Matthew Trueblood

5th of *512* in four-seamer rate with two strikes. Just throws too many damn fastballs. Still a good pitcher! Could be even better imo. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF|&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=2strikes|&hfSea=2025|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=100&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_count=on#results

Hate that pitch selection. Throw the slider. You played right into his hands there.

I think I'd have stuck with Taillon for this inning, too. BUT, I also get why Craig chose this path.

Brown/McDonald/Mendoza is a good booth. I think if they were on a different platform and being produced differently than these broadcasts are on ESPN, we'd be LOVING them. Alas.

Seiya should be a good matchup for Estrada..

Even though they didn't blow it open, forcing Estrada to throw 17 pitches in the 2nd was big. Outs vs. available/trustworthy arms clock is ticking a lot louder for the Pads right now than for the Cubs.

That's right. Effectively, he called timeout just as the play clock was hitting zero. No delay of game. (This is still how I think about it, even though I'm no great football fan. 😄 )

Shaw's little burp of a hot month was great, but he's got a long way to go yet, man.

Freddy Fermin playing hero ball behind the plate today for them but it's not enough.

Gotta gotta gotta add on. But boy does it seem hard to get from here to Out No. 27 for SD now. I mean you've gotta be ready to BURN an arm, and that willingness has to pay off in the form of that guy actually having it.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images Winner-advances games are the most fun dynamic baseball gives us. The compression of a Wild Card Series—with so little buildup, no days off and no changes of venue—slightly diminishes the magic one feels ahead of a Game 5 or a Game 7, but even a Game 3 can take on the frenzied feel of an all-in hand of poker. The way the Cubs and Padres each played to get to their date on Thursday evening, that feeling will be cranked up to its maximum. Let's begin with the dramatis personae for this play in nine acts. Projected Padres Lineup Fernando Tatis Jr. - RF Luis Arráez - 1B Manny Machado - 3B Jackson Merrill - CF Xander Bogaerts - SS Ryan O'Hearn - DH Gavin Sheets - LF Jake Cronenworth - 2B Freddy Fermin - C This is the same group the visitors have run out to begin each of the first two games. The Cubs are starting a righty Thursday, rather than the southpaws who took up the bulk on Tuesday and Wednesday, but honestly, the San Diego lineup makes more sense against righties, anyway. Projected Cubs Lineup Michael Busch - 1B Nico Hoerner - 2B Ian Happ - LF Kyle Tucker - DH Seiya Suzuki - RF Carson Kelly - C Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF Dansby Swanson - SS Matt Shaw - 3B This, too, is the same group the Cubs have already been using. There'd ordinarily be an argument for batting Pete Crow-Armstrong ahead of Carson Kelly, but the Cubs are trying to keep their very right-leaning bottom half of the batting order broken up enough to deter some of the more devastating bullpen tricks Mike Shildt might otherwise throw at them. Starting Pitchers Yu Darvish - 15 GS, 72 IP, 5.38 ERA, 23% K, 6.4% BB, 4.7% HR, 39.4% GB, 97 DRA- Jameson Taillon - 23 GS, 129 2/3 IP, 3.68 ERA, 18.9% K, 5.2% BB, 4.6% HR, 33.8% GB, 114 DRA- You don't need exhaustive histories on either of these guys right now. Neither will work especially deep into this game, anyway. Matt Ostrowski wrote a great piece about Taillon's transformation this year via his altered changeup this morning, and I included a bunch of thoughts about Darvish in my scene-setter for the morning. Check those out, if you haven't already done so. The Crucial Bullpen Picture To speak about these questions more concretely and more accurately, let's review the Bullpen Usage chart for each team. First, for the Padres. Player SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Estrada 19 0 0 10 0 29 Morgan 0 21 0 0 0 21 Miller 17 0 0 13 27 57 Hart 0 0 0 0 0 0 Suárez 9 0 0 0 18 27 Morejón 8 0 0 9 33 50 Peralta 0 0 0 6 0 6 Rodríguez 0 21 0 0 0 21 Matsui 37 0 0 0 0 37 Vasquez 0 19 0 0 0 19 It's a win-or-go-home situation, so everyone is available. That said, the Padres have stretched themselves quite thin in relief. Maybe it makes the most sense to begin by talking about the non-premium arms here. It's incredible to watch Bradgley Rodríguez pitch, working at 98-99 miles per hour with two different fastballs and a dedicated secondary for both lefties and righties. He has an arm good enough to rank right alongside Jeremiah Estrada and claim high-leverage work. However, if Shildt really trusted him, he wouldn't be in the group of hurlers who haven't warmed up yet this series and who absorbed some spare innings Sunday. Clearly, there's at least a nagging doubt that he'll hold together under the pressure of a good opposing offense in the playoffs. Unless Darvish falls apart early, don't expect to see Rodríguez. David Morgan and Yuki Matsui are better candidates to do some bridge work. Each has the same weakness: a walk rate up around 12%. The Cubs have really struggled to convert good at-bats to walks lately, though, so that weakness might be mitigated by this particular opponent. Each can be nasty, but each (Morgan righty-righty, Matsui lefty-lefty) is someone Shildt would prefer to hold for narrow matchup work. Randy Vásquez and Kyle Hart are on the roster in case the game goes 12 or 16 innings. Of the remaining hurlers, it's too much to assume that any are unavailable, but there are some places where usage will be tightly constrained. Wandy Peralta will be the first choice for Shildt whenever he decides he needs a big out against a lefty batter, be that Michael Busch, Kyle Tucker or Pete Crow-Armstrong. Adrián Morejón is one of two pitchers I would guess Shildt will try to stay away from entirely, if possible. He just pitched so much in Game 2. The other barely-available arm (thankfully, if you're a Cubs supporter) is Mason Miller. He's a long-term investment for the team. He would need to be intact for the Division Series for them to have a chance there. As tempting as it might be to call upon him for a third straight day, I think Shildt will do everything possible to avoid that. It helps the Cubs' cause a bit that they forced Robert Suarez to throw 18 pitches to save Game 2. That might keep him to just one inning of work Thursday—though given the aggressive deployment Shildt decided on with both Morejón and Miller Wednesday, it seems like whenever the situation demands it, Suarez will be there. The wild card is Jeremiah Estrada. He has filthy stuff, but he's been human this year. He didn't look great Tuesday, but would love the chance to redeem himself more than any other pitcher out there, after the Cubs gave up on him too soon two years ago. He'll be the first-choice right-handed reliever, if Darvish gets San Diego into the middle of the game with anything like a lead. Specifically, because this can matter, here's who each of the important relievers has faced so far in the series. These guys might have incremental advantages if the same matchup recurs; batters do adapt to seeing relievers multiple times in a short span. Pitcher/Batter Busch Hoerner Happ Tucker Suzuki Kelly Crow-Armstrong Swanson Shaw Ballesteros Suarez X X X X Miller X XX XX XX X X Estrada X X X Morejón XX XX XX XX X X X Peralta X Now, let's talk about the Cubs' side of the equation. Player SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Palencia 0 0 0 17 0 17 Soroka 0 7 0 0 6 13 Keller 26 0 0 13 0 39 Kittredge 0 0 0 14 20 34 Pomeranz 11 0 0 11 0 22 Thielbar 15 0 0 0 14 29 Rogers 0 0 0 0 13 13 Rea 0 0 0 0 15 15 Civale 0 0 0 0 0 0 I was very surprised by the way Counsell reeled through his relievers in Game 2, chasing a win that the offense never gave him much chance to claim. Again, everyone is technically available, but in reality, Andrew Kittredge isn't available. He's worked about as hard the last two days as Miller, and although he doesn't throw 104 miles per hour, Kittredge is a graybeard. Trotting him out three days in a row would be asking for trouble. Aaron Civale is the guy on this list who's only there in case of a long extra-inning slog. Colin Rea, a starter by trade who started Friday and threw 15 pitches on his usual rotation day Wednesday, might