Bertz

Rea reminds me of Tauchman last year. "$3M for a high end fourth outfielder is an easy yes! Sure he doesn't fit on the roster anymore but you can easily get a little something back in trade!" Then I had to clean the egg off my face as he got nontendered and had to take a pay cut to latch on with the White Sox. $6M for a solid 4th/5th starter is on its face a positive expected value contract. That said if the team is wanting to let Tucker walk and level up the pitching staff (which is certainly where the vibes point) you probably care more about that roster spot than the $2-3M in surplus value Rea's club option theoretically affords you. It's not a slam dunk, but I'm going to view the Rea decision as a tea leaf for whether the team is planning to put its resources primarily towards offense or pitching this winter.

My guess would be that one of Alcantara/Long is on next year's bench, and the other is not in the org next year because of trade. Put another way I expect the bench next year to be Amaya / Alcantara / Veteran RHH 1B (Paul Goldschmidt type) / Veteran Infielder (Jon Berti type) or Amaya / Long / Veteran RHH OF (Rob Refsnyder type) / Veteran Infielder (Jon Berti type)

It's funny you mention Garver because I feel like that's probably the ideal outcome for Ballesteros, right? 30ish games behind the plate (maybe pair him with one dedicated SP?), 100ish at DH, and maybe a dozen at 1B. That's insanely valuable as you look at constructing a roster. I do think it's probably a good time for the org to really ask how comfortable they are with Mo behind the plate. Because realistically if you completely give up on having him catch he's more or less Josh Naylor. Quality player but not someone who will make you rue the day he left. In fact if you shut the door on catching right now how much daylight is there really between Mo and Jonny Long? Not nearly enough to pass up on using Ballesteros to headline a Mackenzie Gore trade that's for damn sure.

I'd be pretty shocked by a lefty like Yaz. A righty like Refsnyder, Austin Hays, Ramon Laureano, etc. makes a ton of sense. These guys are ideally platoon bats but can probably float you to at least the deadline if the kids fail and they need to play every day. But as much as I do agree there's a little bit of a vibe that the team doesn't believe in Caissie, I'd be shocked if they bring in a LHH outfielder/1B/DH type unless it's Tucker. Even if Caissie's dealt you probably want platoon help for Mo. Long's a reverse splits type and I suspect Alcantara's bat, even against lefties, is an upgrade over PCA but not one you'd consider DH caliber.

I don't that's just a lot to do. There are currently four starting caliber hitters and two or three starting pitchers (depending on how Shota's situation shakes out) heading into free agency. None of those guys except Hoerner are way underpaid, so by no means is it going to be impossible to navigate. But it's going to be complicated, and adding "retain or replace the best pitcher in baseball" ratchets up the difficulty significantly. If Jed goes to the winter meetings with "6 Starting Pitcher WAR" on his shopping list this is a year where I'd prefer a guy who's going to give you 3 each of the next two years rather than 6 up front. Next year? Hell yeah please do another Tucker type trade. This year give me some bridge guys.

I'm happy to do a Tucker trade most years, but adding a walk year player of that stature on top of what we've already got slated for FA doesn't sit right with me. We'd be talking nearly 25 WAR walking out the door next winter.

I suspect the team will beg Mcguire to go back to Iowa, he'll say no, and then he'll be nontendered. That's by far the most likely outcome here. That said I could see three somewhat unlikely scenarios where he's kept around: 1. The team is ending Ballesteros' tenure behind the plate. This wouldn't be a shocking decision, but it would be shocking timing. That said he does have a pretty good track at the open DH spot, and maybe they don't want him splitting his attention ("don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing") 2. The team is trading Ballesteros. I suspect he's the least likely of the Iowa 4 to head out, but it is very likely Jed trades from that stash 3. The team is trading Amaya. Might actually be a savvy move? He's clearly made of glass, the measurable aspects of his defense are below average, and it's still reasonably likely that his bat isn't very good (despite spanning two years his offensive breakout is only ~250 PAs)

Jed's never going to turn into Dave Dombrowski, but you can't just assume he'll operate the exact same way every single offseason. This is pretty easily the best team he's had heading into an offseason before. On tops of that he has more money to play with than he has since the Swanson/Bellinger/Taillon winter and more young talent on hand than he's had ever. More $$ and fewer holes to fill allows you to operate differently. We saw this last winter with the Tucker trade and also the near signing of Tanner Scott. I'm not going to put a stake in the ground for a specific guy, but this is not going to be a winter where the team just adds a $15M starting pitcher and a bunch of $5M relievers. Team context matters a ton.

Also not to he one of those "every Japanese guy goes to the Dodgers" types but it is nice that neither the Dodgers or Yankees seem set to chase after 9 figure contract SPs this winter. Cubs were seemingly in on Yamamoto when he was gonna get ~$200M, and noped out when it skyrocketed from there. Unless the Mets are particularly enamored with Imai his contract probably stays more reasonable.

