Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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I'm not especially high on Assad. The FIP beater stuff doesn't have a lot of the associated contact management numbers you typically look for to assure yourself it's real. We're well past small sample size but I still don't trust it, and based on their leaving him off the playoff roster entirely clearly the team doesn't either. I will say Assad did pitch well in a less ambiguous way in '23. He was more of an actual swingman and also had more velo (~93 as a starter and approaching 95 in short relief). I don't know what it takes to get that velo back, was his issue this year simply the oblique killed his conditioning? But if he gets back to that higher velocity I'd be more comfortable handing him the ball in a game of consequence. Ultimately I think his fate is tied to Brown and Wicks. They each have minor league options so you dont *have* to do anything, but broadly my thought is with the three of them it's a choice of "bullpen one, trade one, stash the other at Iowa." Setting aside what they'd each return in trade IMO the clear preference is Brown in the pen, Wicks at Iowa, Assad traded. And a trade should actually bring back something nice? The market for back of the rotation SPs is popping off. Adrian Houser just got $11M (!?!). Assad, especially with his minor league options, should have some actual honest to god value.
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Not the dollars the options. An opt out this winter should be a non starter with any free agent of substance. The Cubs already have half their lineup and half their rotation heading into FA next winter.
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Yeah I think this is probably right. And if you want to doom boner Imai's age would be a pretty solid reason for Stearns to make him an exception to his blanket "be a hardass about years" policy.
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Cross the Astros off the list too, as they're $24M under the tax. Might be a threat if we shift focus to trades
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From The Athletic on the Phillies
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One thing I'll say on Gallen is I'm okay with it IF it's paired with something else on the position player side. Trueblood's article today made it sound like they want to do one signing and one trade and improve each side of the ball. I'm a bit circumspect about who that position player trade could even be, but I'm open minded.
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It really sounds like the Yankees are simply not in. Not that they are losing just that they're not in. If the Cubs don't get Imai I think it's going to be because the Giants' crying poor is a BS feint like the Padres' turned out to be, or that someone a little random and unexpected like the Tigers stepped up big to add him.
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****! I don't think MoccBomb has ever been right.
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FWIW Sharma and Mooney on their podcast indicated that the Cubs had started moving on from King around the winter meetings. Whether that's because they've gotten farther down the road with others, they didn't like the price (that post '26 opt out should realistically be a non starter for us), or King didn't wanna come here is TBD.
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Yeah this is good news. *Probably* takes the O's out on the caliber of pitcher we're trying to add. Also Caissie/Mo/Alcantara are all better (I'd argue significantly so) than anyone the O's gave up so there shouldn't be any worry that we don't have the prospect firepower if we go the trade route.
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I kind of wonder if they had to do this to afford Realmuto. They're at $300M after this and were at $315M last year.
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Ah boo Moon sounded fun Also does this mean the Padres have a Cronenworth deal lined up? Doesn't have to necessarily but feels like a weird luxury to spend on when you've got a full infield and you're running horsefeathering Gavin Sheets at 1B.
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I keep coming back to this. If the team signs a player for $25M+, then using our typical assumptions around payroll (i.e. they really don't want to pass the LT, and they're going to give themselves $10Mish heading into the season for breathing room) then they're basically tapped out. Roster resource has them $41M under the cap, Lop off 25 for a big signing, 10 for that rainy day fund, and you're left with basically just enough for a few tiny signings to round out the back of the roster. A reserve infielder and a couple relievers on split contracts? But I feel like there are have been a number of subtle indications that they've got a little more money to play with than normal. Not a ton, probably just an extra $15M or so. But you combine the various things we're hearing, plus the normal way the team operates (e.g. Jed wanting to bargain shop in January which is basically a meme at this point) and the math just doesn't math.
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I think we're a good ways away from *that*
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WTF I thought the Padres were broke? This might be problematic because it pulls an arm off the market without removing a (known) team.
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IF this makes it across the finish line and IF we hold our assumptions about payroll, the team would be mostly tapped out after this. There'd be enough for several $1-2M moves, presumably a backup infielder and several relievers, but that's about it. Would be curious to see if they'd indeed pack it in or if there'd be any substantial move(s) from there.
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Yeah I took it as the Yankees are out on Imai but will be doing something else of substance (Bellinger, I assume?) instead. Cashman is pretty good at that, last year I think he pivoted from Soto to Fried and Devin Williams within a few days.
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I know Dombrowski loves good starting pitching, and he's got the rings to get the benefit of the doubt, but man putting all your money towards another SP when your outfield is that bad would be a really questionable choice. If the Yankees are truly out I feel really good about the Cubs chances, though the Mets and Giants lurk. Mets claim they won't go a bunch of years and Giants are crying poor, but either could easily be a smokescreen.
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One of the lefties would be starting most days somewhere in the RF/DH mix. The other would, if I had my way, be traded for pitching. Long would hang out at Iowa and be the first injury callup in case a corner player gets hurt. On a lesser team Long could open next year in MLB, but here he'll have to settle for being high quality depth.
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Between minor league options and the fact none of these guys make significant money you shouldn't write it in pen, but presumably the bench for next year is: - Amaya - Austin - Alcantara - TBD reserve infielder With an opportunity for a Bregman signing to push Shaw into becoming that infielder. There's also an option to have the lesser of Mo/Caissie replace Alcantara, but that means Seiya is your backup in CF. I do not like that option, piss or get off the pot and commit to just one of them.
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My understanding is that in Japan Christmas and Christmas Eve are fairly big, while New Years is huge. So between that and the logistics of all this stuff I'd suspect it's fairly likely he signs by Christmas and it would be a major shock if he makes it through next weekend unsigned.
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Oh and for something less wishy washy this feels extremely unlikely to be paired with an Okamoto.
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Steamer has him with a 110 wRC+ against lefties. Pretty solid at this price. IMO the two reasons you'd do this: - You are planning to spend practically nothing on the offense - You are doing something pretty substantial on offense, but it doesn't provide any coverage at 1B So if you force me to tea leaf this makes me think an Imai or a Bregman are a little more likely while a Gallen or a King seem a little less likely.
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Cubs' Top Three Bullpen X-Factors In 2026
Bertz replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
Great article! I'm really hoping the team can help Little get his velocity back. He ended '24 with that shoulder injury, and I'm hoping that with a more normal offseason if strength and conditioning he can get back to sitting north of 95. A bit of a fun fact is that before this season Luke Little had not given up a professional homerun to a left handed hitter. Luke Little at full strength is at minimum absolute heat death against lefties, with his utility against righties probably depending on how much he can keep in the zone. I'm pretty full throated in my belief that Ben Brown's probably going to be a very good SP. That said I do want him to open next year in the bullpen in long relief. I suspect his issues as a SP are mostly confidence related, and once his feet are fully under him he will be a weapon. I'd let him earn leash until he's a high leverage long reliever (think Keegan Thompson at the height of his powers) which would be both insanely valuable for the 2026 Cubs and also set up Brown to grab a long term rotation spot heading into 2027. Hodge I'm hoping for a trajectory similar to what Palencia provided thia past year. Open the year in Iowa, be the first guy on the phone once a long term injury hits the big league pen, and be ready to come up and cement yourself.- 1 reply
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- luke little
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