be available for a short burst Thursday but won't be a priority selection. Otherwise, Counsell's unit is pretty free and fresh. Caleb Thielbar worked on consecutive days 15 times this year and was fine when called upon, but Drew Pomeranz will be the first southpaw Counsell looks to, you'd think. Taylor Rogers will only pitch if Taillon has to leave within about two innings and a true bullpen game breaks out. Daniel Palencia and Brad Keller are not only available, but likely to combine for something like nine outs, if things go according to plan for Counsell. They were each excellent on Tuesday, and neither got the call Wednesday. Indeed, some of Counsell's liberal use of the carousel might have been a way to ensure that he didn't burn out any of the individuals he was using, but that he absolutely wouldn't have to restrict his own choices with regard to Palencia and Keller. Pitcher/Batter Tatis Arraez Machado Merrill Bogaerts O'Hearn Sheets Cronenworth Fermin Johnson Keller X X X Palencia X X X X X Pomeranz X X X Thielbar X X X X Soroka X X Kittredge XX XX X X X Reliever familiarity can matter, but it's probably esoterica in this case. Each manager is really just looking for the right moment to pull their starter and the right decision points to swing from one reliever to the next—and hoping not to hit a whammy along the way. For Counsell, that's probably when Taillon gets through the batting order the second time, just as it was for Matthew Boyd. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Thielbar come in even earlier, though, cutting the day short at 14 or 15 batters faced for the starter and slicing through the lefty lane in the Padres lineup as they come up the second time. Then, the formula could be much the same as it was in Game 1, but with Keller ready to come in an inning earlier. A Few Minor Tactical Notes The Cubs would do well to get Moisés Ballesteros into the game to hit for Matt Shaw or Carson Kelly, if the Padres are locked into a particular righty and the leverage is high enough. Losing a bit of defensive acumen (by going from Kelly to Reese McGuire or Shaw to Willi Castro) is worth it, and the Cubs' bench is plenty deep enough to get through one game. Again, should we see Morgan, keep in mind that he has big platoon splits from the mound side. Darvish and Morgan are the Padres hurlers against whom it's easiest to run. If the Cubs can just get someone on base early, they should be able to take advantage of San Diego by stealing a bag or two. There you have it: all the matchups fit to discuss. This game will be an adventure from first pitch to last. The twists in between are what make playoff baseball a whole different sport than the regular-season version—but a great sport, thank you. With a great deal at stake for each side, this could be hard-fought even for a game of its kind. Savor it. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images Because the Dodgers finished off the Reds late Wednesday night, the Cubs and Padres will square off at 4:08 PM Central time Thursday. They're the middle course in the final Wild Card feast of the round, starting near the time when the Guardians and Tigers will wrap up and ending (probably) just before the Yankees and Red Sox get underway in the Bronx. Sunset in Chicago is at 6:30 on Thursday. On an unseasonably warm October afternoon, the game will begin under the last of burning-off clouds and end right as twilight enfolds the city, turning it all those rich hues of purple, orange and blue that make the four-season city such a jewel. The drama of this game will be reflected by nature itself, even though the crowd will all be in shorts instead of sweatshirts. By the end of the game, those fireworks from Mother Nature will either set the party off like the light rig being run just right at the club, or taunt Cubs fans as they spill angrily out of Wrigley Field, wanting the chill and the crackle of leaves and even the damn rain October usually brings but getting only a defiantly summerish day—one that demands baseball, just when baseball is snatched away from the city for the year. These feelings—both possible feelings—are extremely familiar to Cubs fans. They're old friends, in all the evocative ways that that phrase falls over us when we hear it. What is an "old friend," after all? It's the warmest and most wonderful thing we have; one of the things that makes life worth living. On the other hand, many of our old friends are now aliens to us, or even enemies. Some of them are still friendly enough, but they've softened into far-off acquaintances, and their memory reminds us of pieces of our past selves that we've lost and want back—or that we regret ever being. On The West Wing, the turn-of-century political drama, "an old friend from home" was a code used by the staff when they needed to pull one another out of a meeting for something urgent and private, without the other people they're with knowing anything is amiss. The old friend they're talking about, then, is trouble. It's worry. In some ways, surely, trouble and worry are our oldest and most intimate friends. They're the ones we never get too far from, but we sure wish we could. In "The Sound of Silence," famously, Paul Simon begins by singing, "Hello Darkness, my old friend / I've come to talk with you again." In a song about that onrushing alienation and loneliness we just mentioned above, the first line identifies the one sure pal who never feels far off. Sunset will come right near the last pitch Thursday, and it might well be that 40,000 Cubs fans will feel Darkness at their shoulder by then—but equally, it's possible that Darkness will be splintered and pushed off by the light and sound and heat of a team clinching something that really counts and making their next step toward their ultimate goal. Other teams' fan bases know this duality a bit better, in that they've spent more time with it. Cubs fans have, in the grand scheme of things, relatively little experience waiting out a workday with an eye on the clock and a gathering tightness in their chest, both exhilarated and terrified. A win-or-go-home game awaits, and until it comes, fans' assignment is to get a bit more familiar with this feeling. If the Cubs can (at long last) shake off their century-old identity as irrelevant losers and become the perennial contender they ought to be, it's a feeling their fans will need to understand and manage better over time. The festive atmosphere of Wrigley Field when the team is good is a delightful old friend—a warm hug of a thing, even with the threat of a crushing loss looming in the background. It's fun to live through days like these. It's fun to immerse oneself and open the pores to the full vibrancy of it. It's also a tingly feeling, and that tingle is the danger—the threat of real pain, if things go wrong. No matter. It's worth the risk. Not all old friends are euphemisms. Of course, there will be two especially important old friends Thursday, in ways far more tangible and immediate than anything I've invited you to consider so far. One is Yu Darvish, the player who (perhaps) best emblemizes the collapse of the last great Cubs core. That's not an indictment of Darvish, of course, but of the Cubs—and, perhaps, a bit of an admission that the team got unlucky along the way. They signed Darvish prior to 2018, on a six-year deal meant to help them sustain the high-energy greatness that they'd begun to establish over the previous three seasons. Instead, he got hurt and pitched miserably in 2018. In 2019, he was healthy, but inconsistent. He pitched very well down the stretch and helped the Cubs hang around in a weak NL Central race, but ultimately, he was on the Wrigley mound when the dream of a true Cubs dynasty finally died, in a late-September start against the Cardinals. He took a 2-1 lead all the way to the ninth inning, but Joe Maddon's mistrust of his bullpen had grown so deep that he tried to get a complete game out of a tiring Darvish, who let in two Cardinals runs and lost the game. That was the last gasp. The Cubs tumbled out of the playoff picture; Maddon was fired; COVID hit. Darvish could have won the Cy Young Award in the meaningless 2020 season, but he didn't, and the Cubs lost his meaningless start in the meaningless Wild Card Series they played that fall against the Marlins. Then, the Cubs traded him to the Padres, for what has turned out to be Owen Caissie