. The other two Cubs eligible for arbitration this winter are on shakier ground, and will almost certainly be involved in a transaction Friday. In Eli Morgan's case, the question is whether the Cubs will jettison him by non-tendering him, or sign him to a low-dollar deal in the neighborhood of the $1.1 million he's projected to earn in his second trip through arbitration. If the two sides can't agree on a deal before the deadline, Jed Hoyer and company will probably just cut the righty reliever loose, but there's little roster pressure to do so. Chicago's 40-man roster still only has 32 players on it, so Morgan could easily survive. It's just unlikely that the Cubs let the question of how much he'll make linger past Friday, This deadline will be enough to spur action on such a fringy case. It's a different dilemma where Reese McGuire is concerned. After being an adequate stopgap amid Miguel Amaya's injuries in 2025, McGuire is under team control for one more season, if the Cubs are willing to pay him $1.9 million or so. However, he's ineligible to be sent to the minor leagues without being exposed to the other 29 teams. With Amaya and Carson Kelly set to remain the team's catching tandem of choice and Moisés Ballesteros available as at least an emergency option at the position, McGuire doesn't really fit the 2026 Cubs. They could non-tender him, but he should have (very limited) trade value, if they choose to extract it. Because McGuire is little more than a solid backup catcher, he won't bring back a player of any substantial value in a deal. Rather, the Cubs could swap him for a player with about the same ceiling but who isn't ready for the majors. It would have to be someone another team views as a potential strain on their own 40-man roster in the year ahead, but in a different way. Rather than being out of options or near free agency, like McGuire, the target would need to be a pitcher who projects to spend much of 2026 on the injured list or a prospect already on the 40-man roster who isn't ready for the big leagues but still has an option year remaining. Even that's relatively unlikely. The best bet is that McGuire would get them only cash. Usually, in trades like the one McGuire would be involved in, a team receives something like $100,000. The Cubs would thus save about $2 million by trading him. That's nothing to sneeze at, but most of those savings can also be realized by non-tendering him. Unless they get an offer too good to pass up, the team might release McGuire just for the greater goodwill doing so would engender. One way the Cubs position themselves to scoop up players like McGuire (or, for instance, Brad Keller, whom they signed on a minor-league deal last winter) is by cultivating a reputation for fair dealing with players in situations like these. Allowing McGuire to become a free agent and choose his next employer might be worth more to the team than they could acquire by trading him, payable in doors opened and calls taken by future free agents. Amaya and Ethan Roberts each fell about a week shy of qualifying for Super Two status, so the team only has Steele, Assad, Morgan and McGuire to worry about Friday. However, they might also make news in a different way. With other teams forced into tougher decisions due to crowded 40-man rosters and/or budget constraints, there will be multiple trades Friday involving not only players like McGuire, but slightly better ones who just don't fit their current clubs. With the extra space on their roster, the Cubs could be a destination for such a player. The Orioles are considering non-tendering right-hitting first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who's set to earn over $7 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Coming off a poor season, Mountcastle isn't worth that much unless you believe he's due for a rebound, but he's a career .282/.334/.479 hitter against left-handed pitchers, and could be a nice bench bat for the Cubs, rotating in at first base and designated hitter to spell Michael Busch, Ballesteros and/or Owen Caissie in various configurations. Andy Ibáñez (of the Tigers) and Jonathan India (of the Royals) are also righty batters with good track records against lefties, coming off rough seasons and on the bubble as Friday dawns. There are also, inevitably, a dozen or so intriguing arms who might shake loose easily. It's a day for small moves, but for a team with few arbitration cases to worry about and lots of room on the 40-man roster, it's a day full of opportunities. The Cubs will make some news Friday, and it could begin to indicate the direction of the offseason to come. View full article

Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images According to multiple reports, the Cubs are among the teams with significant interest in Michael King. That's just preliminary speculation, but it's interesting, because (according to a source familiar with their thinking) the Cubs still view signing King as an option even after Shota Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer on Tuesday, King, who enters his age-31 season next spring, ranked 13th on DiamondCentric's top 50 free agents list, and we project him to find a four-year deal worth $75 million. Right now, however, the Cubs project to spend about $70 million on their existing rotation for 2026. Adding King to the mix would push that number to roughly $90 million, and it would force at least one pitcher whom both the team and the player themselves see as a starter into relief work. Even if Chicago uses a six-man rotation to open next season, it would go something like: Cade Horton King Imanaga Matthew Boyd Jameson Taillon Colin Rea That would leave Javier Assad out of the mix to begin the campaign, and it would mean pushing Rea (or someone else, perhaps) to the bullpen once Steele returns from Tommy John surgery. That's not a deal-breaker in and of itself, because both Assad and Rea have experience in the bullpen, but it's probably incorrect to assume they'll use a six-man rotation, too. There are too many days off in the new version of the MLB schedule to make that the best use of a limited pool of pitchers. Thus, even without Steele, signing another high-end free agent would push both Rea and Assad to the pen, unless and until someone gets hurt. The team should plan for injuries, especially with this group. Thus, the logistical hurdles to signing a player like King are relatively trivial. However, the issue of the salary King is likely to command is harder to work around. Chicago owes Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner and Carson Kelly a combined $83.75 million, and they have holes to fill in both the positional corps and the bullpen. Pushing their collective spending on the rotation as high as signing King would might interfere with their plans. Much hinges on what the Ricketts family is willing to spend in 2026. They should have another $60 million to commit to players this winter, even after Imanaga returned—but it could turn out to be more like $40 million, and the difference there being similar to what King would earn on an annual basis is a telling coincidence. Since King turned down a qualifying offer, it would also cost the Cubs a draft pick to sign him. That's not a deal-breaker, either, because the team is likely to receive a pick when Kyle Tucker signs elsewhere, but the small problems with signing a top-flight starter keep adding up. For a pitcher who profiles more like an ace, it'd be easier to look past all the drawbacks to acquiring him. Alas, he's battled frequent injury trouble, and even when on the mound, his stuff didn't stand out in 