Bertz

How long do we think before Carico moves up to SB? Bat's clearly ready, honestly was probably ready from draft day. But he's missed a lot of time so probably not the worst thing to just let him get some consistent successful ABs? Especially since he's slowly working his way back behind the plate. I also sort of wonder if the Cubs think their catching instructors are better at Myrtle than South Bend? Feels like that would explain a few minor mysteries like Carico now and Ayers never getting promoted last year.

Coppola and Flanagan keep pitching well pls. We need pitchers to break through generally but especially lefties.

I would strongly consider this the sign that it's time to lengthen Brown back out. But the bullpen's finally back in a good spot, and Thielbar/Harvey don't sound super far out on top of that. We desperately needed Brown doing what he was doing up to this point, but we can probably shift back to a vanilla bullpen from here. And Brown's proven his bullpen chops so hopefully in ~August he can shift right back to the job he's got currently.

I think it's 4-6 weeks of recovery, but I assume another few weeks after that to build back up. I'd assume All Star Break. This sucks.

I think with the number of high profile teams that have flopped this season will help the market this summer. Part of the problem last TDL is that every bad team except the Dbacks and Twins was a team that had been bad for a while and had little to offer. Some will right the ship but having some combo of the Phillies/Mets/Bosox/Jays with rosters that have not yet been picked over should make it less of a seller's market At the same time I think it's really hard to deal anyone with 1.5 years of control. How do you value a Gore or an Alcantara or a healthy Joe Ryan when there's a small chance that next season is impacted by the CBA fight? How do you align on the odds that there's a shortened or even fully banged season? I assume it's less of an issue for someone with 2.5+ but probably still somewhat relevant. I could see a lot of directions. I could see some tepid rental like a Robbie Ray I could see a balls out long term move like a Hunter Brown. I'd doubt they do a big rental like Freddy Peralta? But I'm going to largely attempt to go into this deadline with specific expectations.

The bullpen is not in bad shape today per se, but it's not in great shape. Today would be a really good day to just boatrace the Reds and let Corbin Martin eat two innings. Luckily Brady Singer sucks so the conditions are ripe.

During this current 7 game winning streak: Cubs Batters - 38 BBs and 42 Ks Cubs Pitchers - 17 BBs and 66 Ks

What a stupid June 2025 Brewers ass win

I'd actually lean towards Alcantara being different than the guys we have on hand as being a plus in the FO's mind rather than a minus. One of the biggest differences between the Hoyer Cubs and the Theo Cubs is the lineup diversity. I'd also note that defense seems to win out vs. contact (looking at you, Dansby). That suspect that matters more Re: Alcantara vs. Shaw than either vs. Pedro though. As a switch hitting infielder he feels like he's a really good compliment to the current roster and wins any sort of fit debate almost by default.

Abbott pitched that game last May where the Cubs were hitting 100+ MPH lasers all over the field and got jack to show for it. That and the game in Toronto against Scherzer were the biggest tough luck losses of the year.

I suspect Pedro's bat and glove would be adequate in LF but not something you'd actively want out there. So as a super-sub that's great, he would compliment Shaw and especially Alcantara really well. And he'd also be good insurance in case one flat out fails. But I don't think he can be plan A. At least not in the next year or so.

Reds are total frauds. Elly/Greene/Burns is as good of a trio as you'll find on any roster in the league, but the depth is just not there at all. Abbott's better than this, though not especially scary. He was very much a beneficiary of good fortune last year. He's probably a Taillon/Rea tier pitcher. Probably due for a good game but also we should touch him up.

In the short term I think Alcantara has to be parked at Iowa. There's just not playing time for him unless/until there’s an injury or Shaw goes into a tailspin. It's also worth noting that he appears to still be developing, as the season progresses he is slowly clawing back the contact rate he sacrificed to juice his launch angle. Fingers crossed that trend continues. Medium-long term I think Alcantara fits into the puzzle with the glut of infielders, and I'm hoping they find a way to keep him. This winter you have Happ, Suzuki, and Kelly all hitting free agency. So that's two full time outfield spots, plus whatever DH time is freed up by Mo presumably getting more time behind the plate. You can't expect to hand all of that time off to the kids, but you can probably do 2/3s? I think broadly there's a choice between Shaw and Alcantara for a full time OF spot, and then there's a choice between Shaw and Pedro Ramirez for the supersub role Shaw's currently in. I'd probably go Alcantara/Ramirez, though there's a lot of time for that to change. But broadly I envision something like this: Out: Happ, Kelly, Conforto, Shaw (trade) In: Suzuki (extended), Alcantara, Ramirez, another veteran LHH OFer Again it's too early to get hung up on specifics but I really like the range of skills adding Alcantara and Ramirez to the roster brings, and at the same time I suspect Shaw would bring back a pitching haul.

106 win pace by the way

Setting aside that I think the talk around CBA round is just a lot of hot air, damn near every FA SP of note signed before the shutdown last go around. Stroman was the last impact guy standing and we got him right at the wire.

This is a really good writeup, and as certain pubs resort more and more to hyperbole I appreciate the nuanced takes grounded in reality, both good and bad I think this gets to the heart of it There are a number of guys who are arrow up in April but who have probably not done enough long enough to warrant a full grade change. It's easy to see how heading into the draft this could already be back to being an average to above average system. Also this farm is screaming for another 2022 style draft. Four picks in the top 100 and at least three of them should be pitchers IMO.

I have no idea what the Reds were thinking not lining up Burns to pitch in this series.

The nice thing about something like a barrel is it's a process stat. Generally dongs are ~half of barrels. So Kevin should probably be closer to 8 than 12, and I'd guess that gap is the silly AAA environment. But even at 8 we're talking a 39 homer pace. Like the contact numbers are definitely a problem, full stop. But a Christopher Morel type bat from a legitimate CF is an impact player. Or put another way I don't see any reason to think Alcantara can't be what Adolis Garcia was in his prime. There's definitely a fine line between patience and passitivity, and at the top of the ladder swinging 37% of the time like Mathis leans towards the latter. But also it's A ball and guys tend to not miss close, so if you have a good eye you probably should be well below an acceptable MLB rate. Like you're not going to lose money betting against every RHH 1B prospect, but complaining about what Mathis is doing at the plate right now feels kind of

Statcast minor league search has barrels. Kevin Alcantara is at 16, which is 3rd at the AAA level and would be tied for 11th at the big league level. His barrel rate of 25% is also 3rd in MiLB and would also be 3rd in the majors. He's always hit the piss out of the ball, and always had contact issues. This year he's basically traded Dansby Swanson levels of swing and miss with a too high groundball rate for Christopher Morel levels of swing and miss with a great groundball rate. I think it's probably a good trade, and his contact numbers are slowly trending back up so I wouldn't slam the door on the possibility of us having our cake and eating it too.

He's got an above average contact rate and a 16% walk rate so this is a pretty clear case of being in a lot of deep counts. 4.2 pitches per plate appearance.

Among the many impressive things he's doing, Cole Mathis running a ~25% groundball rate is probably the craziest.

59.5 homer pace by the way

105 win pace by the way

I wonder if we get word on Thielbar soon. It sounded like when they IL'd him they were hoping for something close to a minimum lenth stay, which would have him back next weekend.

Situation worth monitoring: Ronald Acuna left tonight's Braves game with a hamstring injury and we play Atlanta in Atlanta in a week and a half