Bertz

The Cubs currently have exactly 1 player in their outfield/1B/DH mix who you can confidently expect to hit left handed pitching.

A couple things on Imai that have been rolling around in my head - The Imai rumor mill seems to be following the same trajectory as the Shota Imanaga one from two years ago. Whenever he's written about broadly it's profuse with praise, whenever a specific team is talked about it's like "eh we're not huge fans" or "eh we don't have the cash" - Jeff Passan said that Imai might sign at the winter meetings, but generally with these high profile imports they sign a few days before their posting window closes. I mentioned a few days ago that would suck because the FA SP market is expected to pop off over the next week. So I like seeing Levine mention trades because it does feel like if you're Jed timing probably dictates you need to sign a non Imai SP next week or juggle him against trade alternatives as we approach the new year - Ken Rosenthal's notes article this morning, primarily about Teo Hernandez and Imai, was co-written with Patrick Mooney. This made me raise an eyebrow especially after the Cubs were barely talked about - One of the Athletic podcasts after the GM meetings stuck with me. They were talking about how different the vibes were and made a comment like "and hell Jed's actually talking to Scott Boras this year". Boras' roster this winter is mostly bats, with Cease, Gallen, and Imai as the main exceptions Nothing groundbreaking, just stuff that's catching my eye.

Given that his contract is fairly underwater, those deferrals actually probably make the financials easy. Dodgets hold onto those deferred dollars, other team takes on Teo's "real" money and gives up something of a little value. Assad for Teo + that money kicked in sounds pretty reasonable for both sides?

I wouldn't think so. Their rotation is pretty full. They'd probably love a good swing arm or someone they could stash at AAA, but Jamo doesn't feel like a good fit for their roster right now.

Ken Rosenthal notes this AM that while the Dodgers are not full on shopping Teo, they're talking about him with teams. He's one of the better lefty mashing power bats in the league right now, and his contract is very much mid sized. The outfield defense is a disaster and he provides no coverage at 1B, but offensively he's a fairly perfect fit.

I think a good expectation for Caissie (or Mo) that toes the line between optimistic and realistic is something like Michael Busch's rookie year. Michael Busch put up a roughly 120 wRC+ as a rookie, and that game with the benefit of significant platoon support. Busch, like Caissie, took two go arounds at AAA. Busch, like Caissie, improved significantly his second go around. Busch, like Caissie, very much felt like he had mastered the level when he finally got his cup of coffee at the MLB level. Unlike Caissie, Busch was able to get his K rate under 20% in his second go around, which led to him being a tier better as a hitter at AAA. That said I think that is balanced, hopefully more than balanced, by being three years older at the same career step. But Caissie just being 1 for 1 a Kyle Tucker replacement is probably something like a 95th percentile outcome. It's not impossible but if we're already seeding expectations there then this highly petulant fanbase is going to eat him alive. Let's not do that.

via Sharma this AM So I'm presuming they didn't want to add that 7th year

I actually like this idea a lot. Eric Longenhagen's scouting report makes it sound like he's a hell of a defender, strong baserunner, and has good raw power. So even if the hit tool takes a major beating on the trip across the pacific that's a guy that can help you win in a lot of different ways. I'd be terrified to hand him a starting job, but to nip at Matt Shaw's heels and provide some insurance if a middle infielder gets hurt? Hell yeah. I do think ideally a Song signing would come with a trade, as there are only so many at bats to go around. Right now on the position player side we are looking at: - The 8 returning everyday hitters from last year - Amaya as the backup C - A TBD veteran right handed bat (there has not been a lot of clarity on what they're looking for beyond handedness) - Three of the Caissie/Ballesteros/Alcantara/Long quartet Song would likely take one of those three slots earmarked for the kids. That's not necessarily a problem, his skillset doesn't overlap any of there's all that much. But I don’t like the idea of two of the kids having to be banished to Iowa at all times. So if e.g. Caissie gets dealt for a SP and the teams adds Song, great! If the team adds Song and now Caissie's got to continue away toiling at Iowa despite OPSing .950 I'm going to scream.

I like Ponce. Gives off the strongest Matt Boyd vibes of anyone in this year's FA class. That said Shota taking the QO killed my interest in him. With two open rotation spots you can speculate like this, not with just one.