2025. King does have a very heavy sinker, and that pitch and his sweeper play gorgeously off one another to righties. To lefties, his four-seamer and changeup play well. He offers a lot to dream on; the 2024 version of him was a solid No. 2 starter. Unfortunately, it's not clear that his injury issues are entirely behind him. Signing him would give the rotation much-needed upside, but not the swing-and-miss element that has been missing for years. It would also constrain their efforts to round out the lineup and replace most of their bullpen. The workaround, of course, is to trade someone from the existing group as they sign King, thereby keeping some money free to spend elsewhere while making the upgrade from whomever they replace to King. The best candidate for that is Taillon, whom they're set to pay $18 million in the final season of a four-year deal. Taillon, 34, had a 121 DRA- last year, marking him as far worse than an average starter, and his strikeout rate has been under 19% in each of the last two seasons. For those very reasons, though, Taillon has virtually no trade value. We could be heading toward a situation similar to the one the Cubs ended up in with Cody Bellinger last year. After planning for life without Bellinger and expecting him to opt out of his deal, the Cubs had to pivot when the slugger elected to opt in. They needed someone better than him, so they traded for Kyle Tucker, but that left them needing to get rid of a player with little trade value. They dumped him for Cody Poteet, whom they wouldn't even hold onto through spring training. It would be wasteful to trade Taillon that way this winter, but it might be necessary, in the wake of another failure to figure out what a key player would do upon studying their options in the marketplace. If the Cubs want to sign King, they probably need to move Taillon, to save themselves the flexibility they need to get better. Starved for leverage, they won't get much back. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images Shota Imanaga might have miscalculated a bit. He didn't think the Cubs would extend him the qualifying offer, so he turned down $15 million for 2026 with the right to earn either $15 million more in 2027 or $42 million more from 2027-28. Then again, the Cubs might have miscalculated, themselves. When they gave the offer to Imanaga, it was (in part) because they believed he would reject it, said one source familiar with their thinking. On Tuesday, each side took their medicine, as Imanaga accepted the offer. That entitles the left-handed starter to $22.025 million for 2026, a nice immediate raise, and it means the Cubs can't trade him without his permission until May 15. In essence, it ensures that the relationship between the two will last one more season, after which the Cubs will not be allowed to make the same offer even if they want to do so. Chicago chose this possibility over a team option that would have amounted to the same annual salary for three years, so they did gain some medium-term flexibility, but they now have a minor logjam forming in their starting rotation. Imanaga, 32, pitched 144 2/3 innings this year with a 3.73 ERA. His strikeout rate plunged, though, and his velocity was down after he returned from a long stint on the injured list due to a hamstring strain. He slots in, tentatively, as the team's second or third starter for 2026, but they now face the challenge of upgrading that department of their roster despite already being heavily invested in it. In addition to Imanaga's $22 million, the team owes Matthew Boyd $14.5 million; Jameson Taillon $18 million; and Colin Rea $5.5 million, not counting buyouts on the 2027 options for Boyd and Rea. Justin Steele is likely to make over $7 million via arbitration, too. That's a heavy investment in the rotation, for a team also locked into four eight-figure salaries on the positional side and needing to fill several more holes. This won't take them entirely out of the market for upgrades in the rotation, but they might feel compelled to trade either Boyd or Taillon to make room for that change, both financially and logistically. View full article

Image courtesy of © Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images It's Decision Day for Shota Imanaga, to whom the Cubs extended the qualifying offer two weeks ago. He doesn't currently count as a member of the organization, but if he accepts the offer, he'll go right back onto the 40-man roster. Right now, there's lots of room for him, but while he makes a decision about his own future, the Cubs have decisions to make about those of several of their prospects who would otherwise become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Tuesday is the deadline for teams to add players set to be eligible (based on the age at which they entered pro ball and the number of seasons they've played since signing) for the Rule 5 to the 40-man roster, thus protecting them from being selected. The Cubs need to protect several players, including infielder Pedro Ramírez and pitchers Brody McCullough and Brandon Birdsell. James Triantos, who was briefly in league with the team's top hitting prospects (Owen Caissie, Moisés Ballesteros and Kevin Alcántara) as they climbed the ladder, has stalled out in the high minors and enters Tuesday as an edge case. The Cubs have the open spaces to spare, for the moment, but if they have as active an offseason as Jed Hoyer envisions, they'll need to keep a few slots on their 40-man open for external additions. The main question with any Rule 5 protection decision is whether the player is likely to be taken if left unprotected. Any team who selects a player in the draft (which takes place at next month's Winter Meetings) would have to keep them on the big-league roster all year, or offer them back to their original team, so the Cubs just need to decide whether they believe anyone will be able to carry Triantos in the majors all year. If not, they can leave him off the list. If, alternatively, they just no longer believe in Triantos, the conclusion is the same. Triantos, 22, was a second-round pick in 2021, and has flashed a plus hit tool at some points during his professional career. However, injuries and a lack of power have stunted his development. In 538 plate appearances with Triple-A Iowa over the last two seasons, he's batted just .266/.322/.371, with 7 home runs. He does offer speed and versatility, but he's not a plus at any important defensive position, and while those numbers might be respectable for a slick-fielding middle infielder in the majors, they're underwhelming (to say the least) coming from a bat-first player still waiting to get the call. Ramírez, 21, is in position to simply take over whatever role the Cubs once hoped Triantos would fill. In 2025, he spent the whole season at Double-A Knoxville, where he batted .280/.346/.386. Those were virtually identical numbers to the ones he put up at High-A South Bend in 2024. He's no future star, but he looks like a solid, well-rounded backup at multiple infield positions, with upside from there. It's likely that the team protects him and lets Triantos dangle. Some of the day's other interesting calls will be on arms. Iowa starter Connor Noland doesn't have a plus pitch, but he was healthy and effective in Triple A in 2025 and offers high-floor, low-ceiling depth. Brandon Birdsell, who had climbed prospect lists and was my sleeper pick to contribute to the parent club when the team reported to spring training, almost immediately went down with a shoulder ailment that cost him the whole season. If he's healthy now, he's worth protecting from selection. The number of vacancies on their 40-man also opens the door to some trades today. The Cubs are in position to swoop in, should another team find themselves in a roster crunch and either not be able to add a player with upside or want to ship out someone taking up a precious 40-man place. By no means do Jed Hoyer and company want to end the day with their roster full, but even if they only add three or four of their current prospects to the slate, they might fill another two spots Tuesday, as well. Imanaga's decision will grab the most headlines, but there will be lots of other activity throughout the league. View full article