and nothing else of use. That was five full years ago, now. Darvish is only still in San Diego because he signed a massive extension prior to 2023. He turned 39 in August, and he's nowhere near the pitcher he was at his very best. He doesn't miss as many bats, and he gives up lots of homers lately. He's been hurt (neck, groin, elbow) and missed half of each of the last two campaigns. Yet, he still has six different pitches he throws at least 10% of the time for each handedness of batter, and he still throws strikes. In that way, he's still more like a video game character than a real pitcher, and he's still not the guy you want to face with your season on the line, exactly. He had a 5.38 ERA this year, but after a nightmarish first four starts in July, that number was just 4.23 over his final 11 starts. In those appearances, the Padres went 8-3, and Darvish had a 26.4% strikeout rate against a 4.6% walk rate. He averaged five innings and 19.6 batters faced per game in those starts. The Padres would take that Thursday, though it's a high-variance way to live. That could be one run in five frames; it could be four. It does feel like Matt Shaw could hook a Darvish sweeper into the basket in left field Thursday, and if he does, it will matter a great deal whether there's a runner on base or not. If so, the Cubs will be well on their way to knocking off that old friend. Before the thing is over, though, they'll need to contend with another old friend: Jeremiah Estrada. The jettisoned ex-Cubs reliever became such a story last year for his extraordinary strikeout stuff that it's easy to be let down by his performance this season; he ran into homer trouble of his own and posted a pedestrian relief ERA. He'll have to bear a significant load, with Mason Miller and Adrián Morejón unlikely to be available and Robert Suarez likely limited to one inning. Estrada, too, could give up a big hit to a Cubs slugger, but if he comes in and blows them away instead, it'll deepen the pain of the gut punch that would be losing the game and series. All that familiarity, all that atmosphere, and all that intensity will swirl into a perfect storm for some high drama Thursday. There's a great deal on the line, for both sides. The Padres are stretched thinner and have a dimmer medium-term future than the Cubs, even at a moment when the Cubs' medium-term future is somewhat murky. The emotions will be high. The air will feel electrified, and that electricity will spread and shift faster than usual because of the heat. This is what baseball fans spend April through September craving. Not having won the division, the Cubs need this win to prove their season a legitimate success. Even if they don't come away with it, this series has given us moments. There's no catchy banner to fly for getting the first Wild Card berth in a six-team playoff format, but these games themselves become flags that fly forever in the breezes of memory. Seiya Suzuki's home run and Carson Kelly's follow-up shot. Dansby Swanson's relentlessly smart, nimble defense. Nico Hoerner finding hits everywhere. These things don't fit into a sentence on a t-shirt, but they're the real reward for having won the Wild Card this year. Now, the Cubs need one more good day full of those warm and vivid moments—the kind that live on in your mind long after they happen. Another old friend—the Brewers—awaits after this, and they offer plenty of trouble to worry about. For today, though, the only thing that matters is today. Not long after sunset, tomorrow will take its weight, but for the long hours before first pitch, Cubs fans have to get comfortable with their prickly set of old friends and get ready to revel with a huge collection of them if the home team delivers. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images The Cubs fell behind 1-0 early in Game 2 of the National League Wild Card Series Wednesday, but that's not a major problem. It was still a placid 1-0 in the bottom of the fourth, when with two outs, Seiya Suzuki again awakened the Cubs offense a bit. He slashed a double into the left-field corner, applying real pressure to Padres starter Dylan Cease for the first time. Carson Kelly was due to bat next, and he's not a great matchup for Cease—but he wasn't a great matchup for Nick Pivetta, either, and that didn't stop him from coming up with the game-winning homer in the fifth inning Tuesday. Mike Shildt was not going to get burned that way again. He ordered an intentional walk of Kelly by Cease, and then replaced Cease with left-handed reliever Adrián Morejón. It was a bold move—and an extremely risky one. Shildt set himself up to ask for 16 outs from his relief corps, knowing he would also need to win a game Thursday if they could hold the lead. He also exposed himself, theoretically, to a real risk of being matchup-baited. Morejón was coming in to face Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has batted .188/.217/.376 against southpaws this season. In 188 plate appearances, Crow-Armstrong struck out 55 times. In theory, though, Craig Counsell could have countered that move with one of his own. Justin Turner is on the team to do just two things: keep the vibes strong, and hit lefties. Despite an ugly overall line, he did the latter quite well this year. Turner got 109 plate appearances against southpaws, and batted .276/.330/.429 in them. He's no longer much of a power threat, but even a single would have tied the game in that moment. Then, Counsell could have pinch-run with Kevin Alcántara, who would have taken over in center field the rest of the way. That choice was right there to be made. Counsell didn't make it, though, and the truth is, that's because he'd already missed his chance. Because Counsell values Crow-Armstrong's defense so highly, the Cubs went almost three months without playing so much as an inning without him. Crow-Armstrong's offensive breakout made him indispensable to their humming offense, too, but it was the glove that made the difference. Even before the sophomore center fielder unlocked his offense beginning a few weeks into the season, he had the run of center field. The club traded Cody Bellinger over the winter, thinking (after acquiring Kyle Tucker) that they would have better ways to spend the money owed to him and insufficient playing time to offer him. However, minor pickup Vidal Bruján failed to acquit himself as a backup center fielder, and the team chose not to carry Alcántara in what would have been a fairly small role as a platoon partner to Crow-Armstrong. They didn't have a backup at the position at which Crow-Armstrong excelled, so his offensive output became irrelevant—at least to the question of whether he'd play on a given day. He would. The team needed him. If he got a hit, great. If not, he'd help them merely by running down everything hit to the gaps. It was an easier bar to clear, of course, because there was no qualified alternative within the state of Illinois. Crow-Armstrong left games that he had started just five times all season: June 23 in St. Louis, in a blowout July 11 in New York, in a blowout August 10 in St. Louis, pinch-hit for by Turner in the Cubs' last at-bat with a lefty on the mound and the team trailing August 23 in Anaheim, in a blowout September 6 against the Nationals, due to injury Again, for much of the year, that was because he didn't have anyone behind him. If the Cubs had to play any more defense in a given game, they would do anything in their power to avoid taking Crow-Armstrong and his premium leather out of action. Late in the campaign, though, that changed. Alcántara came up and spent most of the final month with the club. He was available. Still, Counsell ignored him. He (or the organization, or both) simply doesn't trust the rookie outfielder. Alcántara did fine in the limited chances he did receive, batting .364 and drawing a walk in 12 plate appearances spangled across 10 games. It made no difference. His bosses didn't see him as a viable center field option. Ditto, as it turned out, for utility man Willi Castro, whose stint with the team has turned out to be fairly abortive. Injuries forced Castro into the lineup for stretches after he was acquired at the trade deadline, but he never found his rhythm at the plate, and the team barely bothered glancing at him as a center fielder. Thus, they got to this point—to that fourth inning at the onset of October—having squandered any chance to lay the groundwork and prepare themselves for a pivotal substitution. There was no way Counsell was going to thrust Alcántara or Castro into center field for five innings, so Crow-Armstrong was effectively stuck in. He grounded out to end the inning, and the Cubs' best threat of the day dissolved into nothing. They lost 3-0, after a tornado of fire emerged from the San Diego bullpen and blazed across the field. Morejón, Mason Miller and Robert Suarez each got more than three outs, and the Cubs did gently pressure each, enough that they'll be tired if called upon Thursday. Nonetheless, Thursday will come, for Shildt. His gambit worked. He knew Counsell was in no position to remove his lefty batter, despite the utter hopelessness of the matchup thrust upon him, and he took advantage of that. The Cubs blew the game, not by giving up a homer to Manny Machado or by not converting several three-ball counts into more baserunners (though those failures didn't help), but by not using their time wisely in August and September. Lifting Crow-Armstrong in that situation should have been doable, and rehearsed. Instead, it felt impossible. The game turned on a weeks-long anti-decision, made before the Cubs even clinched their place in this series. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images Shota Imanaga will still get the ball for the Chicago Cubs in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series Wednesday at Wrigley Field. He just won't be the first one to do so. After they secured a Game 1 win Tuesday afternoon, the Cubs announced that Andrew Kittredge will start Game 2. Kittredge, who has only gotten more than three outs in a game twice this season, certainly isn't standing in for Imanaga. Nor is he the tip of a bullpen game spear. He's just an opener—a job he's done more than a dozen times before, in a long big-league career spent mostly with the Tampa Bay Rays. Kittredge is the high-leverage righty who matches up best with the Padres' key righty bats, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. He pitched the eighth inning in Game 1, and dispatched San Diego in order on 14 pitches. He saw Freddy Fermin, Tatis and Luis Arráez, but not Machado. Unless Mike Shildt is brave enough to significantly shake up his lineup in response to Craig Counsell's tactic, Kittredge will open Wednesday by facing Tatis, Arráez and Machado—and perhaps Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts. In a series like this one, with up to three games but no days off, every reliever is essentially available twice. A manager might turn to a reliever for all three games of a series that goes the distance, but only in an emergency. By asking Daniel Palencia for five outs in Game 1, Counsell all but announced that the second game in which he would be available is Game 3. Brad Keller, currently holding the anchor role in the relay team that is the Chicago pitching staff, will be called upon to sew up a second win on whichever day the team can position themselves for one, so he needs to remain flexibly available Wednesday. However, with Palencia locked into an appearance Thursday (or not until the weekend, if the Cubs win today), Counsell is using Kittredge up front because he knows he'll need him, and against whom he wants to use him. The change dares Shildt to slide Tatis and/or Machado down in the lineup to punish Kittredge with lefty batters, but if the San Diego skipper takes that bait, he risks seeing his season end with one of those star sluggers in the on-deck circle—while Ryan O'Hearn or Gavis Sheets takes their fifth plate appearance of the afternoon. Using Kittredge right away also slips Imanaga past the meat of the Padres order, the first time through. If he sails through the first with ease or if he's in an early jam, Counsell might well let Kittredge stay in even to face Bogaerts. Thus, when Imanaga does enter, the first batters he faces will be drawn mostly from the Padres' pool of good-not-great left-handed batters. He won't have to bear the times-through-the-order penalty against Tatis or Machado any time before the fourth or fifth inning, and he can face up to 24 batters without facing Tatis or Machado a third time. It's unlikely that Imanaga will pitch to that many batters in this game, anyway. The only scenario in which he does so is one in which the Cubs trail, but narrowly, and he's pitching very well. We can, broadly, sketch the plans Counsell has in mind for the various forms the game might take, understanding that everything is subject to change in playoff baseball. PLAN A: Kittredge (1), Imanaga (5), Michael Soroka (1), Caleb Thielbar (1), Keller (1) - If no individual pitcher runs into major trouble, and if the Cubs can carve out even a small lead, this is the idea. Kittredge takes care of business in the first, then yields to Imanaga, who slices through the lineup twice (plus a batter or two). With someone like Jose Iglesias or Freddy Fermin due to see him a third time, instead, Imanaga will give way to Michael Soroka, who will pitch them through the briar patch of Tatis and Machado. Caleb Thielbar will be tasked with shutting down the very lefty-heavy band of the Padres lineup one last time, before Keller comes into finish the job. PLAN B: Kittredge (1), Imanaga (2), Rea (3), Thielbar (1), Soroka (1), Keller (1) - This is what happens if Imanaga doesn't have it Wednesday, and is getting hit hard or giving up home runs one turn through the batting order—but the Cubs are keeping the game in winnable territory with their bats. Colin Rea is the long man Counsell trusts most, even though Soroka is a key cog for this playoff bullpen. The latter is better-suited to a short-relief role than is Rea, and this is where Rea could shine. Of course, the usage of each of the last three hinges on whether the team does successfully keep the game winnable. PLAN C: Kittredge (1), Imanaga (3), Soroka (1), Thielbar (1), Civale (3), Rogers (1) - This is the outright "uh-oh" plan. If Kittredge gets ambushed or Imanaga gets shelled, and if the team is down by two or three runs by the top of the sixth, we're likely to see Aaron Civale and Taylor Rogers eat innings to close out the game. Given the strength of San Diego's bullpen, a deficit of any more than a run after the game's midpoint has to be treated like an expected loss today; the Cubs have that luxury and need to remember it. In this case, Counsell would keep the powder dry, not only reserving Keller's second appearance for Game 3 but choosing Civale over Rea. That would leave Rea, along with Drew Pomeranz, Keller, Thielbar and Palencia free to provide support to Jameson Taillon if needed on Thursday. This isn't a sign of mistrust in Imanaga; it's just a response to the unique structure of the Padres' roster and lineup. Imanaga should be the second arm into the fray, and he should stick around a while. How long will depend on how the game goes, but the Cubs don't have to sweat the details overly profusely in advance. The Padres are the ones with the narrow path to advancing, now. The Cubs have lots of ways to achieve that, and using their second Kittredge outing right at the front end of this contest is just a way of gaining more information while leveraging that greater flexibility. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images The nervousness that creeps into Wrigley Field when the playoffs start to go wrong in the playoffs is familiar, and it makes a seasoned Cubs fan's skin crawl. Everything feels slightly wrong; you become aware of your socks. There have been too many near-misses and deflating setbacks crowded into the Friendly Confines over the decades. Those moments shoulder in and take standing-room places amid the present; the quiet of a loss settles over the crowd before the loss even has to be real. It was starting to get that way in the fifth inning Tuesday. The Cubs allowed just one quick, cheap run, in the second inning, when Matthew Boyd yielded a bloop double to Jackson Merrill and then a scalded line-drive two-bagger to Xander Bogaerts. By the bottom of the fifth, though, it began to feel like that might stand up. Nick Pivetta was cruising, with a fastball that was beating the Cubs' barrels so consistently he hardly went away from it. Chicago batters tried to sit on his breaking ball, at times, and when they didn't get it, they were lost. Then, like lightning striking twice—like a boxing combo, so sudden and forceful and carefully earned by all involved—the Cubs flipped the game. I mean, they totally flipped it. First, Pivetta made an error. In his first at-bat against Seiya Suzuki, he'd stayed away. He teased him with fastballs, then got him reaching, dipping, for a low curveball. We know that that doesn't work for Suzuki; he hit a lazy flyout. The devilish thing about baseball, though, is you have to get a guy out more than once. The second time he saw the Cubs' No. 5 hitter, Pivetta wanted to show him something different, so he started pounding him inside. It was a case of trying to be too brilliant, with a twist of not having updated the scouting report recently enough. Suzuki did seem to be looking away to start the at-bat, but he quickly cottoned on and shifted his sights to the inner half. That was a major problem for Pivetta, because although Suzuki had a bit of a hole inside for much of the second half, he'd closed it up during the final week of the campaign. If the ball had been above his hands, Pivetta might have been ok. It wasn't, and Suzuki sent a missile deep into the left-field bleachers. The quietude exploded and evaporated, and your socks receded into your subconscious. That brought up Carson Kelly, which should have been good news for Pivetta. Kelly was one of his six strikeout victims through the first four innings, which the hurler accomplished by sticking to a simple plan: fastballs up and away. Kelly really struggles against heaters in that location, especially from righties, and the Padres clearly knew that. If you read our advance scouting guide to the series this morning, even you knew it: Kelly was not a good matchup with Pivetta, from the Cubs' perspective. Chastened by the failed Suzuki experiment, perhaps, Pivetta and catcher Freddy Fermin (working together for the first time, with Pivetta's personal catcher Elias Díaz hurt; it seems a heinous oversight by the Padres not to have gotten the two some game action in tandem during the regular season run-in) decided to go after Kelly the same way they had the first time. And honestly, that should have worked. Kelly is one of those hitters whose swing really loses its juice when the ball gets into the upper third of the zone, and especially above it. He can't hurt you there, most of the time. In fact, until Tuesday's fifth inning, Kelly hadn't hit a high four-seamer from a righty with any real authority all year. To find instances of him doing it, you have to go back to last July. Here's the thing, though: the previous examples should have been warnings. Here's Kelly swatting a very high, backspin fly ball just over the wall for a grand slam against the Twins last summer. MVlENGdfWGw0TUFRPT1fVlFKWVYxTUZWZ0FBWEFRTEJBQUFVbFFIQUZnRld3SUFDbElDVVFJRVZRTUhVd1lE.mp4 That, by the way, came against a pitcher (then-rookie David Festa) not at all unlike Pivetta in terms of pitch mix and approach. Here's a ball from a few weeks later, on which Kelly came up just shy of a scoreboard-flipping late bomb in Toronto. S3d4dnZfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGdaWEFWd05BMVFBV2xFS0FBQUFVd2RSQUFCUUJsWUFBVnhUQVF0WFUxWURWUXBX.mp4 Kelly is in a better position to generate power this season, with alterations to his stance and stride. That's why he had a better year at the plate this year. However, he also has something in him—a little bit of the timid hero. He doesn't swing for the fences at the top of the zone, almost ever. When the moment is biggest, though, he makes little exceptions. And sometimes those become very, very big exceptions. To really understand what a twist that swing is, consider the chart on the left (of all his regular-season homers this year, by pitch location) and on the right (the chart for his at-bat in the fifth Tuesday). Pitch 6, up there on the bar of the top of the zone, is not in his power zone, except when the adrenaline is flowing. Then, he can make it so. That, as it turned out, was the game. The crowd stayed loud; the Cubs created some insurance; the bullpen was magnificent. We'll have more on this contest before the next one tomorrow afternoon, but for now, suffice it to say this: Suzuki and Kelly made excellent adjustments and met the moment in unexpected ways. That's the stuff of which memorable playoff appearances are made. That's what makes a baseball fan's socks roll up and down, without their even noticing. View full article

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images For your average, everyday, regular-season series, it would be borderline psychotic to spend hours putting together a comprehensive scouting report on the opposing team. That's what teams do, of course, because it's the only way to be ready to play the increasingly complex modern game. Fans, however, have to be a bit more cavalier. Every game is just one of 162. Even a three-game weekday series is just under 2% of a full season. All that's out the window now. This three-game weekday series might not even go as long as three games, if one team shows up materially more prepared than the other—and for the loser, it will be 100% of the rest of their season. Thus, it's time to spend your morning commute (or coffee break, or suspiciously long on-the-clock dump) tackling some questions you'd barely graze, if this were the regular season. The Padres and the Cubs play two afternoon games this week, at Wrigley Field. What Game 3 of that set might look like, we can't afford to worry about yet. Right now, all that matters is how the first two will go. They're each scheduled for a 2:08 PM CT first pitch, and will be nationally televised. The pitching matchups for each are set, and they're intriguingly similar. It'll be almost (but very definitely not exactly) like playing the same game twice. If one team wins that game both times, the other's season will crash to an end. These are two very good teams, only lightly diminished by injuries and the grind of the long season. How do they match up? Essential Details Game 1: Padres Starter: RHP Nick PIvetta - 31 starts, 181 2/3 innings, 2.92 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 3.1% home-run rate, 33% ground-ball rate, 93 DRA- Cubs Starter: LHP Matthew Boyd - 31 starts, 179 2/3 innings, 3.21 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate, 2.6% home-run rate, 37% ground-ball rate, 96 DRA- Key Personnel Consideration: Elias Díaz is Pivetta's personal catcher, and is likely to play Game 1. Current weather forecast: Sunny, 77°, winds expected to blow in at 8-15 MPH Game 2: Padres Starter: RHP Dylan Cease - 32 GS, 168 IP, 4.55 ERA, 29.8% K, 9.8% BB, 2.9% HR, 36.6% GB, 86 DRA- Cubs Starter: LHP Shota Imanaga - 25 GS, 144 2/3 IP, 3.73 ERA, 20.6% K, 4.6% BB, 5.5% HR, 29.1% GB. 114 DRA- Key Personnel Consideration: In a series full of fly-ball pitchers, Imanaga achieves an extreme even in that crowd. The Cubs need to field their best defensive outfield in this game. Current weather forecast: Overcast, 74°, winds expected to blow in at 8-15 MPH Projected Lineups Because of the similarities in profile (handedness for each pair, pitch mix for Boyd and Imanaga, arm slot for Pivetta and Cease), the optimal lineups for these teams will be nearly identical for the two games. Interestingly, neither lineup will feel especially familiar, because each team has just had injuries shake up their daily corps—and each is facing a set of pitchers that changes what they do a little bit, relative to their default setting. Padres Fernando Tatis Jr. - RF Luis Arraez - DH Manny Machado - 3B Gavin Sheets - LF Xander Bogaerts - SS Jackson Merrill - CF José Iglesias - 2B Ryan O'Hearn - 1B Elias Díaz (G1) / Freddy Fermin (G2) - C Cubs Michael Busch - 1B Ian Happ - LF Kyle Tucker - DH (G1) / RF (G2) Seiya Suzuki - RF (G1) / DH (G2) Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF Dansby Swanson - SS Nico Hoerner - 2B Carson Kelly - C Matt Shaw - 3B The Skinny To topline this thing, you need to know the following: The Cubs brought Kyle Tucker back from the injured list this weekend, but only as a designated hitter. It's not clear whether he'll be able to play right field, and while Seiya Suzuki has been better at avoiding the bad read or the clank-and-drop this year, he's much more prone to the disastrous play than is Tucker. That goes extra on a sunny day, forced to play right field. Whether Tucker can play right field might turn out to matter much more than you would guess, even