The team desperately needed some depth at SS so not a shocker

Yeah and the idea of planning to give both Caissie and Mo siginficant runway also lends itself away from the likelihood of a trade. The timing on Imai makes makes me nervous on the SP front. Because I could see a situation where he's now plan A and King is plan B. But if Imai's not signing until closer to end of month and all the domestic guys are expected to start coming off the board quickly over the next week and a haIf coinciding with the Winter Meetings that feels like a dangerous game of musical chairs.

Another thing on this front that made me raise an eyebrow. The Cubs don't get mentioned a single time in this article from Passan Jed has had plenty of instances of being super stealthy on the trade front, but man all the smoke is that he's planning to do the heavy lifting via FA this winter.

*clears throat in the direction of Ben Brown*

Not going to get worked up over relievers, but not having to give Williams a fourth year feels like it should have been a go.

Except for the 2020/2021 offseason right before the selloff, Jed has added at one player every offseason who had been worth 3+ WAR the year before: '21/'22 - Stroman at 3.5 WAR '22/'23 - Swanson at 6.6 WAR '23/'24 - Bellinger at 4.4 WAR '24/'25 - Tucker at 4.2 WAR I'll be honest I don't expect that explicit streak to continue this winter, there are only so many 3+ WAR guys who feel likr a decent fit on this roster. But for as conservative as he's been Jed has made at least one splashy move every winter. Smart money IMO is for two of the moves to be in line with what you've got above and a third that's well north of that level. So like Gallen, Refsnyder, and Devin Williams. Or Gallen, Finnegan, and Okamoto. Or Finnegan, Refsnyder, and Imai.

I listened to Ken Rosenthal's podcast this AM. Nothing Cubs specific but he did talk a lot about the market broadly: - The SP free agent market is going to move at a good clip over the next two weeks. It'll likely be picked over by the time the winter meetings are over - Notable exception to the above is Imai. Because of the logistics specific to him and his posting window, he's not going to sign until closer to Christmas - Orioles, Braves, and Yankees were teams mentioned in the high end SP market. Giants and Red Sox (post Gray) are likely going to hang out more mid-market. Cubs and Mets didn't really get brought up here, I assume because both have been very transparent they're playing in these waters so it's not news? - Trades are likely going to be back burnered until free agency has progressed more - Expect a bunch of smoke around Tarik Skubal, Freddie Peralta, and Joe Ryan but for them to not ultimately go anywhere. The other frequent names, the Edward Cabreras of the world, are more likely to actually be moved

Finnegan is kind of the anti Helsley. Pretty mid career and an incredible cup of coffee with the Tigers. I'm highly skeptical that >50% splitters is a thing you can successfully do permanently. So I think my interest would hinge on whether he takes 1 year to sign or 2. MLBTR has him at 2 but I suspect he's borderline.

The poor 1H performance of the 2024 pen is a point in favor of bullpen nihilism, not against. Alzolay and Merryweather were certified monsters in 2023, and Neris' 2023 ERA overstated his level of impact but he still projected for for a 3.90 ERA coming into the season. The Cubs had three high quality late inning options coming into the season, two had their arms explode and the 3rd lost the strikezone. It sucks but I don't think it teaches you anything except that attrition is a horsefeathers.

I think several things are true: - The Cubs are very good at finding undervalued relievers - Because of the volatility, the bullpen is probably the least efficient place to put a marginal dollar on a baseball team - Acquiring relievers isn't totally random. More resources tends to improve reliability and stuff, even if not by as much as you'd expect - The Cubs *full season* numbers have not been especially impressive for any bullpen in the Jed era. In '21/'22 that was because of trade deadline selloffs, since then it's been because the unit has struggled early each year - The bullpen coming into the winter was practically empty. Palencia, Hodge (who ideally starts next season at Iowa), several quality long relief options, and a couple of Iowa lottery tickets - Because the Cubs' roster is already fairly complete, there's not a lot of upgrade opportunities apart from the bullpen All told the Cubs should spend significantly more on the bullpen than they have historically. They need both depth and impact talent. At the same time we don't need to live and die with every signing. The margins between a Ryan Helsley and a Pete Fairbanks and a Brad Keller are nominal. Think in terms of tiers not specific names.