Image courtesy of © Mady Mertens-Imagn Images If you'd gone looking for a distinctly Cubs-coded starting pitcher in the free-agent class two winters ago, you might well have come up with Shota Imanaga as tops on the list. He was a veteran starter with an elite walk rate and sneaky athleticism. Though not a strikeout artist, he showed the ability to limit not only walks, but hard contact. He didn't throw hard, and he bordered on undersized, but Imanaga was well-rounded and smart—and left-handed. Jed Hoyer, above all, loves a southpaw. With Imanaga and Justin Steele already in the rotation, one might have reasonably expected that the team would want to diversify last offseason. Instead, though, they locked in on Matthew Boyd—another lefty, without high-end velocity, whose specialties were avoiding walks and working his way to weak contact. Under Hoyer, the Cubs adore a lefty starter who lacks velocity but not command; who needs to work in front of a good defense; and who can therefore be had for middle-tier prices despite having a high-end track record. Every time they acquire another such pitcher, though, it gets a bit harder to justify. As well as the strategy has been working (as far as it goes), the approach has effects that ripple out to the entire roster. Because the Cubs are unwilling to pay what it costs to land pitchers who miss bats at the best rates in the league (and, perhaps, reluctant to accept the extra walks and/or home runs that come when you shop for that skill, instead of command and pitchability), they have to remain extremely stout defensively. That comes with tradeoffs when building a winning offense. It also tends to mean lifting starters earlier, which forces the team to amass more relief depth. Hardest of all to work around, perhaps, is the fact that pitchers who can do what the Cubs want pitchers to do tend to have acquired those skills gradually, rather than being born with them. Hurlers with low walk rates and low opponent hard-hit rates tend to be experienced, and therefore expensive. There are few pitchers who meet Hoyer's standards and are still in their team-controlled seasons—let alone still having minor-league options. Building pitching staffs in the Hoyer style pulls money away from run production in the name of run prevention, even if not all of that money is spent on pitching itself—and it erodes roster flexibility, too. On the other hand: Hoyer's genuinely good at finding guys who will thrive in the system he's built. The Cubs have a good coaching and development infrastructure on the pitching side, even if the things they do don't work as well with draftees and young prospects as with free agents or waiver claims. There's something to be said for knowing what they're good at and staying committed to it. In that light, it's time to talk about Ranger Suárez. This week, the Phillies southpaw will decline his former team's qualifying offer. If Imanaga turns down the Cubs', too, there will be an opening near the top of the Chicago rotation, and no pitcher in the free-agent pool fits the Hoyer prototype quite like Suárez does. He struck out 23.2% of opposing batters in 2025, which is about as high as his punchout penchant rises. He fanned just over 25% of hitters in 2021, but that was as a swingman, and it came back when he threw 93-94. Now, he's more like 90-91. Suárez does have exceptional control, though. He walked just 5.8% of opponents last year, the lowest rate of his career. He fills up the zone with a deep mix, the best offering within which is a changeup that can induce both whiffs and grounders. Because hitters can never lock in on one pitch (and because his sinker has such good arm-side run), Suárez excels at inducing weak contact. He keeps the ball in the park well, and batters had just an 85.7-MPH average exit velocity against him in 2025, considerably lower than the league average. Suárez turned 30 in August, and he's in line for a four- or five-year deal. He'll make upwards of $20 million per year, and signing him would come with the added cost of a lost draft pick and forfeited spending power in international free agency next year. Then again, all the alternatives to Suárez also come with extra costs. In addition to fellow qualifying offer recipients Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Michael King, and Framber Valdez, there's Imanaga, but if he turns down the QO, the Cubs would lose their chance to reclaim a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. There's also Tatsuya Imai, who would only cost cash, but it looks like he'll cost much more cash than Suárez—not only because he's younger, but because whatever he signs for will come with a 15% posting fee paid to the Seibu Lions. Can the Cubs stomach one more pitcher just like the best ones they already have? You can make a fairly strong case against it, but Hoyer spent the GM Meetings in Las Vegas making the case for it, instead. "I think we'll see where the right value is. See who are the guys that that we've, you know, ultimately, the guys you usually sign are the guys you value more than the industry. And think that's kind of the nature of the game, right?" Hoyer said. "Like, Matt Boyd last year, was very clear, like, that was a guy we wanted to sign. We may have valued him higher than the industry, but that's okay. And you know, I think those are the guys you end up signing in free agency, those are the guys that I'm trading for, is the guy you probably value a bit higher than other people." That doesn't automatically mean the Cubs will be in on Suárez, or that they'll sign him, but sources familiar with the team's thinking predicted they will at least show interest. Unless his price tag runs much higher than expected, Suárez will be one of the Cubs' top targets this winter. Is that a good thing? The answer depends on how wise you think their approach to run prevention has been over the last few years. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images Fueled by his friendship with Seiya Suzuki and his eye-catching fashion choices, Pete Crow-Armstrong became an international star when the Cubs went to Japan to open the 2025 regular season. Next March, he won't have to endure as long a flight to experience the same global spotlight. He has accepted an offer to play for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, starting with pool play in Houston in March, he announced Thursday night. Any list of center fielders on the wish list for American manager Mark DeRosa was going to include Crow-Armstrong, and since Byron Buxton (arguably the only other center fielder from the U.S. better than Crow-Armstrong in 2025) will probably elect to avoid the injury risk of playing high-stakes games three weeks before Opening Day, the Cubs' young star has a clear path to playing time for his country. He won't be the Cubs' only representative in the tournament, but Crow-Armstrong is the one who could enjoy a further star turn by playing well there. That doesn't come with direct benefits for the Cubs. In fact, in addition to the slight risk of injury and the significant disruption of the preparation process that is spring training, this is likely to put extra time pressure on any attempts to sign him to a long-term deal. The two sides can't talk as easily with Crow-Armstrong in Houston. As Crow-Armstrong's profile continues to grow, he's also in an increasingly comfortable negotiating position. If the Cubs want to lock him up beyond 2030, they might already need to shift their focus from trying to capture value on a team-friendly extension toward paying the market rate for his services. Contracts signed by similarly famous and talented players (Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Fernando Tatis Jr.) have worked that way, even when the player didn't appear to have the short-term earning power or proximity to free agency to extract that kind of payday. Those players are all better than Crow-Armstrong, whose second-half struggles at the plate exposed very real weaknesses. However, his freakish athleticism and the upside he flashed with a calendar year (from August 2024 through July 2025) during which he batted .271/.312/.524 in 687 plate appearances make him just as dynamic as they are—and he's becoming that caliber of celebrity, too. The Tokyo Series to open 2025, his showcase at the All-Star Game and the Cubs making a two-round push into the postseason put Crow-Armstrong very much on the global map this year. Next year, he'll get to continue carving out a niche. He might even prove himself to be the best defender in baseball, anywhere in the world. The World Baseball Classic is wonderful because of players just like Crow-Armstrong; the endlessly charismatic Randy Arozarena was one of the biggest stars of the last one. Next spring's event continues to fill up with big names, and that's what Crow-Armstrong has already become. View full article

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images The Cubs enjoyed a major free-agent success in each department of their roster in 2025. They signed Matthew Boyd to a two-year deal in late November 2024, and watched him emerge as their co-ace for much of the season. They picked up Carson Kelly in mid-December, and enjoyed his best season as a big-leaguer. Crucially, though, they also hit on multiple minor pickups in the bullpen. Most important among those was righty Brad Keller, whom they signed to a minor-league deal as a starter and who ended the year as their de facto closer. Keller, 30, is a free agent again after earning $1.5 million in 2025. He'll get a much bigger payday this time, and as he enters the market, the big question is whether he'll land a two- or a three-year deal. FanGraphs, ESPN and MLB Trade Rumors agree that Keller is in line for an annual average value in the $11 million range, but whether that stretches for two years or three could make a big difference in the chances of a reunion between the Cubs and their unexpected relief ace. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is a hardliner when it comes to reliever contracts. He's willing to embrace a bit of risk, but that has to come in the form of a free-agent deal he feels is rational. Otherwise, he's equally happy to let that risk take the form of building a relief corps with some lower-cost bets and some upside plays. "We've offered some [long deals to free-agent relievers]." Hoyer said at the GM Meetings Wednesday in Las Vegas. "I haven't given one out. So, I mean, it's not my favorite thing to do. I think that I prefer, you know, shorter commitments in the bullpen. But I'd never say never, like I said, we offered some last year. We just didn't win the bidding. So it's not, it's not a hard and fast rule. But I think you can, you can guess that we're probably going to be more focused on shorter commitments." The big deals he alluded to offering last year were to Tanner Scott, on whom the Cubs were willing to go to four years and roughly $70 million; and Kirby Yates, on whom the Cubs were ready to offer a second year but who preferred the Dodgers even on a one-year pact. While even a two-year deal at an eight-figure salary for Keller would come with a bit of sticker shock, it would be a very palatable alternative to a Scott-level deal for someone like Robert Suarez, of the Padres. One source familiar with the Cubs' thinking said the team considers Keller a priority winter target, but that they're very unlikely to stretch beyond two guaranteed years. A mutual or vesting option could be a way to satisfy both sides, if Keller is open to coming back. By every indication, he enjoyed his season with the team and would be happy to return, but this is the best chance he's likely to get at a major payday, so money will be a major factor. It's possible the Cubs would go further on AAV to keep it to a two-year deal. They might guarantee $25 million over that term, but balk at $34-35 million over three years. Creative structures (like the aforementioned mutual option, which would come with a buyout) could keep the annual real cost of Keller down for them, and the team is unlikely to exceed the competitive-balance tax threshold in 2026, so his AAV doesn't matter as much as the real dollars. Spreading money across a longer term doesn't hold much appeal for the Cubs, when it comes to Keller. They would want to get a shorter-term deal done. If a team steps up with an offer that bakes in some hope for Keller returning to a starting role, the Cubs will surely be outbid. He does have five pitches, which worked in concert beautifully in 2025. He's started so much during his career that some faith in his ability to return to that role is rational. A brief survey of sources in other front offices, however, found no team currently considering Keller as a candidate for a conversion back to the rotation. He's likely to make about $12 million, over either two years or three. If it be the former, there's a good chance the Cubs will be the team who signs him. If not, the odds tilt toward the righty finding a new home—and Chicago being left to chase still more bullpen help. View full article

With Kyle Tucker officially a free agent and little early indication that the Cubs intend to chase after him with $300 million in hand, the unrest has already begun to percolate. At the GM Meetings in Las Vegas, Jed Hoyer seemed to hint that his focus this winter would be on adding pitching—presumably, at the expense of signing a top-flight hitter like Tucker, Pete Alonso, or Bo Bichette. Understandably, some will view that as a needlessly cheap way to build upon a successful 2025 season. At some point, though, the Cubs need to put up or shut up, and not in financial terms. The story of their last half-decade has been a constant insistence that they are one of the top teams in the league at scouting and developing talent, in defiance of the balance of the evidence. They use that refrain, in part, as cover for a lack of appropriate investment from ownership, but they also seem to realize that they aren't as strong as they purport to be. Time after time, they put players in the way of ascending top prospects, and it's never a superstar who supersedes the youngster. Rather, Hoyer has repeatedly hedged. When the team was still building toward something (but not yet actually competitive), he signed Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer to stand in the way of Matt Mervis at first base. Last winter, he traded for Ryan Pressly, rather than entrust the closer's role to Porter Hodge. Hoyer was right not to think Mervis or Hodge were up to the task, but because he still believes that his administration excels at player development, he