though he himself has been merely passable with the glove. Nick Pivetta had a career year, after signing a disappointingly team-friendly contract with San Diego over the winter. He'd never had an ERA under 4.00 before, and this season, he got under 3.00. He fills up the strike zone, and can miss bats with his breaking stuff against hitters of both handednesses. Dylan Cease, set to become a free agent this fall, went the opposite way, at least in terms of surface-level numbers. He's better than his ERA reflects, though he's always been somewhat susceptible to this type of season. San Diego lost key contributor and right-handed bat Ramón Laureano to a hand injury during the final week, and he'll miss this series. That's a huge blow for the Padres. At the same time, they got Xander Bogaerts back from a prolonged absence just before the season wrapped, which balances things out somewhat. The Cubs can understand that, of course, with Tucker returning to the lineup at the last minute just as they lost would-be playoff starter Cade Horton. These teams split the season series, but that doesn't tell the full story. In each of the last two years, the Cubs' most painful loss (arguably) was to San Diego, in April. Last year, they lost 9-8 in a game they led 8-0 into the middle innings. This year, they squandered a 7-3 lead in similar, excruciating slow-motion fashion—this time, at home, where they'll play these very games with everything on the line. That's a part of the Padres' identity. Only Atlanta and the Blue Jays won more game than did San Diego (9) when trailing by multiple runs after four innings this year, so if you get ahead of them, you have to keep your foot on their throat. (The Cubs, because you're wondering, won just four such games this season.) San Diego's offense can be dynamic, but they've underachieved. The biggest reason for their comeback ability, arguably, is their remarkable bullpen. With Robert Suarez, Mason Miller and ex-Cub Jeremiah Estrada anchoring a ferocious group, they can shut you down if they get ahead—but they also make it harder to extend a lead, especially in a game that matters enough to justify using their best relievers even while behind. Beyond the batter-pitcher matchups we're about to break down at length, the Cubs have two enormous advantages in this series. One is their defense, which has been worth 83 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) this year, second-best in MLB. The Padres come in 14th, at 28 DRS, and even that comes mostly from right field and behind the plate. The Cubs are much better at turning balls in play into outs, and the Padres don't specialize in hitting the long ball, the way they used to. The other major advantage lies in the running game. Fermin can be a deterrent and a runner-killing machine behind the plate, but with Díaz and the sometimes-inattentive Pivetta starting Game 1, the Cubs have a chance to run and create runs via small ball—assuming they can get on base. The Padres will have no such opportunities. Boyd and Imanaga are two of the six pitchers (of 500 qualifiers) who hold runners closest, and each has a good pickoff move to make overeager guessers pay. The Advance Scout's Handbook This is the section of this piece to keep open during the games for these two days. We're going to talk about the specific ways individual batters match up with the starters on each team, and talk about how the Cubs need to execute to get the better of matchups that (taken as a whole) do seem to lean in their favor. The Padres Against Lefties With Horton off the board, the Cubs will hand the ball to Boyd in Game 1 and to Imanaga in Game 2. That means two straight days with a southpaw on the mound, who brings with them some funk and whose arsenal has as its key components a four-seam fastball, a fading offspeed pitch, a slider and a curve. Each pitcher adds other wrinkles, and their pitch shapes and velocity bands aren't identical, but Boyd and Imanaga are similar enough that we can study the best way for each to attack the Padres' batters, without significantly differentiating them. Fernando Tatis Jr.: Lefties can get Tatis out with four-seamers up and away. However, if they miss laterally while trying to hit that corner of the zone, they pay a hefty price. Tatis likes the ball up, and wants to turn on it with his fearsome swing. When building a gameplan against a hitter, you have to create some margin for error, so the right way to attack Tatis is to line the bottom of the zone with the fastball, then dip below the zone with the changeup (or, in Imanaga's case, the splitter). Tatis has been worse as a power hitter this year, and lefties have been especially good at stumping him, but he's made up for the loss of punch with much-improved patience. As a result, Imanaga might have to be willing to walk him at times, rather than risk throwing a fastball that catches the wrong pocket of the zone. Boyd, whose changeup stays in the zone much more often and can play off the fastball even when it's landing in close to the same vertical location, has the better answer for what Tatis is doing well in 2025. The key really, truly is to keep the ball down and away; he can't lift the ball when lefties hit their spots right now. Make him beat you with a single and a steal, especially because he's been caught seven times attempting steals this year and the Cubs have pickoff artists on the hill. Luis Arráez: Much more than most hitters, Arráez adapts his swing plane based on pitch type and location. That's the sign of a hitter who's able to recognize pitches earlier than almost anyone, which is why he's such a contact freak. Stunningly, in over 20 swings, he didn't whiff on a curveball from a lefty even once this year. However, he trades bat speed for all that adaptability, so you really just have to pound him low with the fastball. His swing works neatly out away from him and above the belt, but crowd him or hit the bottom rail of the zone with four-seamers and Arráez often gets himself out. Caleb Thielbar is actually a slightly better matchup for Arráez than are Imanaga or Boyd, because whereas they (and Drew Pomeranz) each lean toward elevating the fastball, Thielbar has the ability to dot the bottom line with his; he throws 17.8% of his fastballs in the lower reaches of the zone. You just have to resist the temptation to try to punch Arráez out. Throwing him a changeup or a curve is creating a threat where none exists. Don't do it. Manny Machado: It sounds reductive, but so much of getting Machado out as a left-handed hurler comes down to execution. He's the one Padres hitter who has mashed lefties this year, and we might see Mike Shildt put two lefties behind him in the order to punish any attempt by Counsell to bring on a righty reliever to deal with him. Thus, a game could easily come down to whether Boyd or Imanaga (or Thielbar or Pomeranz) can get Machado out in a key spot. That, in turn, comes down to sequencing and location. Machado uses good anticipation and his plus bat speed to get the barrel to inside fastballs against lefties very well. He slows his bat slightly and tends to clip the ball, leading to line drives to center field rather than long flies to left, but it's a reliable way that he produces hits. To get him out with the heater, you have to elevate. He will whiff up there, especially up and away. Once he reaches a two-strike count, though, Machado makes a major swing adjustment and can line that high heater the other way. The best plan is to start him with high, teasing heaters, then throw your best breaking ball or changeup to get him out with two strikes. That's the standard formula, but it's comforting to know that it works; not every right-handed batter can be gotten out so simply. Running changeups work better against him than the ones with more of a vertical shape, so Imanaga could do well with a strike-to-ball sweeper. Boyd's change suits Machado's weakness better. Each has the tools to avoid letting him hurt them, though. It's just going to hurt a lot if you miss in the middle of the zone to him. Gavin Sheets: Lefties can safely start Sheets with a fastball for a strike. He's passive early in counts, with just 10 swings (and two hits, both ground-ball singles) on first-pitch fastballs from lefties this year. He's seen 39 such pitches, so he's willing to take a strike, and even if he swings, you're not in a ton of danger. Thereafter, crowd