Here's anotber list of names. From the last 10 years guys who pitched at least 100 IP in a season with an ERA north of 5 and an xFIP south of 4. 11 guys in total, they saw their ERAs drop by 1.43 runs on average YoY. The way to read the numbers below is: ERA in year listed / xFIP in year listed / ERA the following year Putting this in a quote so it doesn't take up as much room I also want to call out three more names. These guys just barely missed my criteria, but each one became a star. 2016 Robbie Ray - 4.90/3.45/2.89 2016 Aaron Nola - 4.78/3.08/3.54 2019 Kevin Gausman - 5.72/4.05/3.62 It's not a slam dunk Brown becomes an impact arm, he could be Chris Paddack or Tyler Duffey or Michael Pineda (not listed above but a 'just missed' who didn't improve). But throwing the baby out with the bathwater because of some hard contact and BABIP has an opportunity to spectacularly blow up in your face.

Jansen is one of the very few relievers who I feel comfortable saying has no chance of coming here. No judgment, I'm rooting for him, but he's chasing milestones and will want assurances that he gets all save opportunities. That's not how Craig rolls, especially for a guy who's fairly shakey at this point.

I would guess it wasn't the money it was the opt out after 1. Despite all the conspiracy theories about the CBA the team doesn't want the entire roster to turn over next offseason. These things tend to come in waves, so I wouldn't be surprised if a handful of the other highly comparable guys (Keller, Fairbanks, Weaver) sign in the next day or two. We know Jed's working in this tier this winter.

Well there you have it I guess, case closed

A collection of pitchers that Ben Brown outpitched last year as measured by both xFIP (Fangraphs) and DRA (Baseball Prospectus): Matt Boyd Cade Horton Dylan Cease Edward Cabrera Freddy Peralta Kevin Gausman Carlos Rodon Nick Pivetta Mackenzie Gore Ranger Suarez Brown had the peripherals of a guy who could legitimately start game 1 of a playoff series. He also had the best peripherals of any SP on our team. Now obviously peripherals ignore batted ball data, and that's a huge part of the story with Brown. But as we all know this stuff is really fickle. In 2025 we can't just point at BABIP and say "luck!" but it is mostly luck. Some light math says the YoY correlation on barrel rate is .45 and on hard hit rate is .55. That's not inconsequential but it's also a far far cry from a permanent death sentence. For instance, among pitchers who pitched 100+ innings in '24 and '25, Carlos Rodon had the worst barrel rate in the league in 2024. In 2025 he was 93rd. You need several hundred innings before you can say a pitcher's batted ball outcomes, good or bad, are meaningfully predictive. I also don't buy the two pitch thing as some sort of crippling problem either. Setting aside that there's plenty of pitchers that do great with two pitches, it doesn't track with how Brown has primarily struggled. A limited repertoire is usually associated with heightened struggles deeper in games. Essentially the times through the order penalty becomes magnified because the pitcher lacks a variety of ways to get outs. That's why these guys get funneled into relief. However Brown's biggest struggles were early in games. Brown had an ERA of 9.00 (!!!) in the first inning, his highest of any inning. He also had his worst peripherals (an xFIP of 4.38). That should have absolutely nothing to do with only having two pitches. Brown's 3rd time through the order ERA is also pretty inflated (13.19...even in a small sample woof!), but I think it should be noted his peripherals were still strong. But while I'm clearly quite bullish on him with a little more sample I would buy Brown's going to be limited to being a 5 and dive guy due to his lack of repertoire. Now I don't say all this to imply we should go into next year with Brown in the rotation. His struggles seem pretty flukey, but you can't just assume it'll all work out immediately with the clean slate of a new season. But I do think it's reasonably likely that in the near future he's a SP that we actively want starting games. So I do think he should be near the front of the line among the depth SPs, whether that's in the bullpen as the long guy (my preference) or at Iowa as the first SP on the speed dial.

This is largely the same fanbase that flatly refused to acknowledge how the wind blowing in at Wrigley impacts offense, so this behavior tracks.