brought in players who could be easily pushed aside if they did turn out well. Rather than acquire higher-caliber talents who would be locked into their positions for multiple seasons, Hoyer has sought out short-term solutions, hoping that by the end of a one- or two-year deal, the farm system of which he so often boasts will yield the star he really needs. It hasn't happened, save in a few cases, because the Cubs aren't actually excellent at scouting and development. They're in the middle of the pack in that regard, and they're below-average when it comes to developing pitching, specifically. Because league rules give extra draft picks to rivals and penalize big-market teams like the Cubs more heavily for signing elite free agents (and because the Cubs didn't ruthlessly bottom out during their recent rebuild, amassing high-end first-round picks for multiple seasons), the team never has an above-average capacity for acquiring young talent, either. The result is a farm system that isn't good enough to build a World Series contender without greater investment, either in finding and retaining top staffers, improved technology and player resources, or a much higher big-league payroll. Now, though, the team does have three young stars under long-term, low-cost team control. Cade Horton rebounded from an injury-ruined 2024 with a breakout campaign and runner-up Rookie of the Year finish in 2025. Michael Busch, whom the Cubs wisely snatched up after the Dodgers had done the lion's share of the developmental work, is the best hitter on the team. Pete Crow-Armstrong remains an enigma at the plate, but his first full season in the majors provided a tantalizing glimpse of his upside. At the very least, he's one of the game's most valuable defensive players. The team also did well in free agency last year, when they landed Matthew Boyd and Carson Kelly on two-year deals that now look like bargains. Those two players join Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Jameson Taillon and Colin Rea as an expensive but extremely competent supporting cast for the youngsters who have become the loci of value on the roster. The question, at the outset of the winter, is how best to supplement that group. Hoyer sounds much more dedicated to upgrading his pitching staff than to finding a replacement for the departing Tucker, even though the team was hardly an offensive juggernaut in the second half of 2025. The temptation is to read that as a failure by the Ricketts family (and by Hoyer, whose job is just as much to manage up and make the case for more robust spending as it is to manage down) to make enough money available for the team to be great. Suspicion of the Rickettses and their motives is well-founded, to be sure. Still, this is the right time for an approach Hoyer eschewed for too long. Perhaps his (not-quite-earned, but that's a separate issue) contract extension in July has emboldened him, or perhaps he's finally tucking into the hard and vital work of turning this team into what he's been begging fans to believe they already are. Either way, he's taking the right tack. The Cubs should stick with Seiya Suzuki (in right field and at DH, with a fair number of days off against right-handed pitchers), Moisés Ballesteros (as a DH who hardly ever starts against lefties and grabs perhaps 10 starts at catcher), Owen Caissie (right field, swinging over to left sometimes but rarely playing against left-handed starters), and Kevin Alcántara (a platoon partner for Crow-Armstrong in center field, picking up the occasional start in left or right, as well) to supplement their existing group for 2026. Ian Happ can remain the regular left fielder, but have his playing time reduced by roughly 10%. Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki can yield time against same-handed hurlers. Ballesteros, Caissie and Alcántara all appear ready to play in the majors. Caissie, who will turn 24 next July, has 982 plate appearances with the Iowa Cubs already. He's put up elite exit velocities in the minors, and his plate discipline is strong: he swings and strikes and doesn't expand the zone. He will strike out a lot in the big leagues, but the team needs to be willing to accept that tradeoff and embrace the power he can add to the lineup. The biggest missing ingredient for him, in that regard, is a high pulled fly ball rate, but pulled fly balls aren't the way lefties get to their power best at Wrigley Field, anyway. Caissie's bat speed, swing path and resulting batted-ball profile tell us he can slug plenty well by hitting vicious line drives and lofting the occasional 7-iron into the bleachers in left-center field, where the ball carries much better and the dimensions are friendlier. Though the team might wish him to get more playing time at catcher in Triple A, Ballesteros is similarly ripe, having taken nearly 800 plate appearances for the I-Cubs over the last two seasons. He also proved that his swing plays in the majors when called upon late in 2025. It's hit-over-power with him, but again, that's a fine approach for a lefty who calls Wrigley Field home. Alcántara is the most interesting of the set, though the lowest-probability future regular. He's the same age as Caissie, and a better athlete and defensive player. He has to learn to lift the ball to become a star, and that might never happen—but even without doing it, he might be able to carve out a very good career as a slightly matchup-protected outfield piece. He's played a bit less at Triple A than the other two, but he's still at nearly 600 plate appearances there. It's time to let him test his skills against the best pitchers in the world. It's unlikely that all three of them succeed, of course. That would be the case even if they all played for the Dodgers, and we could therefore be more confident that they were well-scouted from the jump and better-instructed on their way up the chain in the minor leagues. However, these are three legitimate, high-end offensive prospects, and the sustainable excellence that has eluded the Cubs since World War II—the decade-plus of being a winning team every year, as they should be in this division if competently run—can't come without giving them real chances to prove their mettle. Hedging time is over. As much as their 2025 playoff push might have led some fans to feel that the Cubs are ascendant in the NL Central, they're unlikely to beat the Brewers and win the division in 2026—let alone to overcome the mighty Dodgers. This team has much hard work left to do, to close the gap between what it is and what it should be. Spending big on pitching this winter makes a world of sense for them, and Hoyer should be applauded for sounding fairly intent on doing so. When it comes to the offense, it's time to let the kids play. If they don't, they're going to end up back in purgatory far too soon. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images Cubs right-handed pitcher Cade Horton placed runner-up the 2025 BBWAA Jackie Robinson National League Rookie of the Year Award, the league announced Monday night. Horton pitched 118 innings of sparkling ball for the Cubs, with a 2.67 ERA, and he blossomed into their ace in the second half. By finishing in the top two of the voting for this award, he earns a full year of service time for 2025, despite the fact that he debuted on May 10 and accumulated just 142 of the 172 days usually required to qualify for that. This means that Horton (who debuted six months ago) will be a free agent after the 2030 season, the same juncture at which Pete Crow-Armstrong (who debuted 26 months ago) will do so. The league's rules about service time and club control have never seemed more farcical, and perhaps they really are so, but either way, the incentive is a major factor for Horton in shaping his long-term earning power. Any extension with which the Cubs approach him this winter will have to take into account that he will be a free agent five winters hence. For Chicago, it's a small price to pay for the dominance Horton gave them, especially in the second half. The team was 15-8 in his starts, including 8-3 over his last 11. Opponents had a .447 OPS against him after the All-Star break. The season ended in frustrating fashion for the young ace, as he broke a rib and was unable to take the mound in the playoffs, but Horton showed the ability to overpower and overwhelm hitters. He projects as their ace heading into 2026. Matt Shaw also received two down-ballot votes from participating BBWAA writers, good for a 10th-place finish. On balance, the Cubs might have hoped they would see more development from Shaw this season, but their sophomores (Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch and Daniel Palencia, especially) were very good, and Horton was great. Jed Hoyer's goal of a winning team built more around homegrown talent and less around free-agent splurges is coming into view on the horizon. Horton is the emblem of that progress, and received a rich reward for that Monday. It should incrementally increase the Cubs' urgency, as they try to make the most of their young core by supplementing it this winter. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jon Durr-Imagn Images That Kyle Hendricks started Game 7 of the 2016 World Series—that it was he who first scooped up the baseball for the Cubs on the night that 108 years of waiting finally ended—is just trivia, really. It didn't have to be. Joe Maddon could have trusted him more, if he'd so chosen, and Hendricks would have met the moment. Maddon was on tilt by the end of the Series, though, and the Cubs' survival in that game ultimately had little to do with Hendricks. He was there. He mattered. But he wasn't the man who drove the bus. A week and a half earlier, though, he sure was. By pure happenstance, really, he was the man who took the ball in Game 6 of the NLCS. Jon Lester was the ace of that Cubs team, and he'd started Game 1 of the NLDS. Hendricks got the nod over Jake Arrieta for Game 2, but that was more because Hendricks pitched much better at home than away that year than because Maddon believed Hendricks was materially better than Arrieta. Hendricks left that NLDS start early, after being hit by a comebacker. He avoided major damage, but that game wasn't going his way, anyway. He only recorded 11 outs and surrendered two runs; he didn't strike out anyone. If things had gone a bit differently in San Francisco, for that team, Hendricks might have landed in any of several very different places in the team's rotation for the NLCS. Chicago nearly finished a sweep when they took Game 3 to extra innings. They nearly had to come home to face the Giants in a decisive Game 5, until a winning comeback in Game 4. As things panned out, though, Hendricks got the ball in Game 2 of the NLCS, and he was very much his usual self again. That night, though, Clayton Kershaw outdueled him, evening that series 1-1 as it headed to Los Angeles. Hendricks didn't participate in the West Coast segment of the series, but when it returned to Wrigley, he was slated to start, and his team held the 3-2 series edge. This time, there would be no telling comebackers. There would be no duel. There was just Hendricks, taking a moment baseball history dropped on him like an anvil and heaving it heroically into place. That weight became no obstacle to Hendricks. It became, instead, the killing stone on which the team ritually destroyed the curse of the billy goat. Hendricks was the tip of the spear. Baseball history contains two postseason games in which one side retired the other in 27 batters, winning and facing the minimum in the process. One is Don Larsen's perfect game in the 1956 World Series. The other was the night that Hendricks became a legend of Cubs lore, and of the 27 outs, 22 were his. It didn't start smoothly. Andrew Toles lined Hendricks's first pitch into right field for a single. No matter. Hendricks is unflappability personified, a low cap and a drooping chin and all the physical expressiveness of a department-store mannequin—with exactly the same capacity to be intimidated as a department-store mannequin. That first pitch had all the nerves he would show all evening in it. It was 89 miles per hour, which meant he'd overcooked it, and it ran right down the middle. His second pitch was a sinker to Corey Seager, perfectly placed, running to the outer edge at 87 MPH. Seager hit a ground ball up the middle, on which Javier Báez picked the ball on the run and made a brilliant tag en passant on Toles, then threw to Anthony Rizzo in one motion for the double play. Justin Turner gave Hendricks his first real batter. Hendricks started the late-blooming slugger with a pair of cutters down and away, one a ball and one a called strike. Then came three sinkers in a row: ball low, foul, foul, each pitch working farther in on Turner, trying to speed him up and get him looking there. He tried a dipping changeup to get the strikeout, but Turner laid off. Finally, on 3-2, he went up and away—a hole in Turner's swing, but only if you get him looking everywhere else before going there. It worked. Turner flied lazily to right fielder Albert Almora Jr. Three up, three down. When Hendricks took the mound again, he had a 2-0 lead, and the biggest challenge was not to let the excitement or a relatively long sit in the dugout take his edge off. No problem. He started Adrián González with a cutter that started on the outside edge and ran into the white of the plate. That took guts, because González had taken Hendricks deep for the Dodgers' only run against him six days earlier, to left-center. Hendricks knew, though, that González would take the first pitch unless it looked fat out of the hand. It didn't; it only looked fat once it was in Willson Contreras's mitt. González tried to get aggressive on the next offering, a changeup that tumbled down to his knees on the same line on the outer third, but whiffed. Hendricks ran a cutter way inside on him, then tried two changeups down and away. On the second of them, González hit a soft, floating liner up the middle, which reached a shifted Addison Russell on a leisurely bounce for an easy out. That brought up Josh Reddick, on whom Hendricks again began with a cutter running into the middle of the plate. Called strike one. His next pitch, this time, was not the changeup but his little-used curveball, and its big, slow arc induced a fooled Reddick to hit a topspin bouncer to the right side. It was so mishit, though, that it fooled Báez, just as it had fooled Reddick. It hit the second baseman in the chest, and Reddick got first on the error. No matter. They say Hendricks doesn't have explosive stuff, but he certainly did on the first pitch to Joc Pederson. Just as he threw a fading outside-corner changeup, fireworks went off in the distance, somewhere near the lakeshore, and Pederson tried (far too late) to step out and call time. All he got for his pleas was strike one. Strike two followed, the same changeup but a little bit off the edge, a little low, fouled away by the anxious Pederson. No anxiety afflicted Hendricks. The next pitch was a high fastball, so rare a sighting from Hendricks that it beat Pederson handily for a strikeout. Hendricks then went to work on Yasmani Grandal, but also on Reddick at