him with that heater. Sheets has a very flat swing and wants the ball on the outer half; inside heaters from lefties eat him up. Xander Bogaerts: It's extremely important to pitch Bogaerts backward. He's very dangerous on fastballs from lefties in early and hitter-friendly counts. He's also heavily prone to whiffs on offspeed pitches, though, so as long as you don't leave that pitch on the inner half, it's not terribly hard to get him out. Start Bogaerts with a changeup or splitter away, then finish him with fastballs and be ok with that finish being a lazy fly ball, rather than a strikeout. Jackson Merrill: The follow-up to Merrill's run at the Rookie of the Year Award last year has been underwhelming. He's a more smooth-edged but less toolsy rendition of Crow-Armstrong. The key, especially as a lefty, is to attack Merrill with high fastballs. Miss low, and you'll pay. Even though his numbers are down and his swing speed looks initially unimpressive, he has a uniquely steep swing that makes him lethal when he draws a bead on a low heater. In that way, he's very much like Crow-Armstrong. Don't try to sneak a first-pitch cookie past him, like you can against Sheets. Be willing to nibble, see if he'll chase, and then let him get himself out on a mishit fly ball when you get the fastball up near the letters. José Iglesias: This is, perhaps, Shildt's most interesting lineup decision. He almost has to sit Jake Cronenworth; you can't run five lefty hitters out against a pair of lefty starters. Iglesias isn't as dangerous as Cronenworth can be at his best, but he's a tougher out for a lefty than Cronenworth usually is. He's not going to tap the ball on the first pitch. He has zero balls in play on 18 first-pitch offspeed pitches from lefties this year. He also won't swing at the change if the count goes to 3-2; he didn't offer at any of the four he saw. In between, he'll go for a changeup, but the best plan is to start him with a breaking ball, get strike two on the change, and then go up and away with a fastball for the strikeout. That's a common hole in the swings of righty batters facing lefty pitchers, and given Iglesias's swing plane, his lackluster bat speed exacerbates the problem. Ryan O'Hearn: If Laureano hadn't gotten hurt, O'Hearn might have been the odd man out in the lineup shuffle. All things considered, he'll probably start at least one of the games; he's a terrific defensive first baseman. Against a good lefty, though, he's an easy out. If you can hit your spot on the outer third to him, and you can put any other pitch at all in his head, you can get him out with the fastball. He looks inside for fastballs and lets his bat catch up to anything slow or spinning away from him; he doesn't have the bat speed to cover the outer-half heat with that approach. It's all about making him respect something softer, without actually throwing anything in the zone except the fastball away. Freddy Fermin: Never, ever play with your food—especially in the playoffs. Fermin has an even worse version of the hole in Iglesias's swing. Aim for the upper and outer quadrant, and take care of business. Hitters will adjust if you go to the well too many times that way, of course, but even a modicum of mixing in other stuff to set it up will make a simple fastball an out pitch to Fermin. Elias Díaz: Just don't leave the changeup up, and you'll be fine. Días, who was only very briefly anything else, is purely a mistake hitter at this point in his career. He doesn't have much plate discipline or an adaptable swing. Jake Cronenworth: Unlike almost all his teammates, Cronenworth won't whiff on your lefty fastball. Start him with soft or spin. He tries to get opportunistic early in at-bats, and occasionally, he gets himself out by taking a fastball hack and dribbling a ball somewhere on a slider. Crucially, though, don't double up with the heater deep in a count, when trying to put him away. He's going to hit that hard somewhere. The Cubs Against High-Slot Righties Who Fill Up the Zone Nick Pivetta throws a good-not-great fastball, and a host of other stuff—but really, he's two different two-pitch pitchers, with a few decorations attached to each. Against lefty batters, he leans almost exclusively on the fastball and the curve, with just a few cutters and other baubles mixed in. Against righties, he's a four-seamer/sweeper guy, with a few cutters to keep people honest. It's not hard to identify Pivetta's pitches out of his hand. His curve has that dreaded hump, for lefties. His release angle is different enough to separate the fastball and the sweeper relatively early. You could get yourself a long way down the wrong road, therefore, by assuming that it's easy to lock in on either pitch and tee off. It ain't so. Pivetta's main offerings diverge so much in terms of velocity and movement that, even though hitters will often spot it fairly soon, they struggle to adjust enough to get the good part (or any part, sometimes) of the bat on the ball. Guys often freeze, even, and take a called strike on a fastball right down the middle, having known it was that pitch in that spot but not having pulled the trigger. He gets you moving and thinking, and then you realize you're so far off your visual target that it's not even worth trying. Thus, the key to hitting him is anticipation. You have to mentally eliminate one of his two main offerings to hitters in your batter's box, at least once or twice an at-bat, and just commit to attacking the pitch you think you're getting. It's a bit different with Cease, but because his pitch profile (and the over-the-top look he offers from a similarly tall frame) is so akin to Pivetta's, hitters end up solving the same sets of problems. This is another small advantage for the Cubs in the series. More so than Imanaga and Boyd, Pivetta and Cease almost train hitters to hit the other. The Cubs' batters should feel like they're getting a third and fourth look at Pivetta when they face Cease in Game 2. In fact, that Pivetta essentially ended up in front of Cease in the rotation for a big chunk of the season might be why Cease's numbers don't look good this year. The lineup I sketched for these games reflects the unique challenge of hitting pitchers like these two, and the way that bends things relative to a standard-issue opponent. By a healthy margin, the best hitter on the team against pitchers who share key traits with Pivetta and Cease this year is Busch, so there was no need to shake up the top spot in the order. However, this type of hurler neutralizes Nico Hoerner in a way almost no other pitcher type in the league can. Thus, I have him slid far down the batting order. Benefiting therefrom is, among others, Dansby Swanson, who took Pivetta himself deep earlier this year and has good overall numbers against pitchers like him. TkFkVkJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQUFkVVhGeFJVZ0lBRHdjREFBQUhBdzlVQUFBQ1dnTUFBQUJYVmd0VUExRUhWQVJR.mp4 Ian Happ slots in second, for me, because although he's struggled against pitchers with this general profile, he seems to have really figured out the specific task of hitting Pivetta. He's not good at covering both pitch types he sees from Pivetta; it's not in the nature of his swing. But he's locked in and timed himself for one of the two, and come up with very well-struck hits against Pivetta as recently as April. TkFkVkJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQVFOU0FnSUhBZ0lBRDFZR1h3QUhBRmNDQUFCVFV3VUFVMVZSQmdSUVZRVlhCUXRW.mp4 Because that appears to be a special case of Happ figuring out a pitcher with a tricky pattern, though, if you want to see him slide down the card for Game 2, you'll get no argument from me. Tucker, for what it's worth, is not especially well-suited to hit this kind of pitcher, and didn't have much success against Pivetta this spring. He did hit the ball hard a few times, but always right at someone or with a bit too much loft. That's the risk for his swing path in the area of the zone where Pivetta lives to lefties. He'll make his Cubs legacy, if at all in the series, when he gets a shot at Mason Miller later in games; that's a better fit for his unique brand of brilliance. Otherwise, he might need to settle for a wrong-way single at a key juncture. The other player pushed far down the order—further than he's been since mid-August, in fact—is Kelly. That's because he's even worse than Hoerner against pitchers