Bertz

Lol so tell me, are guys like Brady and Montana or whatever other QB with a winning record just lucky? Getting by on the strength of their teams and coaches? We watched Cutler for years miss on down field passes when he just needed 5 yards to keep a drive alive at the end of the game. Stafford’s win numbers against good teams are atrocious. If there were an easy to navigate stat site like FG for football we could probably see how many times Stafford was within a TD with 5 minutes or so to go and still lost. The Lions have had decent enough teams and head coaches where Stafford’s record is largely on him. This isn’t baseball, where we’re debating the validity/weight of performance in clutch situations. In the NBA and for QBs in the NFL there are guys who consistently get the job done at the end of the game when it matters and those who don’t. It’s all a spectrum, so if the eye roll is for me viewing things in binary terms then maybe ok, but Stafford is at one end of that spectrum for me. We’ll see what Cousins can do with this talent but he’s going to have to prove he can go from a career sub-.500 QB to one who wins this division. I think you're wish casting here. Stafford's perfectly fine in the clutch https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/ranking-matthew-stafford-s-eight-fourth-quarter-comebacks-in-2016-020117 And I'd bet Cousins would do similarly given the same situations. I'd guess that, much like in baseball, clutch in football is just talent meeting opportunity with a splash of luck.

I don't expect big moves on the pitching side. I think they bring back Cole, and otherwise focus on depth. The main goal basically being not caught with their pants down again like they did this summer. Basically I'm expecting something like this - Exercise Cole's option - Sign Bryce - Trade Happ to someone who is willing to both eat Chatwood's salary, and give us a back an Alzolay-esque fun young starter who we can stash at Iowa The team can't really move on from Lester or Darvish, and they probably shouldn't move on from Q, so it becomes about having depth and options. If the rotation had had a strong year, I think Montgomery would have been moved this winter, but instead he comes into the year ticketed as the Wilson replacement, but also sticks around for additional starter depth. Smyly is the long guy and designated 6th starter. And then Alzolay plus the guy who comes back in the Happ trade hang out in Iowa. That basically gives us 9 guys we're comfortable having start, probably overkill but after this year probably necessary to truly have peace of mind.

If Trubisky is for real, and I believe in him, this team is loaded. Defense was above average before Roquan and Mack, and should be comfortably Top 10 now. Skill players are great if Robinson is back to at least his '16 form. And the O-line is higher variance than I'd like but is probably at least average.

And the Cubs should have run away with it while the opposite when the Cubs had the easy stretch and the Cardinals and Brewers had the tougher stretches. Baseball is baseball like that; what's more likely is the Cardinals' pace slows down despite them playing "easier" teams. It can't be overstated how they essentially have to keep winning like maniacs AND the Cubs have to really play flat or worse for the division to really be an issue. Very much this. The Cubs have 29 games left, if they go 14-15, the Cards need to go 18-10 (104 win pace) and/or the Brewers need to go 18-9 (108 win pace) to match. Crazy things can happen in one month of baseball (I think the Rockies in '07 won like 22/25 or something to end the year) but at this point the Cubs not winning the division would only happen because the Cubs played like crap.

Wilson's good, but I think it's fair to give him side-eye. I feel like he's the most likely of our good relievers to have a meltdown.

Len just said Tommy "bit the hand that once fed him." That is absolutely a wink wink nudge nudge seal joke and no one will convince me otherwise.

If he misses 5 years can the insurance payout pay for Harper? I know you're joking, but I believe it sort of can. My understanding is that insurance offsets also apply to the CBT (at least in part). Specifically I think it has come up with Fielder and Wright.

I LOVE Sam Miller. I can't decide if he's the most fun of the analytical writers, or the most analytical of the fun writers, but whatever he is he's awesome.

I literally did a double take and rewound it. That was so normal looking.

Earlier than I was expecting to make this post today, but looks like all three games today are pretty settled. The Cubs have 33 games left. If they go 17-16 in those games, they end up with 93 wins. To match that. the Cards need to go 20-11 (104 win pace) and/or the Brewers need to go 20-10 (108 win pace). The next two weeks look really rough, but if they aren't disastrous then the division race looks about over.

That's a quality bullpen dance Oh and the dong that caused it too

We're getting real close to the point where I care more about the Dodgers collapse than anything the Cards or Brewers do.

Its not so much that, its that the Cubs will take a horsefeathers combined with the Cards surge. My only concern is this long stretch without a day off will have a toll. We just need the Cardinals to cool off by then Yeah. I'm a bit worried about the rest of this 23 game stretch. The Mets suck. but it looks like we're getting both deGrom and Thor, and then on the road for Braves/Phillies/Brewers/Nats. I think we're going to give back a few games during this stretch, so it would be really nice to be up 4+ going into Monday. That being said, the Cubs have 35 games left. If they go 18-17 they'll end up with 92 wins. The Cards would need to go 20-13 (98 win pace) and/or the Brewers would need to go 20-12 (101 win pace) to match that.

That was nearly as painful to watch as a Chatwood outing

Taillon is going tomorrow and Archer on Sunday. If the Brewers don't come through tonight there's some pretty real sweep potential here.

Samesies

Going to the game today, safe to assume there will be a ton of player's weekend merch? Because I will buy the hell out of an Edwards or Javy shirt

I didn't realize Short was a plus defender. If that's true he's interesting, potentially a Zack Cozart type. Cozart was/is more of a contact guy, but Short could take a different route to a similar OBP/SLG.

I think the Phillies are the top team I'd want to face in round one. They'd have burned Nola in the WC game, and they're just not that scary when he's not on the mound. The Braves lineup absolutely wrecks lefties, so they're probably a bad matchup for us even though they're not particularly scary in a vacuum. Other than that everyone besides the Dodgers is good enough that they could be a problem but not so good to be intimidating. A healthy Nats team would be scary, but they're done. They've dug themselves too big of a hole.

Magic Number down to http://www2.pictures.gi.zimbio.com/Carlos+Zambrano+Mark+Carlson+Pittsburgh+Pirates+132UFGcSONWl.jpg Also guaranteed we'll be in first place going into our 24 in a row stretch

Sounds like the plan is for Yu to have rehab starts on the 19th, 24th, and 29th, which would bring him back around Labor Day for the Brewers series.

Chacin has very big righty/lefty splits. So you want to stack the lineup with lefties, but I hate having Tommy at 3rd.

Glad we're running out basically our worst infield defense to match the new look Brewers.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/08/14/bears-roquan-smith-reached-a-compromise-on-issue-of-voided-guarantees/ Looks like Roquan's money can only be voided if he's a Vontaze Burfict level sociopath on the field, which seems fair. Glad it was the Bears that caved, they were in the wrong.

This is what I'm expecting. I think we sign Bryce or Manny, deal one of those three (likely Happ if Harper. Russell if Machado) for pitching, and Bote takes Seal Boy's roster spot, but gets a lot more playing time because he can actually field a position.