That's helpful, thanks! I've seen some role players come over and be arb eligible after their deal expired, so I knew it wasn't just age. The 6 years of service requirement explains the gap though.

He's a true free agent. Those numbers on baseball reference are probably automated based on service time, but any Japanese/Korean player who comes over and makes decent money gets a clause that says they're a FA when their contract is up.

Matt Shaw is a chode of a person, so I don't begrudge anyone for wanting to move on from him. But from a baseball standpoint this feels extremely short sighted. The *only* way this sequence works IMO is if Shaw is the lynchpin to a deal for some killer SP. If his trade value is really as middling as you make it out to be, I don't see how the juice is worth the squeeze. In making this swap you choose to get substantially older, substantially more expensive, and substantially worse on defense. So the offensive upgrade needs to be substantial. For whatever warts Shaw showed at the plate, and setting aside the improvements he made as the season wore on, net net he played at a 2 WAR/600 pace via Fangraphs. And BP's only slightly more bearish at 1.8. Bregman and Geno were both low to mid 3's depending on which flavor of WAR you prefer. Given the ages of everyone involved, how long before those vets fall behind Shaw? Maybe two years? So we're just going to give out a 9 figure contract for 2-3 extra wins over the next two years plus like 30% of the credit for whatever e.g. Edward Cabrera gives you? I don't see it.

A smattering of less heralded pitchers I like: Steven Matz - Last three years when relieving: 3.10 ERA/3.87 xFIP. Numbers are pretty similar the first time through the order as a SP at 3.21/3.63. As we prepped for the playoffs and talked about pockets of hitters it really hit home how much I'd love a lefty who can give you two+ innings on the regular Hunter Harvey - He pitched well in very limited time around an injury this year, though with a couple ticks off his fastball. Feels like a guy who wouldn't just settle for a 1 year deal, but will be looking for one to prove he's healthy and go seek $30M+ next winter. Cubs could offer him a contender with a great pitching dev and even a pretty viable path to saves Jose Alvarado - I actually don't want him if he hits free agency. There are some cracks starting to show in his profile, and combined with the steroid suspension I dont want to commit the several years to him I think he'd demand as a true FA. But Philly has a club option on him, similar to ours with Kittredge, and they likely want those dollars to put elsewhere. If we could trade some nominal value in what would essentially be a sign and trade I'd be ecstatic Chris Paddack - When Paddack gives up on being a SP and shifts to relief I think he will take off quickly. Given A) where we are on the win curve and B) the existence of Brown/Wicks/Assad we're probably not the team to give him the shot? But I'd love to get him in the org and bring him to ST

There's going to be a lockout for sure, everyone's already desensitized to the idea so it won't serve as a deadline with any real teeth. That said I am not too worried about losing games. All the national TV deals are lined up to expire in '27, and the league wants to get the ball rolling on expansion as well. Add in that the players generally seem happy with how the last CBA went and it's clear that this go around it's the owners who are coming to the table in a position of need. The idea of them doubling down and going on the offensive for a salary cap is saber rattling IMO. I don't see how there's anyone beyond maybe a few owners with one foot out the door like Reinsdorf or Arte Moreno who will actually be willing to do anything drastic.

I don’t think it's a huge worry. Nico aside everyone slated to hit FA next winter is making within a stone's throw of market rates anyway. So yeah ~40% of the roster is turning over, but there's going to be $120M+ plus to spend on backfills. And the team has a talented young nucleus to act as a cheap spine for the roster. If anything there's some opportunity to raise the ceiling of the team. Turn five $20M a year players into three $30M a year players and two kids making the league minimum.

After faceplanting at Tennessee he seems to have fallen a little behind that pace. Though probably not a ton. I'd guess, even assuming Rojas has another big year next year, that going into 2026 2B has someone ahead of him on the depth chart. But I'd expect that person to be leapfroggable. Whether that is one of the more advanced but less talented kids (Triantos or Ramirez) or via positional flexibility (a Willi Castro or Gavin Lux type).

Probably worth noting it, along with his velo, dropped more after his IL stint. 2024 Velo - 91.7 2024 Arm Angle - 39.6 2025 pre-IL velo - 91.2 2025 pre-IL arm angle - 36.9 2025 post-IL velo - 90.7 2025 post-IL arm angle - 35.3 Both numbers were already on the move before his IL stint (though his velo was slight enough you could wonder about the weather), but you do have to wonder if the hamstring borked his mechanics a bit and an offseason reset is a viable opportunity to clean them up.

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes No stars but it's an almost preposterously deep FA class for RHH bats.

IIRC the reporting is that he didn't even let the Giants and Jays counter the Dodgers contract, and the Jays at least fully intended too. Plus there was the whole Bachelor style rounds of eliminations before $$$ even got discussed.

Geno Suarez has largely been a dud as a Mariner. It would be really cool if this is the start of one of his patented Alfonso Soriano style hot streaks.

That's much better than I expected to read. Fun stuff. Still feels behind the 8 ball with his age but if there's a position where you can handwave that away it's catcher.