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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Okay it's a slow workday and I got curious about this, I think this bears out. I did some math and the distribution of HR/FB rates and velo looks fairly bell-curvey. I grabbed every pitcher season with more than 50 IP going back to 2010. I threw out the guys who didn't throw a four seam fastball. And then I bucketed every pitcher into bands and calculated the average HR/FB rate <85 MPH - 10.7% 85-89 MPH - 11.7% 90-93 MPH - 11.9% 93-95 MPH - 11.5% 95-98 MPH - 11.2% 98-100 MPH - 10.0% 100+ MPH - 9.6% It was quick and dirty analysis, for instance I didn't weight by IP, but it's pretty clear that broad strokes this is a thing.
  2. Bertz
    Palencia might be able to escape the regression. I believe there's been some research that confirms those really top end velo guys can maintain an artificially low HR/FB. Otherwise though yeah the regression monster is coming at some point. We're probably due another 2-3 series like the Seattle one.
  3. Bertz
    So much of this is interconnected that it's going to be fascinating to watch. - As you touched on Caissie or Alcantara feels inevitable, while both feels exceedingly unlikely - Similarly, dealing Franklin makes sense currently but quickly becomes less desirable in a world where you've already dealt Alcantara - How confident the team is in retaining Tucker also feels like a factor in who stays and who goes. I won't say keeping Caissie means Tucker's gone, but it's certainly a tea leaf I'd read in that direction - If the team doesn't believe in Ballesteros' glove behind the dish, him and Long feels like another either/or situation. Though I think there's a little less urgency than with Caissie/Alcantara I think too I'd expect to lose one or two of the pitchers who've popped in the last 6 weeks. Much in the same way that Ty Johnson was the guy in last year's Paredes deal that was barely on our radar and now looks like he was secretly the centerpiece. I think it's inevitable that we deal away like a Tyler Schlaffer and then find out in a post trade scouting report "Oh BTW he throws 96 now".
  4. Bertz
    We know the team likes to have guys work themselves into and successfully out of a slump before promoting them. If this marks the start of a new heater from Long, I wonder if we don't finally see him up in the big leagues soon. We are after all another month into Turner not producing.
  5. Bertz
    I'm not going to write it up as a full rumor since it's written as if Mooney is speculating as opposed to reporting, but this in the Athletic this AM perked my ears up I really like Edward Cabrera, and I think the Marlins are a really good fit as a trade partner on the receiving end.
  6. Bertz
    Honestly as embarrassing as it was that they were all bunched up it's the cost of doing business to having a team that runs as much as this one as successfully as they do. I was watching a Mets game about a week ago and I was appalled at how station to station it was for the non-Lindors of that team. I felt like Jon Hamm getting pulled out of The Bubble on 30 Rock. "What do you mean Soto's only on second? And where's my complimentary throwing error from the right fielder?"
  7. Bertz
    I like this thing where Alcantara decided to just stop striking out
  8. Bertz
    Rental hitters, even impact ones, simply don't cost much in prospects. Think about what we got for Rizzo/KB/Baez, or what we gave up for Candelario. You can get impact talent a million miles from MLB or some safe/boring talent a lot closer. But talent and proximity are mutually exclusive. You should be thinking about deals headlined by someone like Will Sanders or Pedro Ramirez or Ronny Cruz. There is more of a premium with pitchers at the deadline, but I'd still be a bit surprised if it rises to the level where a pure rental costs a Caissie or Alcantara unless the Padres become sellers. One of our top tier guys likely requires impact talent, additional team control, or a SP/RP package.
  9. Bertz
    I think all three of their pitchers are good enough where you shouldn't be shocked if they have a great night, though clearly not good enough where it's the expectation. If their offense wasn't so anemic I'd be low key worried about this series. As is though I'm only worried for always on "baseball is dumb" reasons.
  10. Bertz
    *obnoxious throat clearing*
  11. Bertz
    Cleveland is horrifically bad on offense against LHP. I don't know what the wind is supposed to do this week but assuming it's not howling out this should be a series where the pitching staff can lick its wounds a bit.
  12. Bertz
    Matt Shaw's played at a 1.9 WAR/600 pace since he was recalled, and his xwOBA indicates he's probably even been BABIPed a little during that time. Like I wouldn't throw a tantrum if we traded for Geno Suarez but it's not the highest priority spot on the roster to address. A less terrible version of Brujan (or ideally an outright good one like Willi Castro) that can get a LHH bat into the lineup and spell Shaw vs. especially tough righties is probably plenty.
