Bertz

Why would they trade a guy they gave 1st round money to and had a phenomenal first season in the minors for Busch if they thought him and Mervis were more or less equivalent? Like people outside the org can make that argument sure, and maybe it's even correct, but it's completely clear the Cubs don't feel that way.

FWIW the draft pick for winning ROY only happens if the guy spends the whole year in MLB. So it's probably Busch/Wicks or bust on that standpoint. I can't see PCA opening the year in MLB if we pull down Bellinger, which looks increasingly inevitable. Most of this doesn't surprise me individually, it's moreso that one list includes nearly everyone you could reasonably argue onto the list, about as high as you could reasonably argue them. And Brown/Rojas, the two closest things to omissions, were as you pointed out just barely left off. The Ballesteros defensive stuff is the one thing that does really surprise me. I LOOOOOOOOVVVVVVVVEEEEEEE the bat. If you could promise me he'd be an average defensive catcher he'd be my easy #1 prospect in the system. So to see Seidler express what I'd describe as cautious pessimism is still far more optimistic than I expected.

After skipping Iowa the first time no less!

Aside from Mervis, who it's really clear the org doesn't think much of, who's the last prospect to spend extended time in Iowa even if they were producing?

This is incredible

Didn't the Cubs also have that preposterous long streak of not getting shut out? I remember Sharma putting some decent data around I think it was the 2019 team and how they were beyond the pale, but the vast vast majority of the time this stuff comes out in the wash.

I'm not a big fan of BA anymore but still good to see.

Stanek and Ottavino are a big step down from those other guys. I would not be happy with them if they're the big RP get, even though I like them in a vacuum. Wonder if Almonte more or less didn't count and the plan is still 2 more relievers from here. Because of those 5 names Hader and Clase are in one tier, Stephenson is a step down from that, and Stanek/Ottavino are another down from that.

Every team thinks their team's offense is too streaky. It's just baseball.

Like others I don't know that I love Karinchak specifically, but I do think Mervis going out in a deal for relief help makes a lot of sense. I also think, depending on the bats that get brought in, you could argue Wisdom makes a similar amount of sense.

Horton at 3

I've been thinking a lot about 3B the last few days, and I've been thinking about it in the context of TT's great point about not having a set lineup. and I've been thinking about Jed emphasizing the team's needs as an ability to hit RHP instead of a specific position or two. My guess is the team is going to run Madrigal out there as the primary 3B, but that they're comfortable with another one of the options getting significant time if things break a certain way. Probably Busch, Jed talked up his versatility and IMO his ability to fake it as a 2B has zero utility for this team. He'd be like, 6th on the depth chart? "Versatility" has pretty much got to allude to his 3B experience. So what's the plan? It's to acquire Bellinger and another bat. And I do mean bat The primary consideration with this guy is offense. Jed wants someone who can compliment the current set of hitters, and if he plays 1B or 3B or something that's a bonus. I kind of like Justin Turner. Minimal splits, pretty much the platonic ideal of a "professional hitter" which compliments Wisdom/Morel, and he is an emergency option at 3rd. Age is an obvious concern but on a 1 year deal shouldn't be the end of the world. So what you've got is half of your lineup is set. Happ, Seiya, Swanson, and Hoerner all play every day at the positions you generally expect. The catchers have a timeshare, but it's based on rest and pitchers not offense. CF, 3B, 1B, and DH though vary wild day by day. Bellinger plays everyday, but where he plays depends on matchups. The other three spots depend on the day. Steele's pitching? We want Madrigal and Bellinger manning the infield corners to max out defense. Opposing pitcher is a sinkerballer? Let's get Wisdom and Morel in there. Etc. This also lets you fold the kids in as they're ready. Put them into the rotation and break them in with optimal matchups.

Yeah I think if you want to pile onto the rotation I'd do a trade rather than a signing. I think Snell and Jesus Luzardo are pretty comparable levels of impact, and I'd much rather spend the prospect capital on the latter right now. That said it's wild that everyone is so terrified of Snell. It's very similar to Matt Chapman where because of the objectively crappy aesthetics of his playing style fans are convinced he's much worse than he actually is. There's also this dumb thing where people can't separate lucky and bad. Blake Snell was very lucky last year. But he was still quite good, just lucky on top of it.