like Pivetta and Cease. Their stuff is just a nightmare fit for his swing path and his patient approach. The Cubs should, in fact, consider pinch-hitting for Kelly with Moisés Ballesteros and then swapping in Reese McGuire if Kelly's spot comes up in a pivotal situation during the series, with Pivetta or Cease on the mound. A Few Bullpen Thoughts In a series this short, it's not as important to sweat the possible overexposure of particular pitchers that comes from bringing them into multiple games and giving the same hitters multiple looks at them in a short span. On the other hand, there are no off days in this set, either. Fatigue could come into play for the relievers, as well as for starters. Look for both Counsell and Shildt to shield their high-leverage arms from working back-to-back in Games 1 and 2 if at all possible, because they certainly won't want to have to turn to anyone for a third straight day in Game 3. Taylor Rogers will probably only appear if the series goes to a Game 3. Unlike Thielbar, he's not a materially better matchup for any of the Padres than Boyd or Imanaga are, so unless one of those two departs very early, Rogers probably won't be called upon., He could, however, easily be a better matchup for someone than Jameson Taillon is, by the fourth inning of a decisive Game 3. It's in that contest that all hands will truly be on deck. Estrada, though an elite strikeout arm, is too similar to Pivetta and Cease to be a great backup to them. He might be unexpectedly vulnerable to a huge hit late in a game, so don't despair if he comes in to try and protect a thin lead for the visitors. Machado and Tatis are, obviously, the most important bats to target with the Cubs' late-game trio of right-handed relievers. They're neighbors in the lineup, but it's not necessarily the case that the same righty should face them in any given spot. Andrew Kittredge is the best matchup for both players, so mentally, slide him up the reliever hierarchy in your mind. Brad Keller is a bit better an option against the two than is Daniel Palencia, whose stuff should play well against Arráez and Sheets. Benediction This series is going to be a blast. The Cubs are well-positioned to win it, despite the absence of Horton and the uncertain readiness of Tucker. Hopefully, this exhaustive study will make you feel a bit more aware and a bit less anxious during the action. If both sides play a facsimile of their best game, it's the Cubs' that should win out, and we can have another long conversation like this one this weekend as the team travels to Milwaukee. View full article

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Earlier this morning, we talked through the options the Cubs face when constructing a 26-man roster for their upcoming Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres. In the process, I proposed that the team is likely to carry 15 position players, allowing for the possibilities of injury, ejection and mid-game substitutions, be they tactical or based on the nagging injuries a few key hitters are carrying. Now, it's time to look at the other side of the roster list. If the Cubs do take 15 hitters, they'll have 11 pitchers to work with as Craig Counsell prepares for 81 outs (or a few more, or many fewer) over three days. Let's talk about who they'll be, and who's on the outside looking in. Starters (3) Matthew Boyd Shota Imanaga Jameson Taillon It would be a substantial upset, for me, if the Cubs gave the ball to anyone but the three hurlers named above, or in any other order—should the series go three games. Matthew Boyd pitched Wednesday night against the Mets, and is on full rest, set up nicely for Game 1 of the Wild Card set. That, of course, was the place the team might initially have hoped to reserve for Cade Horton, but Horton cracked a rib somewhere between his final two regular-season starts and is likely out for the year. The news could be worse. Boyd has been wonderful for the Cubs this year, though of course, he's struggled more in the second half after earning an All-Star nod with a brilliant beginning of the campaign. He and Shota Imanaga each give the Padres some tough matchups, because San Diego doesn't hit lefties well. Each also figures to make a relatively short start, but that's ok. If the Cubs can get to the sixth inning with a lead, they'll feel very confident. That will be the task before both Boyd and Imanaga. If the series goes to a decisive third contest, the story might be different with Jameson Taillon, a righty who doesn't match up as nicely with the Padres and who hasn't been as impressive this season as his two southpaw teammates. Relievers (8) Brad Keller Andrew Kittredge Daniel Palencia Caleb Thielbar Drew Pomeranz Michael Soroka Taylor Rogers Colin Rea The closest thing to a controversial call here is that Colin Rea is penciled in as a reliever, rather than as the third starter. Taillon and Rea have been similarly effective this year, all told, and admittedly, this is at least partially a nod to Taillon's greater seniority and heftier contract. Still, Rea is also more compelling as a potential multi-inning reliever, because he has an arsenal that can be pared down and tweaked for maximum effect in the bullpen—and experience doing so, to boot. Rea pitched Friday; Taillon went Saturday. That means that Rea should be available for medium-length relief as soon as Game 1, whereas Taillon won't be ready to go (except in some truncated relief role) until Thursday, when Game 3 would be played. Rea is also the better complement to the pitch profiles of Boyd and Imanaga, so if Counsell ends up needing a bridge from one of his lefty starters to his higher-leverage relievers, Rea is a plausible one; Taillon is less so. Look for Counsell to seek out the left-leaning pockets of the Padres lineup and make aggressive use of both Caleb Thielbar and Drew Pomeranz, but perhaps just one of them in each of the first two games. That should keep any San Diego hitter from getting unduly good looks at them. Once you reach October, the risk of overexposing a reliever to a specific batter from the opposing team becomes real and worrisome. That's why having multiple trusted relievers for each role is so valuable. Brad Keller, Andrew Kittredge and Daniel Palencia have pitched in the same game nine times this year, and (in varying orders) that seems to be the trio Counsell most trusts to close out games. If he can get his starters through five and get some help from one of his lefties, though, he should be able to hold back one of the three (plus Michael Soroka) even if he's protecting a lead in one game. That's valuable. The names who don't appear here are, in a few cases, as compelling as the ones who do. This roster leaves off Aaron Civale, who last pitched for the team on Sept. 24 and could give them a lot of length—but whose stuff hasn't leapt forward since he moved to the bullpen for the first time, and who probably isn't fit for any kind of dangerous work. It excludes Ben Brown and Porter Hodge, as they wind down disappointing seasons. It excludes offseason additions-turned-injury cases Ryan Brasier and Eli Morgan, although if either of them has shown the team something compelling recently in rehab work or a Triple-A Iowa, they could always be tacked on as a 12th arm, squeezing out one of the hitters I project to make the team almost by default. Javier Assad also isn't listed. He made (more or less) a full start Sunday, and appears to be tracking toward making a start or providing bulk innings in a tandem effort should the team reach the NLDS. He's the second-most interesting name not projected to make the cut here whom the team might include, after all. The most interesting: Jaxon Wiggins. It's toweringly unlikely that the Cubs are planning to sneak Wiggins into the back end of their bullpen, with an eye toward him making his big-league debut in the postseason, If they feel they need an infusion of raw stuff, though, Wiggins is the most intriguing way they could do it. Those are all the names worth saying, in this context. Whether the team ultimately goes with 11 or 12 arms, most of these will be there. Counsell will remain cagey and creative, but however he prefers to get from Out No. 1 to Out No. 81, the Cubs have decent pitching depth for this time of year. They're in a good position. Whether that will matter is likely to come down to execution, now. View full article