  13. Bertz
    I'll say if Shaw keeps playing at roughly the level he has since getting back from Iowa, I don't have a lot of appetite for replacing him. We saw last year with both PCA and Amaya that the breakout can occur very quickly with talented rookies. And unlike those two guys in the first half of last year, Shaw right now is just sorta below average. He's not some worst in the league type bat acting as an albatross around the lineup's neck. One exception would be Willi Castro, a guy I've been pining for since like October. His ability to play everywhere would mean we could dial back Shaw's playing time without outright blocking him. I'm really into Taylor Ward's bat, though I don't love how little 1B he's played the last few years. I don't need a gold Glover but could the Angels slide him over there a few times a week for the next month?
  14. Bertz
    The Chicago Cubs are second in MLB in runs scored per game and second in total WAR from their position players, and yet according to Patrick Mooney at The Athletic the plan is still to add offensive help prior to this year's trade deadline. Two main reasons are cited for the team's search for a bat. First is underperformance. The lack of offensive production from Matt Shaw and Justin Turner provides an opportunity to upgrade the team and push additional chips in on upgrading a likely playoff team. The second is vintage Hoyer: an attempt to limit downside risk. Knowing that the deadline is the last chance to add help, the front office doesn't want to leave itself vulnerable to something like an injury. Mooney lists Taylor Ward, Ryan McMahon, and Eugenio Suarez as "names to monitor", though it's unclear if there is traction with any of those players or if they are simply the type of hitter the team is likely to explore. View full rumor
  15. Bertz
    More information about "The Athletic: Cubs Will Add A Hitter Before The Trade Deadline"
    The Chicago Cubs are second in MLB in runs scored per game and second in total WAR from their position players, and yet according to Patrick Mooney at The Athletic the plan is still to add offensive help prior to this year's trade deadline. Two main reasons are cited for the team's search for a bat. First is underperformance. The lack of offensive production from Matt Shaw and Justin Turner provides an opportunity to upgrade the team and push additional chips in on upgrading a likely playoff team. The second is vintage Hoyer: an attempt to limit downside risk. Knowing that the deadline is the last chance to add help, the front office doesn't want to leave itself vulnerable to something like an injury. Mooney lists Taylor Ward, Ryan McMahon, and Eugenio Suarez as "names to monitor", though it's unclear if there is traction with any of those players or if they are simply the type of hitter the team is likely to explore.
  16. Bertz
  17. Bertz
    Take Wood at 17 and Russell at 56, get arguably the two best RH fastballs in the draft and call it a day IMO
  18. Bertz
    Hayes is also a good reminder that 7 years is a long time and we don't need to be in a huge rush to extend everybody
  19. Bertz
    Fun! I believe this game is in front of Statcast so we should be able to get some details on Wiggins' fastball. A little surprised at Caissie as opposed to Rojas. I had kind of assumed Rojas was a lock and also that the reason he is still at SB was because they didn't want to promote him until after this.
  20. Bertz
    Brandon Woodruff's velo is down 4 MPH, he looks pretty cooked. That said to the broader point the Brewers pitching factory will keep churning and keep them in the mix. But if the Cubs win the 90+ games they are currently on track for it shouldn't matter.
  21. Bertz
    Every opponent through the end of the month except for the Yankees and Red Sox is bad against LHP. He'll if you want to look past the trade deadline Baltimore and Cincy suck against them too.
  22. Bertz
  23. Bertz
    Man this place would be having a 5 alarm meltdown if we lost the game the Brewers just did. - Lost to a bad team - Missed an opportunity for a sweep - Missed an opportunity to pick up ground on 1st place - Bullpen gave up runs in four straight innings (two being zombie runners wouldn't matter) - A former Brewer had the big hit - 2 for 12 with runners in scoring position
  24. Bertz
    I wouldn't hate him coming up next turn through the rotation. Whether that's just a spot start or stealing Horton's spot for a month while he gets a breather I'd be fine either way.
  25. Bertz
    Mitch Keller is not my favorite arm. But if you offered me the choice between taking a Keller/Bednar deal now or waiting in hope someone significantly better comes available over the next month, I'd lock in a deal with the Pirates.
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