Kind of like Fangraphs was for a few years I imagine this will be the high water mark amongst publications, but still wow. Especially notable that all of these guys have at least gotten their feet wet in AA. Any of them is reasonably liable to impact 2024, even if it's not the mean outcome. Jed also really needs to consolidate a bunch of this in a big trade next winter. I understand holding off now, but in a year we should have a much better idea of where attrition has hit and who is redundant.

Yeah Moncada's salary is disqualifying. You'd need to get him down way further than is realistically going to happen for me to have interest. On top of that, he doesn't have a carrying skill you can lean on. He's not a great glove, he's not super platoonable (and to the extent he is he's a short side guy), he's not like Wisdom where he eats certain pitch types and locations alive, etc.

One of the previews I saw, I think Lance Brozdowski's YouTube video, threw up a heatmap of Stuff+ by velocity and ride and said that Imanaga’s fast ball would he equivalent to one thrown 97 with more vanilla movement profile. It is absolutely top of the scale movement. And we've all seen with Steele how much that can matter. Peralta and Heaney are good comps on the fastball, I believe Eric Lauer is another. Nestor Cortes is the comp that I saw most often, apparently he has the single most similar fastball to Shota, and unlike some of the other names thrown out also is a plus command guy. Cortes got blown up this year (shoulder injury), but was a star the two years prior.

Counsell himself had a line like this at the winter meetings. "Solving for wins" I think it was. But yeah I definitely think we see more specialized lineups. One thing the Brewers always did that stuck out to me was leaning hard on the platoon advantage. I remember in '21 when against Alzolay essentially every flyball from a LHH was going over the fence he put like 7 lefties in the lineup. They did the same thing to Wesneski this year. Ross was certainly not bad about playing the matchups, like I thought he did a great job of stuff deploying Wisdom for instance, but I agree that I expect it to be turned up to 11 this year. It's ironic, the fans who most loudly clamored for Ross to go are the same ones who are going to throw the major temper tantrums when this happens.

I expect something close to the conservative approach you laid out. I do think there's maybe a chance of that 2nd non-Bellinger bat being more exciting than we expect? I also think, aside from that high end reliever, any addition pitching reinforcements are going to have to be minor league optionable. Like there's a certain point where the roster spot is more valuable than the player, and I think after that high end guy we're there on the pitching staff. Like do we really need another dedicated veteran swingman when we have Smyly and Assad already ticketed for the pen? Would a LOOGY like e.g. Brad Hand really be worth the roster spot, or would he just be in the way like Brad Boxberger was last year?

Yeah they were asked pretty point blank about Morel's position, twice, and mostly hemmed and hawed. I would guess they try 3B in the spring but no one's especially confident in it working. I'd guess one of two things for 3B: 1. They like Madrigal as an everyday option more than the fans (not totally unreasonable) and also are comfortable with one of the other internal options during Madrigal's bi-annual IL trips. Possibly even Busch given the talk about his versatility 2. They plan to acquire an everyday, or at least everyday-ish, 3B option. JD Davis maybe? He has an 117 wRC+ against righties over the last 3 years. Bonus is that he's a lowball hitter and should compliment Madrigal. Giants seem like tbe favorites for Matt Chapman, and Davis is very superfluous from there

Thought this was interesting re: Morel

It's not that complicated. The team came into the offseason with we think something like $60-70M to spend. The team had three glaring holes: a starting pitcher, a late inning reliever, and 1B. There is/were four lesser holes: 3B, CF, a second SP, and a second RP. It appears the team intends on filling 5 or 6 of those 7 holes. Given the youths we have on hand and the exorbitant prices on the market, it's not crazy to forgo the second SP so that you can throw more resources elsewhere.

The team is going to want some quality options stashed at Iowa. Part of the problem last year was that attrition hit Iowa pretty hard and then there was no one besides Palencia/Little to come up when the MLB pen was struggling. I'd expect the pen to look like this CL - Alzolay SU - Merryweather, TBD acquisition MR - Leiter*, Almonte, Cuas* LR - Smyly, Assad* The guys with asterisks are not set in stone Leiter - Needs to show out in spring training. If he doesn't he's likely to be cut a la Wicks last year Cuas - He has minor league options, so he needs to look better than Palenci/Little/etc. Assad - He's got possibility of being promoted out of this role to the rotation, getting passed up by Wesneski, or doing enough to earn a job but having Counsell decide he doesn't want two long guys. We know Ross would build the entire pen out of long relievers if he could but Counsell has historically leaned more on 1 IP types

That really points to the next reliever being closer-caliber (even if they have a shorter track record like Stephenson). Great to hear.