first base. The Dodger right fielder was looking runnerish, and Hendricks always excelled at thwarting the running game with his quick feet. He nibbled against Grandal, with a changeup that just grabbed the outside edge for strike one and one buried in the dirt for ball one. A backdoor cutter stole him strike two and encouraged Reddick to get a little more. Lengthen that lead, try the steal, there are two strikes, anyway. Bang. Hendricks fired his 'A' pickoff move over, with that sudden turn of the hips and shoulders and that brilliantly light bit of footwork. Reddick was out by as much as any runner you've ever seen, on a pickoff by a righty pitcher. Technically, it was six up, six down. The Cubs tortured Kershaw again for a while in the second, and scored a third run. All Hendricks had to do was keep the train running. He did face an immediate challenge, though: how to get out Grandal a second time in a row, more or less. The answer was: cutter inside (ball one), then back to the outside corner (strike one, called) changeup fading away (ball two), changeup elevated (called strike two). That four-pitch sequence set up a battle. Grandal, one of the most patient hitters in the league and one of its toughest outs, had seen seven pitches already against Hendricks. Hendricks tried a perfect change on the outer edge, but this time, Grandal spoiled it. Hendricks went farther down and away; spoiled. He tried his more cutting changeup, at the bottom edge over the middle of the plate; spoiled. The high fastball that had disposed of Pederson didn't work on Grandal, because he missed too high with it. That brought the count full, but on 3-2, he went back to the cutter, down at the biottom of the zone. Strike three, on a swing that said Grandal expected the changeup. Chase Utley was due next. Though at the end of his career by then, Utley was a great hitter, and wasn't going to give away an at-bat. Hendricks took one from him by the force of precision: backdoor cutter, strike one; changeup down, on the same edge, ball one; sinker away, drawing X's on the outside corner. Utley lined the pitch to left field, but Ben Zobrist caught it with ease. Hendricks didn't mess around at all with Kershaw: three fastballs in the zone, three strikes. Nine up, nine down. Unwilling to give Toles a second chance to hit the first pitch hard somewhere, Hendricks looped in a curveball on the outer black for strike one. The next pitch was a changeup low and away, nibbling the same edge, and Toles put a very good swing on it—but the only thing it was ever going to hit was the end of his bat. Almora made another easy catch. Seager got ahead 2-0, as Hendricks tried the front-hip sinker and the backdoor curve with insufficient precision. Retreating to his bread and butter, though, Hendricks ran the sinker off the outer edge, and Seager grounded out up the middle again. This time, Hendricks cut it off himself and threw to Rizzo. Hendricks stole a strike with a backdoor sinker to Turner, then missed away with that high fastball that worked the previous at-bat. He came back with a changeup diving down and in on him for a swinging strike two, though, and ahead 1-2, he got a weak grounder to Rizzo by running the two-seamer right at Turner's hands. Twelve up, 12 down. It was when Contreras homered off Kershaw to lead off the bottom of the fourth that Wrigley went from loud and excitable to a true cauldron of sound and fearsome joy. It pretty much stayed that way, and that might have startled or overexcited a different player. Hendricks, for his part, got González on a first-pitch cutter at the bottom of the zone, inducing a sharp but manageable grounder to Russell. He started Reddick with a low cutter, for a called strike. He lost an attempt to throw another backdoor curve, but when he came back from that with a changeup in the middle of the plate, Reddick just popped it up. Báez went over and took the ball away from Rizzo, but whichever of them caught it, the play was going to be easy. Home plate umpire Ted Barrett missed what should have been strike one to start Pederson, on a high cutter, but Hendricks came back with a lower one to even the tally. He missed away with another curve (really, he didn't have great feel for that pitch for most of the night, but all his misses with it were far beyond the areas where he might have gotten hurt), then got strike two with a balloon ball of a changeup away. After that floater, when he threw a sharper, tumbling change in the dirt, Pederson had no chance. It was a swinging third strike. Fifteen up, 15 down. Anthony Rizzo made it, officially, a blowout with a fifth-inning homer. Kershaw tried to get cute with a dropdown slider against him. Rizzo did decidedly non-cute things to that ball. Hendricks had only been expected to give the team about five innings in this contest, and he'd done that. The lead was five. If his night had ended there, no one would have blinked. Instead, he took the hill again, facing Grandal—who had already seen 12 pitches against him in the game. He tried a high cutter to start him, but missed up. He went back to that floating, slightly slower high changeup away, to even the count, but then failed to get the chase when he threw a curve (executed correctly, this time, but to no avail) ankle-high over the inner third. For the first time, he started to look ever-so-slightly tired. He tested the outside corner with a cutter, but released it a hair early and missed high and away with it. For the first time all night, he was meaningfully behind in a count, 3-1. No matter. He threw two gorgeous cutters, one down and in and one that found that upper, outer edge, both drawing whiffs from the sharp-eyed Grandal. Eighteen pitches weren't enough for Grandal to figure him out; none of the other Dodgers would get anything close to that many chances. His command was still a bit compromised. He started Utley with a good cutter down and in, but his impression of a backfoot curveball proved unconvincing, and a 1-1 backdoor cutter didn't reach the plate. No matter. A 2-1 pitch that must have looked like a hittable sinker to Utley was really a changeup that ran off the plate away, and the aging star tapped a grounder to Báez. Kershaw's night ended with Andre Ethier pinch-hitting for him. Hendricks missed with a cutter, then a changeup down and away, but then he stole a strike with a low cutter. He tried to go even lower with a sinker, but missed. Another 3-1 count. No matter. Ethier was trying to buy a walk, and so Hendricks filled up the zone with a cutter. On 3-2, he landed another perfect backdoor cut-piece, and Ethier became the first Dodgers batter all night to hit the ball to Kris Bryant, at third base. It was an easy grounder. Eighteen up, 18 down. Toles had clearly been looking down and out over the plate in each of his first two turns, and he'd been aggressive, too. That made Hendricks's job the third time easy. He threw him a cutter up and in, tying him up badly and inducing a pop-up to Russell. He fired a first-pitch cutter to Seager to jump ahead 0-1, then went sinker-sinker, down and away. One of them missed off the edge; Seager fouled off the other. On 1-2, he tried a change of eye levels with a high fastball, but Seager fouled that off, too. Having set him up, Hendricks went for two straight buried changeups. but Seager laid off them, filling the count. No. Matter. Hendricks had one more changeup to offer, and it was a thing of beauty. He turned it over hard, got two-plane fade on it, and Seager tried to kill it. No luck, no contact, and a strikeout where a walk could have been but was never going to be. Like every other Dodgers batter, Seager was more anxious than Hendricks. He threw Turner another surgical first-pitch, backdoor sinker. He tried to get another whiff with that changeup slicing in under his bat path, but Turner laid off it for ball one. He tried again, but the pitch hung. Turner had been looking for the cutter, though, and even a slightly elevated change brought a weak foul pop-up to Rizzo. Twenty-one up, 21 down. González looks to do damage on the ball down and away, so much that Hendricks tried a first-pitch bender below the zone to start the eighth. It missed. He tried a cutter up and in; it missed. He then went for three straight cutters starting on the outer edge and running in, trying to get weak contact to bail him out of the bad count. Even with five runs of cushion, he wasn't going to walk González. He wasn't pitching for strikeouts or glory, but for the team. On a 3-1 pitch, González obliged him with a fly ball to center field, where Dexter Fowler got his first action of the game. Hendricks's first pitch to Reddick was a cutter that didn't start as far out on the edge as he'd meant, and which ended up right down the middle. Reddick hit a clean single to center, two balls in a row for Fowler, and that ended Hendricks's night. No matter. Aroldis Chapman would finish the job, with two double plays leading to a four-up, five-down save. Before that, though, came the ovation of a lifetime. Hendricks left Wrigley Field with the crowd in as true a frenzy as has met the departure of any starting pitcher in the stadium's history. Báez tugged at the name on the back of his jersey as he started away. Maybe Hendricks wanted to absorb the adulation head-down, brow stoic, but his teammates wanted none of that. They'd just watched him knit them all together, pick them all up when they wobbled, and carry them to the end of the curse, if not quite the end of the night. As great as Kerry Wood's 20-strikeout mega-gem was, it's not the best and greatest pitching performance in Cubs history. This was. Officially, the Dodgers collected two hits against Hendricks that night, and they reached on one error. No matter. That night, that team was perfect, and their starting pitcher made them so. Destiny chose Kyle Hendricks, a nobody eighth-round pick with a fastball from the wrong generation and a changeup from Hell, to be the one who ended sport's most famous droughts. On the night when he made baseball history, the man who famously lived at 88 miles per hour threw 88 pitches. He was masterful, and unshakable, and such a team guy that (even though it took until the very end) he leaned on every teammate to assist or record at least one out, but he was also a towering individual performer in that game. Hendricks won't go to the Baseball Hall of Fame, but he's a shoo-in for the Cubs Hall of Fame. He'll retire, it was reported Monday, so we've seen the last of him in the major leagues. No matter. For most Cubs fans, he'll live and pitch forever, over and over, whenever they close their eyes or go to YouTube to savor the highlights. There might be no more ideal image to capture one player's career in one picture than that moment when, surrounded by teammates and a manager somewhat awestruck by the massiveness and the beauty of his performance, Hendricks handed the ball to his skipper, with Báez tugging at that name to make sure everyone in the park knew just who had dominated on the biggest stage in Chicago sports history. View full article

Image courtesy of © Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs extended the qualifying offer to outfielder Kyle Tucker and to left-handed pitcher Shota Imanaga, ahead of Thursday's deadline to make such decisions. Along with the earlier news that they extended right-hander Colin Rea and that Justin Turner's mutual option for 2026 was declined, the moves round out the team's set of roster machinations as true free agency begins in earnest. For Tucker, the offer was a mere formality. The Cubs were never going to let him go without making that offer, and Tucker will not seriously consider accepting it. This is, in a way, the completion of the trade between the Cubs and Astros last offseason. It becomes (barring the unexpected but still possible development of Tucker returning to Chicago) a trade of Cam Smith, Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski for Tucker and a 2026 draft pick, between the second and third rounds. In 2025, Tucker was less than he or the Cubs hoped he would be—but that was still, on balance, quite good. He batted .266/.377/.464 in 597 plate appearances. He was worth roughly 30 runs more than an average hitter, and was great on the bases. Much of that value was concentrated in the first half of the season, though, and he was disappointingly subpar in right field. The Cubs hoped they were acquiring a player and forging a relationship that would last a decade beyond 2025, but now, they're likely to be happy to take the draft pick and find a replacement for Tucker's offense elsewhere. Issuing the offer to Imanaga is the far more interesting decision, for today. A few months ago, it still looked likely the team would pick up their three-year, $57-million option on him at the onset of the offseason, but after his brutal finish to the season, that went out the window. After Imanaga turned down his own player option, Chicago seriously considered not extending him the offer, sources familiar with the team's thinking said. They were deeply concerned by the problems that developed as he lowered his arm slot in 2025. His fastball's carry remained valuable, but the inability to hit the bottom of the zone with it or get his strike-to-ball splitter working for whiffs steadily eroded his effectiveness throughout the campaign. How the Cubs' winter goes from here might now hinge on whether Imanaga decides to accept the $22.025 million they're offering. That's a significant raise on his side of the equation, though he would have been guaranteed more if he had exercised his option, as he would also have had one after 2026. For the Cubs' part, the money is essentially a wash for 2026. If they'd exercised their own option, they'd be locked in to two extra years, and they'd also have had to make a supplemental posting fee payment to the Yokahoma Bay Stars, Imanaga's former team in NPB. They can easily justify this payment, then, but if Imanaga turns them down, they'll be especially heavy on impending draft compensation and will have lots of flexibility to spend on a replacement for him. They'll receive a draft pick for Tucker (and, if he declines the offer and finds a new home, Imanaga), so they might be more open to surrendering one for the right free-agent signing this winter—especially since, coming off a year of dipping back below the competitive-balance tax threshold, they would surrender only their second-highest pick in doing so. That would be their second-rounder, which is likely to be roughly a dozen picks ahead of the pick(s) they'll pick up. Chicago's projected payroll for 2026 is right around $144 million, but they have to replace a middle-of-the-order bat, supplement their bench, sign at least one starter and replenish their bullpen. If Imanaga accepts the offer, they might not make a splash in the starter market, but they'd then be near $170 million. They're also likely to engage at least one of Nico Hoerner, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cade Horton about a long-term extension, which would raise their payroll for 2026, too. Now, the groundwork is laid in full, and the team knows what they will and won't have to do—and how much budgetary space they have in which to do it. View full article